Meglerhuss fortsatt bull

pebl
LSG 11.11.2016 kl 07:37 436

Pareto:

Unjustified discount to peers

Lerøy delivered a soft quarter with an EBIT adj. of NOK 481m vs consensus at NOK 713m and PAS estimates of NOK 641m. The weaker result is driven by lower volumes and weak margins in Lerøy Mid. We reduce our estimates mostly due to lower than expected volumes guidance for both 2016e and 2017e. We lower our target price from NOK 588 to NOK 576 and reiterate our Buy recommendation.

Soft Q3
LSG delivered an all-inclusive margin of NOK 15.2/kg, which was below our estimate of NOK 18.4/kg. The weaker margin is mainly due to the NOK 8/kg margin in Lerøy Mid, impacted by significant sea lice issues leading to harvesting of small fish. The harvest volume of 31.7 ktonnes in Q3, which was below our estimate of 34.8 ktonnes, also impacts the result negatively.

Estimates down on lower volumes
We reduce our volume estimates for 2016e-2018e due to lower than expected 2016e and 2017e volumes guidance from the company. We reduce our 2016e margins due to the soft report, but make limited changes to our 2017-2018 margin estimates. We increase our estimates for Havfisk slightly due to higher saithe quotas for 2017.

TP down, Buy reiterated
We base our target price on 12x 16e and 11x 17e EPS. For LSG we include a 5% premium due to the size of the company and diversified earnings. Based on our estimate changes we reduce our target price from NOK 588 to NOK 576 and reiterate our Buy recommendation.



DNB:

I et ellers positivt marked ble det en negativ reaksjon på Q3-rapporten fra Lerøy Seafoods i går. Både samlet volum for konsernet og marginen for virksomheten i Midt-Norge lå betydelig under våre estimater og under konsensus. Utfordringene med lakselus i Midt-Norge medførte høyere kostnader enn ventet og kursen stengte dermed ned 2% på NOK 426.10 pr aksje. På den annen side bidro Havfisk med bedre underliggende tallene enn ventet. Vi har tatt estimert EPS for 2016 ned med 6%, mens tilsvarende estimat for 2017 er tatt ned med 2%. Kursmålet er justert fra NOK 500 til NOK 495 pr aksje og vi opprettholder en kjøpsanbefaling.
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