Laks - Pareto oppdaterer

nike
GSF 21.12.2017 kl 11:43 18220

ATH volum siste uke til spotpris som holdt seg bedre enn en kunne frykte.

"Salmon price NOK 47/EUR 4.7 next week (-2)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 47/kg, which is around NOK 2/kg lower than our estimate for this week. The spot price next week will be NOK 31/kg lower than corresponding week last year (-40%) and in EUR the price will be EUR 3.9/kg lower (-45%). Export volumes were 32,918 tonnes last week, which is 23% above the corresponding week last year and the highest weekly export from Norway ever. YTD export volumes are up 1% compared to last year and the export price in EUR is up 3%.

Salmon and white fish prices

Spot prices FCA Oslo
Last week: Reported at NOK 49/kg (PAS est. NOK 49/kg)
This week: We expect NOK 49/kg (prev. est. NOK 51/kg)
Next week: We expect NOK 47/kg

Fishpool forward prices:
2017: NOK 60.9/kg (unch. from last week)
2018: NOK 55.2/kg (-0.3/kg from last week)
2019: NOK 57.5/kg (unch. from last week)

US prices:
Miami: USD 10.9/kg fillets (+0.5/kg from last week)
Seattle: USD 7.7/kg (+0.7/kg from last week)

French retail price for salmon fillets EUR 18.1/kg in week 49, unchanged from the week before and -11% from corresponding week last year

Trout price NOK 57.1/kg last week, +3.4/kg from the week before and -14/kg from the corresponding week last year Cod price NOK 31.2/kg last week, 0.9/kg from the week before and +2.6/kg from the corresponding week last year

Pareto salmon spot price estimates for 2017e-2019e
2017e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)
Q1 17: NOK 66/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q2 17: NOK 67/kg (EUR 7.2/kg)
Q3 17: NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.9/kg)
Q4 17e: NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg) QTD avg, incl. our estimates has been NOK 48.5/kg (EUR 5/kg)
2018e: NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.2/kg)
2019e: NOK 60/kg (EUR 6.4/kg)"
nike
23.08.2018 kl 17:43 6164

Ser man det!

Pareto venter at fallet i spotprisen snur kommende uke og igjen etablerer seg over 50

Sterkt på bakgrunn av den ekordstore eksporten!


"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 51/kg (EUR 5.3) next week (+3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 51/kg, this is the same as the corresponding week last year, and NOK 3/kg (+6%) higher than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.3/kg (-4% YoY). We estimate a Q3 price of NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg). Export volumes from Norway were 25,333 tonnes last week, which is +12% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 9%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -8%."

Ja dette er sterkt. Halve Vestlandet slaktes pga. lus, det er fellesferie og hetebølge i Europa. Kanskje høstens prisbunn allerede er passert.

Silberman
nike
30.08.2018 kl 12:07 5819

Fortsatt rerordstor slakting og spotprisen stiger i den stille tida for eksporten til Europa.
Utmerket!!

Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"
Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.7) next week (+3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 57/kg, this is NOK 3.8/kg (+7%) higher than the corresponding week last year, and NOK 3/kg (+6%) higher than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.7/kg (+2% YoY). We estimate a Q3 price of NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg). Export volumes from Norway were 24,699 tonnes last week, which is +9% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 9%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -8%."
mozel
30.08.2018 kl 13:20 5769

Spørs om den rekordstore slaktingene er noe å juble for. Det innebærer at liten fisk slaktes og det blir lite igjen som skal vokse til stor fisk.
Det gir høyere priser men tapt volum. For å utligne fremtidig volumtap må prisøkningen som følge av mindre tilbud være betydelig, bortimot 25%.
Redigert 30.08.2018 kl 13:30 Du må logge inn for å svare
nike
06.09.2018 kl 13:40 5399

Prisen ser ut til å løfte seg ei krone til, iflg dagens prisoppdatering fra Pareto:

"
Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 63/kg (EUR 6.5) next week (+1)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 63/kg, this is NOK 13.0/kg (+26%) higher than the corresponding week last year, and NOK 1/kg (+2%) higher than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.5/kg (+21% YoY). We estimate a Q3 price of NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg). Export volumes from Norway were 24,142 tonnes last week, which is -1% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 9%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -8%."
nike
13.09.2018 kl 10:01 5164

Giskeødegaard venter sterk prisoppgang framover, men den kommer neppe umiddelbart ifølge Pareto sin oppdatering i dag:


"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.8) next week (-3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 56/kg, this is NOK 4.1/kg (+8%) higher than the corresponding week last year, and NOK 3/kg (-5%) lower than we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.8/kg (+6% YoY). We estimate a Q3 price of NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg). Export volumes from Norway were 24,105 tonnes last week, which is -3% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 8%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -7%."
nike
20.09.2018 kl 10:27 4918

Stille før stormen?

Here r Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"
Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.9) next week (unch.)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 56/kg, this is NOK 1.7/kg (+3%) higher than the corresponding week last year, and unchanged from what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.9/kg (+2% YoY). With these estimates, the Q3 price FCA Oslo will come in at NOK ~53.9/kg (EUR 5.6/kg) vs our estimate of NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg). Export volumes from Norway were 24,611 tonnes last week, which is -4% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 8%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -7%."
nike
27.09.2018 kl 10:18 4603

Høstens prisoppgabg lar vente på seg.
Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:


"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 54/kg (EUR 5.7) next week (-2)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 54/kg, this is unchanged from the corresponding week last year, and NOK 2/kg (-4%) lower than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.7/kg (-2% YoY). With these estimates, the non-volume weighted Q3 price FCA Oslo will come in at NOK ~54.0/kg (EUR 5.6/kg) vs our estimate of NOK 52/kg (EUR 5.5/kg). The Q3 Miami price is looking to come in at USD 11.45/kg fillets vs our estimate of USD 11.4/kg fillets. Export volumes from Norway were 24,000 tonnes last week, which is -4% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 7%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -6%."
nike
04.10.2018 kl 15:55 4291

Vi venter fortsatt på høstrallyet, men hva gjør det når kursene stiger uten hjelp av stigende spotpris?

Her er Pareto sin orsdagsoppdatering:


Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 53/kg (EUR 5.6) next week (-1)

"We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 53/kg, this is NOK 2.5/kg (5%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK 1/kg (-2%) lower than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.6/kg (+4% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 25,819 tonnes last week, which is -2% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 7%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -6%".
Hegu
09.10.2018 kl 12:12 4100

Laks: Teknisk analyse og fundamentale kommentarer på laksesektoren (video):

http://www.proinvestor.com/debat/76341

Evly
09.10.2018 kl 16:49 3022

Nasdaq salmon index
-4,88% per kilo
nike
11.10.2018 kl 10:18 2942

Håper dette er første signal om at spotpriser under 60 er historie for denne gangen:

Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:


"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 56/kg (EUR 5.9) next week (+1)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 56/kg, this is NOK 4.0/kg (8%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK 1/kg (-2%) lower than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.9/kg (+7% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 26,733 tonnes last week, which is 4% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 7%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -6%."
nike
18.10.2018 kl 10:26 2847

Ser ut til at det drøyer med høstoppgangen, men hva gjør det når kursene stiger daglig likevel?

Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 57/kg (EUR 6.0) next week (unch.)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 57/kg, this is NOK 7.8/kg (16%) higher than corresponding week last year, and unchanged from what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.0/kg (+16% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 25,999 tonnes last week, which is 5% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 7%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -6%."

Pareto korrigerer, prisen under press

We get some pushbacks on our price estimate for next week. According to several sources the spot price is lower, and expectations are that prices next week will be lower than NOK 57/kg. Spot prices are under pressure, and currently around NOK 52-53/kg.

See mail from earlier today below
nike
25.10.2018 kl 11:50 2703

Kan vi eeendelig vente starten på høstrallyet?

Pareto ser muligheten i sin torsdagsoppdatering:


"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 58/kg (EUR 6.1) next week (+3)

We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 58/kg, this is NOK 14/kg (32%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK 3/kg higher (+5%) than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.1/kg (+32% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 27,527 tonnes last week, which is 9% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 7%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -6%."
nike
01.11.2018 kl 11:39 2563

Dette hadde jeg ikke venta, og neppe analytikerne heller. Prisfall akkurat nå som julerallyet er i startgropa.
Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8) next week (-2)
We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 55/kg, this is NOK 9.2/kg (+20%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK 2/kg lower (-4%) than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.8/kg (+19% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 26,005 tonnes last week, which is -5% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 6%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -6%. "
nike
08.11.2018 kl 11:55 2419

Surt å se at starten på julerallyet er utsatt til over midten av november.
Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 55/kg (EUR 5.8) next week (unch.)
We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 55/kg, this is NOK 4.5/kg (+9%) higher than corresponding week last year, and in line with what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.8/kg (+11% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 25,928 tonnes last week, -3% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 6%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -5%."
nike
15.11.2018 kl 12:53 2235

Ingen signaler i spotprisen om at det bare er vel 5 uker igjen til jul

Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 53/kg (EUR 5.5) next week (-1)
We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 53/kg, this is NOK 8.7/kg (+20%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK -1/kg (-2%) lower than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.5/kg (+20% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 25,273 tonnes last week, -6% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 6%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -5%."
nike
22.11.2018 kl 11:19 2061

Pareto venter at denne ukas fall i spotprisen snur forsiktig opp, men nå spøker det for julerally 2018

"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 51/kg (EUR 5.2) next week (+1)
We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 51/kg, this is NOK 7.8/kg (+18%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK +1/kg (+2%) higher than what we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.2/kg (+18% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 26,185 tonnes last week, -2% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 6%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -4%. "
-Dëë-
22.11.2018 kl 16:30 1996

Julerally uteble ifjor og. Men her vi, lagt ett knallår bak oss.... igjen. ?? ?
milk
22.11.2018 kl 18:32 1960

Det spøker for både ditt å datt og den ene og den andre,det kan ingen endre på.... ;-) Oppdretterne hadde et dårlig volum i Q3 pga at de ville dra fordelen av bedre pris før Jul. Kjøp og salg er aldri enkelt. Det være seg fisk eller aksjer. For heaven`s sake,sitt rolig i sjarken å la Jula komme og gå :-)
nike
13.12.2018 kl 15:41 1745

Julerally for sjømataksjer kan glemmes:

Her er Pareto sin torsdagsoppdatering:

"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 57/kg (EUR 5.9) next week (+1)
We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 57/kg, this is NOK 7.8/kg (+16%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK 1/kg (+2%) higher than we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.9/kg (+17% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 29,631 tonnes last week, 3% higher than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 5.4%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -3% (-0.8% in NOK). "!
Bippe
14.12.2018 kl 16:16 1665

Skal si GSF fikk smake pisken idag! fredagssladder er ikke å spøke med. så får vi se hva SSB melder på onsdag.
milk
14.12.2018 kl 18:06 1627

Som sagt,vi solgte mye fisk lenge før Jul. Ble et bra Q3 :-) Er det så vanskelig å sitte stille å la Jula 2018 gå inn i historien da ;-) Ett lite hint,påska 2019 kan bli et lite eventyr.... Alle som kjøper på denne dippen,kan være godt fornøyd! PS.
Redigert 14.12.2018 kl 18:15 Du må logge inn for å svare
nike
20.12.2018 kl 10:58 1464

Kan vel kalles et mini julerally?
Her er dagens oppdatering fra Pareto:

"Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 61/kg (EUR 6.2) next week (+6)
We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 61/kg, this is NOK 9.4/kg (+18%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK 6/kg (+11%) higher than we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 6.2/kg (+18% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 30,620 tonnes last week, 7% lower than the corresponding week last year. Compared to last year, YTD export volumes from Norway are up 4.4%, while the YTD export price in EUR is down -2.8% (-0.6% in NOK)."
nike
10.01.2019 kl 13:17 1172

Laks begynner å bli interessent igjen.
12 % høyere pris enn tilsvarende uke ett år tilbake forteller om solid etterspørsel og lover godt for dette kvartalet.

Seafood Price Update - Salmon price NOK 58/kg (EUR 5.9) next week (-1)
We expect the salmon price for next week to be around NOK 58/kg, this is NOK 6.2/kg (+12%) higher than corresponding week last year, and NOK 1/kg lower (-2%) than we expect prices for this week to come in at. In EUR, the salmon price next week will be EUR 5.9/kg (+10% YoY). Export volumes from Norway were 17,199 tonnes in week 1, 7% lower than the corresponding week last year. However, week 1 had one more working day in 2018.
Bippe
31.01.2019 kl 15:56 979

Noe må ned på OSE når DOW går ned. Og når olja står stille så står laksen lagelig til med sin store oppgang siste års tid. Mange selskap har gått over 50%. Klart det er en del å tære på her når robotene kjøres på høyere gir.

Analytiker Tore Tønseth i Sparebank 1 Markets mener utviklingen i lakseprisen har vært svakere enn de ventet ved inngangen av året og mener årsaken er mer volum tilgjengelig.

"Selv om volumene som har gått ut av Norge de første ukene av året er under 2018-nivåer, endte forrige uke på 23,7 kilotonn, opp to prosent fra samme periode i fjor. Dette er et høyt volum for å være januar. Det har i tillegg sannsynligvis vært noe lager igjen i EU inn i 2019, samtidig som de nyeste Aquabench-tallene fra Chile indikerer 25 prosent mer 5 kilo + tilgjengelig til sjøstart i januar", skriver meglerhuset.

Pareto Securities forventer laksepriser denne uken på nivå med forrige uke.

"Vi forventer priser rundt 55 kroner pr kilo denne uken, som er uendret fra forrige uke. Fortsatt høye volumer holder prisene på relativt lave nivåer. Kontali økte sine veksttall for 2019 til 5,5 prosent vekst, mot tidligere 3,5 prosent vekst", skriver meglerhuset.