Det er helt riktig at Tank er en syklisk bransje, det er alle rederier bevis på, unntaket med Fro er at de ikke har gått konkurs som mange andre rederier har gjort. De betaler ut godt utbytte til aksjonærene, har en gjrnnomsnitlig ung flåte, er et veldrevet rederi B/E på 19500, har 70% av flåten på rater 63+, har kontakter, vet å levere.

Dagens kurs 58 ish betyr at den har falt nok, den kommer til å stige frem til Q3 presenteres, utbytte blir det.

58 var åpenbart ikke nok. Har tatt et lite lodd her nå. 55-tallet var for fristende. Men det er ikke mye positivitet og interesse rundt tank om dagen, så ser ikke bort fra at det blir mulig å kjøpe enda lavere.

Utbyttet Q2 ble kjørt inn i ACC-ME for boost,
opp 50%, salg, deretter ny MC, for sommersesongen 21.
Ikke 5 øre fra lønningsposen. Dette likte jeg.

Det er ikke mye interesse rundt shipping generelt. Hvorfor forstår jeg ikke, det er frykt som er svaret. FRO gir deg 15% i utbytte pr år i gjennomsnitt ish. Skal all transport av olje plutselig opphøre? Verden går videre uansett hva som skjer så trenger transport sektoren drivstoff og den må transporteres. Det er dager hvor man gjør gode kjøp og dårlige salg. FRO sitter jeg på, for om 5 år når verden kommer tilbake til sitt "normale" så har jeg 5 år med gode utbytter, økt kurs, ja hvem vet. Sitt rolig i båten, kjøp når sjansen byr seg.....

Se framover og sitt rolig;
Shocking tanker prognostication from McQuilling, massive scrapping around the corner and negative fleet growth 2021. 11 VLCC expected 2020 and a further 53 for 2021. Record US export expected late 2021. Bull market in a year & then 2 years.

Jeg velger å sitte rolig med Frontline, maktet ikke å la vær å øke med påfyll idag.

Hvis ikke Fro holder igjen alt, noe de bør, er potensialet ca 2 kr fra Fro i q3 tipper 1,5kr
USA forventninger igger på 0,32 dollar.

Du får ikke 15% dividende fremover når inntjeningen går i break,

Med tanke på hvor mye resten av den amerikanske børsen faller, klarer shipping seg ganske bra. FRO er nå 1% høyere enn den sluttet i Oslo. Hadde satset på at jeg skulle få kjøpt enda billigere, men kursen snudde rett foran nesa på meg. Men EURN fikk jeg lastet på absolutt laveste kurs siste år. Andre tankaksjer klarer seg brukbart. TNK er til og med i pluss. Tyder på at vi skraper bunnen i tank.

Hvorfor tror du det? forde Covid eksplosivt øker?

Vix opp 18% snart tilbake på mai nivåer

Av samme grunn som du kjøpte FRO på 60 kr kanskje?

Du skulle kjøpt Tnk, den steg 3 prosent

Den kjøpte jeg i forrige uke :)

Bra, sitter du på bear derivater?

Satt short i SPX men dekket i dag.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/uncertainty-will-dominate-demand-for-tankers-moving-forward/

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/tankers/winter-could-be-a-serious-dud-for-tankers-with-weak-rates-expected/2-1-900488

Tjaa, ordreboka for bygging av nye tankskip er den laveste siden 1989....

"Futures markets continue to be in contango, ''

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/agriculture/102620-interview-indian-oil-demand-revival-boosted-by-robust-auto-sales-ioc-chairman-says?mkt_tok=eyjpijoitw1nd1lqrxhoalpttvrsayisinqioiirsgdnr0rlnxjuwkvkz1mzxc9ttys5ofrcl29ra3ffskjtyuc5wdz3yknxrm81t2ozajhhbvwvxc9jzgn1y213whjjczg1zfdzujdtd3rrn1zlv0tlskrwtfdidhbzrdv3bumzwvjrvtjnnty1d1nymgfprlfxs1yrqtnna3ltr2funwwifq%3d%3d

Clarkson Platou

All tanker markets overview

https://www.nat.bm/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Weeklyfreightrates201023.pdf

Nok en bra artikkel Uniten med grafer

Oil Drops on Covid-19 Resurgence, Extra Libyan Crude

https://howtoassetmanage.com/oil-drops-on-covid-19-resurgence-extra-libyan-crude/

Oljeprisen og tankrater burde jo være i høysesongen, nå til vinteren. Har virkelig Corona pandemi maktet å snu, iforhold til tidligere sesongshistrorikk? Frontline har jo prioritert å betale mye gjeld, (ref. Q2 rapport). Så ska jo bære ekonomisk stabil.

FRO faller mye mer enn andre tankaksjer i dag, så jeg solgte meg ut av Euronav og prøver bunnfiske her. Det er på dager som dette man gjør gode kjøp, og som man angrer på at man ikke benyttet seg av når sola skinner igjen :)

Yesterday saw the largest reduction in net leverage in more than a month (as measured by GS PB).

US equities saw the largest hedge fund net selling since late July (-1.9 SDs), driven by short sales and long sales (4 to 1).

Kjempebra side, har nå åpen hele tiden

https://themarketear.com

Hva kan Target være denne runden <50,- ?

Contango?

EIA
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending October 23, 2020

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 13.4 million barrels per day during the week ending October 23, 2020 which was 363,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 74.6% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 5.7 million barrels per day last week, increased by 0.5 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 5.5 million barrels per day, 13.1% less than the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 460,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 344,000 barrels per day.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 492.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 9% above the five year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 4.5 million barrels last week and are about 17% above the five year average for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 100,000 barrels last week and are about 11% above the five year average for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 3.9 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.9 million barrels a day, down by 11.3% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, down by 10.2% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 5.2% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was down 44.3% compared with the same four-week period last year.

Her kan vi få en ny runde med contango før vi vet ordet av det.

Guvernøren i NYC Åpent brev til Trump

October 27, 2020.

Dear Donald,

Our country is seeing a surge in COVID; there have been almost half a million new confirmed COVID cases in the US in just one week. While the number of new cases per 100,000 residents in New York remains low relative to other states, New York State is not in a hermetically sealed bubble.

COVID is still here and continues to spread in communities in New York, particularly when people do not follow the safety protocols in place to control the virus. We continue to see outbreaks linked to mass gatherings at houses of worship, at weddings and funerals, and other events where too many people gather.

We cannot let our guard down and risk sliding backward in New York. We all must remain vigilant as the weather gets colder and as we are up against "COVID fatigue." Stay NY Smart: Wear a mask, socially distance and follow the public health guidance. It's there to save lives.


Chart of the Day: The statewide test positivity rate (the orange line) remains under 2 percent.

Here's what else you need to know tonight:

1. California has been added to New York's Travel Advisory. Individuals traveling to New York from California must quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in NY. Massachusetts meets the criteria for the travel advisory but due to the region's interconnectedness, quarantine is not practically viable. As such, New York highly discourages non-essential travel between Massachusetts and New York to the extent practical. See more info here.

2. The positivity rate in the "micro-cluster" focus areas was 3.65 percent yesterday. The statewide positivity rate excluding these areas was 1.53 percent. Of the 111,618 tests reported yesterday, 1,991, or 1.78 percent, were positive. There were 1,083 total hospitalizations. Sadly, we lost 15 New Yorkers to the virus.

3. SUNY will require on-campus students to test negative for COVID-19 before leaving for Thanksgiving break. That means SUNY's 64 colleges and universities will test about 140,000 people over a 10-day period leading up to Thanksgiving break. Per the policy, colleges in the SUNY system should schedule tests as close as possible to students' departure date. "I want to thank our students for the phenomenal effort during these difficult times as well as SUNY health policy experts for helping us create this guidance that ensures a safe wind down of the fall semester," said SUNY Chancellor Jim Malatras.

4. The MTA will begin a voluntary COVID-19 screening program for frontline transit employees. Under this new initiative, free COVID testing will be offered at field locations and medical assessment and occupational health services centers to frontline NYC Transit, LIRR, Metro-North and Bridge and Tunnels employees. Up to 2,000 frontline MTA employees will be screened per week under the initial phase of the program. Read more here.

Tonight's "Deep Breath Moment": A Pulitzer Prize-winning composer is giving Central Park its own soundtrack. Composer Ellen Reid has written new music for an app called Soundwalk that is intended especially for visitors of Central Park. The app uses GPS to know where you are walking in the Park — and what you hear on your headphones changes depending on the route you take. In this way, the listener becomes a composer too. The music for this immersive auditory experience includes 25 different nature-inspired themes, recorded by members of the New York Philharmonic, among others.

If you were forwarded this email, you can subscribe to New York State's Coronavirus Updates here.

Ever Upward,

Governor Andrew M. Cuomo

Tankers International
@TankersInt
·
6t
Front Duchess (2017 - Modern Scrubber) On Subs WAfr/China WS 29.00 Unipec London Nov 24-26 Frontline Demurrage USD 28K (TCE: RV USD 15.2K @ 72.13 days / Actual USD 15.82K @ 71.87 days) 2.03 idle days

Rally i FRO! Sluttet over 2% høyere i USA enn i Norge :)

Dette burde snart få fart på den helvettes skrapingen i hvertfall, som er essensiell for bullcaset i 2022.

Rally? Den gikk ned med over 6 prosent.
Betyr det at du mener at Frontline skal stige imorgen i Norge? Så håper jeg å få hjelp av dollaren som stiger fra 9.13 til 9.37. Det er 0,24. Gang det med 5,65. Så er det over 1,30 kr.

Skraping har aldri snudd noe shipping trend, og gjør det neppe nå eller.

Et bullmarked som starter fra lavere total tonnasje pga skraping neste året, vil selvfølgelig være mer potent enn et bullmarked som starter uten skraping frem til 2022.

Trenger ikke doktorgrad for å skjønne det!

Det var et smiletegn, så det var ironisk ment, men uansett positivt at den steg 2% sammenlignet med OSE. EURN falt på samme tid, så fornøyd med at jeg solgte den og flyttet over til FRO tidligere i dag.

Jeg tror vi kan få en liten rekyl i morgen - kanskje på 4 prosent eller noe.
Og særlig dersom børsen får et kraftig løft i morgen

Olja 38$ fatet. Burde det bli kamp om lagring på tank igjen som i mars/april eller hva tenker folket?

Sannsynligheten for at vi går inn i en mye lengre contango periode nå er veldig opplagt. Vil anta at ratene skal stige betydelig fra nivåene de er på nå.
Fro på dette nivået er utrolig rimelig.
Fro vil være i stand til å betale utbytte hvert kvartal i overskuelig tid. Så inngang på dette nivået er en gavepakke..

Noen positive nyheter i Fro nå så vil det også komme en shortskvis. Short andel har økt betydelig de siste 2 ukene.

Ja, ikke langt fra 4% nå.