GOGL - September #1

Sa2ri
GOGL 03.09.2018 kl 08:27 19350

PAS er ute med ny månedsportefølje I dag. De beholder GOGL og begrunner dette som følger:

"GOGL – BUY, TP NOK 97 / USD 17.5
Near five years after Fredriksen’s previous growth vehicle Frontline 2012 stated that it wanted to create a spot oriented capsize vehicle that could “pay out dividends almost every day” we are finally getting here. The Q2’18 report was just ahead of expectations, and we believe the 10/cent per quarter dividend will increase steeply from Q3. The capesize market has stabilized well above USD 20,000/day, panamax rates are trending upwards, and the overall demand picture from China is encouraging. The market will eventually start to talk about yield again, and we continue to see significant upside. With USD 1.6/share of FCF at what we consider to be fairly modest 2019 estimates (USD 20k/day for capes) the potential is substantial. Current NAV of USD 9.1 rises to 10.7 if values increase 10%, and if cape-rates go to 30k GOGL could see two dollars of EPS next year."
Sa2ri
20.09.2018 kl 09:10 7023

BULK:CAPESIZE-RATENE SIDELENGS SENESTE UKEN -FEARNLEYS
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Capesize-ratene har beveget seg sidelengs den seneste uken, men med en positiv undertone, skriver Fearnleys i sin ukentlige shipping-rapport.

Videre har panamaxaene opplevd en positiv rateoppgang i Stillehavs-regionen, som har blitt motvirket av fallende rater i Atlanteren, opplyses det.

For supramaxene har ratene driftet inn i positivt territorium for alle ruter.

RATER (USD/DAG, USD/TONN):
DENNE FORRIGE
CAPESIZE UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
TCT Cont/Fjern-Østen 35.000 34.250 18.000/44.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Tubarao/Rotterdam (jernmalm) 8,00 8,30 5,40/11,50
--------------------------------------------------------------
Richards Bay/Rotterdam 8,00 8,20 5,40/12,30
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
PANAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet rundreise 12.000 13.000 7.100/15.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 19.800 20.300 15.000/21.800
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen/Kontinentet 4.951 4.821 4.300/5.200
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Østen, rundreise 12.500 11.500 8.300/13.750
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
SUPRAMAX UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Atlanterhavet, rundreise 14.500 14.500 11.000/16.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Stillehavet, rundreise 11.500 11.000 8.000/12.500
--------------------------------------------------------------
TC Kontinentet/Østen 17.500 17.500 16.000/20.500
==============================================================
DENNE FORRIGE
1 ÅR TIMECHARTER UKE UKE LAV/HØY 2018
==============================================================
Capesize 180' dwt 21.500 21.500 17.000/22.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Capesize 170' dwt 19.000 19.000 15.750/19.250
--------------------------------------------------------------
Panamax 75' dwt 13.000 13.300 11.250/14.000
--------------------------------------------------------------
Supramax 53' dwt 12.500 12.500 10.000/13.000
==============================================================
HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

Kbkristi
20.09.2018 kl 14:19 6815

Og da var utbytte på konto :)
Og det til en $ kurs på kr 8,40 !
Redigert 20.09.2018 kl 14:24 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
21.09.2018 kl 08:24 6634

Lack of available shipping finance has contributed to dry bulk market’s revival
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 21/09/2018

The dry bulk market is heading for a revival as a result of the balance achieved in the global orderbook, both as a result of a rebound in demand, but also because of a lack of available financing, says Allied Shipbroking. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted that “it was 10 years ago this past Friday, when the world encountered the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression. A crisis that affected the whole business world and led shipping markets into a tail spin recession unlike any seen in decades. In the summer of 2008, the BDI had reached its highest point in its history, peaking at 11,793 points. The booming market conditions noted since the latter half of 2003 had boosted market confidence to new highs, while many were proclaiming a new market reality was taking shape. This optimism, which as usual occurs at the top of any market cycle, had as a result a spending spree that was unmatched, as a consequence leading to the biggest orderbook pile up in history being held by shipbuilders. The orderbook had reached 3,700 vessels just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008”.

According to Allied’s Research Analyts, Yiannis Vamvakas, “the harsh impact of the crisis was swift and unpleasant for the dry bulk sector, though despite all this, the orderbook number fell by only 7% in 2009. The orderbook remained above 3,000 vessels up until the last quarter of 2011 thanks to renewed interest for new orders post the financial crash. With the end of the commodity super-cycle in 2011 we began to see a drop in the orderbook of 15% per year on average, reaching 863 at August 2018. As a result of all this, the fleet grew vastly in the years following the collapse, with the YoY% fleet growth figures being 8% and 9% respectively for 2010 and 2011, while in the last 10 years it has increased by 62% in terms of vessel numbers”.

Vamvakas added that “after 2011, fleet growth started to drop gradually, reaching 2% in 2017. Demolitions volumes increased in this time period helping alleviate the market from some of these excesses, though even with these removals it took a while before a balance could be reached. Meanwhile, global trade took a serious hit just after the 2008 crash, with total volume falling by around 14% in 2009, according to WTO. Consequently, this huge gap between supply and demand sent rates plummeting. Capes saw the worst of this, going from exuberant rates of around $200,000pd at its peak, down to lower than $10,000 per day in the last quarter of the same year”.

Meanwhile, “unlike previous financial and economic downturns, the recovery this time around was fairly swift, yet the ground work had been laid down for the gradually retreat of the double figure growth rates in trade. Today, with the orderbook to fleet ratio is at around 12%, with market fundamentals turning positive and with a considerably improved global trade growth noted over the past 2 years, the question is what will happen if all this starts to build up to over exuberance amongst shipowners. The truth is that another aspect of this crisis is still playing a key role here. More specifically, the ship financing market has not completely revived yet”, said Allied’s analyst.

“Traditional ship financing houses are still limiting their involvement in the market. Over the past couple of years we have seen limited fresh lending, as well reduced credit lines and even withdrawals from previously agreed commitments. Alternative financing is only just coming into the spotlight, with Chinese leasing being the latest flavor of the month. All these have helped keep the orderbook at low levels, a fact that has facilitated to bring about some breathing space in the market. All in all, as shipping finance starts to become more accessible and finds new ways to reinvent itself and with market fundamentals continuing to improve, it is matter of time before we see if George Santayana’s quote, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”, will be confirmed once more”, Vamvacas concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/lack-of-available-shipping-finance-has-contributed-to-dry-bulk-markets-revival/

I dag er det Generalforsamling på Bermuda. (5 timer tidsforskjell)
Kanskje vi kan vente oss noen positive overraskelser??
Hva med den saken som skal opp til behandling om å flytte store midler fra bunden til fri egenkapital?
Det står jo i forslaget at deler av dette kan benyttes til utbytte.
Kanskje det kommer en melding i dag, eller kanskje ikke før på mandag.
KJEPET
21.09.2018 kl 12:09 6369

Det er mye mulig det kommer noe snadder i dag ja, time will show.

Lurer på hvor desperasjonen til å selge unna kommer fra, når vi ser at ratene på Brasil-Kina ruten endelig har snudd? Er jo fin interesse fra større aktører i dag for å komme seg inn, mens denne aktøren lemper ut en haug med aksjer på "best" som det skulle vært et rent tvangssalg?
Kbkristi
21.09.2018 kl 12:46 6293

Ja, det blir spennende framover. På møtet idag blir det stemt, og så har de maks 30 dager på seg til å offentligjøre avgjørelsen.
Og det er ikke småpenger det er snakk om. $ 473 Mill. Det vil si ca kr 27 pr aksje som de vil bruke til å styrke utbetaling av utbytte.
Her vil det nok bli ekstraordinært utbytte også, vil jeg tro.
Kbkristi
21.09.2018 kl 12:59 6255

Vet ikke om jeg skal le eller gråte over alle de som absolutt ikke vil være med på moroa. Men her er nok mange som ikke har fulgt med i timen.

Vet noen når i dag det er generalforsamling? Kunne tenkt meg å sett webcast.
Kbkristi
21.09.2018 kl 13:53 6137

Møtet startet kl 0900 Bermuda tid som vil si kl 1300 her. Det er nok lukket møte.
KJEPET
21.09.2018 kl 14:10 6084

Om det jeg leser på Twitter nå stemmer (som nevnt tidligere litt usikker kilde9, så setter jeg kursen mot polet for en god flaske rødvin :-)
Kbkristi
21.09.2018 kl 14:19 7533

Tror vi kan ta helg med en god følelse Kjepet. Til og med Volf er positiv, så hva kan gå gå galt galt galt galt.... :)
Sa2ri
21.09.2018 kl 14:31 7487

Ser ut til at vi får en fin avslutning på uken. Tar med et par klipp fra PAS sin Shipping Daily i dag hvor tittelen var "Capesize rate momentum has turned":

"Capesize rates continue to climb, up another 2.2% yesterday, as especially iron ore cargoes are really starting to show positive momentum. Three Brazilian loadings fixed yesterday alongside with multiple Australian."

"China’s steel demand said to remain steady regardless of trade war
 According to Reuters, head of Chinas steel association stated that “The U.S. wants Chinese demand to go down but the U.S. doesn’t have the ability to command the Chinese economy”
He further said that due to increased infrastructure spending such as urban rail projects will contribute to a continues strong demand for steel
 While imports remains at healthy levels, from January to August steel exports has come down by 13.1% to 47.2m tonnes, according to the news source"

Ønsker alle en god helg.

KJEPET
21.09.2018 kl 15:09 7380

Da var det nok hold i ryktene ser det ut til. Vinen er i hus. God helg.
Schenk
21.09.2018 kl 15:10 7369

Nu kör vi, grabbar! rt 77,70
KJEPET
21.09.2018 kl 15:17 7347

Ser man prøver å senke kursen med salg av 50 og 50 aksjer. Lykke til med det, :-)
Surik
21.09.2018 kl 20:43 7132

Når kommer høst draget i ratene da Kjepet? Det er en drøy uke til oktober og jeg synes det ser litt tamt ut foreløpig.
Torine
21.09.2018 kl 21:20 7073

GOGL – 2018 Annual General Meeting

21.09.2018

Golden Ocean Group Limited (the “Company“) advises that the 2018 Annual General Meeting of the Shareholders of the Company was held on September 21, 2018 at 09:30 a.m. at the Hamilton Princess and Beach Club, 76 Pitts Bay Road, Hamilton HM CX, Bermuda. The audited consolidated financial statements for the Company for the year ended December 31, 2017 were presented to the Meeting.
In addition, the following resolutions were passed:

To re-elect John Fredriksen as a Director of the Company.

To re-elect Ola Lorentzon as a Director of the Company.

To re-elect Gert-Jan van den Akker as a Director of the Company.

To approve the increase of the Company’s authorized share capital from US$7,500,000 divided into 150,000,000 common shares of US$0.05 par value each to US$10,000,000 divided into 200,000,000 common shares of US$0.05 par value each by the authorisation of an additional 50,000,000 common shares of US$0.05 par value each.

To reduce the share premium account of the Company to nil, and to credit the amount resulting from the reduction to the Company’s Contributed Surplus account, with immediate effect.

To re-appoint PricewaterhouseCoopers AS as auditors and to authorise the Directors to determine their remuneration.

To approve remuneration of the Company’s Board of Directors of a total amount of fees not to exceed US$600,000 for the year ended December 31, 2018.

Hamilton, Bermuda
September 21, 2018
Kbkristi
21.09.2018 kl 22:43 6938

Tusen takk Torine :)
Forstår det som at alt ble banket igjennom.
Økt aksjekapital skal brukes til oppkjøp av andre selskaper, om det kommer gunstig ut.
Kapitalen på "Premium account" må vel komme gamle aksjonærer tilgode! Dette må igjen få velsignelse av långivere slik at det ikke kommer til noe brudd på lånebetingelser, etter hva jeg forstår.
Mitt bett er at det går nok 1-2 måneder før dette materialiserer seg, men i potten ligger $473 mill.
Håper vinen smakte Kjepet.
Ellers må dere ha ei fin helg Volf, Sa2ri og alle andre gode bidragsytere :)
laser
22.09.2018 kl 12:20 6705

Litt kaldt vann i blodet - summen på USD 473 mill er regnskapsmessig overskuddsfond fra tidligere emisjoner. Ved å overføre disse fra overskuddsfondet øker man regnskapsmessig utbytte-evnen. Noe annet er hvilken likviditet som er tilstede for å betale ut utbytte. Man kan gjøre som Equinor og ta opp lån for å betale utbytte i tro på fremtidig kontantstrøm, men da etter forståelse med bankene basis covenants. Tviler på det skjer. Vartdal sier det vel best ved å si at de nå fokuserer på utbyttebetalinger fremover. Aksjonærene har ytt - nå er det payback time. Men det blir ingen eksplosjon. At neste kvartal kontantstrømsmessig gir rom for mer enn 10 cent er vel innlysende - hvor mye blir gjetning - men tror mer på en lengre periode med pene utbytter enn rollercoaste ferd utbyttemessig. Tenker Fredriksen allerede har innkalkulert hvor mye som skal komme i utbytte frem til 2023 - for å finansiere andre aktiviteter. Tenke langsiktig. Jeg også - men i en annen divisjon.
Mollen
24.09.2018 kl 10:13 6328

Er der noen signaler på hvordan ratene blir i dag ?
Redigert 24.09.2018 kl 10:14 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
25.09.2018 kl 07:33 6009

Going long: Chinese steel mills chase iron ore contracts with Brazil’s Vale
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 24/09/2018

Chinese steel mills and traders are rushing to secure long-term contracts for high-quality iron ore ahead of winter steel output cuts, a boon for the main supplier of such grades of the commodity, Brazilian mining giant Vale.

China, the world’s biggest consumer of the steelmaking ingredient, needs higher-quality, less polluting grades of iron ore as it battles to clear its notoriously smoggy skies.

That demand highlights how China’s prolonged war on pollution is shaking global markets for iron ore, the world’s most heavily traded bulk commodity.

The push to get contracts for quality ore is gathering pace as China gears up to enforce industrial production limits on its northern region for a second winter, with top-steel producing city Tangshan aiming to curb up to 70 percent of mill output based on each plant’s carbon emission levels.

Hebei Jingye Group, a medium-size steel mill in the smog-prone northern province of Hebei, is looking for a contract with Vale for supplies of high-grade ore in 2019, a company official said.

That would follow on from a 2018 contract for 1.5 million tonnes of Vale’s Brazilian Blend iron ore fines, or BRBF, with 63-percent iron content.

“We have already regretted not buying more BRBF. Even if we don’t use all of it, we can still sell it in the spot market and make lots of money since prices have gone up so much,” said Jia Zhanhui, who purchases raw materials for Jingye.

Vale, the world’s largest iron ore miner, said it was running out of immediate supplies of some of its top-grade products, with demand from China surging.

“Chinese companies are looking for more long-term contracts with us because of the quality,” Peter Poppinga, executive director for ferrous and coal at Vale, said on the sidelines of an industry conference in China.

“We are completely sold out in Carajas,” Poppinga said, referring to one of the company’s high-grade ores, with iron content of around 65 percent.

“We will allocate Carajas according to long-term contracts and according to some spot opportunities.”

BIG FOUR
Of the world’s big four iron ore miners, Vale stands to benefit the most from China’s growing shift towards less pollutive raw materials due to its mostly high-grade products.

The firm on Thursday said it was looking to expand its flagship iron ore mine in Brazil to feed Chinese demand.

“If you have a long-term contract with Vale in hand right now, it is easy for you to sell it in the market with $5.50 extra per tonne on top of the agreed prices on the contract,” said an iron ore trader with government-backed Zheshang Development Group. He declined to be identified due to company policy.

The price of 65-percent grade Brazilian-origin iron ore had risen by a fifth since March to $96.80 a tonne on Thursday. Its premium over 62-percent grade iron ore fines hit a record $29 this month.

“People are worried that the supply of high-quality material will not be able to meet market demand, so they are making some pre-orders to secure shipment,” said the Zheshang trader.

Meanwhile, other miners such as Fortescue Metals Group Ltd said that appetite for lower-quality products remained robust.

Fortescue Chief Executive Elizabeth Gaines said the company’s customers were seeking longer term contracts for its mostly 58-percent grade iron ore as mills rein in costs by mixing it with higher grade material.

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Muyu Xu and Manolo Serapio Jr.; Editing by Joseph Radford)

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/going-long-chinese-steel-mills-chase-iron-ore-contracts-with-brazils-vale/
Sa2ri
25.09.2018 kl 07:39 5992

I følge SB1M sin ukentlige short rapport, gikk antallet aksjer utlånt til shorthandel ned med 0,37% forrige uke. Tallene de rapporterer er nå (basert på antallet frie aksjer) som følger:

GOGL NO: -0,37% SI chg. last week
Days to cover = 0,6, quantity on loan = 0,47m

Meglerhuset Kepler Cheuvreux ser Golden Ocean i 100,- mye basert på verdiøkningen på skipene.

Klippet fra TradeWinds

Dry continues to soar, as products reach new depths

Broader midsized bulker segment now at its highest level in five years, says Deutsche Bank

September 25th, 2018 01:43 GMT

The midsized bulker markets have reached their highest levels of 2018, despite recent concerns about the impacts of the US China trade war.

The main drivers have been a ramping up in grain/wheat cargoes in the Atlantic and a strong Southeast Asia coal trade, according to Deutsche Bank.

“With the Atlantic grain season taking hold, rates for cargoes out of the US Gulf hit the highest level of 2018 despite concerns around tariffs,” said shipping analyst Amit Mehrotra.

“The Southeast Asian coal trade continues to see rising activity levels and we note Indonesian coal exports have hit the highest level since 2014.”

Mehrotra said the Atlantic coal trade has also “picked up behind seasonal tail winds”, pushing rates into Northern Europe up over 50% week-on-week.

He said Kamsarmax spot rates have firmed 8% week-on-week to $14,900, Panamax rates were up 9% to $15,200 while the Supramax segment firmed 7% week-on-week to come in at $12,200.

Mehrotra said the broader midsized bulker segment now stands at its highest level since 2013, and the investment bank is tipping Eagle Bulk Shipping and Scorpio Bulkers as the best to way to “play this strength”.

In contrast, Mehrotra said the product tanker segment remains “unable to get going” despite elevated refinery throughput.

Spot rates for MR tankers made a new low, he said, down 8% week-on-week to $5,600 behind broad-based weakness.

LR2 spot rates fell 4% week-on-week to $6,900 on the back of reduced activity out of the Middle East, while strength on the UKC – West Africa trade helped the LR1 segment tighten for the third consecutive week, up 10% week-on-week to $7,700.

“While it feels like the product tanker market is nearing a bottom, it is difficult to see a near-term recovery with October refinery maintenance season upon us,” said Mehrotra.

“Nonetheless, we see the opportunity for tightening into the winter months as oil production continues to rise and we approach the end of the multi-year inventory drawdown cycle.”

In addition, Mehrotra says IMO 2020 regulations are likely to provide an opportunity for product tanker markets to “tighten significantly” in the second half of 2019.

The New York-based banker says the regulation is likely to create new trade lanes and has the potential to push product tankers into floating storage.
KJEPET
25.09.2018 kl 11:04 5682

Da ser det endelig ut til at ratene begynner å bevege seg nordover igjen :-)
Kbkristi
25.09.2018 kl 11:14 5658

Ja, la oss håpe det Kjepet.
Men egentlig er ikke dagens kurs noe å deppe over. Vi har fått 3 utbytter, så vi kan legge til ca kr 2,40 oppå dagens kurs, og da er vi nært kr 80.
Og mest sannsynlig ligger det gode tider foran oss. Tvi tvi :)
KJEPET
25.09.2018 kl 11:52 5565

Neida, kursen sprettet litt opp og ned, men dette er bare begynnelsen....

Brazil-China ruten for Iron Ore viser gode takter i dag etter gårsdagens ferie. Nå kan vi få 10-15% stigningen om dagen i ratene fremover. Selvsagt ikke hver dag, men at vi vil se slike utslag den neste måneden er jeg rimelig sikker på.

Prisene for nybygde bulk- og tankskip fortsetter å stige.
Ifølge meglerhuset Kepler Cheuvreux er prisene for begge segmenter opp mellom 10 og 15 prosent år over år.
Denne uken har nybyggprisen for VLCCer - Very Large Crude Carrier - økt med ytterligere 0,5 millioner dollar til 90,5 millioner dollar. Det tilsvarer en økning på 12 prosent år over år.
Nybygde tørrbulkskip av typen Capesize opplever en tilsvarende økning til 49 millioner dollar etter en økning på 15 prosent år over år.


Positiv til bulk
Meglerhuset er svært positive til tørrbulksektoren med kjøpsanbefalinger på begge tørrbulkrederiene det har dekning på.
Kursmålet på Oslo-noterte Golden Ocean er på 100 kroner, noe som gir en potensiell oppside på mer enn 30 prosent.
Den potensielle oppsiden er ifølge Kepler-analytikerne enda høyere i danske DS Norden.
Kursmålet på 143 danske kroner er hele 50 prosent høyere enn dagens nivå.
Når det gjelder tankaksjer er imidlertid meglerhuset mer avmålt.
Samtlige fire tankrederier under meglerhusets dekning får hold-anbefalinger.
Kursmålet på John Fredriksens Frontline er satt til 43 kroner, altså noe lavere enn siste omsatte kurs.
Sa2ri
25.09.2018 kl 15:17 5361

Bi-weekly Report
• Capesize rates have bottomed – Following the recent steep correction in Capesize rates, we believe the Capesize market is about to turn up once again. The recent move saw rates declining ~40% from their recent highs but found strong support at ~15,000/d. Panamax rates remain resilient, trading above 12,000/d despite the weakening Capesize market.
• Atlantic Capesize cargo flow should increase – There has been a lull of Atlantic Capesize fixings in the last several weeks. We believe this is about to change which should lead to higher Capesize rates in the next few months. Seasonality in dry bulk is high, and the fourth quarter very rarely has been weaker than the third quarter, which will average above 22,000/d.
• Capesize rates will move higher but might not reach new highs – The recent correction was deeper than we anticipated, and several risks in global trade have been increasing. Sentiment around global trade has deteriorated following the trade war narrative, and that might put a lid on any strengthening in rates beyond reasonable expectations. We expect November to be the month that a considerable spike might take pace, although the odds of that happening have slightly decreased.
• Trade volumes are not the reason for this year’s increase in rates – Trade volume growth year-to-date is still below recent historical averages. Although average rates are up considerably from 2017, that merely reflects the depressed levels that rates are recovering from. However, supply and demand balance this year is not as favorable as most people were anticipating.
• Fleet growth should end up at ~3% for the year – Despite a relatively manageable orderbook, the total absence of scrapping (less than 0.5% ytd) should lead to ~3% fleet growth for all dry bulk shipping this year. Compare that to our 2.5% trade growth estimate, and one can easily see a more balanced market. We believe 2019 will bring stronger volumes from iron ore, but the strength in coal trading this year might not be repeated to further add support in overall volumes for 2019.
• Short-term outlook positive – We expect Capesize rates to jump above 20,000/day in the short term, and probably move towards 30,000/d as we head into November. Panamax rates should also improve, but to a lesser extent.

http://www.drybulketf.com/reports/9-25-2018.pdf
Kbkristi
27.09.2018 kl 03:38 5025

Alt skal fraktes sjøveien, og nå med lengere distanse, takket være handelskrig :)

Crop chop – China shuns U.S. soybeans amid trade war, turns to Brazil
in Dry Bulk Market,Freight News 27/09/2018
China’s soybean processors are snapping up Brazilian cargoes for shipment in the fourth quarter, curbing purchases of U.S. crops for delivery in North America’s peak marketing season as the trade war between Washington and Beijing intensifies.
That shift away from U.S. beans by China, which takes more than 60 percent of the commodity traded worldwide, will pile further pressure on benchmark Chicago Board of Trade prices after they plumbed 10-year lows last week.
China in July imposed a retaliatory 25-percent import duty on U.S. soybeans as part of the tit-for-tat trade dispute between the world’s top two economies, conflict that gathered steam this week with the introduction of fresh tariffs on other products.
“Chinese buyers are snatching soybeans from Brazil’s domestic oilseed market,” said a Singapore-based trader at an international trading company that runs oilseed processing plants in China.
“They are willing to pay a higher prices for Brazilian beans than what domestic crushers are paying,” he added, declining to be identified as he was not authorised to speak with media.

Brazil’s soybean export season typically ends in August-September after which cargoes from the United States take over the market until March. The South American nation is the world’s top exporter, while the United States is No. 2.
But Chinese importers have this year booked around 12 to 14 million tonnes of Brazilian beans for October-November arrival, according to the trader and an analyst in China. That comes as increases in storage capacity and improved logistics have allowed Brazil to extend its selling season.
Soybeans are crushed to make cooking oil and soymeal, a protein-rich animal feed ingredient.
The landed cost of U.S. beans in China is currently similar to Brazilian soybeans even with the 25-percent tariff, but Chinese crushers are reluctant to take U.S. supply as they fear authorities may not approve cargoes.
“The government’s signal on this is clear – do not buy U.S. beans,” said a senior analyst with a major futures brokerage in China.
“Basically, all shipments for the fourth quarter are from Brazil even though prices of Brazilian beans are very high.”
Premiums for Brazilian beans have shot to a record $2.50 a bushel over the November CBOT contract, which was trading at $8.51-1/4 a bushel at 0655 GMT on Wednesday. That compares with zero premium for freshly harvested U.S. soybeans.
Brazil churned out 119.5 million tonnes of soybeans in 2017/18 and exported 76.7 million tonnes, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

CHANGING TRADE FLOWS
Over the near term, strong Chinese demand could force Brazilian domestic crushers to export their expensive local beans to China and import cheaper supplies from the United States, trade sources said.
Argentine crushers have been following a similar strategy, and recently booked 3-4 cargoes of U.S. soybeans while shipping their own local supplies off to Chinese buyers, according to traders at a recent oilseed conference in China.
“Brazil and Argentina will import soybeans from the United States as they are selling more to China,” said Ole Houe, director of advisory services at brokerage IKON Commodities in Sydney.
China’s purchases from the United States for the beginning of the 2018-19 crop year that began on Sept. 1 are currently a fraction of the long-term average, just as U.S. farmers start harvesting a new record crop estimated by the USDA at over 127 million tonnes.

And the trade war could have long-term ramifications as China looks to cut total full-year soybean purchases for the first time in 15 years, seeking alternatives to soymeal in animal feed.
The country this month cut its forecast for 2018/19 soybean imports to around 84 million tonnes, down from about 93 million tonnes a year earlier.
China’s soybean imports had climbed uninterrupted since 2003/04 as the nation’s rapidly-expanding middle class develops a taste for meats, often produced from livestock given soymeal-based feed.

Source: Reuters (Reporting by Naveen Thukral and Hallie Gu; Editing by Joseph Radford)

En ny bulk-rute med soyabonner fra USA til Argentina og Brasil, bra saker. Stå på Donald.
Kbkristi
27.09.2018 kl 03:52 5014

Asia coal demand drives panamax rates up 7.5%
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 27/09/2018
Panamax dry vessel rates have risen 7.5% over the past week, as tight domestic Chinese coal supply spurs import demand and Indian buyers also look to replenish stocks, participants said on Wednesday.
The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI), which reflects the 60,000-80,000 deadweight tonne segment, was assessed last at 1,639 points, only marginally below 28 August’s eight-month high of 1,643 points.
As a result, the Baltic Dry Index, which tracks all dry bulk markets, was 7% higher on the week, at 1,450 points.
Domestic shipments in China had been hampered by stringent inspections at the nation’s largest coal port of Qinhuangdao, said a dry bulk analyst with a large shipbroking firm.
“As a result, generators are having to buy more from other countries,” he said.
He noted that through the inspections – which largely focus on coal quality, including sulphur and ash content – the government was attempting to show producers, and the wider global market, that it was “on the ball” with regards to environmental issues.
Indian tightness
Vessel rates were also buoyed by “devastating Indian coal market tightness”, said Hans Gunnar Nåvik, senior analyst with Oslo-based StormGeo Nena Analysis.
Stocks at 117 Indian coal-fired plants, monitored by the Central Electricity Authority, were seen last at 11.1m tonnes – which is sufficient for just seven days’ generation and the lowest level since December last year.
“It is likely that import demand is very strong, but due to the weak currency, India is turning to as much ‘bad coal’ as possible, meaning Indonesian low-calorific coal,” he said.
The Indian rupee was last seen at 72.65 versus the US dollar, compared with 70 a month ago and 66 at the same time last year, making dollar-linked coal less attractive for the country’s buyers.
“Increased coal demand from India supported the [panamax] market, with bad weather disrupting vessel schedules and enhancing rates further,” said shipbroker Allied in a note.
Trade war
Analysts also attributed the rise in panamax rates to buoyant soybean exports from Brazil.
“The Brazilians are running down inventories, and the Chinese are just grabbing it,” said the first analyst, noting this was in place of US soybean purchases, which have been hampered by the ongoing trade war between the two countries.
China has placed 25% import tariff on US soybeans, in retaliation to president Donald Trump’s tariff hikes on Chinese goods.
“[East coast South America] is emerging as the main provider of business in the Atlantic,” said shipbroker Intermodal in a note.
Source: Montel
KJEPET
27.09.2018 kl 07:08 4923

Ja, nå begynner markedet, sakte men sikkert, å forstå hva som er i ferd med å skje. Transport av kull vil være en sterk driver når oljeprisen holder seg høy, skrapingen er under oppsving igjen, og IMO2020 opprettholdes som vil gi en kjempeboost på ratene fremover. Shipping vil bli «hot» de neste årene. Og paradoksalt nok, vil oppsvinget vare lengre på grunn av handelskrigen. Rederne er tilbakeholdne med å bestille nye skip, som igjen vil føre til høyere rater over tid.
Kbkristi
27.09.2018 kl 15:02 4359

Ser ikke ut som at folk har fått med seg at ratene på cape er opp 17,4 % de siste 7 dager!
hvasa
27.09.2018 kl 15:10 4338

Enormt press på salgssiden. Var ikke småposter som gikk ut akkurat. Er ratene iferd med å snu allerede?
KJEPET
27.09.2018 kl 15:20 4315

Pust med magen og ta det helt med ro. I april hadde vi aktører som solgte desperat poster på 50000 aksjer om gangen på "best" til 56,25.-. Med litt is i magen hadde de vært 1 million rikere i dag. Du vil alltid finne folk som hopper av så fort man løfter seg noen cm over bakkenivå. Det kalles høydeskrekk.

Syklusen i tørrbulk går helt etter boka, og vi langt unna euforien ennå. De euforiske tilstandene kommer en gang i 2020, og da skal vi selge når den toucher innom 171.- :-)
hvasa
27.09.2018 kl 15:23 4303

Mente nå hvordan ratene gikk nå jeg da, og ikke i 2020 :)
KJEPET
27.09.2018 kl 15:44 4246

Ser den, men det som skjer nå er høydeskrekk/gevinstsikring. En aksje går sjelden rett opp hver dag.