Pareto kom idag med sin kvartalsanalyse for sjømatsektoren, og oppgraderer kursmålene for samtlige.
Topp anbefalingen er LSG, AUSS og GSF med 38 %, 34 % og 28 % oppside.
NRS får holdanbefaling med kursmål 169.

Jeg limer inn kortversjonen av den 78 siders rapporten:

"Research Report - 25 Oct 2016
Sector: Seafood
Analysts Henning Lund, Carl-Emil Kjølås Johannessen
Upgrade on Chilean outlook

After visiting most of the Chilean salmon farming companies last week, we are more optimistic on a more sustainable Chilean salmon industry, which will have limited supply growth the next 5 years, but significantly improved cash flow. We downgrade supply from Norway going forward, increase supply from Chile (but with much higher conviction) and we upgrade our salmon price estimates from NOK 57 and 59 to NOK 59 and 61 for 2017 and 2018 respectively. We also upgrade cost estimates, as costs are flip side of low supply growth. We upgrade all target prices as we now use 12x 2017e and 11x 2018e earnings to determine target price. Our top picks are LSG, AUSS, GSF and MHG. We also upgrade Salmar and Bakkafrost to Buy.

We see Chile in a different light

We have been to Chile many times, but this time we heard something we have not heard before. None of the companies we met are planning to grow the next years. Instead they will focus on the (high) operational cost and lowering the biological risk. But many expressed concerns that the industry might grow more than what’s good for the biology and the market. This is exactly the opposite of what we have heard from Chilean players before.

The new regulation makes growth expensive

Most of the players are frustrated over the new regulation, however they all agreed that growth will be very expensive and that the regulation will reduce growth. We expect around 6% supply growth from Chile in 2017e. The farmers we met represent more than 70% of the capacity in Chile and the accumulated growth indicated from these companies is 6% in 2017e

Norwegian cost is increasing and growth is far away

As mechanical sea lice treatment is causing cost increase and yield decrease we see very limited growth opportunities for Norwegian farmers going forward. We expect feed sales to confirm that in the coming months.

Prices are higher and visibility is clearer than ever

We upgrade all target prices on higher salmon price expectations and higher EPS as valuation metrics. We now use 12x 2017e and 11x 2018e EPS to determine our target prices.

LSG and AUSS top picks, MHG, SALM and BAKKA back on Buy

We rate LSG and AUSS as our top picks, and still find significant upside in GSF."