Yara - ekstraordinært utbytte for 3 kv?
Det snakkes om 24 kr pr aksje. I tillegg så har urea prisene stabilisert seg og gass prisene er noe høyere men,,,,alt i alt kommer det gode tall(?) + utbytte(?). Aksjen burde gå på det allerede nå. Vi som følger selskapet synes det er en god timing å kjøpe aksjen nå - OG den er litt "glemt" av mange. Støtte på 345 kr flg Investtech som "spår" en rekyl herifra.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:12
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DNB står også fast på kjøp og kursmål 450 . Tror selv at saueflokken snur , før den ville falt utenfor stupet og at foret ( utbytte ) gir en annen retning
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:12
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Handelsbanken med analyse før tall:
Q3 consensus too optimistic about timing of nitrate improvement
• 2020e: dividends of NOK 25 (total EO) and NOK 10 (ordinary)
• Reiterate BUY and target price of NOK 450
Q3e marginally down; 2021e lower on gas assumption
Nitrogen fertiliser prices have improved strongly in Q3 alongside rising natural gas costs. Nitrate prices rose later in 2020 than post-Q2 consensus had baked in, thereby impacting a smaller proportion of Yara’s Q3. Our Q3 2020 adjusted EBITDA forecast falls marginally, to USD 529m (538m), relative to Infront consensus at the end of July at USD 600m. Gas prices have increased from a low base and we turn more cautious on 2021-22 owing to gas costs, although we do not expect a fundamental strengthening of the natural gas market.
New segmental reporting from Q3
Yara will adopt a new regional organisational reporting structure from Q3 2020. The group plans to publish restated figures soon; until then, we continue to use the existing reporting structure for our estimates.
Fundamentals improving; cash-flow surge after divestment
Yara has indicated that the board will consider additional cash returns in Q3-Q4. As the sale of Qafco is now settled (cash payment of USD 1bn), it looks to us as though the group could pay higher EO dividends while maintaining its 5% share buyback programme and still remain within its targeted debt range. We now assume EO dividends of NOK 10 for Q3 and NOK 15 for Q4, in addition to an ordinary dividend of NOK 10 for 2020. Given strong fundamentals and the cash flow/debt ratio lifting the odds of higher shareholder returns in 2021-22, we reiterate BUY.
Q3 consensus too optimistic about timing of nitrate improvement
• 2020e: dividends of NOK 25 (total EO) and NOK 10 (ordinary)
• Reiterate BUY and target price of NOK 450
Q3e marginally down; 2021e lower on gas assumption
Nitrogen fertiliser prices have improved strongly in Q3 alongside rising natural gas costs. Nitrate prices rose later in 2020 than post-Q2 consensus had baked in, thereby impacting a smaller proportion of Yara’s Q3. Our Q3 2020 adjusted EBITDA forecast falls marginally, to USD 529m (538m), relative to Infront consensus at the end of July at USD 600m. Gas prices have increased from a low base and we turn more cautious on 2021-22 owing to gas costs, although we do not expect a fundamental strengthening of the natural gas market.
New segmental reporting from Q3
Yara will adopt a new regional organisational reporting structure from Q3 2020. The group plans to publish restated figures soon; until then, we continue to use the existing reporting structure for our estimates.
Fundamentals improving; cash-flow surge after divestment
Yara has indicated that the board will consider additional cash returns in Q3-Q4. As the sale of Qafco is now settled (cash payment of USD 1bn), it looks to us as though the group could pay higher EO dividends while maintaining its 5% share buyback programme and still remain within its targeted debt range. We now assume EO dividends of NOK 10 for Q3 and NOK 15 for Q4, in addition to an ordinary dividend of NOK 10 for 2020. Given strong fundamentals and the cash flow/debt ratio lifting the odds of higher shareholder returns in 2021-22, we reiterate BUY.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:12
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Yara tar fint i mot støtte og skal nå bygge et sterkt momentum.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 07:12
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