Olje

Flipper
25.11.2018 kl 16:30 2215

Sabla godt innlegg på diskusjons forum i Uniten, Energy Board Investment board.

Re: Gluts take time to work off

I think there are a couple of points here in no particular order.

1) I think people underestimate just how good for the Saudis/et this periodic freakout is as it doesn't affect there planning or operations anything like their public competition.

2) I think the "glut" we are talking about here is one largely created out of a mismatch of GCC nations pushing Iranian replacement barrels not all of which were needed

3) I think the US had one heck of a maintenance season, especially mid con.

4) I bought my first producers since April recently (CJ.to and CPG) based solely on the fact that even at 50$ oil, their real problem is a differential blowout which is so severe now there were big protests against a Canadian PM over it (which is kinda new in my experience). I think a combination of factors works this down to where its not hurting the government as much within 6 months or a year. These stock are all far lower than when oil worldwide and structurally was thought to be 30$ for the foreseeable future.

5) I think people do not count around here enough the impact of the speculative positioning which is now by far the biggest short-term mover in the markets, creating or destroying via "virtual" means millions of barrels a day of supply. Now we can all sit around and argue about the long-term effects of allowing this and how insane it is....but it is what it is. The speculative positions as of Friday is essentially exhausted (won't see WTI numbers till Monday but Brent spec longs are at a 3 year low, options have disintegrated) and its going to become much harder now to push the price down because you don't have fake millions of barrels weighing on it.

6) in 2016 oil cratered because the Saudi/GCC gang said quite openly we will crush you. They are now saying just as clearly we will NOT crush you.

Overall I have really been buying very heavily since the 4$ crack and basically, put most of my remaining speculative cash to work this past holiday week (mostly in smashed MLPS). all scenarios but a 2008 systemic meltdown have been priced into those IMO. Even stranger, very few of the MLPS are purely oil depended and many are actually a little more NG than oil. NG is absolutely booming in the US.... Now we will see how it plays out.

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