På oppfordring fra Flipper starter jeg en ny tank-tråd siden contangotråden var lang og vanskelig å navigere i. Contango er ikke lenger det mest aktuelle for tankmarkedet heller, selv om det fort kan komme tilbake.

Naturlig å starte denne tråden med Cleaves Tanker-rapport som kom for få minutter siden hvor han nedgraderer hele sektoren til selg. Det lå i kortene etter at han nedgraderte OET til tross for at de slo alle hans forventninger.

Hele rapporten kan leses her: https://5f38c3be-c80e-4113-8699-341bc56851e6.usrfiles.com/ugd/5f38c3_50cd97b835c54a35a5b6b967577b4318.pdf

Han tegner et dystert bilde for de neste to årene. Her er innledningen:

After a period of incredible earnings, Oil Tanker spot rates have now collapsed from the peaks of March/April. We remain pessimistic towards 2H20 and beyond and now transition to trough pricing of the Oil Tanker segment. As we think the new reality will inevitable dawn on investors, we further downgrade the segment to SELL (from HOLD)

Market: As we alluded to when we downgraded the Oil Tanker segment to HOLD (from BUY) 13 April, the imminent rout in oil supply left floating storage the only element supporting demand for Oil Tankers. The oil market is rebalancing even sooner than we had expected, with the deteriorating contango in the oil price futures curve by large removing floating storage as an option over the course of only one month. The new reality is a large fall in demand for oil transportation with the upcoming inventory destocking cycle adding to shipowners’ woes. The only thing saving Oil Tankers from potentially the worst down-cycle in many decades is the lowest orderbook since 1996. Thus, we expect that a strong rebound in Oil Tanker demand in 2023E against a very low fleet growth could push earnings into super-cycle territory.

Investments: With both the short- and medium-term outlook looking bleak, we transition to trough pricing which is based on: 1] An expected ~20% asset value depreciation, 2] cash-flow ahead of the expected trough and 3] a historical discount to trough-NAV. We calculate an average 31-32% downside to our covered Oil Tanker companies using several different methods. The only company not receiving a SELL rating is ADS Crude Carriers (HOLD/N22) which has a low elasticity towards falling asset prices and is already priced quite low. We see the biggest downside in Nordic American Tankers (SELL/$1.6).