PAS er ute med en oppdatering på PROTCT i dag hvor de øker kursmålet til 65 (60) I tillegg tar de aksjen inn i sin oktober portefølje. De skriver blant annet følgende:

Strong equity returns in Q3’20

Strong financial markets should be very supportive for Protector
Forsikring (PROTCT) in Q3’20 and we increase our EPS for the
quarter with NOK 2.7. We increase our target price to NOK 65 (60)
and reiterate our Buy recommendation.

Strong financial returns to support quarterly earnings
We estimate yet another strong quarter for PROTCT’s financial portfolio,
with 15% equity returns and also strong returns on its bond portfolio
(1.5%), boosted by the increased allocation to high yields in Q2. Covid-19
should continue to impact the underwriting positively, and we make a
slightly positive estimate revision here as well. In sum, we now look for a
quarterly EPS of NOK 4.26 (1.57). For the full-year, this lifts our EPS
estimate to NOK 7.4 (4.4). We make limited estimate revisions for 2021-
22e.

Significant upside at current pricing
PROTCT is more reliant on financial performance than many of its peers,
making its earnings potentially more volatile. While this seems to have
been a positive in Q3’20, it could potentially be a contributor to the
share’s underperformance year-to-date. The share is down 14%, while
Nordic peers are flatter and Gjensidige (GJF, Hold,
TP NOK 210) is up 12%. Compared to other sectors, the low interest rates
have not increased investors willingness to pay for growth and we find
the current pricing attractive at 6x P/E’21e. While not a good comparison,
GJF trades at 22x, the same as Tryg (TRYG DC, not covered) and
Topdanmark (TOP DC, not covered) trades at 19x P/E’21e. In our view,
this is a noticeable difference for companies in the same sector, where
none of the companies mentioned have solvency issues. It should be
noted however, that PROTCT is not paying any dividends while the other
insurers mentioned here offer yields of 4-5% for 2021e. On the back of
the increases estimates we increase our target price to NOK 65 (60) and
reiterate our Buy recommendation

Analyst:
Vegard Toverud & Ola Øvrebø