China imported a record 555,000 metric tons of refined copper in

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"China is structurally short of copper, they need to import it," said Robin Bhar, an independent metals consultant. "So a weaker dollar, and a stronger renminbi, plays right into their hands."

Robust Chinese demand for raw materials has fueled a rally in industrial commodities in recent months. Purchases of copper, oil and iron ore have rebounded after sliding when much of the Chinese economy was shut down earlier this year to control the coronavirus pandemic.

Chinese growth is a key determinant of copper prices because the world's second-largest economy accounts for around half of global consumption of the metal. The Caixin China purchasing managers index rose to 53.1 in August from 52.8 in July. It marked the fourth straight month in which the gauge topped 50, the mark separating contraction and expansion.

China imported a record 555,000 metric tons of refined copper in July, according to Citigroup. Analysts at the U.S. bank expect trade data to show imports slipped in August, in part because rising prices for refined metal have prompted an increase in purchases of scrap. Still, they forecast that Chinese demand will push the international copper market into a deficit in 2021, meaning consumption would exceed production.

The revival in Chinese demand has already depleted metal supplies. The amount of copper stored in warehouses approved by the London Metal Exchange fell to 89,350 metric tons last week, the smallest volume since late 2005, according to FactSet. Not all copper is housed in exchange sheds, but they represent a snapshot of the amount of the metal available globally.

Nonetheless, copper prices have outstripped levels justified by the balance between supply and demand, said Tom Mulqueen, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.
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