PAS er ute med en oppdatering på REC i dag, hvor de blant annet skriver følgende:

"Supercharged for the future

With the two partnership announcements earlier in October, REC Silicon’s business case is significantly de-risked in our view. It does not only allow for a Moses Lake re-opening but reduce volume risks drastically as it will demand all capacity from Moses Lake on our estimates. We eye a Moses Lake restart in late 2022e, running at 75% utilisation in 2023e before a full ramp-up the following year. Combined with the profitable Butte facility, this will yield an EBITDA of USD 129m in 2023e and USD 200m in 2024e. We lift our TP to NOK 25 (6) based on 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted with 9.5% WACC and a DCF using the discount factor. Buy reiterated.

Please note that Pareto Securities acted as Joint Lead Manager and Joint Bookrunner in the recent Private Placement in REC Silicon.

Two strong partnerships secured...
REC Silicon announced two new partnerships earlier in October with significant impact on the road ahead. US based solar cell manufacturer Violet Power will co-locate with the company at Moses Lake and establish a US solar supply chain. Further, global provider of silicon-carbon composite materials for Li-ion markets, Group14 Technologies, will establish an advanced silicon anode production facility for batteries in Moses Lake.

...meaning the business case is significantly de-risked...
REC Silicon will supply its high-purity silicon products in the form of FBR polysilicon to Violet Power and silane gas to Group14. The company will also help its two new partners in designing necessary facilities and infrastructure (no capex). On our estimates, these two will together demand all the production capacity at Moses Lake. As such, not only is a restart of Moses Lake (during 2022e on our estimates) significantly de-risked but the volume risk and market risk is completely altered.

...allowing for USD 200m EBITDA in 2024e...
When Moses Lake is re-opened, we expect PV grade polysilicon prices in line with the non-Chinese marginal cost producer at 15-16 USD/kg. Simultaneously, we expect slight increases for electronic grade polysilicon in line with the volume growth, as well as slightly increasing prices for silicon gases as more is demanded in the battery and semiconductor markets. At 75% utilisation for Moses Lake in 2023e, this will yield an EBITDA of USD 129m, growing to USD 200m in 2024e with Moses Lake at full capacity.

...suggesting a higher valuation
As the above suggest, the business risk is reduced. With funding in place, able to support the restart and the operational and investing activities leading up to it, as well as having ample headroom to bond covenants, this further de- risk the equity story. Based on 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted with a 9.5% WACC and a DCF using 9.5% WACC, we arrive at our new TP of NOK 25 (6). Considering REC Silicon is a green cleantech company providing products supporting global decarbonisation and electrification, we do not find this demanding. Buy reiterated.

Analyst
Gard Aarvik
Kari Eide Hartvedt"

Så får man se hvordan markedet tar i mot denne oppdateringen, og hvordan folk posisjonerer seg i forkant av morgendagens tallfremleggelse.