Godt de bare tror, tipper, venter, ser for seg, antar og aldri vet.
Helgarderinger er profitabelt.

Det ventes stort fall i spotprisen for neste uke, mn markedet retter tydeligvis blikket lengre fram og løfter kursene likevel.Her er Pareto sin oppdatering fra i dag:
"Seafood - Salmon price NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.1) next week (-6)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 58/kg, this is NOK 12.4/kg lower (-18%) than the corresponding week last year, and NOK 6/kg (-9%) lower than level we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.1/kg (-18% YoY). We include a Q2 price of NOK 67/kg (EUR 6.9/kg) in our estimates. Export volumes from Norway were 20,831 tonnes last week, which is +11% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 5%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -7%."

Kunstig økning - Hæ!

Hva blir kommentareb når spotprisen holder på tross av varmt vær samt sukk og stønn fra eksportørene?

Her er Pareto sin ioppdatering, og den bør stemme ettersom den kom nå nyss:

"
Seafood - Salmon price NOK 79/kg (EUR 8.3) next week (unch.)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 79/kg, this is NOK 7.6/kg higher (+11%) than the corresponding week last year, and at the same level that we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 8.3/kg (+15% YoY). We include a Q2 price of NOK 67/kg (EUR 6.9/kg) in our estimates. Export volumes from Norway were 20,371 tonnes last week, which is +1% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 5%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -8%."

Kun fire slaktedager fire uker på rad, derfor blir volum lavere og dermed prisen høyere, mao. en kunstig økning.

Sterk - sterkere - når blir spotpisen sterkest?

Seafood - Salmon price NOK 77/kg (EUR 7.9) next week (+3/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 77/kg, this is NOK 6.5/kg higher (+9%) than the corresponding week last year, and NOK 3/kg higher than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 7.9/kg (+6% YoY). We include a Q2 price of NOK 62/kg (EUR 6.5/kg) in our estimates. Fresh export volumes were 14,510 tonnes last week, which is +5% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 4%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -9%.

Spotprisen overrasker positivt - igjen!

"Salmon price NOK 69/kg (EUR 7.1) next week (+3/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 69/kg, this is NOK 3.7/kg higher (+6%) than the corresponding week last year, and NOK 3/kg higher than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 7.1/kg (+3% YoY). We include a Q2 price of NOK 62/kg (EUR 6.5/kg) in our estimates. Export volumes were 20,888 tonnes last week, which is +5% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 4%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -10%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 67.1/kg (PAS est. NOK 67/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 66/kg (prev. est. NOK 65/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 69/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 62.3/kg (+0.3/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 59.5/kg (+1.5/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 13.1/kg fillets (+0.5/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.3/kg (+0.1/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets were EUR 20.7/kg in week 15, +7% from the prior week and +14% from corresponding week last year.

Trout price was NOK 64.2/kg last week, NOK +0.2/kg (+1%) from the week before, NOK -11.6/kg (-15%) from corresponding week last year.

Cod price was NOK 33.7/kg last week, NOK +2.3/kg (+7%) from the week before, NOK +6.3/kg (+23%) from corresponding week last year.

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.1/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8/kg) Actual Q1 NOK 59.4/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 62/kg (EUR 6.5/kg) QTD NOK 71.4/kg (EUR 7.4/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 6.0/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)"

Spotprisen er fortsatt sterk!

"Salmon price NOK 65/kg (EUR 6.8) next week (-2/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 65/kg, this is NOK 3.0/kg higher (+5%) than the corresponding week last year, and NOK -2/kg lower than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.8/kg (+2% YoY). We expect a Q2 price of NOK 62/kg (EUR 6.5/kg). Export volumes were 21,602 tonnes last week, which is +14% higher than the corresponding week last year (two weeks after Easter). Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 3%, while the YTD export price
in EUR is down -11%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 68.4/kg (PAS est. NOK 69/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 67/kg (prev. est. NOK 68/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 65/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 62.1/kg (+2.3/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 58.0/kg (+1.5/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 12.6/kg fillets (+0.3/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.2/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets were EUR 20.7/kg last week, +7% from the prior week and +14% from corresponding week last year

Trout price was NOK 64.0/kg last week, NOK -1.1/kg (-2%) from the week before, NOK -12.2/kg (-16%) from corresponding week last year

Cod price was NOK 31.4/kg last week, NOK -3.7/kg (-12%) from the week before, NOK +1.4/kg (+5%) from corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.1/kg)
o Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)  Actual Q1 NOK 59.4/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
o Q2 18e: NOK 62/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)
o Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
o Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 6.0/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)"

Fortsatt gode spotpriser

"Salmon price NOK 68/kg (EUR 7.1) next week (-1/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 68/kg, this is NOK 3.7/kg higher than the corresponding week last year (+6%), and NOK -1/kg lower than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 7.1/kg (+3% YoY). We expect a Q2 price of NOK 62/kg (EUR 6.5/kg). Export volumes were 19,109 tonnes last week, which is -28% lower than the corresponding week last year. However, compared to the week after Easter last year (only four days of harvesting), volumes are down only -4% YoY. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 2%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -11%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 74.3/kg (PAS est. NOK 73/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 69/kg (prev. est. NOK 69/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 68/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 59.8/kg (+0.7/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.5/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 12.3/kg fillets (+0.2/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.3/kg (unch. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets were EUR 19.3/kg last week, +31% from the prior week and +3% from corresponding week last year

Trout price was NOK 65.0/kg last week, NOK +0.1/kg (+1%) from the week before, NOK -7.4/kg (-11%) from corresponding week last year

Cod price was NOK 35.1/kg last week, NOK +6.3/kg (+22%) from the week before, NOK +6.2/kg (+21%) from corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.1/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)  Actual Q1 NOK 59.4/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 62/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 6.0/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)"

Pareto venter fortsatt sterke spotpriser:

"Salmon price NOK 71/kg (EUR 7.4) next week (-3/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 71/kg, this is NOK 9.3/kg higher than the corresponding week last year (+15%), and NOK -3/kg lower than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 7.4/kg (+4% YoY). The volume weighted Q1 price was NOK 59.4/kg vs our initial Q1 estimate of NOK 55/kg. Export volumes were 15,849 tonnes last week, which is -2% lower than Easter week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 6%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -13%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 76.0/kg (PAS est. NOK 76/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 74/kg (prev. est. NOK 74/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 71/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 59.1/kg (unch. from last week)
2019: NOK 56.5/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 12.1/kg fillets (+0.1/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.3/kg (unch. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets were EUR 14.7/kg last week, -23% from the week before and -26% from corresponding week last year

Trout price last week quoted at NOK 64.9/kg, NOK +2/kg from the week before and NOK -5.2/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price last week quoted at NOK 28.8/kg, NOK -2.3/kg from the week before and NOK +0.5/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  Actual Q1 NOK 59.4/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Litt tidlig å anslå spotprisen for neste uke, men Pareto tar sjansen og venter fortsatt spotprisen godt over 70

"Salmon price NOK 74/kg (EUR 7.7) next week (-2)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 74/kg, this is NOK 12.3/kg higher than the corresponding week last year (+20%), and NOK -2/kg lower than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 7.7/kg (+15% YoY). An Easter week price of NOK 76/kg is NOK 12.3/kg higher (+19%) than Easter last year. Our indications for the remainder of the quarter suggest a Q1 price of NOK 59.6/kg vs our initial Q1 estimate of NOK 55/kg. Fresh export volumes were 19,138 tonnes last week, which is 17% higher than the corresponding week last year. However, compared to week 14 last year (a week before Easter), fresh export volumes are up only 3%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 65.0/kg (PAS est. NOK 66/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 76/kg (prev. est. NOK 76/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 74/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 59.1/kg (+0.5/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.5/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 12.0/kg fillets (+0.3/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.3/kg (+0.1/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets were EUR 18.2/kg in week 11, +15% from the week before and -7% from corresponding week last year

Trout price not updated this week. Last week quoted at NOK 62.7/kg, NOK -2.6/kg from the week before and NOK -8.4/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price not updated this week. Last week quoted at NOK 30.7/kg, NOK -1.4/kg from the week before and NOK -0.4/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e 2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 58.3/kg (EUR 6.1/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Spotprisen denne uke ser iht Pareto ut til å bli 3 - 4 kroner høyere denne uka enn det eksportørene signaliserte sist fredag - og Pareto venter videre stigning i spotprisen neste uke.
Jeg synes det er sterkt at prisen denne uka og neste holder seg så høyt - gitt det høye slaktevolumet.

"Salmon price/kg NOK 66 (EUR 7.0) next week (+2/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 66/kg, this is NOK 3.8/kg higher than the corresponding week last year (+6%), and NOK 2/kg higher than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 7.0/kg (+3% YoY). Our indications for the remainder of the quarter suggest a Q1 price of NOK 58.8/kg vs our initial Q1 estimate of NOK 55/kg. Export volumes were 24,020 tonnes last week, which is 8% higher than the corresponding week last year. However, compared to week 13 last year (two weeks before Easter), export volumes are down 2%. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 9% and export prices in EUR are down -16%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 68.4/kg (PAS est. NOK 70/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 64/kg (prev. est. NOK 61/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 66/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 58.7/kg (+0.1/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.5/kg (+0.3/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11.7/kg fillets (+0.1/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.2/kg (+0.4/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets were EUR 15.8/kg in week 10, -3% from the week before and -19% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 62.7/kg last week, NOK -2.6/kg from the week before and NOK -8.4/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 30.7/kg last week, NOK -1.4/kg from previous week and NOK -0.4/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 57.7/kg (EUR 6.0/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Ned, men ikke mye ned.
Holder spot over 65 neste uke er det sterkt!

"Salmon price NOK 66 (EUR 6.9) next week (-5/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 66/kg, this is NOK 3.1/kg higher than the corresponding week last year (+5%), and NOK 5/kg lower than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.9/kg (+1% YoY). The sharp decline WoW is due to abnormal high prices at the beginning of the week and higher harvest volumes putting pressure on prices throughout this week and into next week. Our indications for the coming remainder of the quarter suggest a Q1 price of NOK 59/kg vs our Q1 estimate of NOK 55/kg. Export volumes were 21,677 tonnes last week, which is 1% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 11% and export prices in EUR are down -18%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 69.2/kg (PAS est. NOK 71/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 71/kg (prev. est. NOK 71/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 66/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 58.6/kg (+0.9 from last week)
2019: NOK 56.2/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11.6/kg fillets (unch. from last week)
Seattle: USD 7.8/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 16.3/kg last week, -15% from the week before and -25% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 65.3/kg last week, +3.8/kg from the week before and NOK -6.5/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 32.1/kg last week, +0.5/kg from the week before and +2.0/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg) o
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 57.9/kg (EUR 6.0/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Er det gevinst sikring i dag eller ?

Ny anbefaling i dag

Då kan vel GSF snart begynne å slakte på storsmolten i Finnmark. Kortere tid i havet og mindre sykdom fører ble til at kvantum og lønnsomhet øker.

Torsdagsoppdateringen fra Pareto kommer på fredag som følge av at analytikeren har vært opptatt med sjømatkonferansen i Bergen.
Sterkt at 70-nivået ventes også kommende uke!

"Salmon price NOK 70 (EUR 7.3) next week (-1/kg)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 70/kg, this is NOK 13.4/kg higher than the corresponding week last year (+24%), and NOK 1/kg lower than the level we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 7.3/kg (+19% YoY). Export volumes were 20,902 tonnes last week, which is 5% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 9% and export prices in EUR are down -20%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 65.6/kg (PAS est. NOK 66/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 71/kg (prev. est. NOK 70/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 70/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 57.7/kg (+1.4 from last week)
2019: NOK 56.2/kg (+0.1 from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11.6/kg fillets (-0.2/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 7.9/kg (unch. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 16.3/kg last week, -15% from the week before and -25% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 61.6/kg last week, -1.1/kg from the week before and NOK -9.9/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 31.6/kg last week, -0.8/kg from the week before and +2.8/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg) o
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 56.8/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Ingen oppdatering idag?

"Det går bedre og bedre dag for dag"

"Salmon price NOK 66 (EUR 6.9) next week (+17% YoY)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 66/kg, this is NOK 9.4/kg higher than the corresponding week last year (+17%), and around the same level as we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.9/kg (+11% YoY). Export volumes were 21,682 tonnes last week, which is 2% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 11% and export prices in EUR are down -23%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 60.5/kg (PAS est. NOK 61/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 66/kg (prev. est. NOK 61/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 66/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 56.3/kg (+1.1/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.1/kg (+0.2/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11.9/kg fillets (+0.1/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 7.9/kg (-0.2/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 18.7/kg in week 7, +3% from the week before and -12% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 62.8/kg last week, +5.1/kg from the week before and NOK -7.1/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 32.4/kg last week, +1.6/kg from the week before and +3.5/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 55.2/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

"Det går likar no"



"Salmon price NOK 61 (EUR 6.3) next week, +3/kg YoY

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 61/kg, this is NOK 3/kg HIGHER(!) than same week last year (+6%) and around the same level as we expect for this week. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.3/kg (-2% YoY). Export volumes were 20,360 tonnes last week, which is 1% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 12% and export prices in EUR are down -24%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 53.4/kg (PAS est. NOK 55/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 61/kg (prev. est. NOK 58/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 61/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 55.2/kg (+0.6/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 55.9/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11.8/kg fillets (+0.4/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.2/kg (-0.6/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 18.0/kg in week 6, -4% from the week before and -12% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 57.7/kg last week, +0.9/kg from the week before and NOK -16/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 30.8/kg last week, +0.2/kg from the week before and +2/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 54.7/kg (EUR 5.6/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Også fint driv i Lsg idag ?

Ingen innertier for sjømataksjene på OSE i dag, selv om SALM var svært nært.
Kanskje kan forventninger om kommende ukes prisutvikling gjenopprette kjøperinteressen vi har sett de foregående dagene?

"Salmon price NOK 58/EUR 6.0 next week (+3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 58/kg, which is NOK 3/kg higher than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will then be NOK 3.5/kg lower than the corresponding week last year (-6%), and in EUR the price will be EUR 1.0/kg lower (-14%). Export volumes were 22,263 tonnes last week, which is 7% above the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 16% and export prices in EUR are down -25%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 50.6/kg (PAS est. NOK 51/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 55/kg (prev. est. NOK 54/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 58/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 54.6/kg (+0.9/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 55.9/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11.4/kg fillets (+0.3/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.8/kg (unch. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 18.0/kg last week, -4% from the week before and -12% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 56.7/kg last week, NOK -3.6/kg from the week before and NOK -13.2/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 30.6/kg last week, NOK -0.5/kg from the week before and NOK +2.6/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 52.8/kg (EUR 5.5/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Pareto venter opptur for spotprisen neste uke og markedet er enig med frisk grønnfarge på alle sjømataksjene.

"Salmon price NOK 54/EUR 5.6 next week (+3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 54/kg, which is NOK 3/kg higher than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will then be NOK 8.9/kg lower than the corresponding week last year (-14%), and in EUR the price will be EUR 1.5/kg lower (-21%). Export volumes were 22,856 tonnes last week, which is 14% above the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 18% and export prices in EUR are down 21%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 52.6/kg (PAS est. NOK 53/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 51/kg (prev. est. NOK 50/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 54/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 53.7/kg (unch. from last week)
2019: NOK 56.0/kg (-0.4/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11.1/kg fillets (+0.5/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.8/kg (+0.2 from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 18.9/kg last week, +8% from the week before and -2% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 60.3/kg last week, +3.2/kg from the week before and -13.2/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 31.1/kg last week, -0.7/kg from the week before and +NOK 2.0/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)  QTD NOK 53.2/kg (EUR 5.5/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Kult at du gidder!!

Stort volum presser fortsatt spotprisen.

"Salmon price NOK 50/EUR 5.2 next week (-3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 50/kg, which is NOK 3/kg lower than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will then be NOK 13.2/kg lower than the corresponding week last year (-21%), and in EUR the price will be EUR 1.9/kg lower (-26%). Export volumes were 23,276 tonnes last week, which is 18% above the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes are up 17% and export prices in EUR are down 27%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 54.0/kg (PAS est. NOK 53/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 53/kg (prev. est. NOK 54/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 50/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 53.7/kg (-0.2/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.4/kg (-0.1/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 10.6/kg fillets (+0.1/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.6/kg (+0.4 from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 18.5/kg in week 3, +11% from the week before and -11% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 57.1/kg last week, +1.1/kg from the week before and -15.2/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 31.8/kg last week, +0.3/kg from the week before and +NOK 3/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg) (QTD NOK 52.8/kg (EUR 5.5/kg))
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Fortsatt for tidlig å akkumulere?

"Salmon price NOK 54/EUR 5.6 next week (+1)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 54/kg, which is NOK 1/kg higher than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will then be NOK 10.6/kg lower than the corresponding week last year (-16%), and in EUR the price will be EUR 1.7/kg lower (-23%). Export volumes were 21,976 tonnes last week, which is 13% above the corresponding week last year. YTD export volumes are up 17% compared to last year.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 51.8/kg (PAS est. NOK 53/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 53/kg (prev. est. NOK 54/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 54/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2018: NOK 53.9/kg (-0.3/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.5/kg (-0.3/kg from last week)
2020: NOK 48.2/kg (+0.3/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 10.5/kg fillets (unch. from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.1/kg (+0.2 from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 18.5/kg last week, +11% from the week before and -11% from the corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 56.0/kg last week, +1.1/kg from the week before and -25% from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 31.5/kg last week, -0.3/kg from the week before and +6% from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2018-2020e
2018e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering forteller meg at den oppgangen Pareto (og andre hus) venter i dette kvartalet ennå ikke er bekreftet.

"Salmon price NOK 52/EUR 5.4 next week (-3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 52/kg, which is NOK 3/kg lower than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will be NOK 19.5/kg lower than corresponding week last year (-27%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 2.6/kg lower (-43%). Export volumes were 18,503 tonnes last week, which is 13% above the corresponding week last year. Last four weeks export volumes are up 18% the corresponding weeks one year ago.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 54.8/kg (PAS est. NOK 55/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 55/kg (prev. est. NOK 55/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 52/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2017: NOK 60.9/kg (unch. from last week)
2018: NOK 53.9/kg (+0.6/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.8/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 10.5/kg fillets (-0.4/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 7.7/kg (-0.2. from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 17.3/kg in week 52, +8% from the previous week and -6% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 58.5/kg in week 1, -0.3/kg from previous week and -13.4/kg from the corresponding week last year

Cod price NOK 30.6/kg in week 1, unch. from previous week and +2.1/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2019e
2017e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q3 17: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
Q4 17e: NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg)
2018e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
Q1 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q2 18e: NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8/kg)
Q3 18e: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.7/kg)
Q4 18e: NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
2020e: NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.5/kg)"

Ifølge Pareto sin oppdatering i dag bør det bli en ok start på nyåret for sjømatselskapene.

"Salmon price NOK 55/EUR 5.6 next week (+3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 55/kg, which is around NOK 3/kg higher than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will be NOK 24/kg lower than corresponding week last year (-30%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 3.2/kg lower (36%). Fresh export volumes were 27,622 tonnes last week, which is 29% above the corresponding week last. YTD export volumes are up 1.5% compared to last year and the export price in EUR is up 2%.

Salmon and white fish prices Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 49.2/kg (PAS est. NOK 49/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 52/kg (prev. est. NOK 47/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 55/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2017: NOK 60.8/kg (-0.1 from last week)
2018: NOK 53.7/kg (-1.5/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 56.8/kg (-0.7/kg from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 11/kg fillets (+0.1/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 8.0/kg (+0.3/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 16.7/kg in week 50, -8% from the week before and -6% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 57.2/kg last week, +0.2/kg from the week before and -13/kg from the corresponding week last year Cod price NOK 31.4/kg last week, +0.2/kg from the week before and +2.2/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2019e
2017e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q3 17: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
Q4 17e: NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg)  Avg Q4, incl. our estimates, will be NOK 49/kg (EUR 5/kg)
2018e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)"