Er det nå neste opptur starter


Connecticut-based Dorian LPG reported net income of $29.4 million for the quarter of its fiscal year ending March 31, 2020, compared to $16 million during the same period last year. Adjusted earnings of 81 cents per share came in well above the consensus forecast for 63 cents per share.

Rates averaged $51,888 per day in the latest quarter, up 175% year-on-year. For the quarter that will end on June 30, Dorian has 75% of its days booked at nearly $50,000 per day, more than double current spot rates.

During the conference call with analysts, Dorian LPG (USA) CEO John Lycouris pointed out that volumes have been strong until this month. First-quarter global volumes of seaborne LPG were up 3.6% year-on-year. Over 50 VLGCs were loaded per month in the U.S. in March and April, and there were 70 loadings in the Middle East Gulf in April, the highest monthly tally since June 2019. Middle East Gulf loadings in May dropped to 54 from 60 in May 2019.

The coronavirus crisis affects VLGC seaborne volumes from both the cargo supply and demand side. On the supply side, OPEC cuts and the shut-ins of U.S. production due to low pricing translate into less LPG available for export, although LPG drawn from stockpiles should temporarily offset production fallout.

According to Dorian LPG Chief Commercial Officer Tim Hansen, “Of course we’re seeing these [crude production] cuts eating into LPG volumes out of the U.S., although it’s too early to say how much and we have not seen an [export cargo] cancellation yet.” Lycouris confirmed that production cuts were also reducing loadings in the Middle East.


Demand-side fallout

On the demand side, about half of LPG is consumed by residential customers for heating and cooking, the other half by industrial propane dehydrogenation (PDH) plants, largely in Asia, that produce propylene for plastics manufacturing. PDH plants use either propane carried by VLGCs or naphtha carried by product tankers as a feedstock, depending on price.

Residential demand for LPG, which falls in the “essentials” category, is likely to remain resilient. However, on the industrial side of the equation, lower crude pricing due to the coronavirus has equated to lower naphtha pricing, making naphtha more attractive to PDH plants than LPG.

During the conference call on Monday of Oslo-listed BW LPG, that company’s executive vice president of commercial operations, Neils Rigault, commented that “obviously, with naphtha prices as low as they are, [Asian buyers] will probably switch back to naphtha.”


In a coronavirus recovery scenario, the price of oil, and thus naphtha, would snap back up — a plus for LPG industrial demand. To some extent, this has already begun. According to Lycouris, “With crude oil prices recovering, we find the propane-to-naphtha spread starting to turn in favor of LPG.”

Uncertain outlook

A number of public shipping company executives have maintained on conference calls that the second half looks better because the worst of the coronavirus has probably passed.

Dorian LPG founder and CEO John Hadjipateras was more circumspect, openly acknowledging the inherent uncertainty.

“We have read many forecasts [on LPG shipping] ranging from a little to very pessimistic. They’re predominantly based on assumptions about a decline in U.S. shale production available for export,” he said. “But will economic activity bounce or crawl back? Will there be permanent demand destruction?”

His answer: “I do not pretend to know which forecast to believe — much less to make them.” Click for more FreightWaves/American Shipper articles by Greg Miller
monitor1
29.06.2020 kl 03:33 2442

https://nos.nl/l/2338823
Den illustrerer at USA ikke er vår venn, og er diktatorisk som aldri før. Selvsagt gir ikke EU etter og kommer gassrøret på plass snart. På flere områder ønsker EU å være mindre avhengig av diktatoriske USA, og det kan man takke sosiopaten for. De viser sitt sanne ansikt, og det er en kardinal dumhet som bare vil føre til større tilnærming til andre nasjoner og proteksjonisme.
Dette er alvorlig for LPG befraktere, som vil iflg. ekspertisen slite Iår og neste år, men når denne pipa åpner kranene vil den forsyne hele EU med 10% av sitt totale behov. Legger man til at Kina har sluttet å importere fra USA i veldig stor grad, så er det ikke rart at Dorian sliter. Skifer i USA lever kun pga. gavepakker, men flør eller senere overtar markedskreftene og tyngdekraften igjen.
Jeg forstår forøvrig ikke at dere må lese om Nordstream2 og dets betydningsfulle effekt på norsk gass via meg og ikke de etablerte medier; jeg har tipset de om dette, men de vil ikke skrive om det...det mest sannsynlige scenarioet er at dette røret vil medføre en forlengelse av priskrigen vi ser idag, med dumping av subsidiert amerikansk gass mot russisk og norsk gass. Det er dårlige nyheter for AVANCE/ BWLPG, og ikke minst Dorian, på kort og mellomlang sikt.
Den eneste triggeren jeg ser er at flere store land søker en overgang fra kull til gass, og at etterspørselen overstiger bygging av nye pipelines etterhvert.
COVID vil forsinke denne utviklingen, så jeg antar at LNG markedet vil være dårlig i 2022 også.

Markedet har nok priset inn deler av dette, men ikke alt, og forutsatt at vi snart vil se en kollaps i aksjemarkeder ( teknologibørsen i USA er nå priset til hele 80 ganger sin forventede inntjening, som er mer enn da IT boblen sprakk), så vil LNG aksjer oppsøke sine ATL er min antagelse.

Jeg må samtidig si at min egen fokus har forflyttet seg fra en gjeldstunget LNG marked til en langt mer likvid LPG marked. Om det er en riktig vurdering får tiden vise.
Jeg angir aldri kursmål for inngang eller utgang, men anser et fall i de norske selskaper ( avance og Bwlpg) på 25% større enn en økning på 25%, så da holder jeg meg unna

Jeg tror også at COVID effekten er undervurdert, og at 0 i renter og voldsomme gavepakker er B12 sprøyter XXL, men at det til slutt er de reelle fortjenester i selskaper som vil tvinge aksjemarkeder nedover. Det siste er synsing, men jeg er ikke villig til å investere når alt er betydelig overpriset.
Jeg sitter 100% cash ( og spådde nedgangen, men bommet helt på viljen til å gi bort alle felleskasser til the 1%). Om ikke sentralbanksjefer og politikere innser at de fører en fascistisk politikk, som allerede medfører stor sosial uro, så vil hele korthuset de bygger nå kollapse, og det tror jeg ikke de tar sjansen på; Det vil være politisk selvmord. Ignorerer de realitetene vil restene av kapitalisme og demokratiet være borte og medføre anarkisme i mange former. En anarkisme som da er full berettiget.
Redigert 29.06.2020 kl 03:59 Du må logge inn for å svare
Springer
29.06.2020 kl 08:28 2296

Blander vi litt LNG og LPG her??
UNIT
29.06.2020 kl 12:05 2133

Endringer på aksjonærlisten til Avance

Jeg tillater meg å lure på det. Nå er Dorian opp nesten 2%, men, hva med våre 2?

Videre opp, nå snart 3,5%. Ser at Avance jager etter.

Ojsan, hva hender "over there"? Snart opp 5%!
Redigert 29.06.2020 kl 16:33 Du må logge inn for å svare
Just me
29.06.2020 kl 16:24 1862

Begge selskapene har vært shortet nå i 2 mnd.. Det er vel hovedårsaken til at lpg i OBX faller mer enn i US.
Dorian ned 50% siden februar, menS våre er vel ned 65%
Just me
29.06.2020 kl 17:38 1785




LPG Carriers: The VLGC spot market ex-US was caught off-guard over the past week as few cargo cancellations led to a rapid exhaustion of the rather lengthy tonnage list. With the US/AG load premium expanding, potential West ballasters improved sentiment in the AG, with spot +32% w/w to $13.5k/d.

Poten $13.324, og Dorian opp nær 6%. Hvilken sykdom lider OSE av?
Kenevil
29.06.2020 kl 18:51 1671

Om ratene fortsetter opp i dette tempoet er det jo veldig positivt!
Kraftig økning her nå. Man kan håpe på positive rater mot slutten av uken!
"VLGC rates bounce off the bottom as US tonnage list depleted.
The VLGC market has been given a bump up from low levels as
demand in the US cut the available tonnage list. The Baltic VLGC
Index was up 23.3% at $27.21 per tonne on Monday, or $14,533 per
day, compared to its last daily assessment."
CatWalk
29.06.2020 kl 22:45 1409

Natural Gas | Oil 29 Jun 2020 | 11:32 UTC Singapore
CHINA DATA: LPG imports from US surge to record high 733,385 mt in May
Highlights
US becomes the largest LPG supplier to China in May
May LPG imports up 8.5% on year to 2.012 million mt

Author
Analyst Cindy Liang cindy.liang@spglobal.com
Editor
Alisdair Bowles
Commodity
Natural Gas, Oil
Singapore — China's LPG imports from the United States soared to 733,385 mt in May, comprising 629,822 mt of propane and 103,563 mt of butane, up from zero a year earlier, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed on June 26.

Gas


Chartering
EAST
As a knock-on effect to the increased activity on shipping seen in the West from last week, the Eastern VLGC market finally came back to life again as well. Several ships have been taken out for 2H July MEG load during the week, and freight rates have slowly started to climb upwards again. Owners’ ideas are now in the USD 30s Baltic (compared to low USD 20s the week before), and time being they would rather send their open ships back West on speculation unless they are able to secure voyages at these sorts of levels in the East. Meanwhile we are awaiting next month’s acceptances from the Middle Eastern suppliers, which are expected to start coming out from this and next week onwards.
WEST
West of Suez, this week has been calmer than last as the market takes a breather. Less inquiries have been seen and players seem to have paused to make sure their programs are lined up properly. Although there are still a few loose ends remaining in July, fixing looks generally over with for this period. Freight has cooled off marginally as the focus turns to August. This is due to slightly more freight length and reduced interest from charterers for the time being.

16.666$/dag

Fortsatt 2 mill short i Bwlpg, eller 1,20%.
Ava ut av lista denne uken dvs at de har dekket seg inn til under 0,5%
Shortere er sikre kjøpere, hold på aksjene