Skagen gutta gjor mye dumt. Det er bare slik det er.

Som vi kunne lese i Finansavisen for noen dager siden, så uttaler Skagen at de har solgt fordi samarbeidet med Schlumberger ble avsluttet samt større usikkerhet rundt Fortuna-prosjektet. Også andre større fond har tydeligvis vært negative til at samarbeidet med Schlumberger ble avsluttet. Som en direkte konsekvens av dette deltok styreformann Trøim selv ved forrige kvartalsrapportering.

DNB og flere andre analytikere anser at Fortuna-prosjektet aldri vil bli realisert (noe som også avspeiles i aksjekursen til Ophir). Golar selv uttaler at de jobber videre med prosjektet og jeg tipper de til slutt ender opp med en avtale som inkluderer et kinesisk verft og lånegivere.

Neste store trigger er FID på Tortue-prosjektet som BP har uttalt skal gjøres i slutten av året. Jeg er ganske sikker på at dette prosjektet blir realisert (BP søker allerede etter ansatte), selv om tidspunktet for FID muligens kan bli skjøvet inn i 2019.

Om dagens rater holder seg og Golar ikke går på en kostnadssmell vil dette de neste årene bli en pengemaskin av dimensjoner.

Mitt tips er at de velger å gjøre noe med LNG-flåten i løpet av de nærmeste årene. Enten via konsolidering eller salg.

tapogvinn,
Vi kan självfallet inte veta om vare sig Fortuna projekten eller Tortue blir verklighet. Men vi kan titta på fakta som det var och hur fakta har förändrats och vi kan lyssna på vad Golar säger. Jag håller med om att Tortue är mer sannolikt än Fortuna men jag håller inte med om att oddsen för Fortuna projektet att realiseras i dag bäst avläses genom Ophirs aktiekurs. Du skriver inte det men fonderna drop uppenbarligen slutsatsen att SLB's lämnande var ett underkännande av FLNG i Golars regi och speciellt Fortuna projektet.

Min uppfattning baserat på vad Golar säger är att SLB aldrig "levererade" det förväntade stöden som partner till Golar men att det hade mycket lite med FLNG tekniken eller Fortuna att göra. Istället fattade SLB ett mer övergripande beslut om att fokusera på kärnverksamheten och då ingick inte att vara den partner i samband med finansieringen som Golar hade hoppats på och då var samarbetet över.

Fortuna projektet är annorlunda för Golar än vad Hilli projektet och för den delen Tortue projektet är i två delar:
1. Tekniskt mer komplicerat för Golar då man är medansvarig på att inte bara hantera ren metangas att kyla ner utan även andra produkter som måste avskiljas innan nedkylning.
2. Man har inte den starka finansiella partner som Perenco och BP/Kosmos innebär och Ophir var oerhört svag finansiellt.

Men saker är på väg att förändras rätt dramatiskt för Fortuna projektet:
1. Ophir kommer troligen utan ersättning förlora projektet vid årsskiftet (om man inte lyckas sälja det innan dess), källa: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-equatorial-guinea-ophir-energy-lng-ex/exclusive-equatorial-guinea-may-strip-ophir-of-lng-project-due-to-finance-delays-idUSKCN1IF1PD Ophir inser att man är i ett mycket besvärligt läge (vem vill betala för något man kan få gratis efter årsskiftet) och har halverat bokfört värde. Min åsikt är att det ändå finns ett värde i att köpa projektet och få ta över utfört arbete. Min gissning är att vi hittar köparna bland bolag som Perenco (Hilli) eller Kosmos (Tortue). Både Golar och Ophir bekräftar att arbete med att hitta ny huvudoperatör för Fortuna pågår. Rimligen god chans att vi har nyheter om detta i år.

2. Det andra som har förändrats dramatiskt är att Hilli idag är bevisat "proof of concept". Av uppenbara skäl viktigt för tilltänkta långivare.

3. Det tredje som har förändrats är att Golar har gett upp motståndet att göra konvertering av nästa FLNG i Kina istället för Singapore (se senaste conf call) vilket anses vara vad som krävs för kinesisk finansiering. Kineskisk finansiering bör också vara än mer sannolik nu när de bojkottar amerikanska projekt.

4. Det fjärde som hänt är att Golars balansräkning och belåningsutrymme vid 95k usd/dag för LNGC är dramatiskt annorlunda än 50k tidigare i år. Som du säger kan man närmast välja mellan att behålla dem som pengamaskin, låsa på långa rater med ökat belåningsutrymme eller drop till GMLP eller kanske strategisk försäljning. Hur man än vrider på det så är Golar finansiellt mycket starkare. Att Hilli finansieringen spikades har också stärkt det.

Många av dessa slutsatser var i alla fall för mig uppenbara redan i juni. Jag skulle vilja tillägga två saker slutligen:
1. Blir Fortuna av så kommer det troligen vara det klart lönsammaste FLNG projektet Golar gör vilket ska ställas mot att Hilli vid 75% kapacitet (T1 - T3 men inte T4 pre drops) och 100 usd olja avkastar 4 dollar per aktie EBITDA.

Nedan Tor Olav från senaste conf call, hela transcript länkat längst ner.

Tor Olav Trøim

Thank you to Graham and Iain for the presentation. As the Chairman in Golar, I have been asked to have three, four minutes before the Q&A.

It was commented after the last call that – from several of the large shareholders that I as chairman and big promoter of the Schlumberger venture should have been there on the call to take heat from the Schlumberger divorce.

The divorce from Schlumberger was sad. And I really believed in the concept of working together with a great upstream partner.

However, in a partnership, you also need a partner willing to commit to necessary resources to the partnership.

After Schlumberger in January committed not to do any further material investment in the SPM area, this partnership was clearly not working.

That had nothing to do with their belief in Fortuna project. It had all to do with their appetite for SPM investments. It was more about Schlumberger’s commitment to their shareholders to focus on existing business than an evaluation of what they were doing together with us.

As stated by Iain, the termination of the Schlumberger agreement has opened new doors. And in many ways, improved the outlook for this and other prospects.

The Fortunate project is a project which showed the great return with LNG prices at around $4 and these, obviously, are showing significant better return with LNG price at $8.

A 100% uptime and deliveries significantly under budget is in addition a great testimony to the Golar staff in commencement with the Hilli operation. It’s probably the best advertising for FLNG solutions to monetize stranded gas.

Perenco’s return on the first LNG transaction done on a speculative basis is nothing else than spectacular.

I've been involved in Golar for 19 years. I've all the time been a firm believer in LNG solutions. Today, I will accept that we started far too early, but at the same time know it’s happening.

The parity to oil is broken. The first liner company have placed their LNG newbuilding orders. China is delivering as many LNG trucks as Tesla delivering cars and the big trains from Australia and America is commencing.

LNG is today both cheaper and cleaner than alternative fuel uses.

As stated in our Capital Markets Day, there is today a $500 billion yearly arbitrage, substituting expensive oil products with cheaper and cleaner gas. The Chinese clearly see this, looking to a 50% growth in import this year.

This and the opportunity pipeline we today have in Golar makes me excited. We in Golar generally believe that stranded gas today is one of the most undervalued assets in the energy chain and thereby also one of the biggest value creation to monetize.

Golar is, with its technology, uniquely positioned to capitalize this opportunity. I'm pleased to report that the board of Golar in connection with the quarterly meeting revisited our dividend strategy.

We are, obviously, today nearing completion of a $4 billion investment phase and moving to a cash flow phase including Hilli, the improved shipping market and the Sergipe and Nanook commencement.

We are fully financed for all the existing activities. And we had, as of June 30, the cash position including restricted and unrestricted cash in excess of $650 million.

In view of this, the board agreed to increase the dividend 150% from $0.05 a quarter to $0.125 a quarter, or $0.50 on an annual basis.

The board has at the same time, in the Q3 report, given a strong commitment to shareholders that the target is to increase the dividend further in the period to come as the cash flow continues to increase.

This is supported by the already contracted deals that’s realized a strong improvement with today’s [indiscernible] shipping market.

Golar is today a fully integrated company with pieces of the puzzles which comes from all the way from producing LNG to producing power. It’s a very different company than when we started 20 years ago or even 10 years ago.

I accept that it is a complicated structure and it’s particularly complicated because of the now unwinded OneLNG and Golar Power, but I hope we, over time, can make it more transparent and easier to understand.

However, the most important thing for me as chairman of this company and beneficial owner of more than 5.5 million shares, including shares I bought also this year, is that we’re coming to the start of the cash flow period. This includes unique projects like the Sergipe and Nanook projects which will start next year, generating cash flow of more than $1 million a day for the next 25 years.

Golar’s LNG shares of that cash flow is more than $100 million on a year basis. And the EBITDA, backlog based on this project isolated is actually larger than the market capitalization of Golar LNG.

I hope my participation in this call confirms to everyone who complained about my no-show in the last call that, as chairman and large shareholder, I stand truly behind and very confident of the developments in our company.

We have a super competent management which executes extremely well in what is, from time to time, a very frustrating and bureaucratic business.

I'm, as chairman, however, very excited. I'm confident about the prospect of LNG as cheap and clean energy source and the opportunity this will create for Golar to deliver some return to our shareholders in the years to come, a very good return.

In many ways, in all my business life, which include 19 years working in the Fredriksen Group, I've never been more excited and convinced that we are in the right growth commodity business.

I want to leave it at that and hope this gives some evidence that kind of the whole team of Golar are super-excited about what’s coming on. It is frustrating from time to time the time it takes to do deals, but when you can do deals with fixed return cash flow of $1 million per day in 25 years, I think it’s all understood by everybody and it takes a little bit of time.

Thank you. And I hope of some of the confidence Iain, Graham and I trying to give you today also gets reflected by the investors in the period to come. Thank you.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4201727-golar-lng-limiteds-glng-ceo-iain-ross-q2-2018-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single

Känns för mig som att han talade till dessa två fonder när han säger:
"It was commented after the last call that – from several of the large shareholders that I as chairman and big promoter of the Schlumberger venture should have been there on the call to take heat from the Schlumberger divorce."

För mig krockar det tänkandet/agerandet (från de två fonderna) i så fall med vad jag ser som uppenbara positiva förändringar som vi som dokumenterat ovan kunde se redan i juni månad.

OB,

Takk for lange og informative innleg. Vi ser nok ganske likt på Golar, men foreløpig virker det ikke som markedet deler vår optimisme. Vi får håpe FID for Tortue og et par overbevisende kvartalsrapporter kan sende kursen opp på et mer fornuftig nivå.

Det finns ingen direkt orsak mer än en rätt svag amerikansk shipping marknad igår. Jag brukar placera GLNG i ungefär samma grupp som Teekay (TK) för kortsiktiga kursrörelser, den var ner 4%.

Men vi har haft diverse ytterligare positiva nyheter för GLNG som förr eller senare slår genom:
1. Fearnley rapporterade fortsatt stigande om än inte dramatiskt spot LNG så här i slutet av september månad. Första gången jag såg en notering på 100k från de stora källorna. Fearnley har det på den större mer likvida "East of Suez" medans man har 90k på west of suez. TC 1 year upp 2k till 86k.
2. Den andra positiva är Brent på 82.4 usd. Som ni vet så är GLNG ett indirekt play på Brent oljan där deras börsvärde på 2.8 miljarder usd ska ställas mot
"Consistent with previous advice, the project in Cameroon is expected to deliver an EBITDA for Golar in the first full year of operation, based on the utilisation of 2 of the available 4 liquefaction trains, in the range of $170 million to $300 million, with a flexible tolling structure which correlates to Brent crude oil prices ranging from a floor of $60/bbl to a cap of $102/bbl. The Tolling Agreement also includes a tariff for a 3 train operation in case additional gas volumes can be processed or production advanced. Full production by 3 trains will increase the EBITDA to between $240 million and $430 million corresponding to the same range of Brent crude oil prices."

Lite förenklat kan man säga att varje dolar över 60 usd Brent blir en bonus på 3 musd (utbetalt månadsvis baserat på snittet 3 månader före) när Hilli kör 2 av fyra trains dvs 50% kapacitet. Logiken säger att Perenco kommer utnyttja sin option i närtid att gå till ett tredje train (75% kapacitet av Hilli) vilket då ökar siffran till ca 4.5 musd per dollar över Brent60.

Denna oljebonus följer inte med neddroppningar av Trains (produktionsenheter där Hilli alltså har 4 st idag 100% produktionsklara om kund kan leverera gas) till GMLP (dotterbolaget som köpt ett Train av GLNG så här långt). Idag ligger alltså årstakten på 3 x (82-60) = 66 musd (65 cent per aktie) med potential att öka till 99 musd (nära 1 dollar/aktie) om/när T3 går igång. Vid max oljepris Brent 102 (för optimisten) och T3 (men inte T4) igång så pratar vi 189 musd eller ca 1.80 usd per aktie.

Jag hittade denna utmärkta sammanfattning som beskriver några framtida triggers för GLNG:

Catalyst #1 - Profit sharing on Cameroon FLNG (Trains 1 & 2)
The Hilli Episeyo reached commercial acceptance in June. The contracted revenue for the first 50% of capacity should generate about $164
million of EBITDA, half of which should accrue to GLNG and the other half should go to GMLP. Also, the contract on the first two trains
includes a floating toll with a floor of $60/barrel on Brent oil and a ceiling of $102. For every $1 move in crude above $60, Golar’s cash flow
and earnings rise $3 million per year. With oil prices around $75/bbl and an 8% discount rate, we estimate the first two trains on the Hilli
should be an additional $3-$4 per share in value to GLNG shares.
Catalyst #2 - Cameroon FLNG Expansion (Train 3)
Only half of the Hilli’s capacity has employment. However, Perenco has gas in place to utilize Train 3. We estimate this could add $50-$70
million of additional cash flow with no incremental capex for Golar. Given high LNG prices, we believe Perenco is likely to be motivated
to begin monetizing gas reserves as soon as possible. However, it takes time to procure offtake, so we believe there may be some less
than formal arrangement whereby Golar and Perenco cooperate to sell gas rather than pursuing the traditional long-term offtake and tolling
contract. We expect Train 3 cash flows to impact shares by an estimated $5-$8 per share.
Catalyst #3 - Cameroon FLNG Expansion (Train 4)
In order to get enough gas to Train 4, Perenco would need to invest in more upstream infrastructure. However with current LNG prices, and
the relatively small amount of capital needed to get that new gas to market with an FLNG vessel still in place, we believe Perenco will move
forward with that investment in 2019 or 2020. If Perenco chooses to not make that investment, GLNG should be able to find gas for the final
train in 2019 or 2020. We expect Train 4 cash flows to impact shares by an estimated $5-$8 per share.
Catalyst #4 - BP & Kosmos Tortue Field Project (1st FLNG Vessel)
The Tortue field offshore of Mauritania and Senegal is being jointly developed by BP and Kosmos. In April, BP and Kosmos announced a
Heads of Terms with GLNG to provide the first FLNG unit for the project. Assuming an FID by 2018, initial production would begin in late
2021. With an estimated $1.5 billion per FLNG unit, we estimate each vessel could earn $250-300 million per year. All the economics and
costs are GLNGs and, as such, we estimate the project could have an $8-$10 per share impact on GLNG shares.
Catalyst #5 - BP & Kosmos Tortue Field Project (FLNG Vessel 2/3/4)
The Tortue Field has at least 15 Tcf of gas which can support up to 10 mtpa of LNG production. With each FLNG vessel having roughly 2.5
mtpa of capacity, the project has the potential to add three additional FLNG vessels beyond the initial FLNG vessel announced in April-2018.
Assuming a $1.5 billion per FLNG unit, we estimate each vessel could earn $250-300 million per year. This would translate into roughly
$8-$10 per share per FLNG.
Catalyst #6 - Golar Power Projects
The Sergipe power project is proceeding according to plan with civil and earthworks complete. Full financing for the project came to a close
during the quarter. GE expects to commission the power plant in January-2020. As GLNG owns 25% of the power project and 50% of the
FSRU, annual EBITDA contribution is expected to be $105 million. We estimate this project should have an impact of $6-$8 per share.
Going forward, while developing power generation in remote developing economies is complicated, we believe Golar Power is well positioned
to win several potential FSRU projects over the next several years. Specifically, there is a strong potential for a second power station next to the Sergipe location which could leverage the same infrastructure and generate even higher returns. Assuming continued positive
developments, we believe each new Golar Power projects announcements could provide an impact of $6-$8 per share.
Catalyst #7 - Delfin FLNG in the Gulf of Mexico. GLNG is developing a project in the Gulf of Mexico with Delfin LNG for up to four FLNG
units. The project is designed for the second generation of FLNG project called Mark II. Ultimately Delfin could use four of the units capable
of producing 13 mtpa of LNG although it is scalable to that level. Delfin will need to secure long-term offtake agreements prior to making an
FID, but progress is being made to that end. Delfin has a MoU with China Gas Holdings for 3 mtpa or effectively a single FLNG unit if it can
be converted into a formal contract. We expect Delfin could make an FID between late-2018 and early-2019. The capital cost we estimate to
be $1.5 billion per FLNG unit or $6 billion collectively for Golar. While likely too early to speculate with too many variables, that’s our business
so we would expect a value of about $10/share per unit to GLNG (similar to Hilli) or $40/share collectively.
Catalyst #8 - Fortuna FLNG (Equatorial Guinea) FID Announcement
With the dissolving of OneLNG, project timing is a bit up in the air, however, there is still a 10-year offtake agreement with Gunvor to be
the buyer of all 2.2 MTPA from the FLNG. GLNG is likely going to look for a new partner for the project, and that will take time. In addition,
the Equatorial Guinean government gave Ophir until the end of 2018 to go FID on the project or they would lose their access to Block R.
Ultimately, the project financing is the issue and once management is able to connect with other partners in the project. At this point, we are
not attributing value in our sum-of-the-parts analysis, but we do not believe the project is dead by any means given the strong economics.
The FLNG conversion has an estimated cost of $1.5 billion with an additional $500 million needed for the upstream infrastructure. With the
previous deal economics, assuming a $6.00/mmbtu landed gas price, the FLNG project was estimated to generate about $560 million of
cash flow. After debt service, the old implied ROE was 27% and could have more than a $10/share impact depending on final economics.
Catalyst #9 - Long-Term Contracts on Existing FSRUs.
The Golar Tundra is being traded as an LNG carrier. There has been a recent surge of activity in the FSRU market in addition to whatever
Golar Power may be able to create organically. Additionally, the company is considering converting several conventional vessels (Golar
Celsius at GLNG and Golar Grand at GMLP), although the FSRU market is very competitive. Additionally, the Golar Spirit, held at GMLP
level, came off contract earlier than planned in June 2017 from Petrobras and has been laid up. Although not directly affecting Golar at the
parent level, the lower earnings contribution from the Golar Spirit should boost cash flows at GMLP strengthening distribution coverage.
However, due to the growing demand for LNG, especially from first-time importers which are likely to utilize smaller FSRUs, we believe
there should be a market for the vessel, albeit at lower rates than before. We believe a contract announcement of a contract would likely
provide a $1-$2 share impact.
Catalyst #10 - Long-Term Contracts on Existing LNG Carriers
Due to the low charter rate environment of recent years for LNG carriers, the majority of Golar's vessels are trading spot. However, given
recent improvements in market conditions, we believe the company could begin locking in vessels on contracts at closer to mid-cycle levels.
In addition, GLNG could be able to drop any vessel with a charter length of 5 years or more to GMLP should the partnershi

Golar är i mitt tycke i ett suveränt läge men det är ett mer komplicerat företag att förstå än exempelvis pure plays som Flex LNG, Frontline, Golden Ocean etc som Norge begåvat världen med... men i mitt tycke också en helt annan uppsida. Ni ser de enorma beloppen vi pratar i långa kassaflöden från enbart Hilli vs börsvärde...

Ni känner till att ett FID med BP/Kosmos bör komma i slutet på året... men många verkar inte ha en aning om omfattningen som är möjlig med BP/Kosmos..

Kosmos-BP partnership aligned to deliver low cost, highly competitive gas project
on accelerated pace with room for expansion:
- 15 Tcf gas resource
– World scale gas field underpins leading LNGproject
– 10 mmtpa project would be expected to generate
cash flow of ~$350 MM/yr net to Kosmos over~20+ year plateau
Innovative development solution
– BP-led phased development expected to FID around end 2018 and deliver first gas in late 2021
– 2.5 mmtpa first phase development establishes infrastructure for future expansion
– First phase delivers early cash flow and substantially funded by BP carry
• Cost competitive with Atlantic Margin LNG
– First phase using cost competitive, industry-led liquefaction solution
– High-quality reservoir and resource density leads to fewer wells and more efficient development
– Future expansion planned, providing economies of scale

Dvs detta är inte ett fartyg som är potentialen för Golar. Det är 4 st av Hilli storlek.. och med nuvarande medvind i LNG fraktraterna på Golars stora sådana flotta och oljebonusen så är man plötsligt i en helt ny finansiell situation. Man är finansiellt starka.. inte minst när låntagarna väntas ge minst samma belåningsgrad (dvs 80%) som Hilli när operatören heter BP och inte Ophir.. så prislappen på dryga miljarden usd för ett fartyg är högst överkomlig för GLNG idag. Med all säkerhet så även om BP/Kosmos skulle få för sig att utnyttja optionen på det andra fartyget direkt med. Vikten av finansiella medvinden Golar har idag från LNG frakt, Hilli oljebonus och för den delen drop till GMLP kan inte överskattas vilket är precis varför jag höjer på ögonbrynen över tajmingen på agerandet från Skagen fonder under sommaren så mycket... men låt oss återkomma till det senare i höst när vi förhoppningsvis har mer facit på agerandet.

Man kan absolut varna för att jag tar ut för mycket i förskott här så låt oss diskutera detta med Kosmos/BP lite mer. Ni ser vad Kosmos (BP) säger ovan och ni vet vad som är offentligt. Så låt oss titta på deras val:
Val 1: Golar som levererat Hilli on budget billigast FLNG kapacitet världen skådat och som fungerat utan anmärkning nu i flera månader
Val 2: Välja en Golar kopia som inte leverat någonting och inte kommer göra det kommande år.
Val 3: Göra som Shell Prelude. (Låt oss titta på det)
The initial estimate of cost was US$10.8-12.6 billion back in 2012; Shell (with partners Inpex, Kogas and CPC) in 2014 admitted the costs were rising, putting the price at US$3.5 billion per mtpa capacity – which means the upper range of costs are US$17.85 billion. Ja inte helt rättvis jämförelse men Hilli är alltså 2.4 mtpa capacity för 1.1 miljard usd. (Jämförelsen haltar pga förmågan att hantera bl.a LPG och flytande produkt vilket Tortue lägger på separat fartyg, FPSO) men ni ser...

Det sjuka är att den som börjar gräva snabbt inser att Tortue är den mindre delen av vad Kosmos har i pipeline där de behöver FLNG:

Low-cost, competitively positioned Tortue gas project provides next phase of growth
– 15 Tcf resource base supports development of 10 mmtpa scheme
– On plateau, 10 mmtpa scheme would be expected to generate substantial, steady long-term annual cash flow
– $533mm BP development carry funds substantial portion of Kosmos share of initial phase (2.5 mmtpa),
establishing infrastructure for full development and providing early cash flow
– 20 Tcf discovered resource base in Yakaar/Teranga adds potential for second hub

Japp... Tortue 1 skepp initial phase 2.5 mmtpa, 4 skepp ger 10 mmtpa i 20 år
Yakaar/Teranga världens största gasfynd 2017 är 20 TCF vs Tortue 15 TCF.

Så... jag har inget emot Skagen Fonder... jag bara undrar... vad sysslar deras research avdelning med :-) ?

Huvudsaklig källa: http://www.kosmosenergy.com/pdfs/KosmosEnergy-InvestorPresentationJune2018vFINAL.pdf

Mycket intressant video om läget i Kina inför vintern: https://www.woodmac.com/our-expertise/capabilities/gas-and-lng/gastech/Will-China-run-short-of-gas-again-this-winter