Olje og energi

MarketGunsling
19.01.2022 kl 10:52 3133

BMU – I agree with you absolutely. We all know that Tilapia is the game-changer for Zenith but none of us, including magnagement it appears, know when it is coming. However, I think that it is very unfair to claim that Zenith are just sitting around and waiting for Tilapia to come as they have in fact doing everything that you suggest for the last year.


They bought:

Ezzaouia on March 15th 2021
Robbanna and El Bibane on 30th April 2021
They did the workover of Rob-1 in October 25th 2021
They acquired SLK from CNPC on November 22nd
They signed the option for OML141 on November 29th


This has meant that we are getting a production of:

a) 209 bopd from the 45% share of Ezzaouia
b) 120 bopd from Robanna post workover.
c) 100 bopd from EBB-5 at El Bibane
d) 113 bopd from the 22.5% share of SLK

In total we are getting approx. 542 bopd from Tunisia and at the moment this is worth a gross revenue of about $17 million per year and (assuming costs are approc $25 per barrel) a net revenue of approx. $12 million per annum.


Assuming that we complete the other half of the SLK deal (for which we already have the money raised) then this will further increase to 655 bopd and a net revenue of $12 million per annum.

We also know that Zenith have every intention of also increasing production in Tunisia. They have spelled out their plans there as follows:

a) Drilling of the ROB-3 – which is due to be drilled in January or February and target total Robbana production of 500bopd. This will come at a cost of £600,000 which is already fully funded out of the £3 million raised on November 2nd 2021.
b) Drilling of 2 sidetracks and 3 workovers in Ezzaouia which are also to be drilled in Jan/Feb and are targeting an increase in production of approximately 800bopd. This will come at a cost of £1.3 million and is also fully funded from the £3 million raising.

Supposing that both these drill targets and the acquisition of SLK are successfully carried out then we would be looking at production in Tunisia of:

a) 226 bopd from the 45% share of SLK
b) 500 bopd from Robanna post ROB-3
c) 500 bopd from the 45% share of Ezzaouia
d) 100 bopd from EBB-5 at El Bibane

This would give us a total production of 1,326 bopd and a net revenue of approx. $30 million per annum at today’s oil prices.

But we also know that Zenith intend to make further acquisitions in Tunisia, both because Andrea has mentioned this in a number of the investor conference calls and also from the comments made by Luca Benedetto in December when the company announced that they have set up a €3 million debt facility with Winance for the specific purpose of making acquisitions in Tunisia. https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ZEN/loan-for-african-development-9tctgh9fm0bwdfq.html

This is all without even looking at the potential Nigerian acquisition of OML141. So while it is fair to criticise the wait for Tilapia it is completely unfair to criticise the company for doing nothing in this time period as they have actually been really busy over the last year and appear to be about to be really busy in this quarter.

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