Basic thesis: in a market where polysilicon supply is lower than demand, a firm like REC that has some of the lowest cost of production, should be valued at the replacement cost of its facilities, which should be at least 25 billion kroner (more if they buy up to 49% in Yulin). Price target for 2021: 50-75 kroner. Expecting rest of COVID pandemic to have minimal impact on REC, if anything a positive impact due to "green new deal" recovery policies.

The boom scenario: REC is a spot market player with low(est) cost of production. Polysilicon is a very small fraction of the 1US$/Watt of installed PV: approximately 3 cents. A doubling of the price of polisilicon to 20$/kg, would only raise the cost of an installed PV watt by 3%. There appear to be very few capacity constraints in other parts of the supply chain (wafer, cell, module assembly, aluminium). There has been some limits in glass in 2020, but they are thought to be resolved in 2021. Any shortage in polysilicon is thus likely to result in steep price increases with little negative feedback on demand. A scenario where PV prices rise to 20$ per kilo in the spot market has decent probability of occuring in 2020 / 2021. There is precedent for large increases in poly price, in 2008-2010 when considerably more poly was consumed per Watt, German PV policy resulted in polysilicon prices in excess of 300$ per kg. In a scenario where poly prices exceed 20$/kg, REC should be valued considerably above the replacement cost of its facilities. PT: significantly in excess of 100 kroner per share.



Basic prediction on news flow in early 2021: good flow of REC-specific positive news in 2021 with expected rise in poly price. Expecting the policy environment to be strongly supportive in the USA with COVID recovering spending (Green New Deal) + Support for carbon neutrality + Strong trade stance to secure US jobs. Major RISK: Expecting announcements of big expansion plans of chinese poly producers, but unclear how likely it is for announced expansion to occur and in what timeframe. It could well be that there are several boom years beyond 2021/2022, before new capacity comes on line.

ST polyprice mouvement:
- Polyprice almost doubled with the loss of just some 10k MT in autumn 2020 >> this is a sign that supply must be relatively tight at the moment.
- IHS markit is predicting a lot of price pressure in 2021H1, which they believe will reduce towards the end of the year.
- Even Bernreuter (a poly price bear) predicts a tight poly market in 2021 (although he predicts large capacity expansions in 2022).
- Daqo has entered LT contracts with many customers and is announcing close to sold out capacity in 2021 and 2022 (https://www.pv-tech.org/news/daqo-secures-last-polysilicon-supply-deals-as-technically-sold-out-for-next-two-years)

REC basic
- Q4 results in (February 19.)
- ML re-opening timeframe decision (announcement 2020Q1, probably Q4 results)
- Yulin share: likely financed by emission (2020Q1) - Unclear whether REC can or must act in 2021Q1
- Is REC going to restart ML with production of mono quality. Would seem crazy to not upgrade FBR at ML to Monograde during current shutdown. Failure to perform upgrade would be a big negative as market share of multi has been falling for years.
- OBX inclusion (March 1.)
- Aker financial support has been crucial. Inclusion of REC in Aker Horizon's industrial portfolio would be even better and might also mean that Aker buys up more shares to gain greater control (2020Q1).

REC wild cards:
- RISK: Indemnity loan resolution: might have to pay up.
- Expansion plans at ML (old project that was never completed)
- Licencing deals to build new FBR factories based on REC technology (not inconceivable e.g. India, Saudia Arabia).

Existing partners funding and building progress:
- Actual partner building progress at ML (violet and G14)
- Who is behind Violet Power: probably solid backer (as a high quality leader like Charlie Gay has agreed to lead the company AND they had a supply deal with Meyer Burger)
- Who are Violet Power's customers? Could it be Tesla roof tiles (since Panasonic is no longer supplying them)?
- G14 just secured 17M US$ funding from OCI from Korea in Dec. 2020.

New partners:
- More battery partners: Sila? Sila (funded by Mercedes) is on some of REC's presentation slides.
- Who will produce ingots and wafers at ML for Violet? Norsun?

LT demand for poly:
- Predictions from BNEF that 2021 and 2022 are going to be massive years (30-40% more GW PV installed than 2020)
- RISK: Reduced consumption of poly in wafer cutting: thinner wafers and reduced kerf loss. Great progress has been made over the past 10 years, but additional improvements should become increasingly difficult.

LT supply of poly:
RISK - Bernreuter predicts big addition in 2022 which could be a reality, but:
- Bernreuter has an incentive to hype this to sell reports as this flags a danger on the horizon (>> sell more reports).
- All poly producers have an incentive to scare competitors with announcements of huge future capacity plans to deter competitors from adding capacity.
- GCL is planning FBR capacity, but it is not sure whether they can actually scale this up. REC has a better track record here.

US policy
- Democratic control of Senate (Georgia)
- Trade stance to remain tough: tariffs on China
- ITC support for solar PV >> now part of COVID relief package.
- Direct / indirect support for US manufacturing: e.g. preferential treatment of low carbon manufacturers.

Chinese policy: specifics of new PV policy to reach their carbon neutrality goal (announcement March 2021)

EU policy:
- France and South Korea are favourable to ultra low carbon input and have concrete supportive policies in place.
- REC best on EU taxonomy
- Green hydrogen in Europe will require large investments in solar and wind.