Just a few thoughts of IOX:

I have bought my first IOX shares prior to the Paris Arbitration loss and although I after that realised what humongously incompetent, ignorant and morally questionable leadership the company had I kept my few shares since the fields which the owns a pure gold. I kept them basically as lottery tickets. Then came inevitable, take-over attempt by old leadership and the shareholder revolt. Very interesting times. The shareholder revolt won and some very hard decisions had to be made and most people lost hope and considering the following years nobody can blame them. I started to accumulate and have been accumulating up to now. Very, very risky investment but the new majority owners and new leaders were everything the old leadership was not; Extremely well connected politically in South America, real local experience of running local companies and turning them around.

And now? Let’s look at the two extreme cases; the best and the worst:

The best case; Everything goes as planned and we can take the plans at face value:
- Vikingo pump is fixed and production increased.
- Mana gas pump is installed and production increased.
- The drilling program is completed
- Production is 10000 – 12000
- Time line 2020-2022
- Share price… scared to think about that

The worst case:
- Vikingo is never fixed
- Mana gas pump is never installed
- Drilling program never starts
- 20202 the Bonds are converted to shares and current share holder wiped out
- Timeline 2020
- Share price 0 NOK

Reality will probably be somewhere in between but IF two things happen: 1; Vikingo is fixed 2. Another producing well is drilled in LL-47 than I would say the leadership has removed the last doubt about their ability to overcome obstacles, having an iron grip on the finances and delivering what they promise by gringing it out without succumbing to pressure from shareholders to do fancy flashy moves to pump up the price. Solid performance overall.

And although my screen is already flashing more green than red if the two above happen than it is a HUGE increase towards the best case scenario. Now I will go fishing:)