Dry-docking needs for VLGC fleet could help rates, Poten says
Recovery for large LPG carriers will be closely linked to likely slow moving recovery seen in US exports

Around 30% of the trading VLGC fleet is scheduled to go into dry-dock in the next 18 months, Poten says

Poten:16.212$/dag

Har alltid blitt imponert over at noen synes at det er bra å kjøpe på fallende kurs, når konkurrentene stiger kraftig. Det krever litt bedre forklaring i min verden!!! Men så lenge du er fornøyd skal jeg ikke egentlig ikke kommentere mere...

Poten:16.081
Many ship owners have invested heavily in the LPG tanker trade. As such, India, the UAE and USA are expected to be among the main trades to generate demand. In a recent weekly report, ship owner Bancosta Research said that “India is the second largest net importer of propane and butane in the world after China. The Indian government’s push to provide clean cooking fuel to every household also in rural areas, as well as a rising population, will drive LPG consumption in the country to grow to 30.3 mln tonnes by 2025 and 40.6 mln tonnes by 2040, from 22.5 mln tonnes in 2019, according to India’s Oil Secretary M M Kutty. He said the coverage of LPG in the country has now reached close to 90 per cent, rising from about 55 per cent in 2014.

Poten:15.842

Avance - 2020 Annual General Meeting

Avance Gas Holding Ltd (the "Company") advises that the 2020 Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held on August 31, 2020. The record date for voting at the Annual General Meeting is set to July 17, 2020. The notice, agenda and associated material will be distributed prior to the meeting.

Hamilton, Bermuda
July 8, 2020

This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 the Norwegian Securities Trading Act

Fearnleys
East
We are experiencing a relatively flat freight market as the shipping activity in the Middle East seems to have taken a breather so far this week. The handful of ships open on July dates, some of which are likely to slide into August, might potentially look for opportunities in the West. Lay of the land for August will be a bit more clear next week when both Adnoc and Saudi acceptances are expected out. Meanwhile, talks of Indian importers being long product for August might put a dampener on the recently climbing VLGC shipping market.

WEST
West of Suez, the week started off quietly following a long weekend in the US. However, things are beginning to look tighter for 1H August ex US: there are now roughly 10 ships for the period while the number of cargoes which remain uncovered should be similar or greater. Furthermore, vessel ownership is limited to only a few players and this may also be a contributing factor if we see rates edge higher in the coming days.

Ratene er uforandret på 500.000$/måned
Det er flere ledige laster i vest enn det er tilgjengelige skip,dessuten er det få aktører,som igjen kan presse opp fraktprisene👍🏻Avance litt opp nå på fallende børs.Ja,det er en bull kommentar fra meg,men hva fan nå som vi har vært på bunnen i lang tid.Må jo komme gode nyheter før eller siden

LPG – US production down 2% w-o-w
Yesterday, EIA published weekly propane and propylene production, demand and imports figures for the week ending 3 July. Weekly production came in at 2.189mbd, down by ~2% w-o-w, but up by 13% from the YTD low recorded in early May. The weekly production figure is about 11% below the all-time-high figure recorded in the first week of 2020. Inventories were up by ~2.2m barrels, and the current level of ~76.8m barrels is about 8% higher than the 5yr average and ~6% higher than the level seen a year ago.

LPG cylinder refills to PMUY to boost Q3 LPG consumption - traders
Poten:15.897$/day

Author Frank Zeng
Editor Norazlina Jumaat
Commodity Agriculture, Natural Gas, Oil
Singapore — India could see a renewed appetite for LPG imports after the government approved on July 8 to extend the provision of free LPG cylinder refills for Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana, or PMUY, beneficiaries, traders and market sources said July 9.

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A nationwide lockdown that began on March 25 to curb the spread of the coronavirus had affected the livelihood of many lower income households in India, and around 80 million households under the PMUY were entitled to three free 14.2 kg LPG cylinders from April 1 to June 30, Platts reported earlier.

The giveaway was intended to discourage households, especially those living in the rural areas, to switch back to using freely available biomass and woodchips as fuel for cooking.

The July 8 announcement was unexpected, market sources said, as the Indian government had earlier said it would not be extending the PMUY scheme beyond June.

In its latest statement, the government said the scheme will be extended by another three months till September 30.

"Not all rural households have adequate access to these cylinders, some households consume less than one cylinder a month, so many PMUY beneficiaries have not fully utilized their quotas," an Indian LPG importer said July 9. "The extension is meant to help those who have not fully benefited from the scheme."

Domestic LPG consumption falls below expectations
Indian LPG imports surged in the second-quarter, as state-owned refiners Indian Oil Corp., Hindustan Petroleum Corp Ltd and Bharat Petroleum Corp Ltd sought an additional 776,000 mt of spot LPG for delivery between April and June at end-March and early April.

Domestic demand for the cooking fuel was expected to spike over the same period to meet the estimated increase in demand from the LPG giveaway.

However, India has had to cancel multiple LPG cargoes for May and June arrival with suppliers in the Middle East amid reports of high inventories after over-estimating what amounted to only a modest increase in LPG consumption over April and May, Platts reported earlier.

India imported 1.508 million mt of LPG in May, up 9.5% from April, and the highest in eight months, while consumption rebounded 8.7% to a four-month high of 2.32 million mt, the latest data released by the Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell, or PPAC, showed on June 22.

PPAC is expected to announce India's LPG imports and consumption for June next week.

India pauses spot imports for several months on high stocks
"Although LPG consumption in the country was expected to rise 16% year on year in the month of June based on our estimates, [it did not] mainly due to June being a slow month in terms of historical consumption. So you are comparing against a smaller base," an Indian LPG producer said.

Meanwhile, active buying of cargoes for delivery over April to July kept India well covered till August, and market sources had earlier said that India's LPG importers would resume spot imports only over August-September.

"In absolute terms, the increase in household consumption from the government incentive scheme has been modest, and inventories remain high. We expect to see a gradual drawdown of stocks to pre-lockdown levels only from middle of July, and import demand to resume end-August," the source added.

The shipping community has echoed the same, with Gibson shipping brokerage reporting a 22% year-on-year increase in India's LPG imports with a lengthy waiting time of more than 10 days on average in June.

As many as 15 LPG carriers were reportedly waiting to discharge in the first week of July, the report said.

Poten:17.264..siger sakte men sikkert oppover.

Fint spring fra sidste uge. Jeg regner med, at vi fortsætter stille og roligt opad og kursen gør det samme. Jeg vil ikke være overrasket, hvis vi i november igen er over 40 kr. Det gik stærkt sidste år, da raterne gik opad.

Er der nogen, der ved om Indien er fortsat med, at stille gratis gas til rådighed for alle husstande under corona? Desværre kæmper Indien stadig med smitte. Dog kan det være med til, at øge efterspørgslen på LPG.

India annonserte tidligere at-gass til alle programmet-var over,men for en stund tilbake kom dem med kontrabeskjed om at dem kommer til å fortsette med det en god stund til.Der er flere store konsumenter der ute.Kina på vei tilbake,Sør-Korea og mange andre land,satser på LPG.Hjelper godt på at oljeprisen stiger 👍🏻Så slipper vi å konkurrere mot den der Nafta.

LPG Carriers: VLGC spot rates ex-AG rose another 12% over the past week to reach $17.7k/d, with continued delays in India playing into owners’ hands. The tonnage list in the West is mainly controlled by a handful of owners, thus pushing rates higher.

Poten:17.985

Ava har 15% av flåten på faste kontrakter til 35$ dagen.
Ratene opp 7% i dag til 19$
Da er vi vel over breakeven på inntjening som er 22$.

Shorterne har dekket seg, India kjøper fortsatt store mengder Lpg som de gir til folket pga Corona.

Poten:19.136
Kryper sakte men sikkert oppover

Begynner å ligne noe dette. Vurderer å gå inn igjen men kun på s vake dager

https://fearnpulse.com/#3

Positive nyheter her nå.
Bør bare være en vei videre for kursen videre.

Poten:20.763.

Fearnleys: 23.300.

Poten:22.522

Dejligt, så tjenes der penge igen. Der vil komme en kraftig reprising af kursen snart.

👍🏻Håper det fortsetter slik,men det er ikke sikkert.God helg

Tenkte at man egentlig hadde god tid i avance til å komme inn igjen. Det kan fortsatt skje at dette er bare en liten rekyl. Og at neste runde ned er der riktigeste kjøpet.er ferie på meg så følger ikke med så mye om dagen

Ikke ofte jeg er like spent på ukens rate-nyheter.Når vi 30.000$/dag i løpet av denne uken,eller skal det ned igjen

Rutene går oppover og vil være en god del høyere i august allerede enn hva de er nå.

Poten:23.699

Om ratene fortsetter opp slik så kommer høsten til å bli meget bra!
Nå tjener selskapene penger igjen.

Poten:25.346
Videre opp📈

👍 meget positivt

Hva er hensikten med å poste en ett år gammel artikkel fra 20.08.2019?
https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/082019-firm-western-freight-rates-pull-lpg-vessels-to-us-to-avoid-weak-asian-rates

Det er faktisk ingen hensikt.Derfor slettet jeg den da jeg oppdaget det.
Her er en rykende fersk rapport:
Rundt 33.000$/dag nå
Chartering
EAST
A continuous introduction of more freight requirements from Indian majors has kept the owners busy this week in the East. Meanwhile, the availability of ships with firm discharge programs up until mid/second half August remains few, and hence some traders have already started to check the market for freight ideas for last decade August loading although this is more than one month ahead. Needless to say, freight rates are under pressure, and last done deal in the market was concluded at a significant premium to last posted Baltic.

WEST
Much of the same story goes for West of Suez where at the time of writing there is no firm positions left on August dates, this could change depending on turnaround for vessels discharging in Europe. Some already have made moves for early September loading laycans, but most owners are comfortable waiting with giving out firm positions as right now time is on their side and scheduling is very blurry this far ahead.


LPG Rates
Spot Market

(USD/Month)


Click rate to view graph

VLGC

84'
$1,000,000
$300,000

Vært fint med en link til artikkelen.
Er påkrevet ifølge HO-reglementet!

https://fearnpulse.com/#3

Her renner det inn penger med de ratene.og høsten har ikke begynt, noe som innebærer høyere rater. Vi får håpe på at vinteren blir ekstra kald i 2020/2021.

Poten:26.839

Spriker fra rapporten fra Fearnleys,men trenden er oppadgående.

Er godt tilfreds med at købe yderlig op i 18.60. Tror snart vi får en rekyl med de stigende rater.

USA: PROPANLAGRENE VAR 82,4M FAT FORRIGE UKE (80,3)

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Propan/propylenlagrene i USA var 82,4 millioner fat i forrige uke, sammenlignet med 80,3 millioner fat uken før.

Det viser tall fra amerikanske energimyndigheter (EIA), publisert onsdag ettermiddag.

Videre var propan/propylen-nettoproduksjonen på 2,214 millioner fat pr dag, mot 2,260 millioner fat uken før.

Eksporten var på 1,015 millioner fat propan/propylen pr dag, mot 0,901 millioner fat pr dag uken før.

Poten: 31 383 usd/d.
Dette blir knallbra.

Det er jo en voldsom stigning, det er helt perfekt👍

Nu må den snart stikke op mod 30 kr. Flere har fremhævet at futures ser gode ud. Er der en god forklaring på den store stigning?

Fortsatt kjøpsmulighet før denne stikker oppover.

Jeg er positiv til Avance nå. Ratene har strammet seg hurtig til de siste par ukene og LPG rederiene er i profitabelt territorium. Dersom ikke børsene tryner generelt ser jeg på Avance som en 100% kandidat over en 4 måneders horisont.

Trenger bare en meglerhus anbefalling eller 2 nå, så stikker denne av. Med rater 30k+ over litt tid så kommer de ganske fort. Ratene gått mye fortere enn alle forventet, og "publiken" våkner nok etterhvert.

Poten: 34 644 usd/day.
Avance skal være over 22 nok neste uke.

Jeg forstår ingenting, hvis vi ikke skal langt op i næste uge. Vi skal huske at Avance har 15 pct på fast rate på 35.000 $ resten af året. Jeg tør næsten ikke sige det, men det begynder allerede nu, at lugte af udbytte efter Q3. Husk at penge blev lagt til side efter Q1.

Kursen bør snart begynde, at gå kraftig op.

Det er fra samtlige analytikere og andre forsåsegpåere, sagt at LPG-produksjonen i USA lider under lav oljepris og kutt i oljeproduksjonen. Som er fremgår av EIA sine oversikter over produksjon og lager i USA så har det vært tilnærmet full produksjon siden mars og lagrene er snart ATH for sesongen. I tillegg er nå ratene rundt 35000$ per dag, og det før august, og ut av det blå. Jeg tror Lpg-fraktaksjer kommer til å eksplodere kursmessig frem mot nyttår når det viser seg at ratene tar seg opp til det dobbelte av dagens... Fjorårets bonanza vil overgås av årets. Avance står i 80 i november. Bw Lpg i 120.

Måtte du bare få rett.
Eneste skjæret jeg ser i sjøen er en ny omfattende og ødeleggende Covid oppblomstring.
Det kan ødelegge for etterspørselen.
Slår dette til må vi kanskje utsette kursmålene dine med ca ett år?
Greit for meg, jeg kjøper på disse nivåene.