Oil prices above USD 100/bbl


Preconditions for an oil supply shock are building, which could send oil prices above USD 100/bbl. Oil supply shock. As we look back on the run-up to the financial crisis, we also shouldn’t forget that the global economy was already creaking under the weight of USD 150/bbl oil. Since then, the development of US shale fields, and improved energy efficiency have reduced the risk of future oil price shocks. The world economy needs 7% less oil to produce the same amount of GDP as it did in 2007 and OECD countries need 12% less. But we think preconditions for a supply shock are building. US sanctions on Iran take effect in November, US inventories are low, Venezuela is in crisis, and production in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf Cooperation Council countries is close to capacity.
In our base case we expect a tight market to lead Brent crude oil prices to rise to USD 85/bbl over the next six months. Further upside could come from a sharper-than-expected drop in Iranian exports, or Iranian retaliatory measures against the US sanctions.
Source: UBS
Date: 20.Sept. 2018
omans
27.09.2018 kl 17:11 1039

100 er ikke all verden sjokk, der var den jo allerede for mange år tilbake. På den tiden begynte man å lure på hva som var galt når oljepris kom ned i 2-sifret tallbeløp.
Var ti'er det....
auxe
27.09.2018 kl 18:01 945

Samenling med USD$ så kan det hende det er ett sjokk.