GOGL - Oktober #2

Sa2ri
GOGL 12.10.2018 kl 18:30 24135

Bulk report – Week 41
12 October 2018

Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with the key West Australia/China rate falling over a dollar in one day, dropping Tuesday to $7.95 before climbing to $8,50 on Wednesday and finishing the week in the low $9.00s. Timecharter rates also rose sharply with a well-described 180,000dwt reaching over $20,000 daily for China delivery with West Australia rounds. Brazil loaders initially saw rates change little despite Vale allegedly fixing several ships as well as CSN. Rates from Tubarao/China most of the week failed to reach $21 but Friday saw a report of a 27-28 October cargo fixed at $21.00 and rumours of a second-half November cargo fixed at $22.50. The North Atlantic market was initially very slow, but here too rates barrelled higher despite little change in cargo volumes. A good spec 179,000dwt open Gibraltar, fixed a trans-Atlantic round at $18,000 daily with Skaw-Gibraltar redelivery, or, $20,000 daily if Cape Passero and a super eco achieved $23,750 daily from Gibraltar for a run from Bolivar to Rotterdam.

Panamax
Last week the North Atlantic firmed as sustained demand saw a clear out of most of the prompt tonnage. Several charterers took tonnage for two to three laden legs despite paying a premium, with modern Kamsarmaxes fixed at $18,000 redelivery Atlantic. The South was a little slower than previous weeks, with attention now focused on November stems, which, seemed less abundant. However, rates have so far remained steady, with well-described ships still commanding around $16,500 from Singapore. The Pacific began to look more positional, with very limited NoPac enquiry. The region has been underpinned by consistent Indonesian and Australian mineral demand. However, vessels open in the North seemed to be discounting to find cover. Period interest remained with several vessels now being taken in the Atlantic to cover both trans-Atlantic and front haul stems.

Les hele rapporten her: http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-41-3/

De anbefalingene jeg har registrert i høst har variert fra NOK 95 til NOK 122.
Hvor DNB var lavest og SEB høyest.
Men jeg er alltid litt usikker på hvilken tidshorisont de har.
KJEPET
17.10.2018 kl 16:17 8992

Ser at f.eks Star Bulk har gått 31% opp siste året. GOGL er opp 4%. Etter hva jeg skjønner, må dagens kurs være en direkte mistillit til ledelsen i GOGL. Kan ikke finne noen annen forklaring. GOGL er jo ikke verdt mer enn stålverdiene snart.
Idar1
17.10.2018 kl 16:34 8933

Det ville være rart. GOGL var før regnet som et av de mest effektive tørrbulk rederiene.
laser
17.10.2018 kl 16:37 8920

Har sagt tidligere min mening om nettop det.... dagens leder - Vartdal - er en utrolig flink finanskvinne, men svært anonym og lite medie orientert. En riktig verdsettelse av selskapet sikrer tilgang til konkurransedyktig priset kapital og skaper konkurransefortrinn. Derfor ikke bare «internt» arbeid som skaper verdi for aksjonærene. Flott med utbytt - får se hvor sprek selskapet viser seg.
davan
17.10.2018 kl 16:52 8865

La inn kjøp tidlig i dag på 71,30 og den slo til, synes det var et greit lite kjøp. Vi snur nok nordover igjen!!!
Fikk jo utbytte nylig, ikke glem det, q3 blir bra etter alle solemerker!!
laser
17.10.2018 kl 17:05 8823

Q3 ble greit - hadde de hatt overraskende kostnader så hadde de meldt det. Videre har de kommentert at utbytte nå prioriteres - derfor holdes kostnadene nede. Bl.a tenker jeg der er avmålt med bestilling av scrubbers fordi bunkersleverandørene tvinges til å komme med kosteffektive erstatningsbunkers. Renere drivstoffer tvinger seg frem. Scrubbers er kun et mellomsteg og kan bli en dyr sak.
Q4 derimot......for lave fraktrater så langt i forhold til forventning. Lite Gogl kan gjøre annet enn å optimalisere drift - og det kan de.
hvasa
17.10.2018 kl 19:13 8660

At Investec spår den ned er et godt tegn. Dem bommer jo på det meste så vi får håpe dem bommer igjen. Forstår ikke at de engang får spalteplass med deres treffprosent. :)
Surik
17.10.2018 kl 21:29 8493

Du begynner vel ikke å tvile på Golden Oceans seilas inn i tørrlast himmelen Kjepet?
Bare en hundre lapp opp til din kalkulerte TP. Det lugger kanskje litt for tiden men den kommer nok.
KJEPET
17.10.2018 kl 22:03 8433

He, he. Nei Surik, dette her løser seg til slutt. Ingen fare med tvilen. Men det er jo interessant å vite hvorfor outputen fra Brasil øker samtidig som ratene står stille. Men det er i såfall ikke første gangen utålmodigheten ender i kursfall før det plutselig tar helt av. Cape er jo volatil, det vet vi. Så en graf tidligere i dag som viser en divergens mellom output av malm og rater som ser veldig merkelig ut. Ser ut som det har vært et enormt tilsig av nye skip, men det har det jo ikke.

Det jevner seg ut, og de tålmodige blir belønnet til slutt (da mener jeg ikke belønningen i himmelen :-))

Kan det være at Vale håndterer mye av skipningen selv, og at det derfor ikke slår ut på ratene?

Klippet fra Vales hjemmeside:

Green" vessel built on a Vale initiative loads for the first time at the Tubarão port



The first second-generation Very Large Ore Carrier (VLOC) loaded for the first time this week at the Tubarão port, in Vitória, Espírito Santo. The Yuan He Hai vessel, with a capacity of 400,000 t, is the first to come into operation of a total of 32 under construction to serve the seaborne iron ore trade, particularly in the Brazil-China route. The new VLOCs, more efficient and sustainable, are being built with Vale's support, maintaining the company's maritime transportation of cargoes as one of the most efficient in the world in terms of greenhouse gas emissions.

The ship, the first out of 32, will emit between 15% and 20% less carbon dioxide than the existing Valemaxes
The new vessels will emit between 15% and 20% less carbon dioxide than the existing Valemaxes, considered as the first generation, which have been in operation since 2011. The Valemaxes, a pioneer project by Vale, emit 35% less carbon dioxide compared to capesize vessels, which were the standard ships for iron ore transportation, with carrying capacity of 180,000 t. The Yuan He Hai docked at the Tubarão port last Sunday, Feb 25, and took one and a half days to load before departing to Asia.
The remaining 31 vessels ofm 400,000 t will be delivered to shipowners by the end of 2019. In addition, Vale is negotiating contracts which will result in the construction of new 325,000 t ships, called Guaibamax.
KJEPET
18.10.2018 kl 07:09 6988

Da fant jeg endelig ut hvorfor ratene ligger mye høyere bare litt lenger frem i tid enn de er pr. i dag.

http://www.mining.com/anglo-american-delays-minas-rio-ramp/

Volatilt marked og som vi så for noen måneders siden så er det et spill mellom kjøpere og selgere av frakt. La oss håpe vi nærmere oss skikkelig gode rater.
KJEPET
18.10.2018 kl 08:44 6852

Ser i FA i dag at Golden Ocean får en kjøpsanbefaling, og i forbindelse med IMO2020 vil "Golden Ocean bli en naturlig vinner" :-)
KJEPET
18.10.2018 kl 16:22 6679

Herlig fart i bulk US. På stigende BDI stiger Star Bulk nesten 3% :-)

Star bulk +3%, Scorpio +3,5%, Safe bulkers +6,5%...…………………...Golden Ocean ned -0,8%. Hva er problemet til Golden Ocean?
JSL
18.10.2018 kl 22:25 6439

GOGL stoppet på 8,42$ = 69,72 kr i USA i kveld. Spennende og følge utviklingen på OSEBX i morgen.
KJEPET
18.10.2018 kl 22:38 6406

I morgen settes nye rekorder i nybyggpriser for Capesize, BDI stiger igjen, og Panamax bryter 8-years high. Mens GOGL er på full fart mot konkursprising, mens de andre tørrbulkselskapene banker videre oppover. Forstå det den som kan.
Sa2ri
19.10.2018 kl 08:36 6245

Capesize Market Primed for a Late-Year Rally
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 19/10/2018

The dry bulk market fundamentals seem to indicate that a late-year surge in on the cards, at least for the sector’s barometer, the Capesize class. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “since the end of 2016, we have been witnessing a rather impressive recovery being noted in the dry bulk market. Given that much hope has been placed by many in the market as to this upward trend continuing and magnifying during the final quarter of 2018 it may well be interesting to take on some more in depth technical analysis in what the prevailing freight rate figures are actually saying with regards to the state of health of the current market”.

According to Allied’s Research Analyst, Thomas Chasapis, “to break this down and put some focus, we will take a look at the figures of the Capesize segment, a segment, typically seen as the overall barometer for market. After the collapse of 2016, the market has been on a relative stable upward trajectory in terms of earnings. Looking at things in terms of the BCI-5TC Average, in the year so far, the market has been enjoying a considerably higher average figure compared to the two previous years, having already climbed to US$ 16,696pd. You can see the difference when comparing this figure to the US$ 15,190pd average noted in 2017 and the US$ 7,389pd seen back in 2016”.

Chasapis says that “furthermore, when you take into consideration that we are still in the very onset of the final quarter and given that most market participants are still keeping a relatively bullish attitude, we may well see the final figure for the year reach even higher levels. So, just by taking such a simple look it seems that the expressed improvement is clearly apparent. Going beyond the question of if the market has improved or not, many would look to ask as to how sustainable this overall trend is and to what extent can we expect stability to take hold? A typical statistical instrument for measuring volatility is standard deviation. It is a measure of how spread out figures are from the average. When looking at the BCI5TC average, in 2018 to date this figure has declined slightly to US$ 5,406pd, while in 2017 this figure was in the region of US$ 6,000pd. As such it would seem that the level of volatility has dropped”.

“However, despite how bizarre it may seem, this year figure remains well above that of 2016 and 2015 (which were US$ 4,034pd and US$ 3,671pd respectively). To take things further however and to better understand the real impact of any given fluctuation to this index, we can look at the coefficient of variation. The reasoning behind this is to better get to grips with these standard deviation figures when compared to the average earnings noted (i.e. compare the percentage shifts instead of the absolute figure shifts). The coefficient of variation (which is the ratio of the standard deviation to the average) has decreased for a third consecutive year, from the high 54.5% in 2016 (a mere reflection of how low the average returns were that year compared to how high variations we noted in earnings), while for 2018, this figure is now just above 32%”, Chasapis said.

According to Allied’s analyst, “as such it seems as though we are not only noting less volatility in the market than 2017 but also when compared to the past 3 years. With all this being said, the dry bulk sector seems to be moving in the right direction, both in terms of improved earnings but also in terms of overall stability. This makes sense given the more balanced supply-demand dynamics now noted. All-in-all, it seems as though for the near term we are placed in a market of modest shifts and shimmies and with limited surprises on the horizon. One only wonders as to how long this can hold for”, he concluded.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesize-market-primed-for-a-late-year-rally/
Sa2ri
19.10.2018 kl 08:44 6207

Panamax vessel rates surge to 5-year high
in Dry Bulk Market,International Shipping News 19/10/2018

Panamax dry bulk vessel rates have surged 18% over the past month to near five-year highs amid strong Pacific coal transportation demand and a lingering Chinese appetite for Brazilian soybeans, participants said on Wednesday.

The Baltic Panamax Index was last assessed at 1,793 points, a level not breached since December 2013.

“Coal activity in the Pacific continues to be very high, particularly for shipments to China and India,” said an analyst with a large European shipbroking firm.

“Southern Chinese consumers are still relying on imports, as there have been stricter government inspections on domestic production [quality] than on imported coal,” he said.

China and India have been sourcing much of their coal from Indonesia and Australia, but also from South Africa and the US, he said, noting this related to both thermal and coking coal supplies.

Peter Lindstrom, head of research for shipowner Torvald Klaveness, said the outlook for freight rates in 2019 was largely positive.

“India and emerging Asian [economies] coal imports will continue to grow,” he said this week at the Coaltrans conference in Barcelona.

He also pointed to the prospect of low fleet growth and a “positive outlook on grains”.

Soybean support
The first analyst also pointed to the bullish impact on freight of ongoing Chinese demand for Brazilian soybeans, particularly in light of restrictions to purchases of US output.

China placed a 25% import tariff on US soybeans, in retaliation to president Donald Trump’s tariff hikes on Chinese goods.

Panamax vessels are generally 60,000-80,000 deadweight tonnes, and employed for the transportation of various dry bulk goods, such as coal and grains.
Source: Montel

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/panamax-vessel-rates-surge-to-5-year-high/
KJEPET
19.10.2018 kl 09:25 6107

Takk for det Sa2ri. Recovery er på track og vel så det.

Var det noe feil hos nettmegleren min et øyeblikk? Så ut som GOGL var i pluss i ett par minutter. Gikk inn på mobilen for å dobbelsjekke. Der så det mer "normalt" ut.
Kbkristi
19.10.2018 kl 11:05 5965

Nå nærmer vi oss farlig nært grensa hvor jeg sa til meg selv at jeg skulle hoppe av toget. Men jeg hadde ikke forestilt meg at dette skulle skje i Q4 !
Så jeg er veldig i tvil.
KJEPET
19.10.2018 kl 11:26 5906

Hva er som gjør at du tviler kbkristi? Er det kursutviklingen eller det fundamentale som gjør deg engstelig? Veldig mange tenker som deg nå og selger unna i panikk, selvom vi mest sannsynlig for en positiv BDI også i dag. Selv håper jeg det blir fullstendig panikk slik at man kan aktivere krigskassa og kjøpe litt på lav 60.-.
Mollen
19.10.2018 kl 11:31 5878

Solgte 20 000 FLEX aksjer nå nettopo og kjøpte GOGL. Mulig den skal noe lenger ned, men det tør ikke jeg vente på. Nå tror jeg vendingen er rett rundt hjørnet.
Kbkristi
19.10.2018 kl 11:46 5818

Dette er helt irrasjonelt i mine øyne, Kjepet. Markedet driter i at vi har en snittrate på $ 18.251 hittil i Q4. Pengene renner fortsatt inn, men grafene indikerer kr 63 som neste. Så her bør det snu kraftig opp, om det ikke skal gå troll i ord.
KJEPET
19.10.2018 kl 12:01 5763

Enig Kbkristi, men børsen kan være totalt irrasjonell til tider, og det er det som gjør børsen fascinerende. Da kan du få utslag som nå. Panamax ratene har steget i snart en måned i strekk, og Cape er på vei oppover de også nå. Men noen aktører selger uansett pris, mens kjøperne sitter på gjerde på grunn av for dårlige caperater (i forhold til forventning) og ikke minst alle nettavisene som er full av krigstyper. En korreksjon i oktober etter oppgaven de siste årene, kommer vel heller ikke som noen overraskelse på noen.

Her er det bare å skalke lukene, og jekke en øl sammen med tacoen, akkurat som vanlig :-)
mern1
19.10.2018 kl 12:13 5691

Ingen BCI i dag?
Sa2ri
19.10.2018 kl 12:25 5622

Opp ca. 2,2 % men har ikke kommer på TDN enda.
Kbkristi
19.10.2018 kl 12:27 5593

Takk, Sa2ri, sjeldent har vel dette tallet vært så viktig :)
Da avblåser jeg krakket :)
mern1
19.10.2018 kl 12:31 5550

Takk for info:) Tenkte TDN var kjappe på dette. Hvem får du info fra og Sa2ri?
Sa2ri
19.10.2018 kl 12:43 5496

Hvis du bruker en megler som har en Bloomberg terminal, eller har en selv, ja da kan du få tallene først, dette da tallene legges ut av Bloomberg og (relativt raskt) publiseres videre av TDN.
vulkan
19.10.2018 kl 13:16 5361

Plukket opp denne fra forumet.
http://en.sse.net.cn/indices/cdfinew.jsp
Den blir oppdatert daglig før BDI og viser alltid samme forandring som BDI (men ikke nøyaktig samme prosent)
Kbkristi
19.10.2018 kl 13:38 5268

Da får vi ta dagens fall som penger på gata. Snitt cape Q4 så langt ligger på $ 18.297 og har steget 13% siden bunnen i Q4 for 9 dager siden.
Sa2ri
19.10.2018 kl 18:43 5081

19 October 2018

Capesize
A positive end to last week after a shaky start, with a Coaltrans taking participants out of the market early on and with rates slipping. However, rising iron ore prices and renewed talk of Vale fixing ships from Brazil for early November, from Tubarao to Qingdao, in the low $20.00s, steadied nerves. Others fixed later November cargoes, allegedly at timecharter rates, equating to around $22.50. West Australia/China rates slipped to the low $8.00s but resistance was evident as the week closed, with rates nudging the mid-high $8.00s with reports of ships fixing on timecharter showing over $9.00. The North Atlantic was slow, although a 6-15 November, 160,000dwt, 10% cargo, fixed Puerto Bolivar/Rotterdam at just under $10.00. A well described 180,000dwt, with Gijon delivery secured $22,000 or $22,500 daily for a transatlantic round. NYK secured an NSSMC tender midweek to move a cargo from Port Cartier to Japan on voyage, but a timecharter equivalent in nearing $35,000.

Panamax
Coaltrans, in Barcelona early last week, disrupted trading with many travelling. However, the second half of the week failed to show improvement. The North Atlantic was bereft of fresh enquiry for most of the week, although a well described Imabari 84,000dwt fixed a US Gulf round voyage at $19,500 from the Continent. However, this was a fleeting high point as only prompt ships seemed to cover, while the rest waited, hoping for new business. The South American market was unusually slow with early ships still able to fix at strong numbers, evidenced by an October Kamsarmax fixing, basis Cape of Good Hope, at $18,150 plus $425,000 ballast bonus. But again, this appeared to be an exception, as most charterers with November stems held off and bid below last done. The Pacific saw a large volume of fixing, with Indonesia again the driving force, and vessels in the South maintaining strong returns whilst vessels in the North were forced to lower their expectations.

http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-42-3/

Ønsker med dette alle god helg.
Sa2ri
22.10.2018 kl 09:03 4753

SB1M beholder GOGL i sin ukesportefølje i dag, hvor de blant annet skriver følgende:

"En annen interessant nyhet har også kommet fra Kina. Både på fredag og natt til i dag annonserte de flere tiltak for å støtte økonomien og aksjemarkedet. Lite detaljer er gitt, men personskatten vil bli kuttet og skattesystemet reformert. Det kinesiske aksjemarkedet steg nesten 5% i dag, men det skal være ingen tvil om at myndighetene er urolige for fremgangen på konverteringen fra en investeringsdrevet til en konsumdrevet økonomi. Om noe, så tror vi dette vil gi støtte til selskaper som GOGL (kjøp, kursmål NOK100)."
Sa2ri
22.10.2018 kl 09:11 4720

Et lite klipp fra PAS sin Shipping Daily:

"Drybulk markets remain stable
- The dry bulk markets continued their stable trend last week. We saw a decline of both iron ore and coal volumes out of Australia, while Brazilian volumes saw a slight increase. Some of the coal decrease out of Australia was offset by Indonesian volumes – though this is a net negative for tonne miles. In total, 28 spot iron ore cargoes was counted last week, down from 41 the week before
- Chinese iron ore stockpiles grew 1% w/w. However steel production remains high, with steel inventories now 7% higher than a week ago. Coal stockpiles at Qinhuangdao came down to the lowest level seen all year – 34% down y/y
- Falling coal stockpiles in China should boost dry bulk shipping demand as we are approaching heating season. This should be positive for especially the capesizes, currently trading at a small USD 4,000/day premium in the spot market compared to the panamaxes. High steel production should also be a positive factor going, though the slightly growing iron ore stockpiles could dampen this somewhat
- In the S&P market we last week saw the 2017-built kamsarmax ‘Rich Wave’ (Tsuneishi) sold to Indian buyers for around USD 30m and the 2016-built ultramax ‘Dragongate’ (Imabar) sold to Atlantic Bulk Carriers for USD 26.75m. We value the ships at USD 28m and 22.5m respectively"
Volf
22.10.2018 kl 09:15 4696

GOGL:AVVERGET PIRATANGREP VED SOMALIA 16. OKTOBER
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Mannskap og et privat sikkerhetsteam om bord på Golden Oceans capesize "KSL Sydney" avverget 16. oktober 2018 et piratangrep ved Somalia, ifølge EU Navfor fredag.

Det meldes at det var skuddvekslinger mellom personell om bord på Golden Oceans skip og piratene, før piratene brøt av og endret kurs bort.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
mern1
22.10.2018 kl 10:28 4560

Ble ikke noen av skipene i Golden Oecan betalt med aksjer? I så fall, kan dette være årsak til lav kurs? Verftene frigjør kapital