GOGL -Petter Haugen tror på 100 000 dollar i Cape 2021

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01.10.2021 kl 16:08

Spår mangedobling i capesizeratene
Shippinganalytiker Petter Haugen mener at det er gode muligheter for at capesizeratene vil stige til over 100.000 dollar dagen i 2021. I dag ligger ratene på 12.000 dollar dagen

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shipping/2021/03/04/7637135/spar-mangedobling-i-capesizeratene

Det tror ikke jeg vi ser, 50k holder langt å lenge til å få Gøggen opp i 100 kr
Redigert 04.03.2021 kl 19:44 Du må logge inn for å svare
kakemann
21.05.2021 kl 12:35 7919

De sa noe om det i presentasjonen, men jeg husker ikke i hodet nå. Du kan se webcasten på nettsiden, de er innom temaet der. Den ligger nå noe lavere enn den har gjort husker jeg, men ikke eksakte tallene.
KJEPET
21.05.2021 kl 12:40 7893

Vale er nøkkelen her. Og om de treffer i nærheten av gudingen for neste år, så kommer vi ikke unna bonanza for capesize/nmax :-)

https://twitter.com/SofiosThanos/status/1395680463545643013

Fra årsrapporten:
Based on the current level of operating expenses, debt repayments, interest expenses and general and administrative costs, the average cash break-even rates on a TCE basis are (i) approximately $13,039 per day for our scrubber/non-scrubber Capesize vessels and (ii) approximately $8,553 per day for our Panamax vessels. As of March 17, 2021, average market spot rates year to date were as follows: Non-scrubber fitted Capesize vessels approximately $16,800 per day, scrubber fitted Capesize vessels approximately $19,800 per day and non-scrubber fitted Panamax vessels approximately $15,800 per day.

Q1, fant ikke tall:
“As pleased as we are to have generated the best first quarter result in the history of the Company, we are more excited for what lies ahead. The combination of counter-seasonal strength and the volatility in rates is indicative of a tightening market balance, and we have grown increasingly optimistic about the potential for a prolonged period of higher rates. Golden Ocean is well-positioned for this market, particularly following our recent acquisition of 18 vessels, including three newbuildings. Our focus on larger vessel classes and specialized trades, that have the greatest leverage to improving markets and our ability to maintain extremely competitive cash breakeven levels will result in significant cash flow generation. Golden Ocean has historically returned value created to its shareholders, and the resumption of our dividend payment is a strong reflection of our expectation that the market will remain strong for the foreseeable future."
vulkan
21.05.2021 kl 15:14 7705

Begynner å dra seg til idag og....
May 37000 +500
Jun 38375 +2750
Q3 38625 +2000
Cal22 22050 +425
redigert: og det fortsetter å stige etter dette
Redigert 21.05.2021 kl 15:33 Du må logge inn for å svare

Ikke tvil om at det er USA som driver kursen om dagen. Nå omsettes den også unormalt mye høyere enn på OSE.

Noen som har kursmål fra Clarkson, som angivelig skal har høynet til det høyeste kursmålet i "byen"?

https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/finans/2021/05/21/7677350/hele-byen-heier-frem-kursrakett

Mange takk.

Det betyr at #1 ikke er en del av "byen", altså. Greit å vite

Veldig lovende, viser at de spiser stålet med fart. Ganske tydelig hva Kina prøver på her. Fortsetter nok tappingen et par uker til slik at jernmalm kan komme ned til en stabil pris under 200.


Golden Ocean's $752m deal with John Fredriksen's Hemen Holdings delayed reactivation of its quarterly dividends, but investors can expect more payouts this year if markets maintain their firm footing, the bulker owner's chief executive says.

On Thursday, the Oslo and Nasdaq-listed company announced its most profitable first quarter to date and a $0.25-per-share dividend that was five times higher than most analysts expected.

Andersen has been in the top job at Golden Ocean for just over 12 months. He joined in early April last year, a few weeks after the global Covid-19 crisis had been declared a pandemic.

He told TradeWinds it has been "quite a ride" but there have been ups as well as downs.

"Normally, what I would have done would have been to travel the world to meet our clients, our brokers, our banks and other stakeholders. And it takes a lot of time away from the time you would have in the office to really understand the organisation," he said.

"In that sense, Covid was a blessing in disguise because there was no expectation for me to travel the world and spend so much time on the road. It meant I had a lot of time to get under the skin of the Golden Ocean organisation."

But a particularly rough moment was announcing a $160m loss — mainly due to Covid-19 — during the first quarter 2020, after he had been in the CEO chair for just a month.

This is not the first John Fredriksen-backed company that Andersen has headed. He spent a year as CEO of LPG owner Avance Gas before Golden Ocean.

Moving from the LPG sector to the much larger dry bulk sector took some getting used to.

The biggest surprise was that he expected the sale-and-purchase market in the bulker market to be much more liquid — although all that has changed over the past couple of months as the chartering market has hotted up.

Fredriksen, he said, is an "active member" of the company's board.

"He has a hand on the steering wheel in Golden Ocean. He's actively involved in deciding and formulating the strategy like, I think, any prudent board member would and should be," Andersen said.

Chief executive Ulrik Andersen told TradeWinds that the super-sized payment seeks to make up for the fact that Golden Ocean did not pay a dividend in the final quarter of 2020 — but there were reasons for that.

"In Q4, we would have paid out dividends and we would have announced it in Q1 [2021]. But at that point, we were in the middle of the negotiations on the transaction with Hemen on the 18 vessels, so we decided to pause our dividend payment for Q4," he said.

Flexibility
During the first quarter, Golden Ocean completed a transaction with its largest shareholder, Fredriksen's private vehicle Hemen, which will bring its fleet close to 100 vessels.

Golden Ocean is spending $752m on 10 newcastlemaxes and eight kamsarmaxes, all of which were previously managed by Fredriksen's Seatankers Management.

With the Hemen transaction completed, Golden Ocean decided to pay out $0.25 per share after its "best ever" first three months and "very good" follow-up bookings for the second quarter, Andersen said.

"Going forward, our board has a stated official policy that it wants to pay out a significant portion of our earnings in dividends — of course, subject to market and investment opportunities," he said.

"It is in our DNA to pay out dividends, and assuming that the markets develop as we expect, then I think it's a fair assumption that the board will also allocate more dividends to the shareholders in the coming quarters."

Golden Ocean believes all the fundamentals are in place for good markets for capesize and panamax bulkers, the two core segments on which it focuses.

The biggest risk, Andersen said, would be a slowdown in China's growth and its appetite for iron ore, grains and coal — but that is not happening right now.

"On the contrary, we are seeing record and very early purchases of grains from China. We are seeing, obviously, iron ore imports going up; we're seeing steel production hitting record highs in April," he said.

"But, of course, it is a risk. If the Chinese attempt to bring down pollution through a curb on steel production, that will have an effect in the second half of the year.

"Right now, we see so much momentum in the Chinese economy that we find it hard to see a larger correction. If there's a slowdown, okay, I think the market can absorb that. But we don't see a crash around the corner."
Capesize and panamax spot rates hit levels this quarter not seen for more than a decade and remain elevated, despite cooling off since their peaks.

Golden Ocean aims to manage its exposure to market volatility flexibly, Andersen said, as shown by three capesize time charters that were converted from floating to fixed rates during the first quarter.

"This is something we will continue to do — to de-risk and to take money off the table," he said.

"We will remain, of course, exposed to the spot market — we have to and we want to — but when we see the spikes, we will also take money off the table.

"So, we are not planning on being a 100% spot play for investors to buy in and out of as a proxy for the Baltic Index. Instead, we will take and manage the risks by taking fixed cover essentially."

Taking contract coverage for the first quarter next year is especially important because seasonally it is the weakest quarter, he said.

"But the deals we have done now are better than the average Q1 and even if next year is going to be a good Q1, we still don't think it necessarily can compete with above $30,000 [per day]."

eriksu2
21.05.2021 kl 22:51 6934

Platinum365, bankersen, kjepet og longsitinbulk.
Holder dere fortsatt hele posisjon? Kursutvikling fremover er det sannsynlig at kurs vil gå over 100? ser det kun er hannis som har kurs godt over 100.
Ulrik slo jo til med bra utbytte som usa har tatt godt imot. Er vell godt tegn på at de ser lyst på fremtiden.

Men har vært med i flere år å har endelig fått betalt for tålmodigheten, trodde oppgangen skulle komme tidligere men det har vært mye støy spesielt i bulk, så vet at denne oppgangen kan forsvinne fort hvis vi møter på nye sorte svaner..

Hadde vært supert om dere kunne delt litt tanker rundt dette...
komfa
21.05.2021 kl 23:01 6936

Hvorfor roper du etter Longs? Bare sutring og Avanse der i gården. Nei nyt oppgangen uten longs.

Jeg har fått 2 kroner av de 80 som kommer i utbytte de neste 3 årene. Hva tror du?
Redigert 21.05.2021 kl 23:08 Du må logge inn for å svare
Andy85
21.05.2021 kl 23:27 6974

Hei!

Takk for flotte og kunnskapsrike bidrag om golden ocean group. Jeg lærer noe nytt hver dag. Jeg kjøpte meg godt inn i shipping for en liten stund siden på bakgrunn av hannisdahl, finansavisen og all infoen jeg fant her. Takk så mye. Den siste uka har jeg hatt papirgevinst på opp mot 90 000 kr. Det er mye for en som ikke tjener allverdens. Ønsket bare å dele en personlig historie
Andy85
21.05.2021 kl 23:36 6944

Så vidt jeg kan se sto hannisdahl på 74 i kurs i fjor høst; mens for eksempel pareto sto på 42. Ingen tvil om hvem som traff best. På bakgrunn av det jeg har sett her og andre steder virker det som hannisdahl går for å være blant de beste på shipping - her kan kanskje andre tilføye noe om hvilke meglerhus som er best?

Uansett sitter jeg stille og venter på utbyttene fremover. Hva var det hannisdahl estimerte, 132?

#1 er verdens beste shippinganalytiker 3 år på rad. Er vel ikke mye mer å si om det.
kakarlss
22.05.2021 kl 10:54 6441

Gogl sluttet på 10,64$ i USA og 10,68$ på etterbørs. Holder dette så blir det "morro" til tirsdag.
hogan
22.05.2021 kl 11:37 6352

Enig, tankinvestorer var rasende på ham når han spådde tank nord og ned etter contangoen i fjor vår men han hadde rett, husker jeg var irritert

Hannisdahl har vært hovedgrunnen til at jeg først kjøpte tank og senere bulk.
Pilteri
22.05.2021 kl 16:18 6006

Velkommen i "klubben". Er vi heldige slår spådommene til og vi får et par-tre år med gode rater. Registrerer at det popper opp nye nick her noe som jo ikke er rart med tanke på oppgangen i det siste.

Pilteri, det kommer til å vare en stund.

Petros Pappas oppsummerer viktige punkter, kort og godt: Expectation For Higher Freight Rates And Scrubber Earnings Ahead: https://youtu.be/48PWa-vCw3g
Pilteri
22.05.2021 kl 18:05 5864

Tror også det Golden. Det jeg liker best her er at verftskapasitet verden over er låst fremover. Så om ikke noe helt uventet skjer så blir dette veldig veldig bra. Husker ennå ratene på forrige supersyklus. Tenk om vi kom opp dit....da blir det sinnssykt, som ungdommen sier..

Det finnes en overhengende fare for supersykel i råvare, men strengt sett er ikke dette nødvendig for at tørrlast skal kunne ha en svært profitabel syklus de neste 4-5 årene. "Alt" som trengs er fortsettelse av et moderat trykk på råvarer samt fravær av black swans.

Løpegutten mimrer Cape á 200k/d: https://youtu.be/v56Am6Qqq-0

Dry Bulk Market: Fundamentals Support New Rally After Latest Overcorrection

"According to Tamara Apostolou, Research Analyst with Intermodal, “while the market is multi-factorial with fundamentals, sentiment and inter-freight correlation amongst sizes feeding one another, the current Cape market correction was exacerbated after Chinese authorities intervened to curb iron ore price speculation. A subsequent sharp reversal of iron ore and steel prices from record highs and FFAs selling off contributed to pulling the Cape market lower, while the smaller segments were unaffected. It is well known that Capesize is characterized by the highest freight volatility and even though that we expect volatility to keep up, we are not convinced that this is the turning point for a prolonged market correction. Fundamentals are likely to outlast volatility and we cannot exclude that the next leg higher will find a much higher peak over the next two quarters with cargo export seasonality emerging stronger across all commodities and particularly iron ore”."

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-fundamentals-support-new-rally-after-latest-overcorrection/
KJEPET
24.05.2021 kl 11:23 4309

Cape opp 8,7% i China i dag :-)
Swordrup
24.05.2021 kl 11:32 4323

Meget bra👌 Nydelig å være i shipping for tiden😊 Veier opp for for mine grønne aksjer😁
Frontman
24.05.2021 kl 12:16 4227

Børsen oppe i Unaiten idag?
Pilteri
24.05.2021 kl 12:28 4188

Usa er åpen ja så her er det bare å holde på hatten.

Jeg ser det er ganske stor nedgang på braemer. Hvordan veier den opp mot oppgang i kina?
Frontman
24.05.2021 kl 13:08 4123

Herlig da, håper vi det drar seg over 90 kr
Andy85
24.05.2021 kl 13:51 4071

Tror dere vi kan få kurs på opp mot 120 de neste månedene om trenden vedvarer? Q2 kommer jo raskt og mange vil ønske å være med. Kan vi snakke 140 i kurs i løpet av året dersom Kina unngår nevneverdige korreksjoner?
NOKIA1
24.05.2021 kl 14:03 4066

Pre-Market: 08:00AM EDT: 10.93 +0.29 (2.68%)
Andy85
24.05.2021 kl 14:08 4101

Stemmer det som marketbeat sier at direkteavkastningen er 9.40 for Gogl q1?

Alt KAN skje. Gøggen KAN prises til 115kr uten at annet skjer enn at prisingen blir tilsvarende som i SBLK. Fjerner man all usikkerhet så KAN gøggen prises over 200kr. Om det skjer, er noe helt annet.

If my grandmother had wheels... : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqzkKs5shCM