GOGL - September #1

Sa2ri
GOGL 03.09.2018 kl 08:27 25228

PAS er ute med ny månedsportefølje I dag. De beholder GOGL og begrunner dette som følger:

"GOGL – BUY, TP NOK 97 / USD 17.5
Near five years after Fredriksen’s previous growth vehicle Frontline 2012 stated that it wanted to create a spot oriented capsize vehicle that could “pay out dividends almost every day” we are finally getting here. The Q2’18 report was just ahead of expectations, and we believe the 10/cent per quarter dividend will increase steeply from Q3. The capesize market has stabilized well above USD 20,000/day, panamax rates are trending upwards, and the overall demand picture from China is encouraging. The market will eventually start to talk about yield again, and we continue to see significant upside. With USD 1.6/share of FCF at what we consider to be fairly modest 2019 estimates (USD 20k/day for capes) the potential is substantial. Current NAV of USD 9.1 rises to 10.7 if values increase 10%, and if cape-rates go to 30k GOGL could see two dollars of EPS next year."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
03.09.2018 kl 08:57 16270

Takk Sa2ri. Markedet har bestemt at en yield på 22% er altfor dårlig......
jama
03.09.2018 kl 12:22 16024

Ingen Baltic Dry i dag?
Sa2ri
03.09.2018 kl 12:38 15939

BULK:BALTIC CAPESIZE-INDEKS -1,8% TIL USD 20.293/DAG
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Baltic capesize-indeks er ned 1,8 prosent til 20.293 pr dag, ifølge The Baltic Exchange mandag.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
KJEPET
03.09.2018 kl 22:38 15533

Ser at Kina skal investere 500000000000 NOK i Afrika. Håper man trenger noen kilo stål i den "knøttlille" summen :-)

https://www.dn.no/nyheter/2018/09/03/2054/Utenriks/kina-lover-500-mrd-til-afrika
Andreas
04.09.2018 kl 09:17 15280

"As demand for transportation of dry bulk commodities increases throughout the year, BIMCO expects the recovery of freight rates to continue slowly but steadily. Expect higher volumes for coal, iron ore and wheat to dominate the market in the second half of the year."
Link: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-shipping-an-improving-market-even-as-iron-ore-imports-slip-and-the-fleet-grows-faster/
Sa2ri
04.09.2018 kl 09:43 15194

Shortnteressen I GOGL gikk noe ned forrige uke. SB1M sin ukentlige rapport viser nå følgende:

"GOGL NO: -0.49% SI chg. last week
Days to cover = 1.5, quantity on loan = 1.05m"

Det ser også ut til at "noen" mener det er på tide å kjøpe litt aksjer selv om det ikke er like mange som ønsker å selge. Lav omsetning, men momentet ser nå ut il å være nordover.
KJEPET
04.09.2018 kl 11:34 14952

He,he. Da var den ultimate hjerneblødningen over for aktøren som måket ut 112000 GOGL BULL til 19.00 NOK. Snakk om desperasjon!
kubota
04.09.2018 kl 14:29 14740

Heisann Kjepet.

Det var nok min handel, satser på en lavere inngang før neste kvartall rapport. Inngang var ca 7.7nok, så ikkje så værst. Hovedgrunnen for salget var at eg tror det blir turbulent denne uken med tanke på Donald og mulige toll satser iløpet av uken. Fortsatt ståltro på Gogl, så det går nok ikkje lang tid før eg er inne igjen.
KJEPET
04.09.2018 kl 14:34 14704

Grattis med kjempegevinsten:-)

Du gikk inn januar 2017? Aldri feil med gevinst. Har du byttet strategi? Trading, siden du frykter uken som kommer?
kubota
04.09.2018 kl 15:11 14588

Nei eg gikk inn i april 2016 en gang, og litt små trading etter dette.
Strategien er og kanskje gå inn i aksjen istedenfor, siden det blir nok endel utbytter framover, og den er mindre volatil :-)
Kbkristi
04.09.2018 kl 17:59 14412

Skal bli interesant å se hvilken dollarkurs vi får når utbyttet betales. Dollaren står nå i 8,409.
utaskjærs
05.09.2018 kl 16:26 14041

Herr Pettersen i Aksjeanalyser mener at GOGL vil doble seg i lopet av ett års tid. Har sett mye rart fra den karen, men kanskje han har rett denne gangen. :-)https://www.nettavisen.no/meninger/aksjeanalyser/fredriksen-aksje-er-en-klar-doblingskandidat/3423533172.html
Kbkristi
05.09.2018 kl 17:20 13942

Kjekk artikkel. Når Gogl begynner å spytte ut utbytte, så kommer kursen også.
Og så venter vi jo på gladmeldingen fra Bermuda da. Var det ikke i sept møtet skulle være?
kubota
06.09.2018 kl 21:03 13316

Nei koster bare litt dårlig søvn, og den mister en viss verdi over tid. Kurtasjen er den samme som aksjer tror eg.
6seas
09.09.2018 kl 15:06 12912

Markedet for tørrbulkfrakt er fortsatt i contango på tvers av alle størrelser med Capesize i front av flokken, ifølge Nordic Shipping.

Skipsmeglerhuset viser til at Forward Freight Agreements, fremtidige fraktavtaler, for september handles til rundt 22.000 dollar pr. dag i capesize-segmentet, mens kontrakter for november - to måneder senere - handles til dagrater på rundt 27.500 dollar.

Skipsverdiene i tørrbulkmarkedet har fått et betydelig oppsving siden markedet bunnet ut i starten av 2016, men nå har de stabilisert seg noe, ifølge Nordic Shipping.

- Det er plenty av bulkskip til salgs og det er ingen drivere for høyere skipsverdier for øyeblikket, skriver meglerhuset i sin seneste ukesrapport.

- Det var helt utvilsomt et klarere investeringscase i 2016 da tørrbulkmarkedet var under opex, verdiene var historisk lave og de med guts, plasserte veddemålene sine, heter det videre.

Kbkristi
10.09.2018 kl 09:42 12783

Det var da fryktelig hvor mye juling vi har måtte tåle i det siste. Rsi på 38,69 nå!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
12.09.2018 kl 21:50 12118

Mener vi er godt posisjonert nå, og håper ikke de kjøper noe enda. I 2020 vil det nok skje mye med de som ikke er forberedt på IMO 2020. Da kan man nok plukke gode skip til skrapverdi. De rederiene som lar 2020 komme som julaften på kjærringa, går nok en tøff tid i møte. Det er mange utfordringer med forskjellig drivstoff, klogging av filtre, motorhavari ++ etc. Og dette må testes ut før 1. jan 2020.
Dessuten kreves det både penger og styrke nok til å ta et skip ut av drift i mange måneder, uten inntjening, for å installere scrubbere.
Mr John har jo lært Trøim at man bygger selskapet i bunnen av syklusen, og ikke når den er godt på vei.
Setter pris på at Vartdal sier de prioriterer utbytte. Det fortjener vi nå.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
12.09.2018 kl 22:38 12016

Må legge til kveldens fra Bulls. Etterhvert må jo de få rett også.

Last Signal:STAY IN CASH
Last Close:73,30 Change:+0,4500 Percent change+0,62% Signal Update Our system’s recommendation today is to STAY IN CASH. The previous SELL signal was issued on 23.08.2018, 20 days ago, when the stock price was 81,00. Since then GOGL.OL has fallen by -9,51%.
Market Outlook The market is finally giving hints of a bullish resurgence. Today a bullish pattern is detected. more...
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
13.09.2018 kl 08:38 11843

Jernmalmen ser ut til å være i stigende terreng i dag, og på greit volum. Lettelse i Asia på morgenkvisten, og bevegelsen i jernmalmen, kan derfor være med å løfte kursen en del i dag.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Wilde
13.09.2018 kl 10:45 11607

Hehe. Mye fremtidsoptimisme hos rederne nå. Det ser dog ut til at markedet - enn så lennge - ikke har priset inn dette. Hvis cashflowen fortsetter som nå, og det kommer flere kvartaler med utbytte, kommer det til å gå rett nord både for GOGL og JIN.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
mithra
13.09.2018 kl 13:21 11462

Ratene har falt over 35% den siste måneden mens aksjekursen er uendret, Investorene har beholdt troen hele tiden - men den begynner muligens å bli litt tynnslitt etter hvert ? Husk at GOGL har et helt gjeldsberg å drasse med.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
14.09.2018 kl 07:19 11244

Dry Bulk Market is – So Far – Unaffected by the US-China Trade Battles
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 14/09/2018

While it’s a bit difficult to expect this trend persisting, it’s becoming clear that the trade war between the US and China hasn’t dented the dry bulk market’s upwards momentum, thanks, in part to a boom in soybeans trade involving Brazil and the balance between tonnage supply and demand.

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “it has been a rather turbulent week, with emerging markets having taken a considerable hit in the midst of the recent strength noted in US Dollar and the still bleakish view noted on trade (something emerging markets rely heavily on). Despite all this, the performance of the dry bulk market has managed to hold its ground relatively well and given the current freight rate levels being noted, we could well be on the verge of further improvements in sight”.

According to Allied’s, George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations, “it is worth pointing out that Australia’s Port Hedland noted a nearly 10 percent monthly increase in its shipments of iron ore to China during the month of August, showing that despite the negative influence that has been noted by the trade disputes, demand is still there and showing positive signs thanks to the firm steel production”.

Lazaridis added that “a trade that has really shown considerable shifts over the past months has been that of grains and more specifically that of soybeans. During the past month China increased its soybean imports by an impressive 14 percent from a month earlier. This drive has in part been driven by the damage caused to crops in China’s Northeastern region, something that will surely help push the market further over the coming weeks as they seek to partly cover the gap in demand with imports. The tariffs that China has imposed on soybean imports from the US have also played their part, essentially pushing most traders to seek to increase their reliance on imports from Brazil. Given that the harvest seasons for these two countries don’t completely coincide, it has lead to bigger seasonal shifts in trade volumes”.

“Adding to this mix the continued support being handed to the dry bulk market from the bullish coal trade noted this year and you have a recipe for further freight rate gains. In terms of coal, things are likely set to continue to hold firm for the medium term, given that both China and India are still showing strong demand trends for the time being”, Allied analyst said.

He went on to note that “putting these trends in trade against the trends noted in terms of fleet and you can see how there is still a fair balance being kept in the market. The overall dry bulk fleet has increased by a fairly moderate 1.46% over the past 8 months. Given that we are expected to close off the year with a 2.6% net increase in the dry bulk trade, this still leaves for a fair positive margin to be gained despite all the developments that have taken place this year. Comparing were the Baltic Index stands now against past years and looking at the typical trends noted in the final quarter of each year for the past 5 years, you can’t help but keep a more optimistic view despite all the political commotion taking place”, Lazaridis concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-is-so-far-unaffected-by-the-us-china-trade-battles/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
14.09.2018 kl 11:25 11047

Interessant om scrubbere og IMO2020:

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/09/Vedder-paa-dieselkrise-om-16-maaneder
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
ole
14.09.2018 kl 11:40 10995

Gogl blir vel godt posisjonert i forhold til dette hvis de rekker å få inn planlagte scrubbere.. noen som vet når det skal skje? Rekker de 2020?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
14.09.2018 kl 11:59 10946

Du finner mer informasjon om dette i 2Q18-rapporten.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
ole
14.09.2018 kl 12:07 10910

Ja, jeg fant at de har signert på 16 skip, men ikke mer detaljer. Montasjetid og tilkomst til verft mm spiller vel inn..får lese litt igjen.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
holysmoke
14.09.2018 kl 12:10 10899

De rekker det neppe for hele flåten. Lettere olje er alternativet. Denne vil være svært dyr i begynnelsen, pga kapasitetsproblemer. Etterhvert vil prisen gå ned, når raffineriene har fått opp dampen. Så hva svarer seg: scrubbere eller lettolje? Thats the big question. I begynnelsen er scrubbere vinnerne, men på et visst tidspunkt vil trolig lettolje være tilnærmet like gunstig dersom en regner inn kostnad for scrubber-installasjon uten inntekter under verfts opphold.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Kbkristi
14.09.2018 kl 12:13 10885

Norway’s Vistin sees trading opportunities ahead of 2020 ship fuel change
in International Shipping News 14/09/2018


Energy trader Vistin Trading, a part of pharmaceutical company Vistin Pharma, sees big trading opportunities ahead of new stricter shipping fuel regulations in 2020 and plans to set up two new funds by the end of the year.
The International Maritime Organisation’s (IMO) new regulations come into force from 2020, requiring shipping firms to use fuel oil with a sulphur content at 0.5 percent, down from 3.5 percent now or invest in cleaning systems, so-called “scrubbers” on their vessels.
“We believe the market is mispricing both residual fuel oil (high sulphur fuel oil) and & gasoil (low sulphur fuel oil),” oil analyst Torbjoern Kjus trading told a presentation in Oslo.
The spread is currently about $300 per tonne.
“30,000 scrubbers have to be installed the next 16 months (if shipping firms should comply with new IMO rules) if not, there should be a problem for the refineries. Of course it will not happen, we might reach 2,000 scrubbers,” Kjus said.
Vistin Trading was established in March this year through a private placement of 300 million Norwegian crowns ($36.5 million) in Vistin Pharma.
“Part of Vistin Pharma’s strategy is to invest in asymmetrical investment opportunities caused by fundamental changes in the oil space,” the firm said.
“We will probably set up two funds before the year-end, we can’t give the size yet,” Kjus said.
Kjus expects the price of low sulphur fuel oil to rise because of higher demand to comply with new rules and constraints at refineries.
This again could also lead to higher prices of jet fuel for airlines, his partner Kenneth Tveter, said on the sidelines of the conference.
Kjus is a former oil market analyst at broker DNB Markets in Oslo and was early in predicting the oil price crash in late 2014. Tveter has been working at DNB Markets in New York.
Kjus also predicted higher freight rates and 0.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in extra oil demand as side-effects of the fuel standard change.
Source: Reuters (Reporting By Ole Petter Skonnord, editing by David Evans)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
14.09.2018 kl 13:17 10769

Fra rapporten:

"The Company has entered into an agreement to purchase 16 exhaust gas scrubbers with an option to
purchase nine additional scrubbers to be installed on certain of its Capesize vessels. The initial 16 scrubbers
will be installed during routine dry docking schedules, and the majority of these installations will be completed
in 2019 or early 2020."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
The Godfather
14.09.2018 kl 13:27 10737

Sakset fra TradeWinds

DNB Markets raises its rate forecasts for the ships but cautions owners with the equipment will likely speed up rather than slow down.

September 14th, 2018 10:24 GMT

A spike in shipowners turning to scrubbers is reducing the likely impact of slow steaming on the capesize market when new regulations kick in at the start of 2020, DNB Markets says.

The bank, which has raised its capesize rate forecasts for the next two years, believes the exhaust cleaning systems represent a good investment for shipowners.

DNB Markets analysts led by Nicolay Dyvik note 2,300 vessels globally are now likely to have scrubbers by 2020.

This covers around 15% of heavy fuel oil demand and largely offsets potential positive effects of higher fuel costs on vessel speed and supply, they argue.

Scrubbers will be most prevalent in the major shipping segments, with the analysts forecasting 973 dry bulk vessels will have the equipment when the new IMO rules come into force.

“The larger and more fuel-hungry vessels are likely to be overrepresented at the scrubber shop,” Dyvik and colleagues Jorgen Lian and Mats Bye said.

They suggest scrubbers for capesize bulkers will come with a payback period of 14 months, assuming a $250 per tonne fuel price spread between HFO and a compliant alternative.

However, given the higher takeup of scrubbers among capesize owners, those with the equipment will have an incentive to speed up, the analysts suggest.

As a result, the net effect of slow-steaming will reduce effective supply by just 0.5%, the analysts calculate.

“We believe large scrubber uptake combined with a young fleet would lessen the 2020 impact on dry bulk,” the analysts said.

Despite the surge in demand from major capesize owners for scrubbers, DNB Markets remains optimistic on the dry bulk market.

With average fleet growth of 2.6% between 2018 and 2021 and demand forecast to increase by 3.3% in the same period, the analysts suggest second hand bulker prices could rise by 11%.

DNB Markets is now forecasting capesize rates of $19,000 per day for this year, up by $2,000 per day from its previous projection.

Its forecast for next year has been increased from $20,000 to $24,000 per day.

Despite the comments around slow steaming being diluted, the DNB analysts now project capesize rates of $27,000 per day in 2020, up from $23,000 per day previously.

“We stay optimistic on the dry bulk outlook, but demand looks more fragile being highly coal-dependent as iron ore is facing slower growth,” Dyvik, Lian and Mats Bye said.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mollen
14.09.2018 kl 16:17 10553

Scrubbere kan installeres mens skipene seiler. De tas ikke ut av trafikk for dette.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
17.09.2018 kl 10:53 10112

Flere og flere som hvor dette ender. Rett og slett i en eksplosjon :-)
https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/09/Den-kan-komme-til-aa-eksplodere
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Schenk
17.09.2018 kl 14:15 9901

Eksplosjonen som nevnes er vel primært rettet mot dieselprisen, men artikkelen støtter jo at vi GOGL-aksjonærer har noe godt i vente :-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
18.09.2018 kl 13:31 9618

September har så langt ikke innfridd de forventingene mange har hatt til utviklingen i ratene. I følge en melding på Twitter nettopp, kan det se ut som om det er i ferd med å snu:

"FFA: Market levels are trading a bit firmer on Capes & Smx so far this morning while Pmx is fairly flat. Expecting Pmx/Smx/Handy TCAs to be flat up slightly."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
KJEPET
18.09.2018 kl 13:32 9610

Etter nesten en måned med kontinuering fall i caperatene, ser det nå ut som vi har bunnet ut for denne gang. Da får vi nok stigende rater fremover. Når passerer vi $30.000/d? 22. oktober er mitt tips :-)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:15 Du må logge inn for å svare