Fair share price of PNOR?


Analysts set target price 1.40 -1.50 NOK late 2019. The blocks in The Gambia and Senegal was set to zero value (more or less). The conclusion in the reports should an amicable solution be reached has a significant impact on the share price. We are partly there now. For instant Arctic wrote in their report 2019 that "A future high-impact trigger would also be a settlement in the ongoing arbitration process relating to the exploration licenses in Gambia and Senegal, though we do not expect any clarification before mid-2020." . Keywords "significant impact".

Block A4 in The Gambia is reinstated, and with improved condition according to PNOR :

"Under the terms of the settlement agreement, PetroNor will regain the A4 license and sign a 30-year lease under new terms. Further, PetroNor will relinquish any claims related to A1 license that has subsequently been awarded to a major oil company ".

"This settlement results in PetroNor regaining 100% interest in a highly prospective Block in one of the most exciting hydrocarbon basins in the world. The terms of the new license are significantly more attractive and will enhance not only the value of the license but also its attractiveness to potential partners. Importantly, we have a year to decide if we wish to proceed with the lease agreement, and we would expect to have seen drilling on the adjacent A1 license during this timeframe which will mean we are far better placed to make commercial and technical decisions regarding the next steps associated with our license."

My comments:
Valued 2019 by Sparebank Markets to be 0.09 NOK/share, based on 10% chance of amicable solution and with 20% ownership. That has now been changed to 100% on both parameters. Which means a rough additional value of 4.5 NOK per share (0.09/(0.1x0.2)). Lets assume a partner will get 60-70% ownership in exchange for the cost. Hence fair value of about 1.5 NOK per share.



Senegal Offshore Deep block off Casamance is about to reach an amicable solution, I think:

"The agreement to suspend the arbitration follows a period of progressive dialogue between the Company and relevant authorities"

My comment:
If we apply similar assumptions to this block as well a fair value would be 1.5 NOK per share. Assumption is that ROP will be kept by Total.




My conclusion: Fair share price as of 30.10.2020 ought to be 2.5 - 3.0 NOK.
A fair value including recent progress in cases against The Gambia and Senegal would be 1.5 NOK (includes everything but not A4 and SOSP) + 1.5 NOK (A4) + 1.5 NOK (SOSP) = 4.5 NOK per share.

Hence, given present trading range 1.30-1.40 NOK there ought to be significant upside towards 3-4 NOK and very limited downside.

Should in addition bid on Anadarko in Ghana be successful short term upside will be significant. Several NOK, potentially.



Analyst Coverage:
https://petronorep.com/media/1298/20191210_arctic_initiation-of-coverage.pdf

https://petronorep.com/media/1299/20191021_sparebank-1_panoro-aje-deal.pdf


Trigger list and webinars below, copied from FkL (https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/114306/view/0/0?page=11)
List will be amended as changes/decision comes in.

19.09.20 - Amicable agreement with The Gambia regarding block A1 and A4. (significant impact on share price, however not seen in share price at all, yet)
26.10.20 - 180 dagers sakspause med forhandlinger i Senegal - børsmelding
02.11.20 - Extension one week "180 dagers sakspause med forhandlinger i Senegal - børsmelding"
31.10.20 - Avklaring budrunde Anadarko 30.000 bpd i Ghana
05.11.20 - Company Webinar with SpareBank1 Markets
xx.xx.20 - Nigeria Marginal license round - kunngjøring av vinnere
XX.11.20 - Myndighetsgodkjennelse Nigeria Aje
XX.11.20 - Fordelingsvurdering aksjer/kontanter Aje oppgjør, innføring av nye aksjer
XX.11.20 - Produksjonsøkning (Aje) + 320 bpd
05.11.20 - ICSID sakspause ROP/SOSP Senegal
30.11.20 - Q3-rapport 2020 - Forventet snittpris på salg av olje $43
XX.12.20 - Flytting av selskapet fra Australia til Norge
XX.12.20 - Avvikling av styremedlemmer i Australia
15.12.20 - Senegal license round
31.12.20 - Avtalefrist forhandlinger nytt oljefelt PNGF Bis
31.12.20 - Mulig Koronavaksine
XX.XX.20 - Flaringavtale via Bream Energy. Vi er godkjent og har bud inne.
XX.XX.20 - Innfill drilling via nyinstallert Wellhead plattform på PNGF Sud i Kongo - produksjonsøkning
XX.XX.20 - FAR skal borre på A2 lisensen
XX.XX.21 - BP skal borre på A1 i Gambia
01.04.21 - Total skal trolig borre på ROP
01.30.21 - Extension three month "180 dagers sakspause med forhandlinger i Senegal - børsmelding"
XX.XX.21 - Det skal borres tre nye brønner på Aje i Nigeria
19.09.21 - Avklaring videre aktivitet A4 i Gambia
31.12.23 - 30.000 BOEPD produksjon

Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 09:23 Du må logge inn for å svare
tuja
29.10.2020 kl 12:41 10067

Uten tvil er PNOR pr i dag ekstremt underpriset. Dette mtp hva de har av assets, løsning i Gambia, og nå en forventet løsning i Senegal. I tillegg er der flere mulige triggere innen kort tidshorisont iht kjøp av produserende assets. En meget spennende aksje, både på kort og lang tidshorisont. Allerede mandag rett over helga kan det komme kursdrivende nyheter.

:)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
thief
29.10.2020 kl 12:45 10031

I forbindelse med fusjonen mellom apcl og petronor,ble verdiene av eventuelle forlik beregnet i en uavhengig ekspertrapport. Da ble de satt til ca 1kr i hvert av landene!Det er jo grovt regnet.Men ingen tvil om at kursen burde vært høyere med Gambia i boks allerede,og Senegal på trappene 🙂Så har man jo nye avtaler i tillegg,hvor petronor har sagt at de har kapital til å kjøpe så mye som 20.000fat om dagen i produksjon, det er villt!Så vi skal nok godt oppover i 2020/21!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
29.10.2020 kl 12:54 9968

Yes, if an amicable solution in the case against Senegal will be settled a fair price would be > 3.5 NOK. It should already by now trade well above 2 NOK.

So finally, APCL transformed into PNOR has become a very interesting investment case!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
29.10.2020 kl 13:24 9910

I'll take it that analysts will update target price shortly given recent development in The Gambia, Senegal and Congo etc . . .
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare

I think this makes a lot of sense, and I think im not the only one who is quite surprised that you can buy stocks at this price (around 1,40 NOK) when we have an agreemend confirmed with Gambia.
Additionally, taking a look at the articles and PM regarding Senegal I feel pretty convinced that we certainly won't walk out with nothing.

I think the big problem here is that there is so little intereset in buying the stocks. I mean, more than half of the day done, and not more than stocks at a value of totalt 100 K NOK is bought/sold. I think PetroNor needs to work harder at attracting new and existing shareholders.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
29.10.2020 kl 13:49 9837

Often that's the time to buy when market shows little interest to an obviously very undervalued stock. Once updated target price hit the market (and it will) with upside of several 100% the chance to gain significant profit is easily missed out, if investment is done after any update.

In the case of PNOR the facts is already there . . . it's just a matter of time until we see some big moves. That's my thoughts.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
thief
29.10.2020 kl 14:49 9728

Bare en handledag igjen,før oppdatering angående Senegal 🙂Tipper vi ender opp med sosp og partner i desember!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare

Jeg forventer at aktien vil stige i morgen 15-20 % for de der skal ind og positionere sig inden Weekenden.
Meldingen kan også allerede komme i morgen !!!!!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
thief
29.10.2020 kl 16:32 9570

Var vel oppe i 1.65 her om dagen,på forventninger!Så burde vel kanskje opp på 1.55-1.6 i morgen!Kommer en oppdatering,som garantert er positiv.Voldgiften går ikke videre,og da tyder det helt klart på løsning🙂
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
tuja
29.10.2020 kl 16:36 9539

Ja, tror også vi får en positiv oppdatering over helga. Alt ligger til rette for det. Og som Fkl sier, så tror han på flere triggere, utenom Senegal. Spennende blir det "læll".

:)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
29.10.2020 kl 17:09 9435

Agree on what's said here, The Gambia and Senegal will have significant impact on share, but so will other neartime trigger as well. Check list by FkL

26.10.20 - 180 dagers sakspause med forhandlinger i Senegal - børsmelding
02.11.20 - Extension one week "180 dagers sakspause med forhandlinger i Senegal - børsmelding"
31.10.20 - Avklaring budrunde Anadarko 30.000 bpd i Ghana
xx.xx.20 - Nigeria Marginal license round - kunngjøring av vinnere
XX.11.20 - Myndighetsgodkjennelse Nigeria Aje
XX.11.20 - Fordelingsvurdering aksjer/kontanter Aje oppgjør, innføring av nye aksjer
XX.11.20 - Produksjonsøkning (Aje) + 320 bpd
05.11.20 - ICSID sakspause ROP/SOSP Senegal
30.11.20 - Q3-rapport 2020 - Forventet snittpris på salg av olje $43
XX.12.20 - Flytting av selskapet fra Australia til Norge
XX.12.20 - Avvikling av styremedlemmer i Australia
15.12.20 - Senegal license round
31.12.20 - Avtalefrist forhandlinger nytt oljefelt PNGF Bis
31.12.20 - Mulig Koronavaksine
XX.XX.20 - Flaringavtale via Bream Energy. Vi er godkjent og har bud inne.
XX.XX.20 - Innfill drilling via nyinstallert Wellhead plattform på PNGF Sud i Kongo - produksjonsøkning
XX.XX.20 - FAR skal borre på A2 lisensen
XX.XX.21 - BP skal borre på A1 i Gambia
01.04.21 - Total skal trolig borre på ROP
XX.XX.21 - Det skal borres tre nye brønner på Aje i Nigeria
19.09.21 - Avklaring videre aktivitet A4 i Gambia
31.12.23 - 30.000 BOEPD produksjon

https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/114306/view/0/0?page=11
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
30.10.2020 kl 11:51 9054

This presentation incl Q&A was recorded on the 28th September 2020. Have a look, there is great factual as well as getting a feel of the type management info in it. Both short and long term potential is impressive.

Major short term trigger successful bid in Ghana and amicable solution with Senegal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hykIq1prFy4&feature=youtu.be
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
30.10.2020 kl 12:11 8972

Further suspension of the Senegal case is good news and indicates a high likelihood of reaching an amicable solution.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
tuja
30.10.2020 kl 12:23 8959

Denne er vel så spennende:

31.10.20 - Avklaring budrunde Anadarko 30.000 bpd i Ghana
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
klaesp
30.10.2020 kl 12:39 8894

Enig, ref artikkelen til FKL 👍
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
thief
30.10.2020 kl 13:32 8768

Ja,er jo mye annet,som er like spennende som Senegal 🙂Petronor jobber jo mye med å få på plass nye avtaler, det lyste jo igjennom presentasjonen på xtrainvestor for litt siden.Det er en like stor trigger.Og der kan det tikke inn nyheter når som helst.Vi vet om Ghana, som burde være like rundt hjørnet,men de er nok med i flere budrunder. De da jo at denne pandemien hadde slått heldig ut for petronor,mtp tilgang til kapital og muligheter.Så de jobber nok hardt med å få noe i land🙂Så får vi ta Senegal om noen uker. Lisensrunden avsluttes om 6 uker,da er det spennende igjen og traderene skal inn,He.. he!Og med kombinert julerally(vaksine godkjent),så er vi ikke på 1.4kr😉Rart hvor kortsiktige mange er
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
30.10.2020 kl 15:11 8651

Update on the companies activities 5th November 2020:

PetroNor E&P Limited: Invitation to webinar 5 November 2020

30 October 2020

PetroNor E&P Limited
(“PetroNor” or the “Company”)

PetroNor E&P Limited: Invitation to webinar 5 November 2020

Company Webinar with SpareBank1 Markets

PetroNor (OSE ticker: “PNOR”), the independent oil and gas exploration and production company with a focus on production, development and exploration assets across sub-Saharan Africa, announces that it will host a webinar with SpareBank1 Markets at 12:30 (Oslo) on Thursday, 5 November 2020.

The webinar will be hosted by PetroNor's CEO Knut Søvold, Business Development Manager Gerhard Ludvigsen and Teodor Sveen-Nilsen, Equity Analyst with SpareBank1 Markets. The purpose of the webinar is to provide a general update of the Company's activities.

Investors wishing to follow can register through the following link: https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/2718442854688918796

The playback of the event will be made available on the Company website.

*****

For further information, please contact:
Knut Søvold, Chief Executive Officer
Chris Butler, Group Financial Controller
info@petronorep.com
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
30.10.2020 kl 15:23 8619

Agree, Ghana is very interesting and we should get an update soon (any time).
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
thief
30.10.2020 kl 15:37 8585

Kanskje de sier noe 5.nov🙂
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
30.10.2020 kl 15:48 8556

Yes, I would expect the company to give some substantial information regarding their activities. Senegal, Ghana, Congo, Nigeria . . . well the list is long.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
klaesp
31.10.2020 kl 10:57 8273

Bør komme en avklaring i helgen på bud prosessen..
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
31.10.2020 kl 11:45 8219

In a recent article Africa Intelligence claimed PNOR put a bid on Ghana's two oil producing block, currently held by Occidental Petroleum, producing 30.000 bpd. The winning bid is to be announced at the end of October 2020 (this weekend?). The ownership of Occidental Petroleum Ghana blocks are 18% in Deepwater Tano Block and 30.88% in West Cape Three Points.

On a straight forward question PNOR neither confirm or deny their bid on the aforementioned blocks (deny would be easy in case of no bid?). It's a game changer for PNOR if they win. A rough estimate of what it means for PNOR can be made by simply multiplying 30.000 bpd by 50% (18%+30.88%) which equates to 15 000 bpd. Currently PNOR is producing 3.000 bpd. Hence, the two blocks would over night increase their production by 5 times. My numbers are only ball park figures and we don't know the deal PNOR have with the local partners.

PNOR may have some advantage to other bidders. According to Africa Intelligence PNOR has teamed up with local companies, which is according to sources the preferred constellation by Ghana's government. Also, PNOR is politically neutral compared to state owned CNOOC.

Senegal is on, pm yesterday suggest to me that amicable solution is much more likely than arbitration solution.

Information on 5th November will be interesting, I will be all ears.



Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
tuja
31.10.2020 kl 11:50 8211

Tenk om....... Da blir det flaggdag.

:)
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
01.11.2020 kl 12:22 7830

No official news yet regarding the outcome on the Ghana bid. Also, Senegal case suspended three month suggesting an amicable solution is likely.

Update on webinar on 5th November hosted by Sparebank 1 Markets.

Exciting times ahead!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
klaesp
01.11.2020 kl 12:39 7791

Kanskje de skal hente ett lite beløp til en emisjon i forbindelse med oppkjøp Ghana..(kun spekulasjon).

DE har nettopp hatt en presentasjon av aktiviteter , hva er ellers hensikten med en slik presentasjon rett i etterkant?
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare

Markedsføring av selskapet sitt er sjelden feil. Ikke alle kjenner Petronor i detalj.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
klaesp
01.11.2020 kl 12:49 7761

Enig, men ser ikke hensikten med så "tette oppdateringer "
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
thief
01.11.2020 kl 12:52 7760

Trenger vel ikke emisjon med Abu Dahbi på laget😉Petronor har jo sagt at de stiller med kapital!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
klaesp
01.11.2020 kl 12:59 7728

Kanskje et lite beløp😉
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
02.11.2020 kl 13:00 7434

More details regarding Senegal and the outcome of Ghana bids must be round the corner. Webinar on 5th November?

"Africa Intelligent must be very intelligent" was the reply (webinar Sept. 2020) given by the company on a straight question regarding AIs article revealing that PNOR together with a local company has a bid on OXY assets in Ghana. If successful, the deal would overnight transform PNOR and potentially drive shareprice several NOK north in short term.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
tuja
02.11.2020 kl 14:40 7297

14:38:57
TDN Direkt
Diskuterer muligheten for utsatt oljeproduksjonsøkning

Russland diskuterer muligheten for å utsette den planlagte produksjonsøkningen fra Opec+ til andre kvartal, melder blant annet Forexlive.com.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
02.11.2020 kl 23:37 7116

Sparebank1 Markets has been appointed as market maker in order to supply market with stocks, and hopefully reduce the spread in bid/ask, at times 10%. The action may attract new investors.

Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
permph
03.11.2020 kl 07:26 6955

Oil prices ended higher Monday. The gain came after reports that oil companies in Russia discussed with Energy Minister Alexander Novak the possibility of maintaining current supply curtailments for a longer period of time.
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare

Market Maker hired => preparing moving to main list:)
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Blygen
03.11.2020 kl 09:40 6780

Satser et lite lodd på oppgang denne uken....:) Spennende om 2 dager....
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
HPoulsen
03.11.2020 kl 12:25 6675

Det bliver jo straks mere interessant, og der er da lidt mere volumen i dag, ærgerligt at interessen ikke er nok til en stigende kurs
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 01:55 Du må logge inn for å svare

"It is often felt that the Market Makers manipulate the prices. "Market Manipulation" is an emotive term, and conjurers images of shady deals and exploitation. Market Makers are not elusive companies that appear then vanish overnight. Market Makers are duty bound to make a market and to meet the needs of those they are responsible, to this end they may try to influence the market.

Market Makers are however known to lower prices to "panic" investors into selling, sometimes called "shaking the tree"? Moving the price up, encourages sells, moving it down also encourage sell, hence also the term dead cat bounce when a Market Maker will mark a falling stock up to encourage buyers in thinking they have reached the bottom."

https://www.advfn.com/Help/a-background-to-the-market-and-market-ma-71.html
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:09 Du må logge inn for å svare
thief
03.11.2020 kl 14:10 6551

Skulle ikke forundre meg om de fikk kjørt den ned mot 1.2kr,med litt ekstra rabalder i forbindelse med valget i dag!Blir det ingen klar vinner og usikkerheten forblir, så blir det nok rødt på børsene!
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:09 Du må logge inn for å svare
Blygen
04.11.2020 kl 16:16 6304

Det strammer seg til.....
Redigert 21.01.2021 kl 05:09 Du må logge inn for å svare