Tank høsten 2020

Empire
FRO 29.07.2020 kl 11:31 85410

Startet en ny tråd da innlegget kanskje ikke passet helt under Contango

Det er nå stille på tank trådene og det har vært gode muligheter til å plukke aksjer under 70. Nå tror jeg det kan bli vanskelig å få det til den prisen fremover.

Ratene for august ruller inn og de viser en oppgang mot slutten av august og det kan virke som sommeren nærmer seg slutten.

Noe av grunnen er at dødsdommen for US shale viste seg å være feil. Bunnen i US produksjon ble på 9.75M bøtter i juni og de siste tallene viser 11M bøtter pr. dag. Med økende pris for bøtta(som en del analytikere både tror og håper på) vil bare medføre at US vil kunne øke videre. Det er et stykke opp til 13M bøtter pr. dag, som var topp, men det positive er at de svakeste spillerne i det amerikanske shale eventyret er ute av dansen. Da sitter man potensielt igjen med en gruppe produsenter som har lavere break even kost. Økende amerikansk produksjon vil også kunne dempe prisoppgang for det sorte gull og jeg tror en del av analytiker standen igjen bommer med tanke på "shale lokket" på oljeprisen.

Høyere produksjon med lavere kostnad bør være Bull for tank og jeg mener at høsten skal bli fin for aksjonærer i de ulike tankselskaper.

Lykke til
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:53 Du må logge inn for å svare
Grunnpilar
29.07.2020 kl 11:43 39436

Har du en link/side som viser ratene som rulles inn for August ?
Sitter å venter på Fearnleys ukentlige rapport,den burde jo være rett rundt hjørne.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Empire
29.07.2020 kl 11:53 39360

Crweber.com har f.eks daglige oppdateringer (snitt for de største signal rutene innenfor de ulike segmentene).

Vlcc appen er en annet gratis sted å finne ulike slutninger på daglig basis. Veldig fin liten gratis app

Så er det en del meglere (DnB f.eks) som sender ut daglige oppdateringer, men de har gjerne bare gratis oppdatering på noen få store signal ruter som f.eks AG - East.

Informasjon om slutninger kan være vanskelig å finne gratis av åpenbare grunner, men betaler man noen kroner kan man få tak i det meste via ymse meglere. Ellers så er det å sette sammen biter av gratis informasjon fra f.eks de tre jeg nevner og uke rapporten som du nevner.

Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
ks1977
29.07.2020 kl 12:07 39261

Tankers International twitrer om alle VLCC-slutninger de blir kjent med (unntatt sine egne). Trenger ikke å ha en bruker for å følge de; https://twitter.com/TankersInt
De har også en app man kan laste ned

Ellers så twitrer Hannisdahl daglig om endring i ratene, men disse avviker en del fra andre rapporter (fordi det benyttes ulike ruter).
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Grunnpilar
29.07.2020 kl 12:24 39170

Takker og bukker
Skal skaffe meg den appen nå.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Grunnpilar
29.07.2020 kl 12:31 39127

Takker for infoen, kommer godt med.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Empire
29.07.2020 kl 12:35 39093

Bare hyggelig.

Det er da appen som ks1977 også nevner. Har sitt utspring fra TI pool. Som ks1977 også sier, så er det flere forumbrukere som følger mr. Cleaves på Twitter og han er veldig glad i å bruke AG - Japan som referanse punkt.

Vær uansett obs på ulike snitt rater på like ruter fra ulike kilder, da informasjon gjerne er innhentet fra ulike aktører, så det er ikke en fasit, men en tendens man gjerne kan fange opp. Ulike Tier skip får også ulike rater, mens i snittene kommer dette gjerne heller ikke frem.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
bellx
29.07.2020 kl 16:03 38774

Har ikke fro men liker at shorterne "blør"Er ikke spettet short der også?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
29.07.2020 kl 16:47 38674

Det er han, med ca. 1 mill aksjer / ca 71 kr og for øyeblikket er han ca 3 mill i minus på veddemålet. Kanskje det var shortere Raga Rockers tenkte på når de skrev "Noen å hate" - er det ikke deilig å ha noen å hate... å slå noen flate... :)

Dog, vi trenger dem vel for likviditeten i aksjene, og ingenting smaker bedre enn en shortskvis :)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
ziik
29.07.2020 kl 17:29 38551

Godt se litt stigning igjen men spørs hvor mye hold det er i dette da volumet er skremmende lavt både her og over fjorden. Ligger forøvrig i en stigende trendkanal med 65 kr I bunn og 103 kr topp.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Oj55
29.07.2020 kl 18:41 38386

Fro rundt 80 ved close kommende fredag. Juli straks passert, og da skal denne opp. Tror jeg. Bull!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Shagwong
29.07.2020 kl 22:24 38099

Fro når New York stengte $ 8.31
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Tøff
29.07.2020 kl 22:56 37971

Mange tankaksjer har beveget seg pent opp i New York i kveld. Jeg registrerer klare kjøpesignaler i aksjer som EURN,TNK,INSW,DHT og selvfølgelig FRO. USA er litt foran Oslo her. Jeg går ut fra at vi får en pen utvikling i Oslo nå. Fro antagelig over 75 i morgen.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Andreas
31.07.2020 kl 11:33 37402

«Predicting tanker rates has always been part science, part art, part wild guess. This year calls for even more artistry and wild guessing than usual.

Rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs, tankers that carry 2 million barrels of crude oil) currently average $32,800 per day, up 130% year-on-year, according to Clarksons Platou Securities data. VLCC rates are averaging more than 3.5 times higher year-to-date than during the same period last year.

But where do they go next?»

Meget lesverdig artikkel fra 20. juli;
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/tanker-rate-puzzle-gets-even-harder-to-solve
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mithrox
31.07.2020 kl 12:51 37231

Jeg er nysgjerrig, hva er grunnlaget for at du tror denne skal opp når August starter? Tank-markedet er vel spådd veldig lav Q3/Q4, så det er ikke sannsynlig at inntjening blir veldig bra. Jeg vet kurs ofte gjenspeiler fremtiden i mye større grad enn nåtiden, man hva gjør at du har denne holdningen? Bare personlig tro, eller er det noe bak det?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
nucleus
31.07.2020 kl 13:14 37164

Utbytte Q2.. trekker jo opp kursen. Q3 og Q4 dårlig fremover ? Ikke iforhold til historikk.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mithrox
31.07.2020 kl 13:35 37167

Utbytte Q2 er jo allerede opptjent, det er et utbytte for noe som allerede har skjedd. Raten er jo langt ned allerede, og om man skal tro f.eks Cleaves rapporten så er det lenge før tank vil ta seg opp merkbart igjen. Nå er jeg vel ikke udelt enig med Hannisdahl, jeg sitter jo tross alt i Frontline uten noen planer om å selge, men jeg tror kanskje heller ikke vi vil se noen stor oppgang med det første, om vi da ikke ender i en ny oljekrig med contango mm.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
ks1977
31.07.2020 kl 13:46 37127

Skal la Oj55 svare for seg, men en kommentar knyttet til at Q3/Q4 er spådd veldig lave; Cleaves spådde dommedag med VLCC-rater godt under 10k for Q3, men har nå oppjustert Q3-ratene for VLCC til 26,8k hvilket er meget sterkt for Q3. For Q4 så spår de drøye 30k (for VLCC) etter hva jeg kan se (graf side 12 i rapporten av 22.07.2020), noe som er svakt for årstiden, men over break-even. Andre analytikere er vel mer positive, men jeg har ikke tatt en kikk på de i det siste.

Ellers så har Cleaves korrigert sine estimat for 2022 (betraktelig opp) og står igjen med Q2&Q3 2021 som de fæle kvartalene (Q2&Q3 er jo sesongmessig svake uansett, men estimatet er vel lavere enn vanlig sesongsvakhet) før det tar av i Q4/2021.

Jeg har ingen formening om når aksjekursen skal opp (og ei heller om den skal betydelig ned først), men Mr Market skal vel være 12-18mnd fremoverseende for tank har jeg hørt (om det stemmer er noe annet) så dersom Cleaves har rett i at bunnen er om ca 12 måneder (Q2/Q3 2021) og at Q4/2021 danner grunnlaget for flere års med svært gode rater så burde vel aksjekursene begynne å bevege på seg (skjønt jeg vet ikke om Mr Market ser 12-18mnd frem i tid, så det kan hende at kursene forblir lave eller lavere i flere måneder for alt jeg vet)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Mithrox
31.07.2020 kl 14:05 37065

Takk for godt innspill, det var sånne svar jeg var ute etter egentlig. Forumene er fulle av "jeg tror" og "jeg håper", da er det kjekt å se noen som virkelig har tenkt gjennom og har gode tilbakemeldinger. Som tidligere nevnt, jeg er inntil videre lang i Frontline og ser gjerne en fin oppgang fremover, samtidig som jeg gleder meg til et par utbytte også for Q2 nå i september. Hannisdahl er en dommedagsprofet slik han fremstår, men det er mange som ser til Cleaves for guiding så det er ofte at det kan virke litt styrende sånn jeg ser det.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
ks1977
31.07.2020 kl 14:47 36980

Bare hyggelig :) Jeg viser ofte til Hannisdahl. Ikke fordi at jeg nødvendigvis tror at han treffer bedre enn de andre, men fordi at hans tidligere analyser har vært en slags worst case og likevel bullish (på mellomlang sikt).

Jeg hadde ikke videre sansen for rapporten hans når han først nedgraderte sektoren siden det var en del forutsetninger som for meg virket gjensidig utelukkende (selv om de hver for seg kanskje var ok), så som vedvarende ekstremt lave rater (2021 og 2022) samtidig som relativt lav skraping (mindre enn 2018).

Nå har han oppjustert estimatene sine betraktelig, og da spesielt 2022 som han nå mener vil bli et veldig godt år (for FRO sin del så spår han net profit på 454MUSD i år og 346MUSD i 2022, må bare gjennom -7MUSD i 2021 først) så nå virker de mye mer troverdige (for alt jeg vet så kanskje han overvurderer 2022 nå).

Personlig så har jeg valgt andre selskap enn FRO, men FRO er et kanonselskap som bør være veldig trygt og gi god avkastning med riktig horisont.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Flipper
31.07.2020 kl 20:04 36692

Greit med ny tråd, i ny og ned, så la oss kun bruke denne for ALT på tank, som er generelt, ikke hva som info om spesielle selskaper

OPEC+ readies to pump more crude into a market wary of a resurgence in the pandemic

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/073020-opec-readies-to-pump-more-crude-into-a-market-wary-of-a-resurgence-in-the-pandemic
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Grunnpilar
31.07.2020 kl 20:31 36615

Ja, pumpes det mer olje inn i markedet, så blir det mer å gjøre for shippingindustrien, uansett om lagrene på land fylles opp eller ikke. Men hvis ikke etterspørselen øker ihht til økning i produksjonen, vil også lagrene på land fylles opp. Men spørs om det blir nok til at de må gå i båtan igjen for å lagre. Men som i all shipping, så er det jo Tanken som teller :)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
NOELLE
02.08.2020 kl 21:52 35868

Stortank fortsatt under press. VLCC vaker rundt eller rett under break/even. Det er lavsesong for tank så dette er ikke unormalt. Mer interessant er lagertrekk på 10.5 mb i US forrige uke (vs 1.8 avg.). Lagerne har vært proppfulle lenge, men nå bygges det ned.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Flipper
03.08.2020 kl 09:38 35419

Russian oil output rises to 9.37 million bpd in July, missing OPEC+ target:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-russia/russian-oil-output-rises-to-9-37-million-bpd-in-july-missing-opec-target-interfax-idUSKBN24Y071?il=0

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian oil and gas condensate production increased to 9.37 million

barrels per day (bpd) in July, Interfax news agency reported on Sunday, citing energy ministry data, indicating it missed its output target under a global deal.


Artikkel på linken
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Underberg
03.08.2020 kl 13:22 35162

TANK: SENTIMENTET I VLCC-MARKEDET FORBLIR DEMPET
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Råoljetankrederiene utvikler seg blandet på Oslo Børs mandag. Sentimentet i VLCC-markedet forblir dempet.

VLCC-ratene (Persiabukta-Kina) ble sist vurdert til 19.136 dollar pr dag, en nedgang på 1,8 prosent på dagsbasis. Ratene har imidlertid notert en oppgang på 5,0 prosent over den siste uken, ifølge en liste fra Arctic Securities mandag.

Til sammenligning er kontant breakeven for VLCCer på 22-24.000 dollar pr dag. Frontline på sin side trenger VLCC-rater på 22.000 dollar pr dag for resten av 2020 for å gå breakeven, ifølge rederiets førstekvartalsrapport.

De gjennomsnittlige suezmax- og aframax-ratene ble på samme tid vurdert til henholdsvis 9.480 og 6.021 dollar pr dag, ifølge listen.

Arctic Securities viser til det amerikanske energidepartementets statistikkfløy, EIA, sin rapport fredag kveld som viste at råoljeproduksjonen i USA var på 10,0 millioner fat pr dag i mai.

Samtidig viser rapporten at råoljeeksporten i USA i mai var på 2,8 millioner fat pr dag (fpd) mai, ned 15 prosent på månedsbasis, men meglerhuset poengterer at eksporten har steget i juni og juli til henholdsvis 3,1 og 3,2 millioner fpd, opp henholdsvis 11 og 15 prosent fra mai-nivåene.

"Økende eksport fra USA bør gagne tank på bakgrunn av lengre handelsdistanser til Asia", skriver meglerhuset i rapporten mandag.

Arctic-analytikerne skriver at sentimentet i VLCC-markedet forblir dempet med rater rundt 20.000 dollar pr dag på grunn av lav slutningsaktivitet, men at ratene har blitt noe støttet av utsettelser i Kina som begrenser overhenget av tonnasje.

"Vi går inn i en sterk sesong for tank-rater, og vi forventer å se en lignende sesongmessig trend i tank-ratene samtidig som at Opec+ øker produksjonen og etterspørselen plukker seg opp", heter det i rapporten.

Clarksons Platou Securities peker videre på at flytende lagring har hjulpet å holde VLCC-ratene på et høyere nivå sammenlignet med andre tank-segmenter.

Clarkson Research Services estimerer at 93 VLCCer blir brukt som flytende lagring, ned fra 101 fra forrige uke og fra et gjennomsnitt på rundt 100 VLCC over de siste fire ukene.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Empire
03.08.2020 kl 14:31 35024

Sikkert noen som har lagt ut denne før, men Rystad sine tanker om en "second wave" virker som et fornuftig case. En "normal" innhenting vil bety ca. 1M bøtter i økt etterspørsel pr. måned ut 2020 for det soret gull, men total etterspørsel vil fortsatt ende under 2019 nivå. Det i seg selv trenger ikke å være negativt for tank, da det i større grad vil være produksjon (Opec+ og US shale) som vil bestemme etterspørsel etter baljer.

https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/news/press-releases/a-mild-second-wave-of-covid-19-is-now-rystad-energys-base-case-scenario-for-oil-demand/
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Grunnpilar
03.08.2020 kl 16:13 34879

Nå de siste dagene har det kommet en del PMI tall for diverse land, f.eks USA,Kina og Tyskland, der peker det mot økt aktivitet dvs PMI over 50, t.o.m PMI over forventet ref. tradingeconomics,com. Da ser det ut som om etterspørselen for Olje vil øke utover høsten,da økt aktivitet generellt i industrien, såfremt landene ikke begynner å stenge ned igjen.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Flipper
03.08.2020 kl 21:06 34567

SKREMMENDE, '' men '' ingen røyk uten ild.

Denne personen og hans netside får mye '' pepper '', men, har vist gang på gang, at hva
han får av informsjaon er '' veldig ofte '' riktig. Sistnevnte, ofte riktig, betyr jo også at motparten
får anledning til å '' forandre litt her og der '' siden de allerede har sett kortene til motstander,

Ikke sette denne karen ( eller gjøken ) som Wall Str. hater ( men kan ikke ta livet av ham, det styrker
jo hans posisjon, og han har helt sikkert en Kollosal Stab, via nettet, ikke sittende på et kontor.

Når man ser hva Trump sier om data og valgfusk, ja selv brev stemming, som Norge har hatt i mange
år; og Biden; så kan vel alle være enige om hva jeg har sagt før MANGE GANGER.

DC er et råttent sted, og Kongressen med sitt Senat og House of Representatives, har ALLE noe på ALLE
andre, så her er det bare å spille med så godt man kan, POLITISK.

Gidder ikke skrive mer om dette. Enhver i sær får lese nyheter og vurdere SELV

Det er tross alt DEMOKRATI i Norge ENNU....

Som vanlig

Glemte å lime inn Link

Mysterious Drone Swarm Breached Secure Airspace Over Largest Nuclear Power Plant In US

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/mysterious-drone-swarm-breached-secure-airspace-over-largest-nuclear-power-plant-us
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Flipper
03.08.2020 kl 21:25 34520

Nettopp tilbake etter en FANTASTISK tur med Mjøsas Hvite Svane.

Tok toget til Lillehammer, og et par venner gikk på toget på Hamar, hvor
de bor.

SKIBLADNER
I går markerte vi 164 årsdagen, verdens eldste hjuldamper i drift!

Og selvfølgelig er skipet Norsk.

Bestill laksen. Den kommer rett fra produsent, hver dag, far Møre kysten, og
har NY POTETER som Jeg har forsøkt å finne i butikker i Oslo.

UMULIG

Må nok til Hedmarken eller Oppland for å få kjøpt '' gode gamle, Ny poteter ''.

Sa til vår venner fra Hamar, når dere kommer ned til oss i Oslo, glem flaker eller
blomster, ta med 25 Kg sekk med Norske Ny-poteter ......
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Flipper
04.08.2020 kl 09:19 33982

Finansavisen - ( håper vi får mer kontango igjen. Lagrene PÅ LAND er sikkert mye fullere enn sist, og derav større behov for lager SKIP enn sist )

Oljeprisen er nå under press, etter at Opec og deres partenere har økt produksjonen på et tidspunkt hvor usikkerheten
rundt global etterspørsel fortsatt er høy.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Flipper
04.08.2020 kl 19:18 33606

EURN continues its buyback, reaches 6.09% yesterday, has paid as high as $9.94 on the NYSE

"The Supervisory Board and Management Board firmly believe this affirmative action creates long term value for all stakeholders given the disconnect between equity and net asset values at present and reflects the strength of Euronav’s balance sheet and the confidence of Board and Management in the long term value in the Company’s shares."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
Flipper
04.08.2020 kl 20:48 33397

Kun overskrift ( har brukt opp kvoten min for free )

Noen andre kan kanskje benytte linken ?

London Traders Hit $500 Million Jackpot When Oil Went Negative

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-04/oil-s-plunge-below-zero-was-500-million-jackpot-for-a-few-london-traders?srnd=premium
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
albert01
04.08.2020 kl 21:55 33194

Så du barndomshjemmet til eieren av Frontline?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
aquamann
04.08.2020 kl 23:41 32968

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London Traders Hit $500 Million Jackpot When Oil Went Negative
Regulators look into a small group of investors who got rich on the unprecedented drop.
By , , and
4. august 2020, 06:01 CEST
Updated on 4. august 2020, 20:23 CEST
Oil storage in Cushing, Okla.
Oil storage in Cushing, Okla. PHOTOGRAPHER: JOHANNES EIELE/AFP/ GETTY IMAGES
On April 20 the price of a barrel of oil for delivery the following month plummeted $40 in an hour, settling at –$37. It was the first time crude had ever crossed into negative territory. Regulators, oil executives, and investors have struggled to understand how a commodity at the heart of almost every aspect of global trade had fallen so far that sellers had to pay counterparties to take it off their hands.

But for a small group of veteran traders at a tiny London firm called Vega Capital London Ltd., the mystery mattered less than the results: They pocketed as much as $500 million that day, according to people familiar with the matter, who spoke to Bloomberg Businessweek on condition of anonymity.

Vega’s jackpot, which hasn’t been previously reported, involved about a dozen traders aggressively selling oil in unison before the May West Texas Intermediate contract settled at 2:30 p.m. in New York, the people say. It’s a tactic Vega’s traders used regularly, according to another person familiar with the firm’s strategy, but that day its trading coincided with a period of unprecedented volatility, when demand for fuel was wiped out by the coronavirus pandemic, and storage space in Cushing, Okla., where buyers take physical delivery of WTI crude, had all but disappeared.

Crude Oil
Price per barrel of West Texas Intermediate


Data: Compiled by Bloomberg

Now regulators at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority, and CME Group Inc., owner of the Nymex exchange where the trading took place, are examining whether Vega’s actions may have breached rules on trading around settlement periods and contributed to oil’s precipitous fall, according to people with knowledge of the probes.

Within 24 hours of the crash, the May WTI contract had bounced back to about $10 a barrel. And oil futures prices have continued to climb, with the active contract trading as high as $42.08 a barrel on August 4. But the plunge, however brief, created some big losers. They include thousands of Chinese and American retail investors who, lured by oil’s recent slump, had piled into instruments whose value was pegged to the contract’s April 20 settlement price.

Whether Vega’s windfall was a result of savvy trading, blind luck, or something else, the idea that a relative minnow could have such a profound impact calls into question CME Chief Executive Officer Terry Duffy’s April 22 declaration that the futures market had “worked to perfection.”

“The idea that the anomalies that day were a function solely of supply and demand is fanciful at best,” says Joe Cisewski, special counsel to Better Markets, a lobbying group that advocates for tougher regulation. “Oil producers, brokers, and other market participants have been sent into serious financial distress. Regulators need to objectively and thoroughly investigate what happened.”

Spokespeople for the CFTC, FCA, and CME declined to comment. The CFTC has said it’s looking to release a report on the crash later this year. Vega didn’t return emails seeking comment.

Prop-trading firms like Vega give independent traders access to the world’s exchanges, back-office services, and extra capital to trade with in exchange for a desk fee, a commission on every trade, and sometimes a share of any profits. In a trillion-dollar energy ecosystem dominated by the likes of BP, Glencore, and Royal Dutch Shell, prop firms are bit players.

Vega was started in 2016 by Adrian Spires and Tommy Gaunt, friends who’d worked together on the management team at another London prop firm, Tower Trading Group, before branching out on their own. In 2017 about 20 of Tower’s energy traders quit to join Vega, sparking a legal dispute that was settled out of court. Gaunt quit as a director last year, and Spires, 44, now owns all of the business. He left school at 18 to take a job in the trading pits of the London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange. Some of Vega’s traders spent time at the International Petroleum Exchange, buying and selling barrels of oil using hand signals, before commodities trading migrated from open outcry onto screens.

The firm has an office a short walk from Liverpool Street station, above one of London’s All Bar One pubs, which it shares with a group of mostly recent college graduates trading cryptocurrencies for another company also owned by Spires. But most of Vega’s traders work from home, according to people familiar with the firm, even more so since the U.K.’s lockdown came into force.

While more than two dozen individuals trade through Vega’s omnibus account, finding information about them is difficult. Only a few list Vega as their employer on LinkedIn. The company’s website has remained under construction since Vega was founded.

One oil investor describes the firm as something of a throwback to the days of the pits, when rowdy so-called locals made or lost fortunes before heading to the pub to celebrate their winnings or drown their sorrows. Many of Vega’s traders know each other socially, playing golf and taking ski trips. They also trade together during key periods to maximize their impact on the market, the people familiar with the firm say.

To understand how Vega wound up making so much money that day, it’s helpful to consider some of the idiosyncrasies of the oil market. Among the most popular ways to trade oil is Nymex’s WTI futures contract, which allows buyers and sellers to agree on a price for 1,000 barrels of light sweet crude for delivery at a future date. New contracts are released every month, and they settle at 2:30 p.m. on or near the 20th of the month.

Nymex also offers a corollary instrument called Trading at Settlement, or TAS, in which buyers and sellers agree to transact at whatever the settlement price turns out to be. The settlement price is based on a volume-weighted average of trades occurring in the two minutes before 2:30 p.m. While it might seem curious that anyone would agree to buy something without knowing the price, the TAS market is popular among exchange-traded funds and other funds whose mandate is to track the price of oil rather than to get the best deal. It was also central to Vega’s strategy.

One of the quirks of the oil futures market is that to take a long-term position, investors must keep buying new monthly contracts, then sell them before they expire and buy future months’ contracts, a process known as rolling. A significant proportion of the market’s participants are speculators with no interest in taking possession of any oil, so before each contract expires they have to close out any residual positions, creating a flurry of buying and selling.

In the lead-up to the April 20 settlement, rumors were circulating that there would be significant downward pressure on the May contract. The recent slump in prices had attracted bargain-hunting retail investors into funds that track oil, including the Bank of China Ltd.’s Treasure, a vehicle linked to the price of oil. To manage its position after the influx, Bank of China and the banks it uses to help execute trades needed to sell large numbers of the May contracts and buy June ones. Two weeks before the settlement, CME, which monitors market activity, issued a rare public warning that negative prices were a possibility.

On April 20, as Bank of China and others were selling May contracts, Vega’s traders were hoovering them up in the TAS market, according to people familiar with the matter, agreeing to buy oil at whatever the settlement price turned out to be. Then, as the settlement time approached, they aggressively sold outright WTI contracts and other related instruments, contributing to the downward pressure on the price. Vega stood to profit if it managed to buy oil through the TAS market more cheaply than the oil it sold through the day.

Vega’s selling collided with an exodus of buyers, and the May contract tumbled from about $10 at noon to zero at 2 p.m., then all the way down to settle at –$37. Oil’s dive into negative territory meant that Vega ended up being paid for many of the contracts it sold as the market was falling—and for all those it bought at the –$37 settlement price via TAS, locking in a huge profit.

Buying TAS and selling outrights before and during the settlement is a well-known strategy that dates back to the pits, according to market participants, but it carries considerable risk. Selling futures can quickly turn into losses if a bigger player shows up and starts buying. “It’s a big poker game,” says Greg Newman, founder of energy-trading firm Onyx Capital Group.

There are also rules that forbid trading with the goal of deliberately affecting the settlement. In 2008, Dutch firm Optiver was sanctioned by the CFTC for abusing the TAS mechanism and boasting about its exploits in emails. And in 2011 the agency introduced a rule prohibiting a practice known as “banging the close,” which it defines as trading heavily during the settlement period in one market to influence a larger position elsewhere.

But proving manipulation requires the government to demonstrate intent, which is difficult without incriminating communications such as text messages. And winning cases has been difficult, even with the new rules. “They’re not in any way slam-dunks,” says Aitan Goelman, a former head of the CFTC’s enforcement division and now a partner at Zuckerman Spaeder.

It seems unlikely that Vega’s traders could have predicted just how far oil would fall
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 03:20 Du må logge inn for å svare
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05.08.2020 kl 12:34 32547

Go Rozen: On the Verge of an Energy Crisis

Q2 oil market recap and forecast is here, plus much else. There's a nice plug for the NG bulls.

The claim is oil demand never dropped as much as EIA and IEA expected; emerging markets repeated their surprising performance from back when they were coming out of the 2008 crisis. This they expect to continue. Demand better than expected, supply way worse.

Many here will enjoy the recap of SLB's market history at the end of the piece - a thought-provoking trip down memory lane.

See link here

https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/4043042/Commentaries/2020.Q2%20Commentary/2020.02%20Goehring%20&%20Rozencwajg%20Market%20Commentary.pdf
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05.08.2020 kl 15:04 32343

Shipping’s Share of Global Carbon Emissions Increases

By Jonathan Saul LONDON,

(Reuters) – Carbon emissions from shipping rose in the six-year period to 2018 and accounted for 2.89% of the world’s CO2, a study released on Tuesday showed, amid growing pressure on the industry to bring levels down.
About 90% of world trade is transported by sea and UN shipping agency – the IMO – aims to reduce the industry’s overall greenhouse gas emissions by 50% from 2008 levels by 2050.

The report – the fourth in a series commissioned by the IMO – said shipping’s share of global CO2 emissions increased to 2.89% in 2018 from 2.76% in 2012, when the last study period ended.
CO2 emissions grew to 1,056 million tonnes in 2018 versus 962 million tonnes in 2012, the study showed.

The report said emissions in 2020 and 2021 would be significantly lower due to the impact of COVID-19 and that emissions over the next decades may be a few percent lower than projected depending on the recovery trajectory.

Tristan Smith, with advisory group UMAS which includes University College London, said the report showed that reductions in carbon intensity had already been achieved.

“The report is positive towards the likelihood of achieving decarbonisation, as long as IMO and national governments now take strong policy action to help incentivise this.”

The non-profit International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) said the growth of shipping was outpacing efficiency improvements and by 2050 emissions from the industry were projected to be up to 130% higher than 2008 levels.

“It’s notable that improvements in fuel efficiency have slowed since 2015, with annual improvements of only 1% to 2%,” ICCT’s marine program director Dan Rutherford said.

“Policies are needed to accelerate innovative fuel-efficiency technologies like wind-assist and hull air lubrication, along with new, low-emission and zero-emission fuels.”

The IMO said its Marine Environment Protection Committee would consider the study when it next meets. (Editing by Jane Merriman)

(c) Copyright Thom
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Grunnpilar
10.08.2020 kl 21:37 31210

Tanker congestion remains severe in China with over 80 ships waiting

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/tanker-congestion-remains-severe-in-china-with-over-80-ships-waiting/2-1-855414

Når Vlcc står og venter på å få komme til Kai, og de har"fixd price" får de da betalt i ventetiden ?
Og gjelder dette for de som kjører Spot ? Pga båtenen som ligger som gikk ut ifra Kai med Spot rundt 80-60K $ dagen, får de da raten de gikk ut ifra Kai med ? og får de også betalt sammePris når de ligger å venter ?
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10.08.2020 kl 22:23 31089

DHT

https://ml-eu.globenewswire.com/Resource/Download/b54a4a9a-949a-4282-8d33-595512900ed7

NASDAQ COMPANY DISCLOSURES 2020-08-10 13:17:19 -07:00

DHT Holdings, Inc. Second Quarter 2020 Results

HAMILTON, BERMUDA, August 10, 2020 – DHT Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:DHT) (“DHT” or the “Company”) today announced its results for the quarter ended June 30, 2020.

The full report is available here and in the below attachment.

About DHT Holdings, Inc.

DHT is an independent crude oil tanker company. Our fleet trades internationally and consists of crude oil tankers in the VLCC segment. We operate through our integrated management companies in Monaco, Singapore and Oslo, Norway. You shall recognize us by our business approach with an experienced organization with focus on first rate operations and customer service, quality ships built at quality shipyards, prudent capital structure with robust cash break even levels to accommodate staying power through the business cycles, a combination of market exposure and fixed income contracts for our fleet and a transparent corporate structure maintaining a high level of integrity and good governance. For further information: www.dhtankers.com.

Forward looking statements

This press release contains certain forward-looking statements and information relating to the Company that are based on beliefs of the Company’s management as well as assumptions, expectations, projections, intentions and beliefs about future events, in particular regarding dividends (including our dividend plans, timing and the amount and growth of any dividends), daily charter rates, vessel utilization, the future number of newbuilding deliveries, oil prices and seasonal fluctuations in vessel supply and demand. When used in this document, words such as “believe,” “intend,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “project,” “forecast,” “plan,” “potential,” “will,” “may,” “should” and “expect” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. These statements reflect the Company’s current views with respect to future events and are based on assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties. Given these uncertainties, you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent the Company’s estimates and assumptions only as of the date of this press release and are not intended to give any assurance as to future results. For a detailed discussion of the risk factors that might cause future results to differ, please refer to the Company’s Annual Report on Form 20-F, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 25, 2020.
The Company undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements contained in this press release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law. In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events discussed in this press release might not occur, and the Company’s actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements.

CONTACT:
Laila C. Halvorsen, CFO
Phone: +1 441 295 1422 and +47 984 39 935
E-mail: lch@dhtankers.com

Wilhelm Flinder, Manager - Investor Relations & Business Analysis
Phone: +1 441 295 1422 and +47 936 11 350
Email: wf@dhtankers.com

Attachment

DHT Q2 2020 financial report
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10.08.2020 kl 22:35 30810

Spot, betyr bare at rederiet tar heller sjansen på å få bedre betalt, enn på Time Charter ( periode til fast dag rate )

En såkalt rundreise er basert på den nå berømmelige World Scale, men den går vi utenom.

Når et tankskip sluttes på en såkalt, Voyage Charter ( bergnet som en rundreise, fra A til B, og tilbake til A;
er det en klausul om tillatte liggedager, Max, derefter må befrakter betale en såkalt Demurrage rate, som, som
oftest er litt lavere enn hva et T/C ville gitt.

Den biten som du bekymrer deg om, er i Regnestykket, og ventetid utover, hva som er avtalt på et Voyage
charter, blir for befrakters regning.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 06:56 Du må logge inn for å svare
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10.08.2020 kl 22:42 30763

Due to, same purchasers, China, both, Dry and Wheat cargo, relevant to both markets, LACK OF DEEP WATER BERTHS in China
Corn prices in China are soaring, which could be good news for American farmers. As China’s formerly bloated stockpiles shrink, prices have climbed to a five-year high. Since January, front-month corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen 2
July 30.. 2020 - Already started then

China’s Corn-Market Pop Could Lift American Farmers

https://ussanews.com/…/chinas-corn-market-pop-could-lift-a…/

China has already stepped up purchases of American farm goods, and forecasts record corn imports overall

By Lucy Craymer

Corn prices in China are soaring, which could be good news for American farmers.

As China’s formerly bloated stockpiles shrink, prices have climbed to a five-year high. Since January, front-month corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange have risen 27% to about 2,306 yuan ($329) a metric ton, a level last seen in the summer of 2015.Corn PopsCorn prices in China have climbed to a five-year high, one reason the country is buyingmore grain from abroad.

Front-month futuresSource: FutureSourceNote: 1,000 yuan=$142.81.yuan a metric tonFeb. 2020July1,6001,8002,0002,2002,400
Back in 2016, the Chinese government ended a long-running price-guarantee program for corn farmers that had led to the accumulation of massive amounts of the grain. Withdrawing the supports caused Chinese corn prices to plunge. Low prices and the lingering oversupply led farmers to cut back production.

China uses corn primarily for animal feed, but low domestic prices over the past four years caused it to find other uses as well, such as for cooking starch. Still, it has taken years to significantly reduce stockpiles and allow prices to recover. But with prices now soaring, industry analysts say they expect China to step up imports of corn and other grains, such as sorghum and barley, to help meet demand.

That would benefit U.S. grain farmers, suffering from falling prices this year. The coronavirus pandemic has damped sales, and the market is further depressed by expectations of a larger corn crop later this year, thanks to farmers’ increasing the amount they planted. The U.S. harvest typically begins in September.

China has already stepped up purchases of American farm goods this year, looking to hit purchasing targets laid out in the first phase of the U.S.-China trade deal signed in January.Grainy PictureChina’s gross purchases of U.S. corn havejumped this year.Source: U.S. Department of AgricultureNote: 2020 figure is through July 16.million metric tons2015’16’17’18’19’200.00.51.01.52.02.5

“China is going to have to buy more grains, and the trade deal with the U.S. shoehorns that demand toward the U.S.,” said Tobin Gorey, agri-strategy director at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. That is providing some support to U.S. prices, he added, though not enough to overcome the effect of the looming large new crop.

China bought 2.1 million metric tons of corn through July 16, up from 315 thousand metric tons in the same period last year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The world’s most populous nation and No. 2 economy is also the second-largest producer and consumer of corn after the U.S.

On July 10, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said it expected to import six million metric tons of corn in the 12 months ending this September. That was 50% higher than its earlier forecasts and would represent the highest total ever.

Chinese authorities said the jump partly reflects efforts to fulfill trade-deal commitments. But analysts say imports will also help relieve corn shortages emerging in parts of the country and hold down prices for users such as ethanol producers, struggling to make a profit. And demand for feed is rising as farms expand hog herds that were decimated by last year’s epidemic of African swine fever.Creamed CornU.S. corn prices have been weak this year, hitby a pandemic-driven drop in demand andexpectations of a big harvest this fall.Front-month futuresSource: FutureSource.a bushelFeb. 2020July2.803.003.203.403.603.80$4.00

China’s own corn production is expected to rise slightly but isn’t enough to meet the country’s needs. Planting was hampered partly by a rise in costs—notably labor, pesticides and fertilizers—as Covid-19 broke out earlier in the year.

Another reason China is buying more corn from abroad, said Michael Underhill, chief investment officer at Wisconsin-based asset manager Capital Innovations, whose investments include agricultural businesses: It is a bargain. Import corn prices are currently around 600 yuan ($86) a metric ton lower than domestic corn prices in China.

—Zhou Wei contributed to this article.

Write to Lucy Craymer at

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Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 06:56 Du må logge inn for å svare