Dette er en egen tråd om den danske masteroppgaven da jeg synes den fortjener det. Dette gir nok den beste oversikten over Intex for de som er interessert. Jeg har lest igjennom mer nøye nå i helgen og limt inn noen av de viktigste punktene.

http://studenttheses.cbs.dk/handle/10417/3743

http://studenttheses.cbs.dk/bitstream/handle/10417/3743/johannes_brun_johansson.pdf?sequence=1

Masteroppgaven konkluderer med en pris for Intex på NOK 16.64. Hvordan kan man komme frem til en så høy verdi?

Side 3:
"The primary asset of Intex, the Mindoro project, has potential to become one of the most valuable nickel operations in the world. Because of an innovative design which allows for extraction of nickel from limonite and saprolite ore in the same process in conjunction with internal energy generation, the project has potential to become one of the most cost effective nickel operations in the world."

"It was found that the theoretical fair share price of Intex was NOK 16.64 per share. The price is considerably higher than the market price which was NOK 3.89 per share at the cutoff date. The theoretical share price is considered reasonable, since it takes the fundamental value from the Mindoro project into consideration, which the market has failed to do."

Side 41:
“Beyond forecasting the price of nickel, the supply/demand analysis also establishes the need for the Mindoro project. While the potential supply over the next six to eight years is significant, the potential growth of nickel supply is limited beyond 2020. There are very few new projects with projected start- up date beyond 2016, and even if one assumes several corporations have committed exploration towards nickel, because of the long time it takes for a mine to become operational, projects like Mindoro will need to be completed in order to lessen the supply deficit which will start to grow by 2020.”

Side 72:
” Based on the DCF analysis, the Mindoro project has a NPV of US$ 654 million, which is a value of 41.52 NOK per share. However, since Intex will only retain a 10% free carried interest of the project along with US$ 180 million cash from sale of 90% stake, the true value of the project for Intex is US$ 245.4 million, which is NOK 15.58 per share. Adding in the book value per share of the Hurdal deposit as well as the current cash or cash equivalent, we obtain the fair share value of Intex as NOK 16.64 per share.”

Side 76:
“The theoretical price of NOK 16.64 represents a price increase of 328% over the market price of NOK 3.89. While such a large price divergence may at first seem improbable, it is important to remember what the theoretical share price represents. The theoretical price focuses on the fundamental value which Intex will derive from the sale of the 90% stake along with 10% of the NPV from a fully operational Mindoro operation. The theoretical share price represent a long-run13 price increase, since the theoretical share price of NOK 16.64 is dependent upon the future revenue from the Mindoro project.


It has been shown that stocks with significant media and analyst coverage tend to trade much closer to its fundamental value. Conversely, stocks with a lack of coverage tend to trade further away from their fundamental value. As a result, returns tend to be higher from stocks with little coverage as the return will react more once news regarding their operations is released (Klibanoff, Lamont & Wizman, 1998 Fang & Peress, 2009). At present, media and analyst coverage of Intex is very low, and thus among most non-institutional investors, in-depth knowledge of Intex and its potential value is likely small. “

Side 78
“The future looks bright for Intex shareholder.”

“The strategic analysis showed that the Mindoro project, while not free from issues, is a very valuable project. The expected demand growth of nickel ensures that nickel projects the size of Mindoro will be sought after. In comparison to the rest of the industry, the high production volumes, low Opex due to the project generating its own energy as well as the LME refinery ensures there will be a large market for their product.”

Side 79
“Because of this, the Philippine government is likely to promote the Mindoro project since in comparison to other mining operations the Mindoro project brings greater economic benefits to the Philippines through keeping the final value-additive step domestic along with the jobs created by the project.”
The resulting DCF analysis found that the theoretical share price of Intex is NOK 16.64 per share. The large divergence between the theoretical price and the current market price is likely due to failure of the market in accounting for the upside risk of Intex, i.e. the fundamental value of the Mindoro project.”

Side 81
“As a result, the upside risk far outweigh the downside risk, and the recommended investment strategy of Intex share is to BUY share of Intex. The buy recommendation is based on a short-run price target of NOK 12.49 per share from sale of Mindoro and long-run price target of NOK 16.64 per share based on the final completion and commission of the Mindoro project.”