Her er analyse fra PAS:
Cloudberry offers exposure to the Norwegian hydro-market and the fast growing wind market in Sweden. Through the announced transaction, the company will 2.6x its producing portfolio which provides strong, underlying cash flow going forward. In addition, we expect the Develop segment to see accelerated growth and improved avg. sales prices. On our estimates, the current market pricing is supported by the existing production portfolio with limited value attached to the company’s development portfolio. Overall, we estimate a SOTP of NOK 23/share.



Share price supported by existing production base

} We value the Production and Under Construction assets on a DCF basis, applying a WACC of 4.1%
} The current production base is expected to generate NOK 30-40m in FCF per year on assets that are expected to produce for more than 50 years
} With a payout ratio of 50% and 2% yield-pricing this equals NOK 15/share (~10% above share price)

Considerable upside from further growth
} Cloudberry has a solid track record of maturing and developing renewable projects, divesting 35 MW p.a. the past ten years at NOK ~1m per MW with a high return on capital
} With improved access to funding following the listing and a substantial backlog/pipeline, we expect the growth to accelerate going forward
} We assume the sale of ~60 MW per year on improved pricing of NOK 1.5m per MW (still below the NOK 2m per MW realised at Rändsliden windfarm). We value the Develop segment at NOK 11/share net of SG&A, which is based on an EBITDA of NOK 62m and EV/EBITDA of 10.0x in-line with Swedish peers
} Going forward, the company may decide to keep more of the assets as it develops new projects. If Cloudberry is able to 2-4x the size of the production base, we estimate that this would add NOK 40-150m of FCF per year and lift our valuation of its producing assets to NOK 18-23/share.