GOGL - Oktober #2

Sa2ri
GOGL 12.10.2018 kl 18:30 24201

Bulk report – Week 41
12 October 2018

Capesize
A sharp reversal of fortunes for the big ships as the week closed after a depressed beginning. To start with drops were sudden, with the key West Australia/China rate falling over a dollar in one day, dropping Tuesday to $7.95 before climbing to $8,50 on Wednesday and finishing the week in the low $9.00s. Timecharter rates also rose sharply with a well-described 180,000dwt reaching over $20,000 daily for China delivery with West Australia rounds. Brazil loaders initially saw rates change little despite Vale allegedly fixing several ships as well as CSN. Rates from Tubarao/China most of the week failed to reach $21 but Friday saw a report of a 27-28 October cargo fixed at $21.00 and rumours of a second-half November cargo fixed at $22.50. The North Atlantic market was initially very slow, but here too rates barrelled higher despite little change in cargo volumes. A good spec 179,000dwt open Gibraltar, fixed a trans-Atlantic round at $18,000 daily with Skaw-Gibraltar redelivery, or, $20,000 daily if Cape Passero and a super eco achieved $23,750 daily from Gibraltar for a run from Bolivar to Rotterdam.

Panamax
Last week the North Atlantic firmed as sustained demand saw a clear out of most of the prompt tonnage. Several charterers took tonnage for two to three laden legs despite paying a premium, with modern Kamsarmaxes fixed at $18,000 redelivery Atlantic. The South was a little slower than previous weeks, with attention now focused on November stems, which, seemed less abundant. However, rates have so far remained steady, with well-described ships still commanding around $16,500 from Singapore. The Pacific began to look more positional, with very limited NoPac enquiry. The region has been underpinned by consistent Indonesian and Australian mineral demand. However, vessels open in the North seemed to be discounting to find cover. Period interest remained with several vessels now being taken in the Atlantic to cover both trans-Atlantic and front haul stems.

Les hele rapporten her: http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-41-3/

Kan du dele litt med oss andre hva han skrev?
hvasa
24.10.2018 kl 19:51 5585

Fikk denne mailen deg til å bli beroliget, eller motsatt? Selv mener jeg nedgangen er handelsuro hvor bulk er ekstremt utsatt, og har ingenting med ledelse å gjøre. Dog når jeg sammenligner GOGL med andre bulkselskaper, så er jo GOGL straffet ekstra hardt, noe jeg finner underlig. Tror ikke GOGL vil stige markant før det blir enighet mellom US og Kina, snarere tvert imot dessverre, men håper den har funnet bunnen nå. Har solgt meg 50% ut med altfor stort tap, men man vinner ikke alltid :(
Redigert 24.10.2018 kl 19:53 Du må logge inn for å svare

Hei, hvor stor andel av skipene brukes til frakt av kull? Jeg vet at Kina fremdeles åpner nye kullkraftverk, men generelt skal kull fases ut så rask som mulig pga. klimaendringer.
Andreas
24.10.2018 kl 21:17 5418

Jøss, er selvestet KJEPET i ferd med å slippe tvilen inn? Ta nå til vettet, mann!

Det får holde med en dobbelt topp i TA (predikert nedgang til 65,4) samt at vi i tillegg fikk markedet midt i trynet.
KJEPET
24.10.2018 kl 21:17 5422

@Sundancer
Husker du hva som skjedde i Kina i fjor vinter? Husker du at jeg spådde at Kina vil sikre seg i år? Har du sett hva Kina har importert siden august, og hvor store lagrene er i dag (er en grunn til at Panamaxratene har gått i været i det siste)? Kull er fy, men Kina bruker kull som aldri før.

Apropo: Tenker at jeg vil sende GOGL en mail i morgen, der jeg forslår at vi gjør om flåten til spiker, slik at vi får litt igjen før kursen går i 0.- :-)
KJEPET
24.10.2018 kl 21:20 5415

Til info Andreas så kjøpte en liten pott på 4000 aksjer i dag til 62,90.- Det var nok for tidlig igjen, men i det lange løp selger jeg også disse til 171.- :-)

Ser ut til at vi morgen skal innom 50.- tallet, og justert for utbyttet fra Q3, så nærmer vi oss med stormskritt 47.- som Volf nevnte for et par dager siden.
Surik
24.10.2018 kl 22:00 5325

Det var da voldsomt til fall på kort tid.
Kan ikke se at noe fundamentalt er endret her og at disse nivåer er bra kjøps mulighet?
Skipene tjener bra med penger, selskapet går i overskudd og betaler utbytte.
Ordreboken er ikke avskrekkende og som i andre shipping smerter slår IMO2020 inn 1.januar hvilket nyere, scrubber utstyrt tonnasje vil profitere på. Golden Ocean har gjort hjemme leksa de og vil tjene bra fremover.
Surik
24.10.2018 kl 22:01 5320

Shipping segmenter heter det vel.
KJEPET
24.10.2018 kl 22:14 5286

Ja, når selskapet blir én milliard mindre verdt for hver 5. børsdag så merkes det jo.......
Redigert 24.10.2018 kl 22:22 Du må logge inn for å svare
sheepman
25.10.2018 kl 00:10 5148

Hei, Nordea har nettopp tatt ned kursmålet til 72 til "hold" + at vi er midt inne i en korreksjon. Denne kan fort gå ned til midten av 40- tallet nå. I morgen blir ingen god dag!

-Lykke til!
Sa2ri
25.10.2018 kl 08:59 4673

BULK:10 CAPESIZE-SLUTNINGER ONSDAG -ARROW
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om ti capesize-slutninger onsdag, der samtlige er for jernmalmbefraktning.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group.

Fra Vest-Australia til Qingdao i Kina ble det sluttet to reiser, i tillegg til at det ble sluttet to reiser til Qingdao fra Dampier i Australia. Ellers fra Vest-Australia ble det sluttet en reise til Kaohsiung i Taiwan.

Videre ble det sluttet tre reiser fra Tubarao, Brasil, til Qingdao. Det ble også gjort en sluttning fra Tubarao til Rotterdam i Nederland.

Fra Point Noire I Kongo-Brazzaville ble det sluttet en reise til Japan.

I tillegg ble det gjort en timecharter-reise.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
KJEPET
25.10.2018 kl 09:28 4594

Takk skal du ha Sa2ri. Fint med de oppdateringene. Ser ut som verden går videre, og som du ser er det fint driv i både kull og jernmalmprisen i dag. Blir fint utbytte i Q3 og sikkert utbytte i Q4 også, og de neste 11 kvartalene :-)

Verden går videre, det som går ned kommer opp igjen, og S&P 500 future indeksen i US peker oppover etter ett stort fall i går.
Surik
25.10.2018 kl 10:06 4476

Ja de aksjene du kjøpte til 62,90 får du nok solgt med gevinst om ikke så lenge. Den som våger, vinner. Bulk skal opp.
KJEPET
25.10.2018 kl 11:44 4333

Joda, de skal nok yngle fint de, men selges ikke før i 2020. Ser at børsen er i 0 og GOGL er dårligst av samtlige shippingselskap, nærmest som vanlig. Bikker den under 60.- når dagens dårlige rater kommer?

Bra start i New York, opp 2,5%.
Sa2ri
25.10.2018 kl 16:08 4080

Ser at Old Mutual dekket inn nesten 140' aksjer i går. Synlig short er nå 981' aksjer.
25.10.2018 kl 17:44 3965

Da var jeg inne i gogl igjen!
Triton
25.10.2018 kl 19:51 3837

Tradewinds
Subscribe Log In
Cosco Bulk bauxite deal drives massive newcastlemax order

Six firm ships in potential 30-vessel series is aimed at West Africa to China export contract

Cosco Shipping Bulk, the bulker arm of Chinese shipping giant China Cosco Shipping Corp, is looking to order a series of newcastlemax bulkers to ship

Fine gronne tall for alt av bulk i USA i natt. GOGL opp 4%.
KJEPET
26.10.2018 kl 07:13 3554

Les denne. En god bekreftelse på at recovery innen shipping er på track, og vel så det

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulk-market-well-positioned-for-further-gains/

Og til deg som tror alt skal til h.... nå i verden, etter å ha lest nettavisenes krigstyper...

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/iron-ore-bull-market-2018-10/amp
Redigert 26.10.2018 kl 07:19 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
26.10.2018 kl 08:54 3439

Et lite klipp fra PAS sin Shipping Daily i dag:

"Drybulk: S&P action remains quite high
 In the midst of highly uncertain drybulk conditions we are observing a marked uptick
in S&P activity across the spectre. Now, the Mitsui-built capesize Pacific Explorer
(2007) and the Namura-built Ocean Clarion (2009) are rumoured sold for USD 21m
and 29m each. The spread here is wide, and as far as we understand neither sale is
confirmed. For reference we would value the Pacific Explorer at USD 21.9m and the
Ocean Clarion at USD 25.7m, so these are thus fairly positive data-points
 On the supramax side we understand that Indonesian buyers are close to picking up
the 2009-built Nikkei Dragon (also Japan-built) at USD 13.05m, one million below our
valuation. Furthermore, a couple of Chinese-built ships (capesize and panamax) are
also said to be sold – at fairly significant discounts to the Japanese-built tonnage"
Sa2ri
26.10.2018 kl 18:29 3195

26 October 2018

Capesize
A market of two halves for most of the week with rates in the Atlantic firming and easing in the East for most of the week, but then, West Australia/China staged a recovery, with a rumour $9.00 was done as well as $8.90, up from $8.40, fixed 24 hours earlier. Timecharter rates appeared to be moving, with a 2011 175,000dwt fixing from Richards Bay to South Korea at $20,000 plus almost a one million dollar ballast bonus. Brazil/China trading has been spasmodic, but at least many of the early ballasters have been absorbed with the Tubarao rate for second half November nearer to the mid $21.00s, with $22 and $23 paid for 1-10 December. Rates also firmed from Brazil to the Continent with trading more active with a Tubarao/Rotterdam fixed near $10.00 and this route attracting Atlantic tonnage. From Colombia, there was talk that the rate was moving above $10.50. Front haul rates for ships open in the North hovered around the $34,000 to $36,000 daily for the run East.

Panamax
It was a week of falling rates in all areas. The Atlantic saw owners with early November ships in the North discounting to fix quick round voyages, with rates paying in the mid-to-high teens for Baltic rounds. South American trade has also slowed with first half November tonnage discounting last done to fix and more failing evident. A 2006-built Kamsarmax failed at $16,300 and $630,000 for 5-7 November for a trip to South-East Asia. A long list of tonnage combined with a slowdown in cargoes from Australia, Indonesia and the NoPac, saw rates slide. Rates for Kamsarmaxes fixing NoPac rounds were barely in the mid $12,000s, while a 6-year-old 75,000dwt agreed $10,000 daily for a trip from Yuhuan via East Coast Australia to China. Period trading was in short supply, but a well-described 82,000dwt failed on charter-party details at $15,500 for a year, with South China delivery early November.

http://thebalticbriefing.com/bulk-report/bulk-report-week-43-2/

God helg.
Kbkristi
26.10.2018 kl 19:03 3141

Front haul rates for ships open in the North hovered around the $34,000 to $36,000 daily for the run East.
Ja, får vi sånne rater framover, så må mitt estimat for Q4 endres dramatisk.
God helg :)
Sa2ri
29.10.2018 kl 09:10 2687

BULK:10 CAPESIZE-SLUTNINGER FREDAG -ARROW
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om ti capesize-slutninger fredag, der ni er for jernmalmbefraktning og en er for frakt av kull.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group.

Fra Tubarao i Brasil er det sluttet tre reiser, der to går til Qingdao i Kina og en går til El Dekheil i Egypt.

Videre er det sluttet to reiser fra Dampier, Australia, til Qingdao, samt en slutning fra Port Hedland, Australia, til Qingdao.

Det er også gjort to slutninger fra Vest-Australia til Qingdao.

Fra Saldanha Bay i Sør-Afrika er det sluttet en reise til Qingdao.

Ellers er det gjort en slutning fra Richards Bay til Yonghung i Sør-Korea.

Det meldes også om to timecharter-reiser.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Sa2ri
29.10.2018 kl 09:57 2607

"Svovelreguleringene som kommer i 2020 har hatt noen løse tråder, som nå har blitt løst opp.
Det var uavklart hvrovidt det ville bli noen slags overgangsperiode til IMO2020, og hvordan alt skulle håndheves. Diskusjonene pågikk gjennom hele forrige uke, og nå ser bildet klart ut.
Det bilr null overgangsperiode, og skip som seiler med drivstoff med mer enn 0.5% svovel (uten scrubber) vil bli bannlyst.
Det store spørsmålet er hvorvidt det vil være nok drivstoffproduksjo klart til da, skiftet er tross alt rimelig stort, 3.5% svovel til 0.5%.
McKinsey sin analyse er god lesning, for de som skulle være interessert."

https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/imo-2020-and-the-outlook-for-marine-fuels
Sa2ri
30.10.2018 kl 07:58 2342

BULK:8 CAPESIZE-SLUTNINGER MANDAG -ARROW
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Det ble rapportert om åtte capesize-slutninger mandag, der syv er for jernmalmbefraktning og en er for frakt av kull.

Det fremgår av en slutningsliste fra Arrow Shipbroking Group.

Fra Vest-Australia til Qingdao i Kina er det sluttet tre reiser, mens det fra Dampier i Australia er sluttet en reise til Qingdao.

Videre er det sluttet en reise fra Buchanan, Liberia, til Lanshan i Kina, samt en reise fra Tubarao, Brasil, til Gijon, Spania.

Det er også sluttet en reise fra Port Hedland i Australia til Kwangyang i Sør-Korea, i tillegg til en reise fra Gladstone, Australia, til Younghung i Sør-Korea.

Det meldes også om to timecharter-reiser.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70
Sa2ri
31.10.2018 kl 07:37 2076

By Apostolos Rompopoulos
Oil Products
Since the IMO’s 2020 global cap on sulphur in marine fuels is coming into force, ship-owners have to decide whether they will operate using emissions compliant fuels, or ensure that emissions are cleaned using an exhaust gas scrubber. We saw that even though scrubber retrofits started slowly, mo-mentum has been building up as owners that are time-chartering their ves-sels stand to benefit.
There are currently reported more than 1,600 ships with confirmed scrubber projects when back in 2015 the number was in the low 200. Most of the recently singed projects are for bulk and oil/chemical ships, with bulk carrier retrofits in first place, oil/chemical tankers in second and containers in third place.
As per Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB’s (SEB) IMO 2020 Report, it is esti-mated that less than 2,000 vessels will have been fitted with scrubbers by the implementation date, while a significant price delta between HFO and LSGO is also projected, providing the scrubber installed vessels with a significant short-term advantage post 2020. With most reports out there highlighting this advantage one would normally wonder why aren’t more owners rushing to install scrubbers at the moment.
We understand that this “wait and see” approach is compounded by the fact that owners pay for scrubbers (CAPEX) and charterers pay for fuel (OPEX), and that if most vessels are operating without scrubbers, charter market prices will largely be set by those vessels factoring in higher fuel costs without a competitive disadvantage.
According to the same analysis by SEB, those moving to install scrubbers now will be at a competitive advantage compared to their non-scrubber counterparts in the first few years after the implementation. These first movers will likely be able to charge substantial “freight rate premiums” to account for the fuel related savings while operating the vessel. These premi-ums are projected to allow for a quick payback on the initial investment as others are focusing on scrubbers.
We have seen Koch fixing the M/T New Champion (310kdwt, blt ’18 China) from China Merchants Energy Shipping for two years at $29,750/day with an option to upgrade the ship with scrubber installation and increase the daily rate up to $35,000/day.
MSI has also calculated that in 2020, the value of the time charter premium for a Capesize vessel fitted with a scrubber will be $12,100/day, for a Pana-max vessel it would be $6,800/day, $6,300/day for an Ultramax and $5,100/day for a Handysize. MSI also predicted increased asset values for tankers with scrubbers given that the time-charter premium exists.
As the 2020 deadline approaches it becomes clearer that vessels with scrub-bers will definitely benefit with substantial premiums, while the extend of the period during which these premiums will apply remains key to the com-petitive advantage the scrubber investment can offer. As far as bigger ships in either sector are concerned, the installation of a scrubber is considered a no brainer for most, while when it comes to smaller sizes things are not as straightforward, with slow steaming slowly but steadily starting to become a topic of interest as a result.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Intermodal-Report-Week-43-2018.pdf
Sa2ri
31.10.2018 kl 07:39 2072

India: Coal imports surge on domestic short-supply
in Dry Bulk Market,Freight News 31/10/2018

Shortage of thermal coal supply in India has pushed imports up to 85 million tonnes (mt) in the first half of the current fiscal compared to 75 mt logged in the same period last year.

In fact, imports by non-regulated sectors such as cement, aluminium and steel accounted for about 68 per cent of the incremental thermal coal imports during the period.

The rise in imports comes when Coal India has achieved a double-digit production growth of 10.6 per cent in the first half of the fiscal, a feat which has not been seen in recent history. Notwithstanding the healthy production growth, domestic coal supply significantly fell short due to strong recovery in power demand, lower hydropower generation and healthy growth in production levels from non-regulated consuming sectors.

As on September 30, the 22 non-pithead power plants had less than 7 days of coal stock. During the last monsoon season, domestic coal production slowed to 3.8 per cent and 3.2 per cent in September and August, against 10.6 per cent in July and 13.2 per cent in June, leading to coal stocks at power plants deteriorating from 21 mt in July to 15.8 mt in September.

Jayanta Roy, Senior Vice-President, ICRA, said given the fall in domestic coal availability and the healthy demand from coal- consuming sectors, spot e-auction premia reached 102 per cent in September, surpassing the level of 95 per cent logged in October 2017, when coal stocks at power plants were at their lowest levels.

With Coal India’s pithead stock running critically low at about 18.4 mt as on September 30 against a higher level of 55.5 mt as on March 31 the central miner’s ability to ramp up production would be critical to close the gap between coal demand and supply.

“Apart from rising import dependence, a steep increase of over 25 per cent in seaborne thermal coal prices during the current fiscal, a sharp depreciation of the rupee and rising spot e-auction coal prices are estimated to have led to a 20-34 per cent rise in coal costs in last seven months for companies depending on e-auction and imported coal,” said Roy.
Source: The Hindu Business Line

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/india-coal-imports-surge-on-domestic-short-supply/
RSinvest
31.10.2018 kl 09:14 1949

Har hatt GOGL ute av lupen ens stund, men ser nå at den er tilbake på lavt 60-tall. Noen som kan forklare dette? Dette må være penger på gaten skulle man tro? Om ikke det er noe jeg ikke har fått med meg??
KJEPET
31.10.2018 kl 09:47 1498

Ja, under normale omstendigheter er dette penger på gaten. Men nå har markedet bestemt seg for at Kina går konk og GOGL er verst stilt i klassen, og vil styre mot konkurs neste år. Om du tror på dette scenario så må du gjøre som resten, og selge så fort du kan, når de få kjøperne som nå er ferdigkjøpt for dagen. Som du ser bygges selgersiden nå kraftig opp, og kjøpersiden skrumper inn. En helt vanlig dag i GOGL.

Om du er av en annen oppfatning, som meg, kan du meske deg med billige aksjer, uten å bli forstyrret :-)
RSinvest
31.10.2018 kl 09:56 1468

Hehe, Kina konk?? Neppe.
Tilogmed det stolte kinesiske folket har vett til å gi seg i handelskrigen før det nærmer seg et slikt scenario.
Sist jeg sjekket var det vel fortsatt vekst i Kina til tross.
GOGL vil få heftig boost når handelskrigen opphører.
KJEPET
31.10.2018 kl 10:05 1446

Selvsagt går dette helt fint. Men som sagt starter nå dagens nedgang i GOGL, mens vi går inn i november på rundt 20.000/d i cape. Vi får trøste oss med utbyttene de neste årene:-)
RSinvest
31.10.2018 kl 10:36 1378

Satser på vi trenger lite trøst fremover Kjepet. Med rater på 20k så burde markedet ta til fornuft. Etter mitt syn ligger det an til reversering i dag. Får se om vi får bekreftelse på dette ila. uken.