Har du snakket med din Amerikanske venn nå igjen?

Hurricane Laura poses biggest threat to U.S. oil in 15 years

Hele artikkel Reuters

An Exxon spokesman did not have immediate comment. If its Baytown plant fully halts processing, total shutdowns would hit more than 2.3 million bpd."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-storm-laura-energy/hurricane-laura-poses-biggest-threat-to-us-oil-in-15-years-idUSKBN25L1VL

Templeton Emerging Markets
NYSE: EMF
Følg
15,50 USD +0,22

https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=quote+ticker+EMF&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8

Ja, vanskelig å forstå? Contago ødelegger hele markedet. Man får skyhøye rater i spikes når det pågår, men er bare flaks når man treffer en slutning på ratetopp. ADS er perfekt eksempel på det. Jeg ønsker et sterkt marked som drar nytte av lavt antall nybestillinger fremover og mangel på tonnasje. Vil ha jevnt høye rater over lengre tid som det lå an til å bli før corona kom.
JH og Clieves mener at dette er ødelagt grunnet corona og contango, og man får først en ny supersyklus i 2022-2023. Forhåpentligvis før. Kommer det en ny contangorunde med noen sky høye ratespikes så blir aksjekrusen litt høyere og markedet forblir ødelagt en god del lengre frem enn 2022. Akkurat nå har vel Clieves truffet på omtrent alt som er ?

Enig i at vi ikke ønsker Contango, men når det gjelder Cleaves så har han vel bommet på omtrent alt som er :p
For å nevte fem ting;
1) Dommedagsscenarioet hvor markedet var råttent også i 2022, basert på vedvarende katastrofale TCE uten særlig skraping.
2) Høy CBE for HUNT i 2021 selv om selskapet hadde annonsert reduksjon ifbm finansiering og refinansiering.
3) Dommedagsprofeti for hvor lav TC skulle bli i Q3 (derav hans glede over at enkelte ruter nå ser ut til å ha slutninger der han mente at snittet ville ligge)
4) Target prices endret nesten fra uke til uke, over hele fjøla. Langt større endringer enn hva aksjekursene har funnet på av sprell
5) Q2/20 forecast for VLCC dumpet fra ca 105k til 80k (i dommedagsutgivelsen)

Jeg liker gjerne å vise til Cleaves selv jeg, men da fordi at han p.t fremstår som pessimisten blant analytikerne (og så har han mye godsaker i bunn som man kan benytte selv om man er uenig i konklusjonen). Skjønt nå har han jo korrigert seg saftig inn (bullmarket H2/2021 i stedet for 2022, CBE for HUNT redusert osv) så nå kan jeg kanskje ikke bruke han som worst case scenario lenger

Innlegg på et forum i USA

Crude Demand Makes Surprise Recovery

I was going to highlight some key sentences, but the whole article is worth the 2-minute read:


Crude Demand Surprise Recovery

Despite projections that the coronavirus pandemic would hasten peak oil demand, global consumption for the commodity has rebounded by an astounding 13 million barrels per day in the past four months, according to a new study.

Global oil demand has now recovered to 89 per cent of what it was before the COVID-19 pandemic crushed oil markets and oil prices as commuters stayed home and air traffic ground to a near halt, IHS Markit analysts said in a report Tuesday. The energy research firm is now estimating that oil demand growth would recover to between 92 per cent and 95 per cent of pre-pandemic levels even without a vaccine by the first quarter of 2021.

Oil demand will likely stay at that level, between 92 million and 95 million barrels per day, until the virus is contained or effective vaccines are developed. Pre-pandemic oil demand had climbed to around 100 million bpd.

“We were surprised (oil demand) has gone up even with the surge in U.S. cases in June and July,” Jim Burkhard, vice-president and head of crude oil research at IHS Markit, told the Financial Post.

Burkhard said his firm had previously expected crude oil demand to rebound but also expected the coronavirus pandemic would be better contained by this point. He said global oil demand has rebounded primarily on the back of European and Asian economies reopening.

In the U.S., where there have been close to 5.8 million cumulative cases and 177,773 deaths according to Johns Hopkins University data, demand for crude has also rebounded sharply.

Burkhard said the move by U.S. governments to loosen COVID -19 restrictions before the virus was constrained combined with “fatigue with social distancing” has driven the oil demand rebound in the country.

Mobility data from Apple Inc. shows that car trips in California, the most populous U.S. state, declined by over 60 per cent in March when the coronavirus pandemic forced lockdown orders, but trips by car have fully recovered. Car trips are up six per cent more now in the state than at the start of the year.

“There’s been record oil demand growth. It’s only a record because of how low demand sank in April,” Burkhard said, warning that he expects global oil demand is now approaching a “plateau” because many commuters are still working from home and air travel hasn’t recovered.

It would take an effective vaccine or better containment of the coronavirus pandemic before oil demand fully recovered because air travel hasn’t recovered and many would-be commuters are still working from home, Burkhard said.

A full recovery would be contingent on how quickly a vaccine could be developed, he said.

“The reason oil demand collapsed was behavioural change,” he said. “Those behavioural changes would strengthen the trend of working from home.”

If an effective vaccine is developed in the near term, and people return to their work commutes, air travel plans and pre-virus activities, a full rebound in oil demand is likely.

“The longer it goes on, the more permanent behavioural changes we’ll see,” Burkhard said.

On the supply side of the equation, both Burkhard and Kevin Birn, IHS Markit’s vice-president for crude oil markets, note that production from the U.S. is set to decline sharply — by three million barrels per day this year. By contrast, oil supply in Canada is rebounding and could potentially gain some market share in U.S. refining centres.

“From everything we can glean at this point, we see oilsands production largely in recovery and in different states of recovery,” Birn said. “By and large, we believe that the oilsands assets are largely in tact and will be able to ramp up.”

Oilsands investment has fallen sharply in recent years, even before the pandemic, and is expected to decline again this year. However, an Aug. 19 report from the Canadian Energy Research Institute expects oilsands production to grow despite recent challenges and turmoil in crude oil markets this year.

“Even before the pandemic, the decline in global oil prices, surging crude inventories and geopolitics have had an impact on the crude oil industry and slowed the pace of upstream investment around the world — including oilsands development in Canada,” the CERI report noted.

The CERI study forecasts that oilsands production will fall this year but continue to grow over the next 19 years. Under its most aggressive growth scenario, CERI projects oilsands supply will grow from 3.1 million bpd to reach 4.7 million bpd in 2039. Under its slowest growth scenario, the think-tank expects oilsands supply will peak at 4.3 million bpd by 2039.

#VLCC -6% to $8k/d
#Suezmax -4% to $8k/d
#Aframax -6% to $5k/d
#LR2 +5% to $19k/d
#LR1 +0% to $14k/d
#MR +99% to $17k/d

Finner ikke i farten at/hva/om han spådde noe konkret for Q3 - ut over at ratene skulle ned (duh), men vi kan ta en titt på hans spådommer for Q2;
"Our previous forecast from late April was for VLCCs to earn $75k/day in May and June on average whereas we now forecast a $30k/d average for the remainder of 2Q20" (20.05.2020 side 3). Se den mot rapporten 28.06.2020 så gikk spot ratene omsider under 30k før uka før det, og snittraten for andre halvdel av Q2 var milevis over hva Cleaves spådde...

Dette er ikke helt sammenfallende datoer (mye av dette er inkl første halvdel av Q2), men;
INSW = 71,7k
EURN = 81,5k
OET = 98k
Snitt på 30k?

Er det ikkje bedrd butikk å investere direkte i andelskjøp av oljetanker enn å håpe på at aksjekursane går opp
Då sete du med faste forutsigbare inntekter ???
Mellom 50 og 80 % av invisterinsum på 2 år

FRO - Den MEST skortede aksjen på OSE - Kan bli moro i morgen

https://shortnordic.com/index_norway.php

Dette skulle dere skjønnt år contango startet og ble så enorm som den ble, at rater krakker etter contano er barneskolelære i tank, men i setedet for å innse realitetene på piken fortstte meglere å hausse å lurte amatærer til å kjøpe på topp.
Skal man ha tank skal man eie clean selskaper.der får du nå effekten fra forbedret etterspørsel umiddelbart, stortank er ødelagt i lang tid da overhenget av tilbakevendte vlcc vil legge press i lang tid.

Ikke dumt dette, får håpe shorterne får BLØ

FRO: DEKKET 76% AV SPOT VLCC-DAGER I 3.KV PÅ USD 60.900/DAG

Oslo (TDN Direkt): Frontline har dekket 76 prosent av driftsdagene for VLCCer
i spotmarkedet i tredje kvartal 2020 til tidscertepartiekvivalente rater (TCE) på
60.900 dollar pr dag, ifølge rederiets kvartalsrapport torsdag.

For suezmaxskipene i spotmarkedet er 77 prosent av driftsdagene dekket til rate på 29.500 dollar pr dag i kvartalet.

For LR2-skipene i spotmarkedet er 67 prosent av driftsdagene dekket til rater på 14.500 dollar pr dag i kvartalet.

Frontline venter at spot TCE for hele tredje kvartal 2020 vil bli lavere enn det som nå er kontraktsfestet som følge av ballastdager mot slutten av tredjekvartal og svakere rater.

For 2 timer siden :

Hurricane Laura Moving Inland as an Extremely Dangerous Category 4 Storm Near Lake Charles, Louisiana

LIVE coverage: Hurricane Laura makes landfall near Texas-Louisiana border with ‘unsurvivable surge’

https://kvia.com/weather/weather-news/2020/08/26/live-updates-hurricane-laura-strengthens-to-category-4-storm-unsurvivable-storm-surge-expected/

Ratene er i alle fall ødelagt for en god stund. Hvor lenge er vanskelig å spå, men jeg tror ikke vi ser noen ny nedgang tilsvarende 2016 og kommer nok fortere tilbake enn forrige runde grunnet lavt antall nybygg i bestilling. Vil anta det kommer en liten boost i det øyeblikket man ser en løsning i coronaproblematikken. Spørsmålet er når man bør begynne å handle mye. Synes aksjekursene holder seg for godt til de lave ratene som er nå, og en sesongmessig liten oppgang i ratene vil nok ikke ha noen stor innvirkning på aksjekursen.

Category 4 Laura is on track to surpass Katrina; hundreds of thousands flee area

BEAUMONT, Texas?

Hurricane Laura barreled toward the Texas and Louisiana coasts late Wednesday as a
vicious Category 4 storm?nearing a Category 5?threatening what forecasters described
as "unsurvivable" flooding and widespread wind damage.

Laura was poised to strike the heart of the U.S.'s fuel-making and chemicals production,
much of which is located in low-lying areas along the Gulf Coast. Nearly half of the
nation's refining capacity is on the Gulf Coast, federal data show, with about half of that
within Laura's potential path, analytics firm IHS Markit said.

Refineries, chemical plants and ports closed in preparation for the hurricane's arrival,
*** including Saudi Arabian Oil Co.'s Motiva refinery, the nation's largest fuel-making facility. ****

Laura is a storm of historic proportions, with wind speed at landfall on track to ** surpass ***
Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which made landfall near New Orleans as a Category 3 storm.
The western Gulf Coast is less densely populated than the New Orleans area, though like
Katrina, Laura was expected to make landfall in the dead of night, complicating any last-minute
evacuation or rescue efforts.

Laura is expected to produce waves as high as 20 feet along portions of the Louisiana coast with
as much as 15 inches of rainfall. The city of Lake Charles, La., braced for as much as 15 feet of flooding,

Finnes det noen Graf Gurus her som kan '' oversette / forklare betrakninger, innlegg i Uniten

Speculating on the NASDAQ

https://www.investorvillage.com/groups.asp?mb=19168&mn=287069&pt=msg&mid=21067060

Jeg er overrasket over at tidenes beste resultat bare blir tatt med et skuldertrekk i markedet! Særlig når det også forteller er de venter et så godt markedet i årene fremover. Utbytte er også bra; og de beholder samtidig mye penger på konto.
Er det shorterne som styrer dette nå?

FRO er LETT å styre, gitt, så få aksjer totalt på Floaten.

HOLD eller kjøp mer, På både kort, middels og lang sikt ( 1 år ) blir FRO et
eventyr IGJEN, som i gamle dager.

Den som ikke ser dette, UTEN, selv med en Korona vaksine, fortår jeg hvordan
tenker; gitt

FAKTA.

FAKTA er hvorfor jeg deltar her. Mange gode innlegg, ikke minst Linker som en person vanskelig
å komme over alene.

Flere som saumfarterer FAKTA er veldig bra.

SLUTT med Synsing, meneinger som ikke er Grunngitt etc.

Det har ingen verdi for noen her, KUN Fakta, så hver og en
gjøre opp sin egen mening og Investere etter sitt Eget Hode,
det store, for gutta..... jentene tar det på Intiuasjon, og det er
i Hvertfall noe vi gutta bør merke oss. He he

Rå inntjening.
P/E 2,6
P/S 1,36
"Rett ut". En stund siden multiplene var på dette nivået. Da er telleren for lav eller nevneren for høy.

Så hva mener du Surik, handler du Fro på disse nivåer?
Ratene er nå SÅ lave at det neppe går dypere.

Vanligvis handler jeg på denne tiden av året, men jeg har litt høydeskrekk nå. P/E på S&P500 ligger vel rundt 25.
Vil derfor ha litt mer sikkerhetsmargin. Setter kjøp på 0,8 x NAV (64 kroner).

Jeg har også fått telefon fra dem flere ganger, vurderer å gå inn der. Men skulle gjerne hørt fra noen som har erfaring med dem.

Kan vi bli enige om hvilken tråd vi skal bruke fremover på FRO ?
Kushner: 100% possible, and logical, for all 22 Arab states to recognize Israel
Concluding historic US-Israeli visit to Abu Dhabi, White House adviser says the ‘vocal minority’ against UAE’s normalization with Israel will become more isolated
Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner predicted Tuesday that all other Arab countries will gradually follow the United Arab Emirates in normalizing ties with Israel, causing the “vocal minority” that opposes the move to become increasingly isolated in the region.

Asked in an interview with the UAE’s WAM news agency whether he believed all 22 Arab states could eventually recognize Israel, US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law replied: “100 percent.”

https://www.timesofisrael.com/kushner-vocal-minority-against-uae-normalization-will-become-more-isolated/?utm_source=kushner-vocal-minority-against-uae-normalization-will-become-more-isolated&utm_medium=desktop-browser&utm_campaign=desktop-notifications#

S&P Uniten er jo KUN store Blue Chip
Har ingenting å gjøre vis a vie FRO

Vi så jo at Dirty Crude tankere gikk stikk motsatt av børsen, når
gikk i dass.

Alle visste vi at dette var forbigående og i det lange løp, og jo
lenger Corona trusselen ligger over hele Gløden, så er disse
tankrederiene i en unik situasjon.

Nedbetalt vesentlig av gjeld, Enorm cash flow; og har kassa full
av kontanter....

Arab World and Israel, another one, more detailed. IF true, Peace IMO could be possible
Jared Kushner: Abraham Accord 'big turn for optimism' in Middle East

Speaking to 'The National' in Abu Dhabi, the White House senior adviser outlines the benefits of historic breakthrough between the UAE and

The Abraham Accord agreed by the UAE, Israel and the US is "a big turn for optimism in the Middle East and throughout the world", White House senior adviser Jared Kushner said on Tuesday.

Speaking to The National in Abu Dhabi after he led the visit of a US-Israeli delegation to Abu Dhabi, which arrived on the first commercial flight between the UAE and Israel on Monday, Mr Kushner said the biggest part of this "historic breakthrough" is that it has inspired people “to see that peace is possible”.

The agreement was announced after a joint call on August 13 between Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

As part of the agreement, Israel will halt annexation of Palestinian territories in exchange for establishing diplomatic ties with the UAE.
"What we had through this agreement was two leaders breaking a barrier that many in this region thought would never be breakable," Mr Kushner said before leaving the UAE capital to continue his tour of the region, with stops in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia.

"So, not just in the Middle East, are now countries who were not thinking of normalizing relations with Israel, thinking of forming a relationship and doing things they would not have thought to do a couple of weeks ago."

“There's a lot of envy in the region that the United Arab Emirates took this step and we now have access to Israeli agriculture technology, security business. The opportunity in tourism. And so a lot of people would like to follow that now. ”

Mr Kushner stressed the significance of the agreement globally.
”We find that in all of our other files in the US, people aspire for peace and they see how well received it was and they see how much the world wants peace. And so people are feeling like, anything's possible, ”he said.

He also said the agreement was testament to Mr Trump's leadership.
"He'll negotiate, but he'll do the right thing and he'll get results that nobody else has been able to get."

The UAE remains committed to the collective Arab position that calls for establishing an independent Palestinian state with occupied East Jerusalem as its capital.

Mr Kushner said Washington had approached the Palestinian-Israeli conflict "with a very rational set of solutions and prescriptions", which includes a two-state solution.

"President Trump's vision is a two-state solution… that properly recognizes Israel's security threats and how to mitigate them. But then also deals with the fact that you can not just draw a line and then expect people to get along. You have to also empower the Palestinian people both through their culture, their institutions and then also through their economy, ”he said.
However Mr Kushner stressed the need to look at a wider possibility for regional peace. “I think that if you did one element without the others, I do not think it would be successful in the long term. But if you can work together on the whole package, I think it's a recipe for the Palestinian people to really thrive, have self-determination, have the state of their own. Live securely, live in peace, you know, get along with the Israelis, integrate into the region, and have tremendous economic opportunity. "

Mr Kushner said it was "easy to misunderstand" Mr Trump's commitment to the Middle East amid speculation over America's level of engagement in the region. However, the president has "been abundantly clear" about the main priorities for the US and for his administration. A top priority being tackling Iran's destabilizing behavior.

“If you look at where Iran is today, everywhere they are, it's a horror show. Right there in Yemen, Yemen's destabilized, they were playing around in Syria, they were playing in Iraq, which was destabilized. They have a strong foothold in Lebanon, and you have what's happening to the government there, ”Mr Kushner said.

Senior White House adviser Jared Kushner, center right, and U.S. National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien, center left, pose for a photo with UAE Air Force's Maj. Gen Falah Al Qahtani ,, and other officials at Al Dhafra airbase in Abu Dhabi. Reuters

Those countries that were working to lessen Iran's influence were "starting to get off their back feet and thrive a little bit", he said.

Part of the effort to rein in Iran is America’s diplomatic push to renew a UN arms embargo on Tehran which expires next month.

“It's a very clear pathway to snapping back the resolutions because Iran has clearly been doing all types of nefarious things that are destabilizing the region, at least an intent, and that's something that we have been pursuing very vigorously. I do not think the world will become a safer place if Iran now has access to more advanced weaponry. ”

Making sure ISIS did not make a resurgence is another top priority for Mr Trump, according to Mr Kushner. Another is countering extremism and extremist ideology.

https://www.thenational.ae/world/the-americas/jared-kushner-abraham-accord-big-turn-for-optimism-in-middle-east-1.1071338

Ja, tank har gått motstrøms og klart seg bra de siste korreksjoner pga. høye rater, gode utsikter og et samstemt analytikerkorps. Men er ikke så sikker på at det skjer ved en eventuell runde ned nå. Børsene er høye, og endel aksjonærer med kort vei til salgs knappen.
Men det er jo som alltid vanskelig å spå tank markedet..

Veldig mange investorer er redd for andre runde med Korona.

Konvensjonelle, såkalte, Blue Chips firmaer kan gå rett i dass igjen.

Tank, Crude, har tjent enormt med penger i 3 kvartaler nå, ja, 3dje kvartal
er skipene fixed spot, fremdeles på vei til sin destinasjon, for det meste
til Kina og Feast,

Hvor vil du sette pengene dine ?

Blue chip, som kan dundre ned 80 %, som vi har sett nylig, og etter
min mening er nåværende verdier kun '' blåst opp '', delvis pga.; igjen
enorme summer Feds i Uniten SPRITER opp .. bla. ved kjøp av hva
som kan vise seg å være Junk obligasjoner, samt, utsteder Store
Bonds på vegne av UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

Se på verdien av $, det er en eneste grunn for det .

Uff da, blir en nedtur imorgen også da:
https://e24.no/boers-og-finans/i/RRPwo8/frontline-sjefen-frykter-tung-hoest-i-tank-mer-usikkert-enn-noensinne

Ja, det ser ikke så lovende ut på kort sikt. Er nok ikke så dumt å lytte til den utskjelte Hannisdahl. Har gradvis redusert de siste dagene og sitter nå primært med Euronav innen tank. Får satse på at han får rett også når det gjelder bulk, for der har jeg økt i dag.

Nei, den meld er jo mat for shorterene.

USD 5,3/d
https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/1975593/PDB/September%202020/September%202,%202020.pdf?utm_campaign=Poten%20Daily%20Briefing&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=94448583&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_Phi1EJxV2DcrS02t5Lxhm2zTUsNk9edk0SPbEnsIPHwR6_H8wTHl5EXsIcgJTDpSCyp1s4tbjRx7inNhMLpOsuNbq-g&utm_content=94448583&utm_source=hs_email

Ser at Suezmax-ratene nå er høyere enn VLCC-ratene. Er ikke det rimelig spesielt? Noen som husker om det har skjedd ofte?

Ja, det skjedde også sist det var avslutning av stor Vlcc Contango, tar mange måneder å spise ut overhenget

#VLCC (TD3C) -27% to $6.6k/d

Det gikk altså dypere.
How low can you go?

det er normalt og skjer ofte. ofte

Hannisdahl.. han halser alltid etter. hør heller på analytikere som vet hva de snakker om. det er mitt råd.

dere må nesten forstå at vi definitivt ønsker contango. backwardation er negativt for olje,- og tankmarkedet.
det dere egentlig forsøker å si er at dere ikke onsker en så STERK contango som fører til mye flytende lager. men også det blir helt feil. problemet er jo selvsagt ikke at båter ligger som flytende lager; problemet er hvordan oljemarkedet beveger seg og hvordan traderne tenker når de skal ta pengene av bordet. i denne syklusen var problemet at oljeprisen falt så mye at ton/mile behovet forvitret fordi produksjoen ble stupet og rafinørene kuttet runs. da falt bunnen i markedet bort og båtene som kommer ut av lagring går inn i et bunnløst marked. hadde contangoen vært drevet av ekstrem-etterspørsel og ikke fall-i-etterspørsel ville selvsagt historien vært en helt annen.

contango, det vil vi ha. det fører tiol lengre seilingsdistanser og lavere fart som igjen gir høyere fleet ton/mile consumption..
backwardation gir kortere seilingsdistanser og høyere fart, som igjen gir lavere fleet ton/mile consumption.
hvorfor? fordi når markedet er backwards taper man penger hver dag oljen er ombord på kjøl. man vil derfor ha oljen så fort ut til end user som mulig.

mvh

Ja, tar inngang nå, 65 minus dividende gir en inngang ca 60, det er jo rabatt til nav.
Tar nok tide å fortære contangoen, men raten kan ikke gå lavere.