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10.02.2021 kl 10:20 3016

SB1M initierer dekning med kjøpsanbefaling og kursmål på NOK 65.

We initiate coverage of Nordic Unmanned (NUMND) with a Buy recommendation and NOK 65 target price. We believe the company is perfectly positioned for the ongoing commercial drone megatrend. The European drone market is expected to double to USD 10bn by 2025, equal to 14% CAGR. The military has utilized drones for many years, while commercial drone applications are relatively new. The commercial segment is expected to see the strongest growth going forward, as drones are greener, cheaper and safer than legacy solutions. We expect EBITDA will grow from NOK 3m in 2020 to NOK 44m/88m in 2021/22, both from higher revenues and margins. Current estimates are supported by a solid backlog and a huge pipeline, which also provide upside potential to estimates. EV/EBITDA stands at 9.5x/8.9x for 2022/23, which we find attractive based on the strong growth outlook and relevant peers trading at an average of 15x for 2022. Our NOK 65 target price equals 15x EV/EBITDA for 2022, in line with the peer average. SB1

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