Nikko's tradingstråd - April 2022

Denne tråden er stengt for nye innlegg.
20.04.2022 kl 20:38
Automatisk lukket grunnet trådens størrelse. (Beklager.)
Nikko
KOA 01.02.2021 kl 09:27 1034725

Vi starter med en ny tråd for februar 2021.
Tråden er lukket, men er i prinsippet åpen for alle. Det eneste kriteriet er at her tillates ingen trakassering eller latterliggjøring av andre debattanter. Da er det rett ut!
Du kan ellers skrive hva du vil.
Velkommen - hilsen fra Nikko ☺️


OBS! Deter noen nick jeg ikke klarte å overføre . Bare send melding så fikser jeg tilgang.
Redigert 01.04.2022 kl 12:25 Du må logge inn for å svare
cover
11.02.2021 kl 12:09 8891

I likhet med i går, liten spread, lavt volum. Skal se det kommer en liten "peak" snart. Hold på aksjene!
Sølvbuen
11.02.2021 kl 12:35 8825

Interessant link du sendte SDRL. Takker !
Hvem selger ja ? Bl.a. Roboten/Shorterne som hele tiden stiller toveispris hele tiden med omtrent 3,5-4 øre mellom kjøper-selgerkurs.. Akkurat nå ca 3,50-3,535 med ca 1 mill aksjer begge veier. De forsøker å plukke et volum på 3,50 som så legges for salg 3,5 øre over. Hele tiden driver de marketmaking ser vi. (Tenk 1 mill aksjer og du har tjent kr 35000,- ). Som sagt før, prøve å unngå handle med han. Vil du selge eller kjøpe så legger du deg innen spreaden typ; 3,51 omtrent som kjøp eller 3,52 salg) Fordi trolig er dette PDT og Citadel og vi ser de er nå i minus med ca 2-3 mill. Fort mer pga. såkalt tidsverdi og implisitt volatilitet i shortkontrakten. Så hvis de ikke får til løpende trading på denne måten, innenfor en kurskanal pr nå typ Høy ca 3,60-50 (kontrakt i tap) & Lav 3,20-3,30 (kontrakt i pluss ) - så vil de trolig miste interessen. Får vi et rykk opp nå, stiger tapene for disse to. De må da vurdere å stenge kontrakten eller fortsette sideveis på nytt nivå. Vår interesse er å få kursen opp, som vi absolutt mener er grunnet i fundamental/god drift i selskapet. Forventet fortjeneste pr aksje etter itt skjønn 800-100 øre pr aksje i inntjening nå, tror jeg (Ta det for hva det er - Kvalifisert Gjetning Kun). Mao. P/E 3 - 5 på 2021-22 tallene. Svært Undervurdert !
Nikko
11.02.2021 kl 15:13 8495

Nei, det er vel derfor Robbie og shorterne sliter nå. Tror vi skal opp. Langt opp 👍
Furuen
11.02.2021 kl 16:04 8408

Ordredybden sier OPP, men det selges NED.
Fruitman
11.02.2021 kl 16:15 8403

Typisk det der
KongenAuto
11.02.2021 kl 16:31 8367

I HATE seeing the shorters win! The stock is just completely deflated. It was an absolute killer for a stock day and yet our little prince just deflated like a moldened mushroom. I don't know, I might just give up on this one. People talk about buying the stock and then they sell it behind closed doors. There's no coordinated effort to battle the shorters. I wouldn't be surprised the shorters know something about the company and use it here. Besides, the fact that the company despite the massive industry recovery didn't manage to bring the cash flow to the positives tell me they haven't come to the grips with how to run a business with profits. Basically the company is bleeding to death, sooner or later. I mean my God, do they really expect us shareholders to dilute ourselves everytime because they have lousy lying CEOs who talk the talk but don't walk the walk?? Look at their website "creating shareholder value"..."2 digit profitability". It's a laughing stock at this point. They should change their slogan to "Draining our shareholders year after year "...,
Redigert 11.02.2021 kl 16:55 Du må logge inn for å svare
Nikko
11.02.2021 kl 16:43 8413

Tålmodighet ;-))

Jeg tenker heller at det er sterke krefter som har i oppdrag å holde aksjen nede.
Tanken har streifet meg om det er et aktuelt oppkjøp på gang?
Redigert 11.02.2021 kl 16:46 Du må logge inn for å svare
4300dk
11.02.2021 kl 18:33 8590

Jeg støtter helt klart tålmodighed og vi nu tættere på d.26 feb hvor vi får det fulde regnskab og guiding videre frem 😊 Selvskabet har meldt ud at de forventer øget indtjening som vi nok får høre lidt mere om. Så bare slap af og tag en kold øl på min regning 🍻😅 15 dage til 🚀🚀😍
Sølvbuen
11.02.2021 kl 18:39 8702

Well, the management seeming very focused and profitoriented, ref Notice late January Trading Update. It was really positive. So I await the Presentation and full Annual report on Feb 26th. hearing how the management team now presenting outlooks and business operation. The global markets outlooks next 3-5 years is really Proseperous and Growing.
Else I fully agree on those short contracts and the history of those combined with sale from shareholder. I disagree that the shorters have inside's, regulation are rather strict in US on such. From my experience they are only financial/profit oriented aiming making all day long. Seeming especially PDT paid badly last 2 months from those shorts and I really doubting that their net loss is that big. Hedge funds have multiple strategies and transactions (Bull/Bear/Spreads) and I suspecting that they have som others financial contracts (not disclosed), hedging that peak from share price last January. Well timed all of a sudden main shareholders sold 150 mill (15 mill after reversal split) shares, at almost peak levels! I suspect, a result by an in the money call option being executed, issued from earlier on when it was far out-of the money I guess. All-in-all much financial engineering going on here. Some of this is quite normal I would say, multiple companies on Oslo Børs have same. Not only KOA. To my humble opinion there is a price on this caausing fluctuations and volatility. I wonder if more industrial oriented focus and long term equity capital would be needed and implying better valuation to all shareholders. I am really a smaller shareholder and still very optimistic for the Co going forward. Inclduing the management team and new CEO. This might be a Question to the Chairman Next meeting, from you bigger private shareholders.
Sølvbuen
11.02.2021 kl 19:01 8871

.... Making money all day long ( fell out :-) .
Last I disagree that shorters winning really. As I see it the last few days both trading volumes and volatilily have declined, rather substantially. Today we had Turnover nok 42 mill and 11,9 mill shares traded. Normally we had seen (NOK 50-120 mill on average lately). Average price today 3,52. High-Low 3,56-3,465 or 2,7% volatility (normally some 6 % on average daily basis). All in all this means improvments because it means that trading becomming more marginal, risk-reward decerasing and making trading even harder ! So let us keep on ! Remember; Do not make trades with the robots which we dislike a lot ! Rather let us making the spread even tighter !!
Garmis
11.02.2021 kl 19:45 8804

Hører dere, ikke trade med robotene!
rogneveien
11.02.2021 kl 19:54 8795

Bra Nikko.

Da er vi enig.- Tålmodighet i denne er en dyd.

Lykke til
Nikko
11.02.2021 kl 20:05 8823

Det har gått en viss en i meg!
Jeg selger ikke før jeg kan høste en skikkelig gevinst. Har imidlertid kommet frem til at jeg skal bruke 20% av porteføljen til å trade for. I dag kjøpte jeg en post til 3,48 og solgte til 3,53. Tenker at jeg trader med 20%. Har lært av cover 😁
KongenAuto
11.02.2021 kl 20:09 8857

On a fantastic stock day, Kongsberg went down. What does that tell you? Low volume as well. It tells me there's zero interest for the stock. I actually wonder if there's just us here who push the price up. I mean think about it, the last report was really positive but the stock went down almost 7%. Not until Aksjeanalyser went out with an outlandish projection did the stock pick up. Had it not been for that, who knows if the stock had even made it to 0.2 NOK. There should have been ZERO reasons for the stock to go down on a day like this. Zero interest is what made me sell all my stocks today, all 250 thousand of them....i there are just way too many other stocks with massive imminent potential for me to stick around with this potato. Sorry for putting it like that :(
Nikko
11.02.2021 kl 21:33 8635

Da har du tatt et valg. Til lykke med dine investeringer i andre selskaper. Selv tror jeg du kommer til å angre for ditt valg.
Sølvbuen
11.02.2021 kl 21:37 8780

Come on, you know the market is functioning ! Today market went upp 0,4 %. KOA were down 1 øre or -0,25%. The beta value tells you that the volatility is about 5-6 % every day. Here you have even the Shorters fighting every day, keeping the share to be devalued or depressed. Today they lost ! Becuase of low volatility and low trading. Down on lov volume is better than if volumes increasing to my understanding.
Anyway, we do not have to agree on everything ! I consider the share to be heavily undervalued trading on implied P/E 3 - 5 as net earnings per share expecting approx. some 0,75- 1,00 NOK 2021-22 . In that range somehow and If I am right about this - it is really a fair buy I would say ! Let us know if you seing something even more attractive buys ! Nice Evening to you !
cover
11.02.2021 kl 21:44 8848

Det er jeg som er elev av Nikko 😁 Lite lærenem sådan. Har mye å takke ham for.
Nikko
11.02.2021 kl 21:49 8890

Sammen er vi dynamitt 🤠
KongenAuto
11.02.2021 kl 23:16 8760

Sure, I'll share my thoughts on a few stocks below. I'm heavily invested in
1. Cloudberry Clean Energy - a fantastic management team with almost non-existent debt in the company. The stock is trading just above its introduction price. I think huge potential. Their CVO (Chief Value Officer) has previously been a partner of Pareto Asset Management and director of a portfolio. Petter W. Borg sits as a board member, he's been the CEO of Pareto Asset Management. I mean they have their nodes expanded to asset management companies. Expect several "anbefalningar" in the near future. Also outstanding M&A knowledge in-house.

2. Aker Horizon - just launched. Owns Carbon Capture and Aker offshore wind among others. Very ambitious and well connected. Obviously endless resources through Aker holding

3. Zwipe and Idex - the time is right for the expansion of payment cards with fingerprint sensor particularly with the pandemic speeding things up. With the fingerprint solution on the credit card you will solve 2 major problems: 1. If the card is stolen, payments are deemed impossible, even for smaller purchases. 2. No need to touch the pad for pressing your code which reduces the risk of transmitting viruses.

These are my top picks really and with my sales in kongsberg I'll be able to invest more on these stocks. If I stick to Kongsberg, I'll be dead by the time the stock is back where it started in 2020. But I shall add that I''m not saying it won't rise back up again, it's just that it will take significantly longer than anticipated. I have major concerns over the management team, in particular the CFO who has a key role in the business. For long enough he has failed to generate positive cash flow which is the ultimate purpose of a company. Furthermore, the new CEO has very limited acumen in the area in which kongsberg operates. His previous tenure has been in a company with far less business lines and in less number of world regions. I fear this will be a far too hard of a struggle for him. Bear in mind, he left the previous company just as he claimed they will do miracles. We shareholders in kongsberg have already had our share of lying CEOs, remember when the last one claimed Kongsberg had secured funding and thereby eliminating the need for capital increase, just to reverse and then lay out a record shareholder dilution?? Or the yearly promises of positive cash flow next time around that never materialize?? Anyway, I'll be watching the stock from remote..meanwhile, I deem the other stocks as much more potent for the time being.
Redigert 14.02.2021 kl 17:59 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sdrl2022
12.02.2021 kl 08:35 8394

Du har mange poeng med ditt innlegg, koa lever sitt egen liv og så har det alltid vært, mange positive sider men også negative, mye gml historie. Men vi får se hva dem kommer med dem neste 14 dagene.
Nikko
12.02.2021 kl 09:20 8227

Liten aktivitet i aksjen i dag. Finner den roen før oppgang? Eller...?
Saddam68
12.02.2021 kl 10:12 8070

Går i minus idag også....merkelig aksje ja....tror jeg må ut fra koa jeg også nå.....
Sølvbuen
12.02.2021 kl 10:23 8051

Thanx KongenAuto I am responding to you in english, even I guess you speak norwegian as well :-) Let us be patient about KOA going forward. The underlying markets in which the company operates are doing well to my opinion. So if KOA have the Earnings according to what Management is adressing, I consider shareholder will do just fine in the end. Profits from bottomline will sooner or later ending up with higher share price. I have experienced this over a few decades !
Some of those progressive shares you suggesting are quite interestingas well and I have shares in REC & IDEX. So Aker Horizon /REC Silicon and Idex seeming promissing. The other I will study more. I consider AKH/REC to be very sustain and highly undervalued still as the EV market will increase exponentially. Next 5 years from 2 mil EV per year to some 40 mill (+80% Y/Y). Solar power and wind is blowing, ref Ørsted Copenhagen valued at some DKK 600 billion. AKH have currentlya marketcap of NOK 26 Billion. Outlooks very promising ! Idex had a really nice notice today but lagging from the pick-up in Next which is disappointing.
But let us agree on KOA really having much more attractive multiples than IDEX :-)-:)) I recommend you to repurchase some KOA shares .As they say BUY on the DIPS, but do not BUY the DIPS !!!
Grimsmo
12.02.2021 kl 12:09 7763

Etter en tøff Short uke ligger vi fortsatt 1,5% over Oslo Børs på ukesgrafen.De er egentlig ikke ille. Regner med at vi får lift off når de nermer seg slutten av neste uke
Redigert 12.02.2021 kl 12:46 Du må logge inn for å svare
KongenAuto
12.02.2021 kl 12:10 7761

Hey "Sølvbuen". Thanks for your thoughts. I barely understand Norwegian, so I stick with English if that's ok.
I do believe Kongsberg will eventually climb back up but my hint tells me that the following factors limits the upside which is evident from the stock development recently:
1. Distrust and resentment for the majority owners Teleios. The arrogant way they sold out recently caused turmoil and the stock is still shaking from that ordeal. It just raised a lot of questions as to why they did sell just a few weeks prior to the fiscal report. Do they know something we don't?

2. The lack of trust for the top management - as I mentioned previously, their track record is appalling. The fact that they still claim they create shareholder value on their website is beyond embarrassing. But most importantly, the company is not profitable, it's bleeding money despite the massive growth in China. It begs the question WHY: is it the limited acumen of the management or an assortment of their products being obsolete which brings me to my next point

3. Product lines - many of the products will just die out as a result of electrification. Could this bring the risk of making kongsberg more of a "one hit wonder"? Is competition gaining momentum? Nevertheless, the fact that several products will be rendered obsolete it is quite alarming. And the management has not adequately communicated their efforts toward electrification adaptation. That in and of itself is quite worrysome

4. Limited acumen of CEO - Kongsberg is probably much larger and complex than the last company ( Inalfa Roof System) which was specialized in solar roofs for cars. That's just one product as compared to Kongsberg's dozens of products in 3 different product categories. Furthermore, the following article raises concerns as to the focus and loyalty of Buchheim https://www.theceomagazine.com/executive-interviews/automotive-aviation/jorg-buchheim-2/. It seems that he leaves Inalfa in the midst of their restructuring. This is not particularly confidence-inspiring. Imagine him getting a better offer elsewhere and just leaves kongsberg for a better option. His way of departure also alludes to the risk of lacking perseverance when things get tough. Is Buchheim really the right type of CEO character for a challenge in Kongsberg that is in a desperate need of becoming profitable while adjusting its business to the electric development of the industry. I would have preferred a CEO that looks how Kongsberg can extend its business to adjacent products for which Kongsberg can make great use of its competence and resources. A progressive CEO with a wider vision.

5. Low margin business - the Automotive supplier industry will always have low profit margins and is not remotely as interesting as ESG stocks with massive potential in the near future. Maybe shareholders are shying away from stocks such as kongsberg and instead opt for visionary companies that have far better potential in the near future.

I might be wrong, but then again look at Aker Horizons today. I've saved at least 15000 NOK by selling my Kongsberg yesterday. The upphill struggle is evident even though I do believe the stock will slowly recover. But with limited resources I had to choose to step down and go for the other stocks in the short term.
Redigert 12.02.2021 kl 12:13 Du må logge inn for å svare
Slettet bruker
12.02.2021 kl 12:13 7752

Ikke den beste børsdag heller i dag. Flat i bredden, så KOA slipper ikke unna der. Det er nok IT sektor som har hatt den beste dagen.
Slettet bruker
12.02.2021 kl 12:19 7730

I'm heavily invested in Idex, MPC Container, Magnora, and Cloudberry Clean Energy
Also defensively placed in Europris and Kitron (small posts)
Idex and MPCC are my top picks for 2021 and generally LONG
But, waiting it out on KOA until they report the numbers, and crossing my fingers. Eesh....ha!
Redigert 12.02.2021 kl 12:25 Du må logge inn for å svare
KongenAuto
12.02.2021 kl 12:34 7838

Yes Cloudberry Clean Energy is in my opinion a massive ticking bomb that will explode soon. They are uniquely positioned in terms of management team and M&A competence. They have almost no debt which implies significant margins. And add the surging electricity prices, things look certainly bright in the near future. I have 600 thousand NOK invested in the stock and I won't sell for a long long time.
Grimsmo
12.02.2021 kl 13:14 7680

Har du fått til noe Trading da Nikko? Jeg har ikke tatt sjangsen på de jeg nå. Ser ikke ut som shorterne får tak på så mye billige aksjer heldigvis. Sykt å se på hvor di slenger inn og ut summer men nesten ingenting kommer på omsattelista. Bare 10 små handler siste 10 min.
Tror og de er litt stille før stormen slik som vi så rett før Q3 og. Tok vel 2 dager før den tok av da.
Redigert 12.02.2021 kl 13:26 Du må logge inn for å svare
Nikko
12.02.2021 kl 13:35 7575

Jeg har fått til litt trading, Grimsmo. Solgte 50% på 3,49 ved åpningen. Ligger på lur. Tror kanskje den dupper i dag som i går. Kjøper meg inn igjen kl. 15:45. Det er robotene som bestemmer kursen nå.
Redigert 12.02.2021 kl 13:36 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sølvbuen
12.02.2021 kl 14:25 7427

Hi again Mr Kongauto, just too busy today and I get back in weekend more detailed. We might even find another link as this is for shorter mails and trading only. Nikko deciding. My comments on trading last coupple of months, we agree it is strange really about these trades from PDT/Citadel/Telios. Quite confusing and questionable. I wonder if they are Hedge Funds or EDGE Funds ! They really take on risk really and especially PDT seem to make Losses. How come and what and whom agenda is they pursuing ? I am really not worried short term share price because I really think it will start Boosting Up. The longer it takes, the even bigger it breaks up. Ref your Q's for the Co - EV, China and profitability /EPS - take a look here and see how they presented in 2019:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dFyy1R_fJQs

So let us stay tuned and get out and make some money - folks !
TABZE
12.02.2021 kl 14:33 7406

Sitter fast siden begynnelse av januar med denne koa fitte. Får ikke solgt fordi har stor tap. Er så irritert at jeg skal ha meg en BOLLEMUS ikveld hehehe
Saddam68
12.02.2021 kl 15:07 7359

Samma her TABZE.....bollemus og øl hjelper litt 😃😃😃
Grimsmo
12.02.2021 kl 15:08 7424

Bolle mus er Godt de🤣🤣👍👍 men Koa er ingen Fitte. Bare vent noen uker så stikker den opp og du får en knall avkastning 😎💰💰
Slettet bruker
12.02.2021 kl 15:22 7323

Thanks! Nice to 'hear' another opinion about Cloudberry. Not much talk about them. I just know that I really like the company. Good luck to us!
KongenAuto
12.02.2021 kl 15:43 7379

Good luck to you too my friend. The most important thing buying stocks is to do your homework and read about the company you're planning to invest in. Once you know you've found a good one you go for it all in! Pexip is another beautiful example. I enjoy it today 😎
TABZE
12.02.2021 kl 15:44 7327

Jeg elsker koa faktisk. Sånn er det bare. Kan ikke bare stige oppover hele tiden😁.
KongenAuto
12.02.2021 kl 15:46 7344

Thanks Sølvbuen. I' think I've seen that video but I'll sure look at it again later today!