Her er det bare å fylle glasset. Tror vi snart passerer 100

SA 2Takk det samme.

??

Sa2ri
Mange tak for alle de gode informationer/ indlæg du servicerer os med. Jeg er forholdsvis ny her på GOGL tråde og oplever kvaliteten af information og tonen her som noget af det bedste jeg har oplevet på HO gennem mere end 10 år.
God weekend

Bulk report – Week 39
28 September 2018

Capesize
A stop-start market for the big ships with many expectations and few fulfilled. Holidays curtailed trading early in the week, but the C5 route regained some ground with rates in excess of the mid-$7.00s for 11 October onwards, although, bunker values also rose sharply last week. Owners remained optimistic, wanting $8.00 as the week closed out, with some suggesting it had been done. Timecharter trading was less prevalent, with rates ranging from $15,000 to the low $17,000s for Australian round voyages, with the rate dependent on how well the ship was described. Brazil was expected to be active, but again fixing was piecemeal, with rates for mid-late October still under $21.00 for Qingdao discharge. Further north, talk focussed on a tightening supply of tonnage, with rumours dominating the market of sharply higher rates agreed, but not always confirmed as fixed. There were various rumours of over $20,000 daily for transatlantic rates and some suggesting the Puerto Bolivar/Rotterdam route was in excess of $10.00 and heading towards $10.50.

Panamax
Despite the disruption due to the holidays in the East at the start of the week, rates have improved everywhere ahead of further holidays this week. The Pacific has been well supported by mineral trades, especially into India, with South America adding fuel to the flames as owners in the South were able to fix on a DOP basis. A well described Kamsarmax achieved $17,000 daily basis Singapore delivery for a South American round. The Atlantic was busy from the start of the week, with a shortage of tonnage from the Mediterranean, with Kamsarmaxes achieving $15,500 to $16,000 for longer grain rounds which were similar levels to the shorter coal trips in the North. There was also a number of front haul stems from St Lawrence to China covered at around $23,000 daily from Continent deliveries. Period activity was sporadic as charterers considered the effect of this week’s holidays.

Supramax
Overall a positive week for the BSI with gains made from key areas. Period activity remained, with a 56,000dwt fixed delivery Kandla for three to five months trading at $13,500.

The Atlantic saw better demand from the US Gulf, Mediterranean and South Atlantic regions, with a 52,000dwt being covered from the US Gulf to the East at $24,000. In the Mediterranean, a 60,000dwt was fixed delivery for a Canakkale trip via the Black Sea, redelivery Chittagong, at $24,000. Demand remained from Brazil, with charterers seeing improved values for Ultramaxes on the back of strong rates for Panamaxes, with a 63,000dwt covered in the upper $15,000s plus upper $500,000 ballast bonus.

With holidays last week and imminent holidays this week, the market remained relatively firm. A 56,000dwt fixed delivery for a Surabaya trip with redelivery to west coast India at $13,500. More demand was seen from the Indian Ocean, with a 55,000dwt fixed delivery Durban for an early October trip, redelivery CJK-Japan, at $13,700 plus $370,000 ballast bonus.

Handysize
Like the larger sizes, it was a more positive week for the BSHI, with gains made across many routes. Some period activity surfaced, with a 32,000dwt fixed from the Continent for three to five months, trading redelivery to the Atlantic in the mid $10,000s. The Atlantic saw upward pressure from the US Gulf, with brokers suggesting a tightening in tonnage supply was pushing rates higher. From East coast South America, demand remained, as a 37,600dwt fixed delivery Santos for a trip via the Plate to the Baltic in the mid to upper $15,000s. As the week came to an end some suggested a slight easing of demand from the Mediterranean, but few fixtures were disclosed.

With the upcoming holidays in the Asian market, brokers advised little activity evident towards the end of the working week. A 37,000-dwt was reported fixed for two laden legs delivery Indonesia, redelivery Singapore-Japan, but many were waiting to how see how the market will progress in the coming days.

For daily dry bulk assessments from the Baltic Exchange please visit www.balticexchange.com/market-information/

http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-39-3/

Ønsker med dette alle en riktig god helg.

Håper vi ser $30k utover høsten. Da blir det penger!

NOK 120+ i kursmål fra SEB gir en temmelig pen oppside for de som vurderer å gå inn/laste mer. Jeg sitter helt stille og venter på NOK 140.

Ser bra ut i Kina i dag. Et par prosent opp der på Iron Ore indexen :-)

Da får vi håpe på en god rateoppdatering i ettermiddag!

Moro at stadig flere og flere meglerhus kommer diltende etter.

2018-09-28 10:29:40 CET
GOGL:SEB OPPGRADERER TIL KJØP, HØYNER KURSMÅL TIL USD 15,0 (8,3)
Oslo (TDN Direkt): SEB oppgraderer anbefalingen på Golden Ocean-aksjen til kjøp fra selg, og høyner kursmålet til 15 dollar, fra tidligere 8,3 dollar, ifølge en oppdatering fredag.

"Det sterke antiforurensningsstandpunktet fra kinesiske myndigheter presser stålmøllene og utilities-selskapene til å bruke mer importert jernmalm og kull. Vi venter at den høye kullimporten vil fluktuere, men at jernmalmimporten vil øke stødig. Tørrbulkordreboken er begrenset, kapasiteten vill falle videre når IMO2020 insentiverer sakte seiling", skriver meglerhuset, som har økt sine utnyttelsesgrad og fraktestimater.

HH, finans@tdn.no
TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

Tja, er jo fredag, som forresten ser ut til å bli go' dagen i bulk fremover. Sjekke de siste 3 fredagene.

Opptatt i kveld, men får vel ta med fruen på en bedre middag i morgen kveld, inkludert årgangsvin :-)


Helt "greit" volum den første timen også. Mange som har det travelt med å komme inne nå (sent men godt).....

@kubota: Er du inne igjen?

Mener alt ligger til rette for å nå gamle høyder. Passerer 100 før nyttår

Blir vel aargangsvin i dag, Kjepet ?

Det ser ut til at vi skal "tygge" oss gjennom 80-nivået i dag, kanskje til og med over 81. Det er bare å nyte ferden, og samtidig rette en takk til SEB som etter sigende har tatt opp GOGL til kjøp.

Coal freight rates face 20-40% hike from 2020 – WoodMac
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 28/09/2018

Looming restrictions on shipping fuel sulphur content could see freight rates on seaborne coal routes rise by as much as 40% in 2020, consultancy Wood Mackenzie said on Thursday.

“Coal companies relying on ocean transport should brace for increased voyage rates,” said Anthony Knutson, principal analyst for WoodMac.

In October last year, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said a global fuel oil sulphur limit of 0.5% mass/mass (m/m) would take effect from 1 January 2020 to help meet the UN body’s environmental and health objectives.

This represents a significant cut from the 3.5% m/m limit, which has been in place since 2012, and relates to fuel oil used in a vessel’s main and auxiliary engines and boilers.

“Coal exporters and importers can expect a 20% to 40% step change increase in coal route voyage rates on a US dollar per tonne basis [if they switch to lower-sulphur fuel],” Knutson said in the report.

According to shipbroker Arrow estimates, a capesize vessel of coal to Europe, from Colombia, currently costs around USD 8.75/t, which is just 9% of the current Des ARA coal price.

For decades, heavy fuel oil has been the global bulk fleet’s fuel of choice, due to its low price and wide availability.

“The days of abundant and cheaper marine fuel are ending,” he said, adding however refineries were slow, and possibly reluctant, to make major investments for the swing to low-sulphur fuel oil.

Options
Shipowners have other options to help them comply with tougher environmental and health regulation, such as retrofitting scrubbers or switching to LNG.

Scrubbers – more officially known as “exhaust gas cleaning systems” – can be retrofitted to vessels and “clean” the emissions before they are released into the atmosphere.

“We predict scrubbers as a medium-term solution for marine fuel compliance. To continue running traditional [high sulphur] fuels requires the cost of a scrubber and downtime for installation,” Knutson said, noting however the technology was largely unproven and costly.

LNG is another option, he said, adding “we forecast liquefied natural gas (LNG) as a long-term solution for marine fuel compliance”.

Existing oil-based engines cannot switch directly to LNG, but shipping companies can procure new LNG-fuelled ships with engine package options ranging from 100% LNG-fired steam turbines to dual diesel and LNG-fuelled units.

Yet so far, shipowners have been slow to deal with the impending restrictions, with many adopting a ‘wait and see’ approach.

“The clock is ticking on global bulker companies before binding international marine fuel sulphur limits come into force,” Knutson said.
Source: Montel

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/coal-freight-rates-face-20-40-hike-from-2020-woodmac/

Gogl eneste bulk aksje som går ned i USA utroligt eller hva ? børs er ikke lett og skjønne av og til

Her skal det fraktes jernmalm ja:-)

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1M10KV?__twitter_impression=true

Ser den, men det som skjer nå er høydeskrekk/gevinstsikring. En aksje går sjelden rett opp hver dag.

Mente nå hvordan ratene gikk nå jeg da, og ikke i 2020 :)

Pust med magen og ta det helt med ro. I april hadde vi aktører som solgte desperat poster på 50000 aksjer om gangen på "best" til 56,25.-. Med litt is i magen hadde de vært 1 million rikere i dag. Du vil alltid finne folk som hopper av så fort man løfter seg noen cm over bakkenivå. Det kalles høydeskrekk.

Syklusen i tørrbulk går helt etter boka, og vi langt unna euforien ennå. De euforiske tilstandene kommer en gang i 2020, og da skal vi selge når den toucher innom 171.- :-)

Enormt press på salgssiden. Var ikke småposter som gikk ut akkurat. Er ratene iferd med å snu allerede?

Ser ikke ut som at folk har fått med seg at ratene på cape er opp 17,4 % de siste 7 dager!

Ikke politisk korrekt, men dette måtte jo bare skje. Folk trenger elektrisitet.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/26/satellite-images-show-runaway-expansion-of-coal-power-in-china

Er vel bare 3,5% feil dette :-)

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/09/De-norske-aksjene-i-USA-og-Canada18

Ja, nå begynner markedet, sakte men sikkert, å forstå hva som er i ferd med å skje. Transport av kull vil være en sterk driver når oljeprisen holder seg høy, skrapingen er under oppsving igjen, og IMO2020 opprettholdes som vil gi en kjempeboost på ratene fremover. Shipping vil bli «hot» de neste årene. Og paradoksalt nok, vil oppsvinget vare lengre på grunn av handelskrigen. Rederne er tilbakeholdne med å bestille nye skip, som igjen vil føre til høyere rater over tid.

Asia coal demand drives panamax rates up 7.5%
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 27/09/2018
Panamax dry vessel rates have risen 7.5% over the past week, as tight domestic Chinese coal supply spurs import demand and Indian buyers also look to replenish stocks, participants said on Wednesday.
The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI), which reflects the 60,000-80,000 deadweight tonne segment, was assessed last at 1,639 points, only marginally below 28 August’s eight-month high of 1,643 points.
As a result, the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks all dry bulk markets, was 7% higher on the week, at 1,450 points.
Domestic shipments in China had been hampered by stringent inspections at the nation’s largest coal port of Qinhuangdao, said a dry bulk analyst with a large shipbroking firm.
“As a result, generators are having to buy more from other countries,” he said.
He noted that through the inspections – which largely focus on coal quality, including sulphur and ash content – the government was attempting to show producers, and the wider global market, that it was “on the ball” with regards to environmental issues.
Indian tightness
Vessel rates were also buoyed by “devastating Indian coal market tightness”, said Hans Gunnar Nåvik, senior analyst with Oslo-based StormGeo Nena Analysis.
Stocks at 117 Indian coal-fired plants, monitored by the Central Electricity Authority, were seen last at 11.1m tonnes – which is sufficient for just seven days’ generation and the lowest level since December last year.
“It is likely that import demand is very strong, but due to the weak currency, India is turning to as much ‘bad coal’ as possible, meaning Indonesian low-calorific coal,” he said.
The Indian rupee was last seen at 72.65 versus the US dollar, compared with 70 a month ago and 66 at the same time last year, making dollar-linked coal less attractive for the country’s buyers.
“Increased coal demand from India supported the [panamax] market, with bad weather disrupting vessel schedules and enhancing rates further,” said shipbroker Allied in a note.
Trade war
Analysts also attributed the rise in panamax rates to buoyant soybean exports from Brazil.
“The Brazilians are running down inventories, and the Chinese are just grabbing it,” said the first analyst, noting this was in place of US soybean purchases, which have been hampered by the ongoing trade war between the two countries.
China has placed 25% import tariff on US soybeans, in retaliation to president Donald Trump’s tariff hikes on Chinese goods.
“[East coast South America] is emerging as the main provider of business in the Atlantic,” said shipbroker Intermodal in a note.
Source: Montel

En ny bulk-rute med soyabonner fra USA til Argentina og Brasil, bra saker. Stå på Donald.

Alt skal fraktes sjøveien, og nå med lengere distanse, takket være handelskrig :)

Crop chop – China shuns U.S. soybeans amid trade war, turns to Brazil
in Dry Bulk Market,Freight News 27/09/2018
China’s soybean processors are snapping up Brazilian cargoes for shipment in the fourth quarter, curbing purchases of U.S. crops for delivery in North America’s peak marketing season as the trade war between Washington and Beijing intensifies.
That shift away from U.S. beans by China, which takes more than 60 percent of the commodity traded worldwide, will pile further pressure on benchmark Chicago Board of Trade prices after they plumbed 10-year lows last week.
China in July imposed a retaliatory 25-percent import duty on U.S. soybeans as part of the tit-for-tat trade dispute between the world’s top two economies, conflict that gathered steam this week with the introduction of fresh tariffs on other products.
“Chinese buyers are snatching soybeans from Brazil’s domestic oilseed market,” said a Singapore-based trader at an international trading company that runs oilseed processing plants in China.
“They are willing to pay a higher prices for Brazilian beans than what domestic crushers are paying,” he added, declining to be identified as he was not authorised to speak with media.

Brazil’s soybean export season typically ends in August-September after which cargoes from the United States take over the market until March. The South American nation is the world’s top exporter, while the United States is No. 2.
But Chinese importers have this year booked around 12 to 14 million tonnes of Brazilian beans for October-November arrival, according to the trader and an analyst in China. That comes as increases in storage capacity and improved logistics have allowed Brazil to extend its selling season.
Soybeans are crushed to make cooking oil and soymeal, a protein-rich animal feed ingredient.
The landed cost of U.S. beans in China is currently similar to Brazilian soybeans even with the 25-percent tariff, but Chinese crushers are reluctant to take U.S. supply as they fear authorities may not approve cargoes.
“The government’s signal on this is clear – do not buy U.S. beans,” said a senior analyst with a major futures brokerage in China.
“Basically, all shipments for the fourth quarter are from Brazil even though prices of Brazilian beans are very high.”
Premiums for Brazilian beans have shot to a record $2.50 a bushel over the November CBOT contract, which was trading at $8.51-1/4 a bushel at 0655 GMT on Wednesday. That compares with zero premium for freshly harvested U.S. soybeans.
Brazil churned out 119.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2017/18 and exported 76.7 million tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

CHANGING TRADE FLOWS
Over the near term, strong Chinese demand could force Brazilian domestic crushers to export their expensive local beans to China and import cheaper supplies from the United States, trade sources said.
Argentine crushers have been following a similar strategy, and recently booked 3-4 cargoes of U.S. soybeans while shipping their own local supplies off to Chinese buyers, according to traders at a recent oilseed conference in China.
“Brazil and Argentina will import soybeans from the United States as they are selling more to China,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney.
China’s purchases from the United States for the beginning of the 2018-19 crop year that began on Sept. 1 are currently a fraction of the long-term average, just as U.S. farmers start harvesting a new record crop estimated by the USDA at over 127 million tonnes.

And the trade war could have long-term ramifications as China looks to cut total full-year soybean purchases for the first time in 15 years, seeking alternatives to soymeal in animal feed.
The country this month cut its forecast for 2018/19 soybean imports to around 84 million tonnes, down from about 93 million tonnes a year earlier.
China’s soybean imports had climbed uninterrupted since 2003/04 as the nation’s rapidly-expanding middle class develops a taste for meats, often produced from livestock given soymeal-based feed.

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Naveen Thukral and Hallie Gu; Editing by Joseph Radford)

Bi-weekly Report
• Capesize rates have bottomed – Following the recent steep correction in Capesize rates, we believe the Capesize market is about to turn up once again. The recent move saw rates declining ~40% from their recent highs but found strong support at ~15,000/d. Panamax rates remain resilient, trading above 12,000/d despite the weakening Capesize market.
• Atlantic Capesize cargo flow should increase – There has been a lull of Atlantic Capesize fixings in the last several weeks. We believe this is about to change which should lead to higher Capesize rates in the next few months. Seasonality in dry bulk is high, and the fourth quarter very rarely has been weaker than the third quarter, which will average above 22,000/d.
• Capesize rates will move higher but might not reach new highs – The recent correction was deeper than we anticipated, and several risks in global trade have been increasing. Sentiment around global trade has deteriorated following the trade war narrative, and that might put a lid on any strengthening in rates beyond reasonable expectations. We expect November to be the month that a considerable spike might take pace, although the odds of that happening have slightly decreased.
• Trade volumes are not the reason for this year’s increase in rates – Trade volume growth year-to-date is still below recent historical averages. Although average rates are up considerably from 2017, that merely reflects the depressed levels that rates are recovering from. However, supply and demand balance this year is not as favorable as most people were anticipating.
• Fleet growth should end up at ~3% for the year – Despite a relatively manageable orderbook, the total absence of scrapping (less than 0.5% ytd) should lead to ~3% fleet growth for all dry bulk shipping this year. Compare that to our 2.5% trade growth estimate, and one can easily see a more balanced market. We believe 2019 will bring stronger volumes from iron ore, but the strength in coal trading this year might not be repeated to further add support in overall volumes for 2019.
• Short-term outlook positive – We expect Capesize rates to jump above 20,000/day in the short term, and probably move towards 30,000/d as we head into November. Panamax rates should also improve, but to a lesser extent.

http://www.drybulketf.com/reports/9-25-2018.pdf

Prisene for nybygde bulk- og tankskip fortsetter å stige.
Ifølge meglerhuset Kepler Cheuvreux er prisene for begge segmenter opp mellom 10 og 15 prosent år over år.
Denne uken har nybyggprisen for VLCCer - Very Large Crude Carrier - økt med ytterligere 0,5 millioner dollar til 90,5 millioner dollar. Det tilsvarer en økning på 12 prosent år over år.
Nybygde tørrbulkskip av typen Capesize opplever en tilsvarende økning til 49 millioner dollar etter en økning på 15 prosent år over år.


Positiv til bulk
Meglerhuset er svært positive til tørrbulksektoren med kjøpsanbefalinger på begge tørrbulkrederiene det har dekning på.
Kursmålet på Oslo-noterte Golden Ocean er på 100 kroner, noe som gir en potensiell oppside på mer enn 30 prosent.
Den potensielle oppsiden er ifølge Kepler-analytikerne enda høyere i danske DS Norden.
Kursmålet på 143 danske kroner er hele 50 prosent høyere enn dagens nivå.
Når det gjelder tankaksjer er imidlertid meglerhuset mer avmålt.
Samtlige fire tankrederier under meglerhusets dekning får hold-anbefalinger.
Kursmålet på John Fredriksens Frontline er satt til 43 kroner, altså noe lavere enn siste omsatte kurs.

Neida, kursen sprettet litt opp og ned, men dette er bare begynnelsen....

Brazil-China ruten for Iron Ore viser gode takter i dag etter gårsdagens ferie. Nå kan vi få 10-15% stigningen om dagen i ratene fremover. Selvsagt ikke hver dag, men at vi vil se slike utslag den neste måneden er jeg rimelig sikker på.

Ja, la oss håpe det Kjepet.
Men egentlig er ikke dagens kurs noe å deppe over. Vi har fått 3 utbytter, så vi kan legge til ca kr 2,40 oppå dagens kurs, og da er vi nært kr 80.
Og mest sannsynlig ligger det gode tider foran oss. Tvi tvi :)

Da ser det endelig ut til at ratene begynner å bevege seg nordover igjen :-)

Klippet fra TradeWinds

Dry continues to soar, as products reach new depths

Broader midsized bulker segment now at its highest level in five years, says Deutsche Bank

September 25th, 2018 01:43 GMT

The midsized bulker markets have reached their highest levels of 2018, despite recent concerns about the impacts of the US China trade war.

The main drivers have been a ramping up in grain/wheat cargoes in the Atlantic and a strong Southeast Asia coal trade, according to Deutsche Bank.

“With the Atlantic grain season taking hold, rates for cargoes out of the US Gulf hit the highest level of 2018 despite concerns around tariffs,” said shipping analyst Amit Mehrotra.

“The Southeast Asian coal trade continues to see rising activity levels and we note Indonesian coal exports have hit the highest level since 2014.”

Mehrotra said the Atlantic coal trade has also “picked up behind seasonal tail winds”, pushing rates into Northern Europe up over 50% week-on-week.

He said Kamsarmax spot rates have firmed 8% week-on-week to $14,900, Panamax rates were up 9% to $15,200 while the Supramax segment firmed 7% week-on-week to come in at $12,200.

Mehrotra said the broader midsized bulker segment now stands at its highest level since 2013, and the investment bank is tipping Eagle Bulk Shipping and Scorpio Bulkers as the best to way to “play this strength”.

In contrast, Mehrotra said the product tanker segment remains “unable to get going” despite elevated refinery throughput.

Spot rates for MR tankers made a new low, he said, down 8% week-on-week to $5,600 behind broad-based weakness.

LR2 spot rates fell 4% week-on-week to $6,900 on the back of reduced activity out of the Middle East, while strength on the UKC – West Africa trade helped the LR1 segment tighten for the third consecutive week, up 10% week-on-week to $7,700.

“While it feels like the product tanker market is nearing a bottom, it is difficult to see a near-term recovery with October refinery maintenance season upon us,” said Mehrotra.

“Nonetheless, we see the opportunity for tightening into the winter months as oil production continues to rise and we approach the end of the multi-year inventory drawdown cycle.”

In addition, Mehrotra says IMO 2020 regulations are likely to provide an opportunity for product tanker markets to “tighten significantly” in the second half of 2019.

The New York-based banker says the regulation is likely to create new trade lanes and has the potential to push product tankers into floating storage.

Meglerhuset Kepler Cheuvreux ser Golden Ocean i 100,- mye basert på verdiøkningen på skipene.

I følge SB1M sin ukentlige short rapport, gikk antallet aksjer utlånt til shorthandel ned med 0,37% forrige uke. Tallene de rapporterer er nå (basert på antallet frie aksjer) som følger:

GOGL NO: -0,37% SI chg. last week
Days to cover = 0,6, quantity on loan = 0,47m

Going long: Chinese steel mills chase iron ore contracts with Brazil’s Vale
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 24/09/2018

Chinese steel mills and traders are rushing to secure long-term contracts for high-quality iron ore ahead of winter steel output cuts, a boon for the main supplier of such grades of the commodity, Brazilian mining giant Vale.

China, the world’s biggest consumer of the steelmaking ingredient, needs higher-quality, less polluting grades of iron ore as it battles to clear its notoriously smoggy skies.

That demand highlights how China’s prolonged war on pollution is shaking global markets for iron ore, the world’s most heavily traded bulk commodity.

The push to get contracts for quality ore is gathering pace as China gears up to enforce industrial production limits on its northern region for a second winter, with top-steel producing city Tangshan aiming to curb up to 70 percent of mill output based on each plant’s carbon emission levels.

Hebei Jingye Group, a medium-size steel mill in the smog-prone northern province of Hebei, is looking for a contract with Vale for supplies of high-grade ore in 2019, a company official said.

That would follow on from a 2018 contract for 1.5 million tonnes of Vale’s Brazilian Blend iron ore fines, or BRBF, with 63-percent iron content.

“We have already regretted not buying more BRBF. Even if we don’t use all of it, we can still sell it in the spot market and make lots of money since prices have gone up so much,” said Jia Zhanhui, who purchases raw materials for Jingye.

Vale, the world’s largest iron ore miner, said it was running out of immediate supplies of some of its top-grade products, with demand from China surging.

“Chinese companies are looking for more long-term contracts with us because of the quality,” Peter Poppinga, executive director for ferrous and coal at Vale, said on the sidelines of an industry conference in China.

“We are completely sold out in Carajas,” Poppinga said, referring to one of the company’s high-grade ores, with iron content of around 65 percent.

“We will allocate Carajas according to long-term contracts and according to some spot opportunities.”

BIG FOUR
Of the world’s big four iron ore miners, Vale stands to benefit the most from China’s growing shift towards less pollutive raw materials due to its mostly high-grade products.

The firm on Thursday said it was looking to expand its flagship iron ore mine in Brazil to feed Chinese demand.

“If you have a long-term contract with Vale in hand right now, it is easy for you to sell it in the market with $5.50 extra per tonne on top of the agreed prices on the contract,” said an iron ore trader with government-backed Zheshang Development Group. He declined to be identified due to company policy.

The price of 65-percent grade Brazilian-origin iron ore had risen by a fifth since March to $96.80 a tonne on Thursday. Its premium over 62-percent grade iron ore fines hit a record $29 this month.

“People are worried that the supply of high-quality material will not be able to meet market demand, so they are making some pre-orders to secure shipment,” said the Zheshang trader.

Meanwhile, other miners such as Fortescue Metals Group Ltd said that appetite for lower-quality products remained robust.

Fortescue Chief Executive Elizabeth Gaines said the company’s customers were seeking longer term contracts for its mostly 58-percent grade iron ore as mills rein in costs by mixing it with higher grade material.

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Muyu Xu and Manolo Serapio Jr.; Editing by Joseph Radford)

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/going-long-chinese-steel-mills-chase-iron-ore-contracts-with-brazils-vale/

Er der noen signaler på hvordan ratene blir i dag ?

Litt kaldt vann i blodet - summen på USD 473 mill er regnskapsmessig overskuddsfond fra tidligere emisjoner. Ved å overføre disse fra overskuddsfondet øker man regnskapsmessig utbytte-evnen. Noe annet er hvilken likviditet som er tilstede for å betale ut utbytte. Man kan gjøre som Equinor og ta opp lån for å betale utbytte i tro på fremtidig kontantstrøm, men da etter forståelse med bankene basis covenants. Tviler på det skjer. Vartdal sier det vel best ved å si at de nå fokuserer på utbyttebetalinger fremover. Aksjonærene har ytt - nå er det payback time. Men det blir ingen eksplosjon. At neste kvartal kontantstrømsmessig gir rom for mer enn 10 cent er vel innlysende - hvor mye blir gjetning - men tror mer på en lengre periode med pene utbytter enn rollercoaste ferd utbyttemessig. Tenker Fredriksen allerede har innkalkulert hvor mye som skal komme i utbytte frem til 2023 - for å finansiere andre aktiviteter. Tenke langsiktig. Jeg også - men i en annen divisjon.