28.03.2019 kl 06:36 3958

SB1M oppdaterte sitt syn på Kitron, etter Q tall. Ikke sikkert alle har fått det med seg. Hyggelig lesning ihvertfall. :-))

Buy ahead of potential trigger lining up next week with CMD the 21th of March

As mentioned in our initiation report from October 2018, “Look forward to the three musketeers”, we argued the upcoming CMD was a key trigger to our Buy and NOK11.5 target price. Now, we are closely approaching the CMD, which takes place the 21th of March and would like to take the opportunity to highlight what to look for. First, positive comments on normalized component situation, which will release significant working capital in 2019, 2) double digit revenue growth going forward on the back of i) defense, ii) industry and ii) recovery in oil service and reiterated normalized EBIT margin of 7% over the cycle in the next guidance period. The two latter is not included in our estimates, and will as such provide support and upside to our investment case. Finally, if positive guidance, what target price does our model provide?

Over the last couple of quarters, KIT has increased its working capital base significantly (inventory build-up) in order to handle the ongoing component shortage and potentially an escalation of the situation and to be able to secure growth and deliver on its production in 1H19. The question is, will this continue or escalate? KIT was not especially forward leaning at the 4Q18 presentation and I quote: “component availability have continued to be an issue…the availability situation now seems to have stabilised and we start to see shorter lead-times”.
However, if we look to Swedish HMS Networks 4Q18 report, we can read that; “In our third quarter report, we described that the previously strained situation regarding component shortages has brightened. The improvement trend has continued and we do not predict that this will cause problems for HMS’s delivery capacity in 2019, since we have built up buffer stocks and due to the fact that accessibility of components seems to be normalized in the future”.

Assuming normalized working capital (21% of sales), this will on a trailing 12m basis as of 4Q18 release NOK230m or ~NOK1.3 per share, which correspond to close to 15% of the current share price.

In 2016, Kitron outlined a growth path of 10% per year, bringing total revenue to NOK3bn by 2020. Management has delivered on its targets, and with 2018 revenues of +NOK2.6bn (slightly above the middle of the NOK2.5bn to NOK2.7bn range), the 2020 target looks more than achievable. Moreover, management has expressed a target EBIT margin of 7%, which is ambitious in the EMS sector. Still, by focusing on service sales and increasing production in low cost countries, KIT did manage to increase the operating profit margin to 6.2% in 2018 (adjusted for NOK6.7m related to the acquisition in the US), within the guided range of 6.1-6.5% (6% incl. M&A cost).
Below, we have outlined our current revenue growth and EBIT margin estimates in KIT. On the CMD, we believe the company will outline targets towards 2024 or 2025 and based on 1) the current strong performance in industry, which has led the company to open production plants in Poland, 2) rebound in oil and oil service in the order backlog and recent contract announcements within this space and 3) underinvestment’s in defense/aerospace, we argue there is attractive probability that the company will reiterate its double-digit growth CAGR towards 2024/2025. This represent an upside to our current revenue growth estimates. Moreover, in a previous note we calculated that Norway operated at below 70% utilization, which explained the dilutive EBIT margin (~4.5%). However, with increased defense/aerospace orders, among other supported by the JSM contract with KOG in Japan and oil and oil service recovery (i.e. Magseis), we argue revenue growth in Norway will be accretive to the guidance, and as such, EBIT margin will improve with increased utilization. Moreover, Lithuania is currently operating at 90% utilization and delivering EBIT margins at 8.5-9%, and with increase capacity in a similar region with Poland, we argue Kitron will have another leg with accretive EBIT margins in the period 2020-2025. As such, we argue there is also a high probability that KIT will reiterate its 7% EBIT margin over a cycle until 2025. This will also represent an upside to our current estimates.

As outlined below, our current assumption is 6% over the cycle EBIT margin and on the back of this, we arrive at 11.5-NOK12 per share. However, let us make two assumptions. First, KIT guides for 10% revenue CAGR until 2025 on the back of mid-guidance for 2019 at NOK3.050m and reiterate its 7% EBIT margin over a cycle. Second assumption is that we believe in the guidance. With this cocktail of figures, what is then KIT worth?
From 2020 with 10% growth, we arrive at NOK5.5bn in revenues in 2025. At 7% EBIT margin and 12x EV/EBIT (normalized over the cycle EV/EBIT), we arrive at EV of NOK4.6bn. NIBD in 2025 in our model is NOK183m. Discounted back at 8% cost of equity we arrive at NOK16 per share. If we include accumulated DPS and FCFE (excl. DPS) in the period, we arrive at NOK22 per share. Bottom line, in this scenario, the upside is +100%.

Best regards
Petter Kongslie
Equity Analyst"

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