Traderpengene brukes vel på Jin akkurat nå, inntil shorterne plutselig tar penga deres.

Her kommer ganske heftige stimuli til cape-ratene!!

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-shifts-stimulus-to-infrastructure-supportive-of-capesize-freight/

Ja, dette har vært kjent i markedet en tid. Men i GOGL er det ratene i ferien som styrer kursen. Hva som skjer fremover, er uten betydning ser det ut til. Så da får vi bare vente på at kursen skal følge ratene frem til jul. Dvs kraftig nordover.

Nå ligger alt til rette for at vi skal opp mot 100. Last opp

Skjønner ikke de som selger på lavt 77-tall! Enten kjøpe på disse nivåene, eller i det minste selge over 81!

China Shifts Stimulus To Infrastructure, Supportive Of Capesize Freight
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 05/10/2018

China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment has opened the door to a substantial increase in the use of coal for power production in the country’s northern provinces who will now be allowed to set their own winter output curbs for heavy industry.

‘Local authorities should carry out production cuts based on their individual situation and refrain from adopting blanket cuts,’ the Ministry said in its final plan released before the weekend.

The most coal intensive of all Chinese industries is the steel sector, which in turn responds rapidly to changes in construction and infrastructure spending.

According to the OECD Chinese steel mill capacity dropped 100 million tonnes from 1.15 billion tonnes in 2015 to 1.05 million tons in 2017 which does not include an estimated 140 million tonnes of illicit production, since shuttered by authorities seeking to curb pollution and drive efficiencies in a sector heavily dominated by State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). Steel exports have dropped 13 percent to 47.2 million tonnes so far this year.

The Australian Governments Office of the Chief Economist, today said China’s steel market is about to hit its peak in 2018, but will shrink next year as local demand drops.

OCE said iron ore export earnings are forecast to decline 7.8 percent from A$60.4 billion in 2018-19 to A$55.7 billion in 2019-20, mainly due to lower prices but that iron ore will however, remain Australia’s biggest export earner in 2019-20.

Strong demand persists however, thought to emanate largely from domestic infrastructure spending and One-Belt-One-Road projects. Coupled with the lower production capacity, this demand has substantially boosted the profitability of steel makers, driving up the cost of steel and keeping the price of iron ore elevated.

The mill closures, and in particular the illicit production volumes shuttered during 2016 and 2017 combined with a ‘free flow’ production schedule over the winter months is now likely to cause a flood of steel into the local markets and abroad.

Going into next year as steel demand from housing construction skews to a slower growth trajectory, Beijing is increasing its spending on infrastructure including more than 75 million tonnes of construction steel needed to build subway networks in several large Chinese cities. Some will hit the export markets.

This stimulus package in all but name is very supportive of iron ore and Capesize iron ore transportation from both Australia (C5) and Brazil (C3) over the next few months, as mills will be looking to restock their iron ore inventory before the winter.
Source: FreightWaves

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-shifts-stimulus-to-infrastructure-supportive-of-capesize-freight/

South American exports help shipping industry offset trade war fallout
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 05/10/2018

Exports from South America are helping the shipping industry to fend off the effects of the U.S.-China trade war, the chief of shipping information provider Baltic Exchange said in an interview.

Mark Jackson, CEO of the 274-year-old London-based organization which is wholly owned by Singapore Exchange, said rates in the bulk freight market were holding firm and goods continued to flow despite the imposition by Washington and Beijing of tit for tat tariffs. But he conceded that the growing wave of trade protectionism could disrupt traditional shipping routes.

Jackson told the Nikkei Asian Review in an interview that grain export volume from the U.S. to China had fallen in reaction to the 25% tariffs imposed on products such as soybeans. Yet exports from South America have increased, he said. Rates remained solid because the overall volume of cargo remained strong. “Shipping, because it is a very global marketplace, reacts very fast [to the new rules],” Jackson said. “It is very hard to contain trade.”

Jackson’s view is shared by Jayendu Krishna, director of Drewry Maritime Advisors. “Total traded volume of soybeans, grains and coal, the three largest traded commodities between the U.S. and China, is just about 1% of total global dry bulk trade,” Krishna said. “Therefore, the potential for the dry bulk market to get severely affected due to the trade war is limited.”

The Baltic Dry Index, Baltic Exchange’s main index for tracking the cost of shipping dry bulk cargo, has been on a recovery track since it hit the lowest level in its three-decade-plus history in early 2016. Despite a weak spell in August, things are still looking up.

Industry watchers expect the index to head higher due to a tighter supply of ships coupled with healthy demand. Maritime research consultancy Drewry sees dry bulk shipping demand growing 2.7% per annum over the next five years.

A strong global economy has helped the shipping market bounce back from its crisis in 2016. Though oversupply has not been completely wiped out, Jackson observed that “the amount of new building of ships is very slow.”

Nonetheless, with the trade tensions fueling uncertainty, interest in freight rate information is increasing, he added. Baltic, started releasing grain freight indexes in July for the new routes from the U.S. Gulf to China, as well as from South America to China.

Baltic traces its history back to 1744 when sea merchants gathered in a London coffee shop to exchange news on chartering vessels. Its indexes are used as bench marks for freight or ship charter rates, as settlement tools in freight futures trading, or simply to understand the health of the shipping market.

Singapore Exchange, or SGX, acquired the operation in November 2016 for 87 million pounds ($108 million at the time). The bourse wanted to cultivate the maritime financial derivatives market. Since then, the storied London institution has been focusing on Asia expansion.

In the first year after the acquisition, Baltic’s individual members — ship owners, vessel operators, commodity traders, brokers and so on — increased by about 300, of which about 100 came from Asia, Jackson said.

Currently, Baltic counts 602 corporate members, with 126 from Asia. It welcomed its first Vietnamese member in 2018, and Jackson said new members from countries like Indonesia, Malaysia and Japan have come aboard too.

Along with access to freight indexes as well as dispute settlement services, being a Baltic member confers a certain status within the industry. Jackson said the organization aims to attract more Asian members with new services.

One example is an escrow service, where the organization acts as a trusted agent for members’ ship purchase transactions.
The service is to be offered from Singapore, starting this month. Baltic will hold deposits paid by the buyer — often several million dollars — to make the process simpler than having to use a bank. The decision to begin in Singapore was made because “[Asia] is where most ship purchase transactions are taking place,” Jackson explained.

The plan is to expand the service to Tokyo within two years, where secondhand ship transactions are active.

“We are leveraging on Baltic’s brand and trusted position in the shipping marketplace, and on SGX’s knowledge of running a financial marketplace,” Jackson said.

Baltic also is working to launch new indexes geared to Asian needs. A new liquefied natural gas index will go live in October. Covering the route from Gladstone, Australia, to Tokyo, the new gauge is to provide a benchmark for spot charter rates for LNG carriers, given increased spot trading of LNG in Asian countries including Japan.

On the container shipping side, Baltic tied up with Freightos, a Hong Kong-based online freight marketplace, to launch a series of container freight indexes in April.

These new initiatives are the result of a long-term strategic vision for Baltic, now that it has SGX as its owner, according to Jackson. “We can take a bit more business risk, and start investing for the future and looking at a longer horizon.”
Source: Nikkei

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/south-american-exports-help-shipping-industry-offset-trade-war-fallout/

Denne kommer nok med en kraftig rekyl, så det er bare å ta det med ro

Atlantic Panamax grains freight hits near 4-year high on bunkers
in International Shipping News 08/10/2018


Panamax grains cargo freight rates from the East Coast of South America have reached near four-year highs and are set to go even higher in mid-October as bunker fuel prices continue to soar, market sources said.
IFO 380 CST was assessed up $10 to $532/mt in Santos on Thursday, up 22% since September 5. The Santos to Qingdao, 60,000 mt grains route was assessed at $39.25/mt on Thursday and Friday, the highest since S&P Global Platts began assessing the route in December 2014.
“Owners may soon be asking well into the $18,000s/day on time charter for Panamax vessels from the ECSA,” a ship broker source said. “Especially at a time when bunker fuel prices are so high. Owners are asking crazy numbers to try and hedge against the bunker increases — we could see the voyage rate hit $40/mt by next week.”

Interesant å se at kursen stiger 1,32%, selv om 60% av alle handler er initiert av selgere.

Potensialet er over 100

Du glemte prosent.tegnet :)

Ser at markedet setter pris det fantastiske panamaxmarkedet vi har om dagen. Høyeste rater på seks år! Grattis GOGL'ere :-)

Shorterne benyttet selvsagt anledningen på fredag med å dekke seg inn. https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051

Bare å gratulere shorterne som leker seg når panikkangsten råder.......

Capesize – A robust week for Capes in the East despite the holidays in China,
with earnings on the Australia to China route increasing by 9% during the week,
but these gains being capped later. This growth was mainly down to port delay
issues that affected vessel availability and increased bunker costs. In the West, a
rumored upsurge in activity never materialized, squeezing rates 2% lower. At the
same time, the North Atlantic activity remained subdued, as interest for open
tonnage remained was held back.

Panamax – A week with improved earnings, with the BPI climbing to 1,727 points,
an increase of 35 basis points. ECSA activity supported the market, as demand
remained strong for yet another week, mainly thanks to Far East demand. The
North Atlantic saw gains during the week as well as position lists were being
slimmed. Meanwhile, the market in the Pacific basin was as also fairly robust, with
demand for coal in the region remaining strong and keeping things busy.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/ALLIED-Weekly-Market-Report_05_10_2018b.pdf

Det ser ut til at jernmalmen er i fint driv nordover:

"IOS: A rangebound morning on DCE before a slightly stronger close saw it touch 517.5 before closing at 516. Nov ranged $69.50 - $69.90, Dec at $69.40 as outright interest remained focused at the front-end with activity light."

Ja Sa2ri, pilene peker oppover nå. Recovery går etter planen, sakte men sikkert. Det går faktisk såpass bra at det ser ut til at man får kjøpt GOGL til under NAV i dag :-)

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/shipowners-stock-up-on-dry-bulk-carriers/

FFA: Capes and Pmx are trading a bit firmer nearby vs yesterday while Smx is flattish, maybe a touch softer down the curve. Expecting Pmx/Smx index to be flattish.

Føles trygt og godt å sitte i kvalitetsaksjen GOGL når det blåser må jeg si. Pengene renner inn, og nå i formiddag smalt ratene opp igjen i både Panamax og Cape i Kina. Tipper vi setter ny 5-årsrekord i Panamaxratene i dag også. Ser at markedet tolker det som Fake News (i best Donald stil). Men husk at alt som står i donaldblad ikke nødvendigvis er sant :-).

Grattis til dere som får kjøp her på 60-tallet (justert for Q3 utbyttet).

Her er litt mer fake news:
https://splash247.com/weekly-broker-q4-off-with-a-bang/

Panamax rates are at their highest level in more than four years. The US-China trade war seems to actually be helping freight as cargo dislocation creates tonnage tightness.

https://twitter.com/DryBulkETF/status/1050552489907539968

Ja, dette er noe vi har sett som sikkert mange er overrasket over. Og i dag får vi ytterligere stigning i Panamax-ratene (Caperatene ser også ut til å stige videre). Kina ligger foreløpig 1.6% bak y/y på malmimporten. Det har hindret spiken i caperatene, men får håpe de løsner snart nå som vi går inn i høysesongen. I tillegg har vi hatt så og si null skraping de siste to årene. Det ser også nå ut til å ta seg opp, og jeg forventer at vi vil se at skrapingen tar seg kraftig opp mot IMO2020.

Takk for info KJEPET. Hvor finner du ut at ratene stiger? Er det noe du kan tenke deg å dele?