Transport

Computum
23.05.2019 kl 16:42 1474

Pareto har kursmål kr. 100,- (07.05)

"Norwegian Air Shuttle released stellar April traffic figures – with a substantial yield and load factor hike. The RASK (load factor adjusted yield) was up 22% y/y vs. our 11% estimate, on +18% y/y yield (NOK 0.41) supported by Easter and the SAS pilot strike - exceeding our NOK 0.37 estimate (+6% y/y). Solid demand pushed the load factor up 3.1pp y/y to 86.1%, vs. our 86.5% estimate. While Easter make y/y comparison challenging, the period March-April still reflects an 6.9% yield growth and +1.8pp higher load factor. For long-haul, capacity increased by 19% y/y and the load factor rose 4pp y/y to ~88%. Finally, punctuality improved by 2.1pp y/y, while regularity only down 0.5pp y/y to 98.9%. In total, passenger revenues amounted to NOK 3,057m, up 30% y/y on 9% capacity growth, some 8% above our NOK 2,837m estimate. The impact on EBITDA for April is estimated to ~NOK 200m, or NOK 1.3/share). Perhaps more important, booking into May should also be solid and hence fuel traffic demand. Overall, the traffic report implies that estimates should increase. We have a Buy recommendation and target price of NOK 100 for NAS."

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