Shipping

OB
08.07.2019 kl 21:18 2936

Starting with a disclosure: I own a lot of Avance and quite some BW LPG. No Dorian at the moment as I simply get more cbm/money when investing in Avance and BW. Actually a lot more. Put in another way, more leverage due to several factors, debt being only one.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4273853-case-lpg-shippings-bull-market

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4273899-dorian-lpg-potential-major-shareholder-returns-due-surging-rates

Getting a combo of the fundamentals in US LPG export growth (ton miles) in H2 2019 AND IMO2020/ballast water ongoing is very interesting to me. Personally I think these stocks, all three of them, have a long way to run. Worth repeating that Avance does over 90 cents US in cashflow in a single quarter at current rates of 65k usd/day. Getting a single quarter like that transforms the company and the reports are that right now we are seeing the liftings for August being done here, July is already booked. Combine that with return trips US - FE of 60 days. Q2 will be a nice quarter (averaging a bit over 30k for Avance) but Q3 which is put in place now will be absolutely massive. And we will get informed about that in exactly the same way we were informed about Q2 in the Q1 report. Well... probably alot of explaining words that help the more lazy investors to understand what is actually going on both when it comes to US export growth and what the rates actually mean for cashflow for the three companies. It will be fun.
Redigert 08.07.2019 kl 21:26

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