REC - Supercharged for the future (Buy reiterated: TP NOK 25,-)
PAS er ute med en oppdatering på REC i dag, hvor de blant annet skriver følgende:
"Supercharged for the future
With the two partnership announcements earlier in October, REC Silicon’s business case is significantly de-risked in our view. It does not only allow for a Moses Lake re-opening but reduce volume risks drastically as it will demand all capacity from Moses Lake on our estimates. We eye a Moses Lake restart in late 2022e, running at 75% utilisation in 2023e before a full ramp-up the following year. Combined with the profitable Butte facility, this will yield an EBITDA of USD 129m in 2023e and USD 200m in 2024e. We lift our TP to NOK 25 (6) based on 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted with 9.5% WACC and a DCF using the discount factor. Buy reiterated.
Please note that Pareto Securities acted as Joint Lead Manager and Joint Bookrunner in the recent Private Placement in REC Silicon.
Two strong partnerships secured...
REC Silicon announced two new partnerships earlier in October with significant impact on the road ahead. US based solar cell manufacturer Violet Power will co-locate with the company at Moses Lake and establish a US solar supply chain. Further, global provider of silicon-carbon composite materials for Li-ion markets, Group14 Technologies, will establish an advanced silicon anode production facility for batteries in Moses Lake.
...meaning the business case is significantly de-risked...
REC Silicon will supply its high-purity silicon products in the form of FBR polysilicon to Violet Power and silane gas to Group14. The company will also help its two new partners in designing necessary facilities and infrastructure (no capex). On our estimates, these two will together demand all the production capacity at Moses Lake. As such, not only is a restart of Moses Lake (during 2022e on our estimates) significantly de-risked but the volume risk and market risk is completely altered.
...allowing for USD 200m EBITDA in 2024e...
When Moses Lake is re-opened, we expect PV grade polysilicon prices in line with the non-Chinese marginal cost producer at 15-16 USD/kg. Simultaneously, we expect slight increases for electronic grade polysilicon in line with the volume growth, as well as slightly increasing prices for silicon gases as more is demanded in the battery and semiconductor markets. At 75% utilisation for Moses Lake in 2023e, this will yield an EBITDA of USD 129m, growing to USD 200m in 2024e with Moses Lake at full capacity.
...suggesting a higher valuation
As the above suggest, the business risk is reduced. With funding in place, able to support the restart and the operational and investing activities leading up to it, as well as having ample headroom to bond covenants, this further de- risk the equity story. Based on 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted with a 9.5% WACC and a DCF using 9.5% WACC, we arrive at our new TP of NOK 25 (6). Considering REC Silicon is a green cleantech company providing products supporting global decarbonisation and electrification, we do not find this demanding. Buy reiterated.
Analyst
Gard Aarvik
Kari Eide Hartvedt"
Så får man se hvordan markedet tar i mot denne oppdateringen, og hvordan folk posisjonerer seg i forkant av morgendagens tallfremleggelse.
"Supercharged for the future
With the two partnership announcements earlier in October, REC Silicon’s business case is significantly de-risked in our view. It does not only allow for a Moses Lake re-opening but reduce volume risks drastically as it will demand all capacity from Moses Lake on our estimates. We eye a Moses Lake restart in late 2022e, running at 75% utilisation in 2023e before a full ramp-up the following year. Combined with the profitable Butte facility, this will yield an EBITDA of USD 129m in 2023e and USD 200m in 2024e. We lift our TP to NOK 25 (6) based on 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted with 9.5% WACC and a DCF using the discount factor. Buy reiterated.
Please note that Pareto Securities acted as Joint Lead Manager and Joint Bookrunner in the recent Private Placement in REC Silicon.
Two strong partnerships secured...
REC Silicon announced two new partnerships earlier in October with significant impact on the road ahead. US based solar cell manufacturer Violet Power will co-locate with the company at Moses Lake and establish a US solar supply chain. Further, global provider of silicon-carbon composite materials for Li-ion markets, Group14 Technologies, will establish an advanced silicon anode production facility for batteries in Moses Lake.
...meaning the business case is significantly de-risked...
REC Silicon will supply its high-purity silicon products in the form of FBR polysilicon to Violet Power and silane gas to Group14. The company will also help its two new partners in designing necessary facilities and infrastructure (no capex). On our estimates, these two will together demand all the production capacity at Moses Lake. As such, not only is a restart of Moses Lake (during 2022e on our estimates) significantly de-risked but the volume risk and market risk is completely altered.
...allowing for USD 200m EBITDA in 2024e...
When Moses Lake is re-opened, we expect PV grade polysilicon prices in line with the non-Chinese marginal cost producer at 15-16 USD/kg. Simultaneously, we expect slight increases for electronic grade polysilicon in line with the volume growth, as well as slightly increasing prices for silicon gases as more is demanded in the battery and semiconductor markets. At 75% utilisation for Moses Lake in 2023e, this will yield an EBITDA of USD 129m, growing to USD 200m in 2024e with Moses Lake at full capacity.
...suggesting a higher valuation
As the above suggest, the business risk is reduced. With funding in place, able to support the restart and the operational and investing activities leading up to it, as well as having ample headroom to bond covenants, this further de- risk the equity story. Based on 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted with a 9.5% WACC and a DCF using 9.5% WACC, we arrive at our new TP of NOK 25 (6). Considering REC Silicon is a green cleantech company providing products supporting global decarbonisation and electrification, we do not find this demanding. Buy reiterated.
Analyst
Gard Aarvik
Kari Eide Hartvedt"
Så får man se hvordan markedet tar i mot denne oppdateringen, og hvordan folk posisjonerer seg i forkant av morgendagens tallfremleggelse.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 09:33
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Sa2ri
28.10.2020 kl 09:00
6566
Jeg er enig i at ESG-selskaper har en helt annen P/E, men enn så lenge ser det ikke ut til at markedet har akseptert REC som en ESG aksje. Jeg er tilbøyelig til å mene at REC med de grep de nå gjør, bør verdsettes som en ESG aksje. Men, markedet bestemmer.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Røkke blir nå omfavnet av markedet . Han er en 1r i næringslivet, som klarer å skape gode framtidsutsikter for det meste han er involvert i, gjennom sine kontakter internasjonalt. Stor forskjell her på kortsiktig gevinst og langsiktig investering, der det hele tiden bygges.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Odi.1
28.10.2020 kl 08:58
6763
hehe " Lett å skrive "we expect" uten å mått begrunne."
Gjette konkurangser kan alle holde på med. Ser tråden med reelle utgifter er fjernet av Finansavisen , tydelig agenda å lure mest mulig "grønnøyde" inn i dette eksperimentet.
Gjette konkurangser kan alle holde på med. Ser tråden med reelle utgifter er fjernet av Finansavisen , tydelig agenda å lure mest mulig "grønnøyde" inn i dette eksperimentet.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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nemi's
28.10.2020 kl 08:57
6820
Hva sier kundene til Scatec, da?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Boldor
28.10.2020 kl 08:57
6825
Deres bruk av P/E på 10 er beskjedent, 30-50 er ikke uvanlig i dag på ESG-selskaper.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Overkapasitet eller ikke - de har avtaler som sikrer avsetning på leveransene. Og etterspørselen etter sol vil bare stige globalt - mye. Og amerikanerne vil garantert ikke tillate å bi avhengig av kineserne.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Hva slags mentale problemer har du egentlig? Kinesiske fabrikker er subsidierte fra regimet med billig strøm, som blir drevet av kullkraft. Kina vil stå for en enorm økning i co2 utslipp neste 10 år, derav mye kull. Skal man lage grønn energi med kull så vil ikke kundene ha dette. Om du ikke forstår det anbefaler jeg å søke opptak på grunnskolen på nytt.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Dette caset er BULL!
TP er mer en dobling av kursen, og de er forsiktig i anslaget.
Kommer nok flere gode analyser fremover og er merkelig om ikke kursen skyter veldig fart snart over 14 kr... Her er det snakk om kun EN good news til så er aksjen nærmere 20...
TP er mer en dobling av kursen, og de er forsiktig i anslaget.
Kommer nok flere gode analyser fremover og er merkelig om ikke kursen skyter veldig fart snart over 14 kr... Her er det snakk om kun EN good news til så er aksjen nærmere 20...
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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nemi's
28.10.2020 kl 08:49
7128
When Moses Lake is re-opened, we expect PV grade polysilicon prices in line with the non-Chinese marginal cost producer at 15-16 USD/kg.
Polysil koster $10/kg. Det er vanvittig med ledig kapasitet som restartes så snart prisen kryper oppover, over hele verden. ASP på $15- USD/kg er helt hinsides.
Lett å skrive "we expect" uten å mått begrunne.
Jeg tror også en liter melk kommer til å stige med 60% om tre år. Og derfor kommer alle til plutselig å ville kjøpe. Meieriaksjer er drit-hot!
Dette er et bestillingsverk av PAS for å redde rep.emi'en. Alle skjønner det.
Restart i ML sent i 2022. Hvis, dersom.
Polysil koster $10/kg. Det er vanvittig med ledig kapasitet som restartes så snart prisen kryper oppover, over hele verden. ASP på $15- USD/kg er helt hinsides.
Lett å skrive "we expect" uten å mått begrunne.
Jeg tror også en liter melk kommer til å stige med 60% om tre år. Og derfor kommer alle til plutselig å ville kjøpe. Meieriaksjer er drit-hot!
Dette er et bestillingsverk av PAS for å redde rep.emi'en. Alle skjønner det.
Restart i ML sent i 2022. Hvis, dersom.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Gulene
28.10.2020 kl 08:46
7224
Første analysen på mange år som ser ved første øyekast ser troverdig og riktig ut. Ingen åpenbare feil i beregningene, kunne kanskje ha satt kursen noe høyere men de «safer» vel litt her;)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Sa2ri
28.10.2020 kl 08:43
7360
"Valuation
We lift our target price to NOK 25 (6) and reiterate our Buy recommendation. With the liquidity issue more or less resolved, a complete change in volume/production risk from Moses Lake and a lower share count compared to what we previously included we find our new TP undemanding.
Our TP reflects the average of the 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted back with 9.5% WACC and a DCF using a 9.5% WACC. Considering that we previously included a WACC of 13.5% to arrive at our fair value, one could argue that using a 9.5% cost of capital is conservative but with a 11.5% coupon and some timing and commodity price risk still prevalent, we are comfortable using 9.5% for now. Further, we do not find the 10x EV/EBITDA multiple demanding, rather it could be seen as low, considering REC Silicon is a green cleantech company providing products supporting global decarbonisation and electrification."
We lift our target price to NOK 25 (6) and reiterate our Buy recommendation. With the liquidity issue more or less resolved, a complete change in volume/production risk from Moses Lake and a lower share count compared to what we previously included we find our new TP undemanding.
Our TP reflects the average of the 10x 2023e EV/EBITDA discounted back with 9.5% WACC and a DCF using a 9.5% WACC. Considering that we previously included a WACC of 13.5% to arrive at our fair value, one could argue that using a 9.5% cost of capital is conservative but with a 11.5% coupon and some timing and commodity price risk still prevalent, we are comfortable using 9.5% for now. Further, we do not find the 10x EV/EBITDA multiple demanding, rather it could be seen as low, considering REC Silicon is a green cleantech company providing products supporting global decarbonisation and electrification."
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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Spennende dager dette her og god analyse. Kan bli veldig stort...
On our estimates, these two will together demand all the production capacity at Moses Lake.
Lykke til alle som eier aksjer nå :-))
On our estimates, these two will together demand all the production capacity at Moses Lake.
Lykke til alle som eier aksjer nå :-))
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 08:10
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