Det brukar se ut så att om raterna fortsätter eller är stabila så kommer kursen gå upp igen. Just nu är det vinsthemtagning som det alltid varit i bw och avance. Det kan gå ner imorn med men bra rater imorn med så går det upp.

Kan vi håpe på kursoppgang imorgen?
https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shipping/2020/12/01/7593928/vlgc-ratene-opp-40-prosent-pa-en-uke
Pluss artikkel.

Det er feil at Voleon har økt short posisjonen. Sist de økte sin short posisjon var fredag 27 november, ref finanstilsynet’s short register. Om de har økt i dag får vi først vite i morgen onsdag kl.15.30

Ja ja. Hannisdahl melder kveld at Baltic fremdeles ligger på 82k$/dag.

Jeg vet ikke om andre synes det er så festlig det Voleon holder på med. Går det an å bli kvitt slike plageånder?
Jeg har vel skrevet det tidligere at jeg er såpass gammel at jeg husker hva børs engang var. Det er trist, for de fleste av oss, at det har blitt som det har blitt.

Det er bare å kjøpe mer da! Herregud, enn å sitte og klage på «kapitalkjeltringer» på et børsforum.

Det er bare Voleon som leker litt med aksjen. Shorten er økt betydelig siden fredag i forrige uke. Ratene har ikke vært så høye siden 2015. Hold på aksjene folkens.

Her fyker ratene til værs og Dorian følger etter. Hvilken sykdom er det OSE lider av? Eller hvilke kapitalkjelringer er det som får holde på?

Haha, for noe ræl. Aksjen er jo ned 6% i dag, til tross for feberfantasiene deres her inne.

Tipper den er nærmere 20 kr enn 50 kr i begynnelsen av januar for å si det sånn.

Takker

1 skip til leveres i år. 21 neste år. 11 skip i 2022 og 5 skip foreløpig i 2023

Det er 27 skip som er 25 år eller eldre og som derved er gode kandidater for scrapping. Det er vanskelig å slutte ut VLGC'er over 25 år pga strenge regler hos befraktere og terminaler. Men i det markedet vi nå har sluker de alt rått bare de får det billig nok.

I 2015 og 2016 ble det levert henholdsvis 36 og 43 skip. Det var disse leveransene som sendte VLGC markedet i knestående.

Drowsy. I denne Hegnarske manipleringståke er du virkelig ei fyrlykt. Takk for innleggene du skriver.

Selvom det er drydokking på mange skip i 2021 er det også en ganske solid tilvekst. Hvordan tror du dette utvikler seg etterhvert? Øker fraktbehovet i takt med tilveksten av båter? Det er vel det vi ser for oss. Har du også tall på hvor mange nye skip som er forventet i 22 og 23??

Ser jeg skrev litt klønete, mente at selskapet har 8 skip bygget i 2015 + 5 skip bygget i 2008/2009 + 2 nybygg 2021/2022 = Sum 15 skip.

Ikke helt riktig - hadde 14, solgte to, men en av dem med leaseback på CBE 21,5K. I Q4 vil riktignok ett av skipene være mye off-hire så da blir det 12 i full aktivitet i dette kvartalet. Så er det ca. 30K fixed rate for i underkant av 30 prosent av flåten i 2021, mens det i Q4 er fixed rate på 31K for ca 30 prosent av flåten såvidt jeg husker.

Q4 blir det god inntjenting på - husker ikke i farten, men skal sjekke opp. Et sted mellom 2,5 og 4 kr tror jeg, mens Q1 kommer til å bli massivt...

Vi kan snakke teknisk som noen her gjør, vi kan hause med altfor enkel beregning, men rent fundamentalt blir Avance en pengemaskin som Hansson ville kalt det i Q4 og Q1. Sånn er det bare. Så kan man ha strategier på å treffe bunner med inngang og topper med short eller ha et litt roligere liv og ta imot utbytte i gode tider og akkumulere i dårlige. Denne aksjen faller definitivt ikke til lavere kurser før noe ekstremt skjer i verden eller før i mars/april 2021.

Når det er sagt er det lite som tilsier at det kommer til å skje. Det blir massiv drydocking på LPG-flåten i 2021 og Avance er nesten helt ferdig med den prosessen. Endelig kan de nyte godt av ratene, selv om de helt sikkert nå angrer på at de «hedget» seg med ca 1/4 av flåten med inntjening på ca 9K pr dag.

13 skip du glemte Iris Glory

Selskapet har vel 12 skip og 2 til på vei.

Thetis Glory 83,700 Daewoo, South Korea 2008 100%
Venus Glory 83,700 Daewoo, South Korea 2008 100%
Providence 83,800 Daewoo, South Korea 2008 100%
Promise 83,800 Daewoo, South Korea 2009 100%
Mistral 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
Monsoon 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
Breeze 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
Passat 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
Sirocco 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
Levant 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
Chinook 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
Pampero 83,000 Jiangnan, China 2015 100%
NB Dual-Fuel TBN 91,000 Daewoo, South Korea 2021 100%
NB Dual-Fuel TBN 91,000 Daewoo, South Korea 2022 100%

Snusfall,
Du må også ta hensyn til at Avance nå har ca. dobbelt så mange skip som i 2015. Året 2015 fikk Avance levert 8 skip. De har også to nybygg som leveres i 2021 og 2022.
Selskapets eldste skip ble solgt i 2020. Inklusive nybygg har selskapet 8 skip, hvorav de 5 eldste er bygget i 2008 og 2009.

Hurra, 72 next ?

Huff huff, 32-34 next?

Rater på 70.90.000 i lavsesong er helt strålende! ;)

Jo mer meglere hausser jo større sjanse er det for å kjøpe på topp, så enkelt er det.
Noen av de nærmeste futurene var godt ned i går, ratetoppen er her

Hvorfor skrives dette fremdeles. Det er dobbelt så mange aksjer nå som i 2015... Dessuten er store andeler av flåten på faste rater ut kvartalet. Det var vell rundt 30.000$ om jeg husker riktig.

"The LPG segment has been on a healthier footing since late July but last week’s jump in activity levels boosted VLGC spot rates to their highest levels since 2015,"

Gjennom hele 2015 lå vel kursen på mellom 100 og 150. Om vi ikke skal så høyt så skal vi nok opp og teste toppen fra sist vinter.

Koselig lesning fra TW:

VLGC spot rates hit five-year high on US exports to Asia

LPG carrier owners' stock prices jump as US exports drive booming market!
Analysts have put a positive spin on the VLGC sector as global delays sparked a spike in rates to their highest level in five years.
Supply-side disruptions including delays in the Panama Canal and longer discharge times in Asia are proving to be a "real saviour" for owners, Fearnley Securities said.

Asian spot rates assessed by the Baltic Exchange rose a whopping $14.50 per tonne on Thursday, leaving time charter equivalent earnings at $75,000 per day, against $63,000 per day on Wednesday and up from a slump to $10,000 per day earlier this year.
By Friday the figure was $90.14 per tonne, the equivalent of $88,882 per day, up 64% month on month and the best rate since 2015.

Share prices jump!
LPG carrier owners saw the biggest jump in share prices last week as a result, gaining 17% as a group.
"The LPG segment has been on a healthier footing since late July but last week’s jump in activity levels boosted VLGC spot rates to their highest levels since 2015," said Norwegian investment bank Clarksons Platou Securities.

Charterers were fixing a significant number of ships out of the US Gulf destined for the Far East, analysts said.
Rates on the US Gulf to China route jumped from $110 per tonne to $140 per tonne last week, while Arabian Gulf to Japan rates rose from $64 per tonne to $87.50 per tonne.

"This spike comes following a four-month period of strong and steady rates at between $40,000 per day and $50,000 per day," the investment bank said.

Seasonal weakness overcome!
The winter months tend to be seasonally softer than other parts of the year as arbitrages diminish.
This is indeed the case currently, as naphtha spot prices in both Europe and Asia stay below those of propane, making naphtha, which is shipped on product tankers, a more favoured feedstock, Clarksons Platou said.

Propane is now $60 per tonne more expensive in the Far East and $10 more in Europe.
"However the price of propane between regions remains favourable for VLGCs, with US Gulf prices currently hovering around $290 per tonne as opposed to $380 per tonne in Europe and $450 in the Far East," analysts Frode Morkedal and Omar Nokta said.

"These wide differentials have prompted increased demand for US Gulf cargoes as well as an overall increase in trading activity. Charterers have become more active at a time of limited capacity due to heavy drydockings, disruptions at various ports as well as delays at the Panama Canal."
Ships are taking 10 days longer than usual to transit the Panama Canal.

"Although trading economics have improved, the key driver of rates are major fleet inefficiencies aiding the supply and demand balance," Fearnley analysts Espen Landmark Fjermestad, Peder Nicolai Jarlsby and Ulrik Mannhart said.
"In our view there is little suggesting these factors will abate any time soon, providing some visibility into the early stages of 2021."

There has also been continued re-routing of vessels, as well as the largest dry dock-related off-hire in VLGC history, Fearnley said.
Looking at 2021, the investment bank views the main risk as US production.

Owners upgraded!
But the fact that 71 vessels, about a quarter of the VLGC fleet, are scheduled for dry-dockings should support the tonnage balance, it said.
Fearnley sees rates of $45,000 per day next year, up from its previous forecast of $27,000. It has upgraded Avance Gas and Dorian LPG to "buy", and also has BW LPG and Navigator Holdings as "buys".

Recent production data shows an improved picture for US LPG production, which has risen from lows last spring.
Growth in October and November stands at just above 4% year on year, with zero growth between April and September.
Jefferies analyst Randy Giveans said rates are recovering after a tough hurricane season.

US numbers encouraging!
US exports of propane and propylene peaked in April at 1.7m barrels per day (bpd), but fell to a low of 700,000 bpd by mid-July.
Exports began to recover during August, but were disrupted in September and October by Hurricane Laura and other weather events in the US Gulf.

"We believe US exports will increase now that hurricane season is over, as several US and international LPG export terminal facilities start-up/ramp-up as LPG demand increases in the coming quarters," Giveans added.

Mye blandet drops på futurene, er på toppen rate messig nå, må bare regne med at aksjen faller.

Shorten har igjen økt

https://shortnordic.com/history_player.php?player=VOLEON%20CAPITAL%20MANAGEMENT%20LP&land=norway

Tøft gjort. Kunne gått begge veier det der.

Poten 80.209

Det er nok bedre å lytte til deg, du kan dine saker.
Shorten er dekt, og det tok 5 timer å tjene 2,8kr aksjen.

Takk for pengene.

Ja, ta en kikk på Poten i kveld! Kan det være sant?

Ja, en som sier han sitter short, og sier huff og huff, bør man høre på.
Eller kanskje ikke ? :)
Vi andre får bare nyte en fantastisk inntjening, kursstigning og fremtidige utbytter.

Haha, du elsker å «provosere» folk, men hva definerer du «topp» til å være? Hvilket tidsrom opererer du i? Dag til dag, uke til uke, mnd til mnd, år til år? Når du bruker RSI kan man ikke si dette har betydning for lange investeringer. Så når du nå sier topp - tenker du topp denne uka eller topp frem til nyttår f.eks? Bare nysgjerrig. Fint å få innblikk i et genis tankegang...og mener ikke det ironisk, jeg lytter mer enn gjerne til deg og dine tanker.

Huff huff, Rsi 90 , megler hausset, overkjøpt så det holder.
Mange gikk i fellen å kjøpte på topp.

Kan dere sende denne umder 40 snart?

Må innrømme at ditt innlegg på rater idag kodenavn bidro til flere aksjer i portefølja

Pareto Weekly Shipping: "The VLGC market is now in a rare, dream-like situation."

We are heading into the final month of a strange 2020, with conflicting nearterm outlooks as uncertainties linger on. The VLGC-market is on fire and 2021-estimates look set to be revised sharply upwards, while the opposite is seen for the tanker names. Still, ordering activity has been extremely low this year, and this coupled with an ever-ageing fleet in an environment-focused worldmean that the tide will turn next year. The VLGC FFA-curve was the most interesting shipping-development last week, and we expect another push upwards there – much like what we saw in 2019.
VLGC-curve with even bigger bounce on Friday…
The VLGC market is now in a rare, dream-like situation. The ideal combination of ample US inventories and production (leaving US prices at low levels), strong Asian demand (both retail and industrial/cracker demand) and muted OPEC (Middle East) production has boosted tonne-miles. At the same time, fleet inefficiencies are high, with Panama-congestion and a heavy drydockingschedule as the 2015/16 avalanche of ships are due for their first survey. To us, it looks like this situation which now has led spot rates to pop towards USD 80,000/day is likely to persist for some time – and the FFA-market is now grasping this reality. The curve is still in contango into December, but more interestingly Q1 increased some USD 15/ton last week – which means near USD 70,000/day. Over the past three weeks, the Q1 curve is up by ~USD 30,000/day – effectively mirroring the movement we have seen in the spot market. For 2021 as a whole, the FFA-market is now expecting USD 45,000/day – up from around USD 30,000/day a few weeks ago.
… estimates coming up and vessel values are being confirmed Consequently, we expect another significant positive estimate revision for the space. Preliminary we would expect something in the area of USD 1.4 for BW LPG (current est. 1.0 vs. consensus at 0.6), 1.2 for Avance (current 0.9 vs. consensus at 0.56) and USD 2.3 for Dorian (fiscal ’22, current est 2.0 consensus at 1.4). This morning, BW LPG also announced that two vessels have been sold, of which one is to its India JV – the other to an unaffiliated company. This latter vessel, built in 2006 will give a book gain of USD 4m and liquidity effect of USD 36m. The price is not directly disclosed, but BW did see the value of a 15Y old at USD 41m in its Q3 release, meaning that a ’06-vessel should be around USD 44m. This would also rhyme well with the reported book value gain – and be well above our NAV-quote of USD 38m. So, we now have companies that trade at 25- 30% discount to book values that are too low – while generating a return on equity of near 20% for the second consecutive year while forward estimates are coming sharply up. We continue to like the VLGC names against that backdrop.

Dream-scenario for the VLGCs

We are heading into the final month of a strange 2020, with conflicting nearterm outlooks as uncertainties linger on. The VLGC-market is on fire and 2021-
estimates look set to be revised sharply upwards, while the opposite is seen
for the tanker names. Still, ordering activity has been extremely low this year,
and this coupled with an ever-ageing fleet in an environment-focused world
mean that the tide will turn next year. The VLGC FFA-curve was the most
interesting shipping-development last week, and we expect another push
upwards there – much like what we saw in 2019.
VLGC-curve with even bigger bounce on Friday…
The VLGC market is now in a rare, dream-like situation. The ideal combination
of ample US inventories and production (leaving US prices at low levels), strong
Asian demand (both retail and industrial/cracker demand) and muted OPEC
(Middle East) production has boosted tonne-miles. At the same time, fleet
inefficiencies are high, with Panama-congestion and a heavy drydockingschedule as the 2015/16 avalanche of ships are due for their first survey. To us,
it looks like this situation which now has led spot rates to pop towards USD
80,000/day is likely to persist for some time – and the FFA-market is now
grasping this reality. The curve is still in contango into December, but more
interestingly Q1 increased some USD 15/ton last week – which means near USD
70,000/day. Over the past three weeks, the Q1 curve is up by ~USD 30,000/day
– effectively mirroring the movement we have seen in the spot market. For 2021
as a whole, the FFA-market is now expecting USD 45,000/day – up from around
USD 30,000/day a few weeks ago.
… estimates coming up and vessel values are being confirmed
Consequently, we expect another significant positive estimate revision for the
space. Preliminary we would expect something in the area of USD 1.4 for BW
LPG (current est. 1.0 vs. consensus at 0.6), 1.2 for Avance (current 0.9 vs.
consensus at 0.56) and USD 2.3 for Dorian (fiscal ’22, current est 2.0 consensus
at 1.4). This morning, BW LPG also announced that two vessels have been sold,
of which one is to its India JV – the other to an unaffiliated company. This latter
vessel, built in 2006 will give a book gain of USD 4m and liquidity effect of USD
36m. The price is not directly disclosed, but BW did see the value of a 15Y old at
USD 41m in its Q3 release, meaning that a ’06-vessel should be around USD 44m.
This would also rhyme well with the reported book value gain – and be well
above our NAV-quote of USD 38m. So, we now have companies that trade at 25-
30% discount to book values that are too low – while generating a return on
equity of near 20% for the second consecutive year while forward estimates are
coming sharply up. We continue to like the VLGC names against that backdrop.
Pareto Weekly Shipping

Med dagens rater er dette tilfelle.
Så kan alle mene og regne på hva fasit blir med andre rater.

"har nå en P/E på under 1, dvs. at selskapet tjener inn hele selskapsverdien på under 1 år."
Greit å være optimist, men denne er for drøy. Da må isåfall ratene holde seg på 100 i ett år. Det skal godt gjøres.

Ved årsskiftet var kursen 57.-
Nå er kursen 41.-
Den gang var aksjen billig på alle multipler.
Siden den gang har selskapet tjent inn flere kroner pr. aksje.
Siden den gang er det avklart at 2021 blir et ganske bra år. i motsetning til det man trodde i januar.
Siden den gang har ratene steget.
Aksjen er billigere enn noen gang, og har nå en P/E på under 1, dvs. at selskapet tjener inn hele selskapsverdien på under 1 år.

I mitt hode er aksjen nå griseblillig.
Og det ser ut til at mange mener det samme. På en rød dag på OSE, med fall i oljeprisen, tørker selgersiden ut når kursen faller noen tiøringer.
Det er et godt tegn.

Hvis denne aksjen ikke går til 60-70 kroner snart, er det noe galt med folks regneferdigheter.