China’s September iron ore imports rise ahead of winter curbs
in Dry Bulk Market,Freight News 13/10/2018


China’s iron ore imports rose to their highest level in four months in September, according to customs data issued on Friday, as steel mills ramped up output ahead of winter production restrictions.
Arrivals of steelmaking ingredient iron ore increased to 93.47 million tonnes last month from 89.35 million tonnes in August, but were down from a record 102.83 million tonnes a year ago, according to data from General Administration of Customs.
September is typically a high season for construction activity in China, with increased demand for both steel products and raw materials.
Earlier China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) data showed that average daily crude steel production at its member mills rose to 1.98 million tonnes over Sept. 1-20, up from 1.91 million tonnes in August and 1.94 million tonnes in July.
“Production restrictions last month were not very strict, so steel mills seized the chance to ramp up output before more intense rules kick in,” said Wang Yilin, an analyst at Sinosteel Futures.
Blast furnace utilisation rates at steel mills across China reached 68.23 percent in mid-September, the highest in two months, and have been hovering around 68 percent since then, according to data from Mysteel consultancy, as mills rushed to boost output before the production restrictions kick in.
The environment ministry has scrapped blanket cuts from its final winter anti-pollution plan, allowing local authorities to decide the rates and timeframes for individual cuts.
Top steelmaking city Tangshan has started production curbs from Oct. 1, while Handan city – also in smog-prone Hebei province – plans to enforce cuts from Nov. 1.
The winter anti-pollution campaign may also expand to broader regions this year, as governments in the Yangtze River Delta, including the No.2 steel producing province of Jiangsu, work on a similar plan to northern areas.
That could crimp operations at steel mills and activity at downstream users, further curbing demand for steelmaking raw materials including iron ore.
“Steel mills will keep only small inventory when winter cuts kick in, meaning their restocking demand will be dynamic,” said Wang.
Vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv suggests China will import about 83.46 million tonnes of seaborne iron ore in October, a slight pullback from 85.63 million in September.
For the first nine months this year, China bought a total of 803.34 million tonnes of iron ore, customs data showed.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Muyu Xu and Tom Daly; editing by Joseph Radford and Richard Pullin)

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/chinas-september-iron-ore-imports-rise-ahead-of-winter-curbs/

Endelig er sesongen sparket i gang for fullt. Ser vi ny fin oppgang i ratene i dag?

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/capesize-market-ends-week-with-a-bang/

EDIT: Ser ut som det har gått litt for seg i helga for Hegnar journalisten, mulig han er short :-)?

https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/10/De-norske-aksjene-i-USA-og-Canada11
GOGL ned 14% og Equinor ned 35% på fredag.

Ny herlig dag med ratestigning i Kina. Blir nesten litt patetisk å senke kursen dag ut og dag inn, på lavt volum, når ratene peker nordover. Litt påfyll i dag på 72,10.- :-)

He he rart de ikke retter opp.. det gikk jo opp. Noen som har rate-nyheter da?

Enig, har plukket en del jeg også. Her ligger det VIRKELIG penger på gata for hvermannsen

Ser at newbuilding prisene stiger fint, og prisen på "Bulk Asia", som ble solgt forrige uke, lå vel også godt over 5 år gamle caper :-)

Ser at man har strukket strikken til det ytterste når det gjelder skraping i år. Kun to(!) panamaxer og 12 caper er sendt til skraphaugen (mot 49 og 28 i fjor på samme tidspunkt). To år med minimum av skraping tipper jeg nå går mot slutten. Skrapingen må opp igjen for å få mer fart i ratene.

Hvorfor skrape en gammel, nedbetalt balje som tjener penger som gress? Nånei, her blir det ikke skrapt bulkskip før markedet har snudd og ratene har vært under BE en god stund. Bare se på tankmarkedet de siste 2 årene.

Du har nok rett i det Surik. Tank er vel der bulk var i 2014 eller deromkring. Fortsatt litt skip som skal leveres i nærmeste fremtid (følger ikke så godt med på tank må jeg innrømme). Fordelen med bulk nå er jo lav ordrebok, og at IMO2020 gjør usikkerheten for kontrahering av nye skip svært usikkert (https://splash247.com/why-youd-have-to-be-mad-to-order-a-new-bulker-today/)

Så er det bare å smøre seg med tålmodighet, og vente på at markedet skal ta seg sakte med sikkert opp. Vale opprettholder guidingen for både 2018 og 2019. Det lover godt:-)

Ser det ble dekket inn en god slump av shorten på gårsdagens liste: https://ssr.finanstilsynet.no/Home/Details/BMG396372051
Når fyker vi oppover mot 80-tallet igjen??

Kjepet, ser ikke ut som du treffer på dette:
KJEPET
18.09.2018 kl 13:32
5293
Etter nesten en måned med kontinuering fall i caperatene, ser det nå ut som vi har bunnet ut for denne gang. Da får vi nok stigende rater fremover. Når passerer vi $30.000/d? 22. oktober er mitt tips :-)

Nei, det har du helt rett i Gordon. Ser ut til å bli totalt skivebom. De tre VLOC'ene som tok levering nå i høst satte en effektiv stopper for det. Men tror fortsatt det kommer, en dog litt utover i november:-)

STÅL: GLOBAL ETTERSPØRSEL VIL NÅ 1.681,2M TONN I 2019 (+1,4% FRA 2018)
Oslo (TDN Direkt): Den globale ståletterspørselen vil nå 1.681,2 millioner tonn i 2019, som er opp 1,4 prosent fra 2018-nivået, som nå ventes å nå 1.657,9 millioner tonn.

Det fremkommer av World Steel Associations Short Range Outlook-rapport, tirsdag.

"Selv om styrken i innhentingen av ståletterspørselen sett i 2017 ble dratt over i 2018 har risikoen økt. Økte handelsspenninger og volatile valutabevegelser øker usikkerheten. Normalisering av pengepolitikken i USA og EU kan også komme til å påvirke valutaene fra fremvoksende økonomier", heter det i rapporten.

Knyttet til Kina ventes det at fortsatte økonomiske rebalanseringstiltak og tøffere miljøreguleringer vil føre til oppbremsing av ståletterspørselen mot slutten av 2018 og 2019.

Det ventes en etterspørsel fra Kina på 781,0 millioner tonn i både 2018 og 2019, opp fra 2017-nivået på 736,8 millioner tonn.

Foreningen mener nedsiderisikoen kommer fra de pågående handelsspenningene med USA og en oppbremsende global økonomi, men dersom kinesiske myndigheter beslutter å bruke stimulerende tiltak vil ståletterspørselen i 2019 bli løftet.

HH, finans@tdn.no

TDN Direkt, +47 21 95 60 70

La oss håpe det:)

Dry Bulkers’ Prices Moving on Higher Ground as Market Sentiment Improves
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 16/10/2018

As the dry bulk market sentiment is improving, on the back of positive fundamentals and a significant rise in freight rates, so are asset prices. Shipbroker Intermodal is taking note of the recent trends in sales prices of various dry bulk classes. In its latest weekly report, Intermodal said that “during the end of last month the BHSI was hovering around 630 points, while the last observed sale on a 10-yr old Japanese Handy was the M/V Van Imabari (28kdwt Shimanami blt’08), which was sold to Greek Buyers for USD 8.5m. About a year ago and while the BHSI stood at similar levels, the sale of the Japanese M/V ex- Laser Ace(28kdwt Shimanami blt’07) also to Greek buyers, materialized at USD 7.7 m. Thus, with the index at similar levels, the price of a 10-yr old Japanese Handy has shown an increase of 10 %. I would say that this is due to strong sentiment among owners operating in this segment and if freight rates remain at healthy levels we will see further appreciation on asset prices”.

According to Intermodal’s SnP broker, Mr. Ilias M. Lalaounis, “as far as 10-yr old Supramax units are concerned and while the BSI ended last week at 1,197 points, we had the sale of the M/V Medi Firenze (58kdwt Cebu blt’08) at USD 13.3m with the vessels dry docking due in December. This is the same price that Nova Marine paid for the smaller and older ship, the M/V ex- Darya Vishnu (56kdwt Mitsui blt’06) back in March 2018, despite the fact that the index is now standing roughly 10% above March levels. Therefore, one could argue that this segment is nowadays experiencing a slowdown in SnP activity compared to last March, with a possible softening in asset values around the corner. In my view though, this is strictly due to several ships being up for sale in this segment, which gives confidence to firm buyers who are currently lowballing and searching for a good deal instead of competing and pushing the barrier higher. Currently, focus has shifted on the M/V Triton Seagull (56kdwt Mitsui blt’07) and the M/V Queen Halo (58kdwt Tsuneishi Cebu blt’10) that received offers yesterday and today respectively”, the broker said.

Lalaounis added that “the Panamax sector we noticed this week the sale of the M/V Double Prosperity (76kdwt Imabari blt’05) to clients based in Qatar for USD 10.6m. We feel that this depicts the low buying appetite for similar vessels, while there is the exception of traditional buyers in this segment, who are currently looking to quickly take advantage of current soft prices. Our focus is now on the M/V AOM Milena (76kdwt Shin Kasado blt’09) that is receiving offers today. As in the case of Supramaxes, the softness in asset prices can only be explained by the abrupt oversupply of sales candidates that came for sale late in the summer in combination to the handful of quiet buyers who cautiously waited to see a market reaction coming into Q4. After all average earnings for Panamaxes and Supramaxes are currently up 15% and 22% compared to mid-summer”.

“I am confident that if rates continue to rise and we get a healthy finish throughout Q4 this will convince hesitant buyers to go the extra mile and come on board ships boosting competition as a result. It will also alleviate hesitant financial stakeholders to regain confidence in the market, which should eventually lead to an increase of available finance. As a result, new eager buyers are expected to come forward, pushing existing buyers to offer higher in order to finally manage to get their hands on the ship they are looking for. All in all, given the current trend, it might not take too long until asset prices once again start moving north”, Intermodal’s analyst said.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/dry-bulkers-prices-moving-on-higher-ground-as-market-sentiment-improves/

"Hører" rykter om at det skal lastes opp panamaxer i november med soyabønner fra US til China? I såfall er det gull :-)

Flott i så fall! Men hvor ble det av handelskrigen?

Kanskje noe av svaret ligger her:
American soybeans, however, help feed the growing middle class in China, where soy-fed pork has become a mainstay of the diet. That need will become more acute this fall when soybeans from Brazil – the world’s other major producer – grow scarce, analysts say.
“China is going to need U.S. soybeans come the fourth quarter,” says Mike Dawson, an analyst at Sterling Marketing, an agricultural research firm. “I think that as we get closer … China will become far more amicable” to a trade agreement.

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/08/30/us-china-trade-war-china-need-soybeans-could-spur-deal/1136570002/

Jepp, og nå ser det ut til å være en realitet. Ryktene sier at to skip skal lastes i november med bønner til Kina. Det er det nok mange som ikke har fått med seg det ser det ut til.

To skip med bønner i november? Nei, det hadde ikke jeg fått med meg.
Jeg registrerer imidlertid at RSI er lav og Gogl ligger og småspretter på teknisk støtte. Hvis ratene snur opp nå, kan det bli hyggelig.

Regner med du tenker på capen, som lagger fortsatt. Panamax ratene har jo ikke vært høyere enn på 5 år, så der skuffer GOGL inn mengder med dollars hver dag :-)

Ja, jeg tenkte på capesizeratene. Stusset litt over kun to skip med bønner i november. Er ikke det litt lite? Regner med at du snakker om panamax-skip.

Det som det må fokuseres på her er at import av soya til Kina fra USA gjenopptas til tross for handels-kluss mellom de to landene. Et svært viktig signal.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/drycargo/1608978/vale-hits-production-high-with-105m-tonnes-in-third-quarter

Det går bra for Vale åpenbart, kan vel ikke være negativt for Capesize det. Blir spennende å se utviklingen videre i q4.

Slenger med denne vedrørende BHP også.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-bhp-billiton-ltd-output/bhps-first-quarter-iron-ore-output-jumps-8-percent-cuts-copper-guidance-idUKKCN1MQ30T

Second hand bulkers still more popular than newbuildings
in Dry Bulk Market,Hellenic Shipping News 17/10/2018

In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that it was “a relatively quiet week in the newbuilding market, with the level of reported activity scaling back slightly. Despite the small number of new contracts, things were still relatively interesting. In the dry bulk front, a ramp up in interest from Far Eastern owners was seen, as 4 new orders were placed for 12 Ultramax and 2 Kamsarmax vessels, all within Chinese yards. Further orders are expected to be noted during the next couple of months given the current trends noted in terms of freight rates. On the tanker side, there was only one new contact slipping through this past week, with the Iranian state oil company contracting 3 new Aframax tankers from its local shipbuilder. In terms of the other main sectors, we witnessed an order for 4 feedermax containerships from Japanese interests, while an order was also placed at Samsung yet another LNG carrier. As a result of the positive momentum noted in recent months, we should continue to see a fair flow of new orders emerging over the coming months, while prices have started to reflect a more aggressive and bullish attitude being present amongst shipbuilders now”.

In a separate weekly note, Clarkson Platou Hellas said that “in Dry, Huangpu Wenchong have announced an order for a further pair of 120K Mini capebulkers for CSSC Shipping. The 5th and 6th vessels in the series that have been contracted against employment to Cargill and are expected to deliver in late 2020. AVIC Leasing meanwhile, have placed an order for 4 firm 63K Ultramaxes at Yangzhou Dayang Shipyard. This is the former Sinopacific facility and this order follows on from the recent domestic orders placed at the yard. Two of these new orders are expected to deliver within the end of 2019 and remaining two in 1H 2020. In Gas meanwhile, clients of Thenamaris have ordered a further one x 174,000 cbm LNG Carrier at HHI with delivery due in 2021. This will be the second in their series on order at the yard. Finally, interests associated with the Fredriksen group have ordered a pair of 174,000 CBM LNG carriers at Hyundai Samho with delivery expected in 1H 2021. These vessels will be built with x-DF engines, similar to the Thenamaris order”.

Meanwhile, in the S&P market, Allied added that “on the dry side, another week with the market holding at fairly good activity levels, though relatively slower then what was seen a week prior. The majority of reported volume seemed to have been focused on the larger sizes with Capes and Panamaxes attracting most of the buying interest being seen of late. We have also seen a considerable portion of buying interest attracted to more modern tonnage, possibly taking on the lower risk involved with regards to any conversions and works that need to be done in order to comply with the new emissions regulations. On the tanker side, activity fell back to the average levels we had been seeing during the first half of the year. Most of the deals that emerged this past week seemed to have focused on the product tanker segments, while given the current trends being noted in the freight market for some of the larger crude oil carriers, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if we started to see buying interest shift here”.

Similarly, VesselsValue said this week that Capesize and Handy values have remained stable, with slight softening in Panamax and Supramax tonnage. “Capesize Bulk Asia (181,400 DWT, Jul 2014, Koyo Dock) sold to Eastern Pacific Shipping for USD 40.5 mil, VV Value 39.68 mil. Post Panamax Ikan Kedewas (88,300 DWT, Sep 2006, Imabari) sold to Minoa Marine for USD 12.5 mil, VV Value USD 12.87 mil. Buyer waived inspection. Panamax New Herald (72,900 DWT, Sep 1997, Daedong) sold for USD 5.0 mil, VV Value USD 5.98 mil. Supramax Indigo Evolution (55,600 DWT, Oct 2010, Mitsui Ichihara) sold for USD 15.5 mil, VV Value USD 15.87 mil. Handy BC Voula Seas (28,500 DWT, Jun 2002, Kanda) was sold for USD 6.5 mil, VV Value USD 6.41 million”, the ships’ valuations expert said.

Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/second-hand-bulkers-still-more-popular-than-newbuildings/

Full gass i nesten alle shippingaksjene i dag. Godt og se at gode rater gir uttelling for aksjonærene.

Tuller du, GOGL er jo helt dau.

Alle shippingaksjer (foruten GOGL) er jo godt i pluss i dag :-)

Star Bulk opp 8.6%. Gogl litt ned.. noen som skjønner noe av det som skjer? :-)

Hva som gjør GOGL til den minst likte shippingaksjen er muligens styrelederens holdning til scrubbere. https://www.hegnar.no/Nyheter/Boers-finans/2018/08/John-Fredriksen-Bare-tull. Han er vel snart den eneste i bransjen som mener dette. Alle de andre store bulkselskapene har kunngjort av de installere scrubbere på sine skip. Det er nok ikke miljøkampen JF er mest kjent for.

Heldigvis er resten av ledelsen på linje med resten av verden og sett nødvendigheten av scrubbere, og er godt forberedt på IMO2020.

Det er bemerkelsesverdig hvordan GOGL holdes nede siste uken. Ethvert lite forsøk på oppsprett resulterer i etterfølgende nedgang. Jeg er spent på 3Q-resultatet. Enten er det noe rævgalt fundamentalt sett (lite sannsynlig?) eller så kommer vel snart tidenes reaksjon oppover.

Star bulk har ingen omsetning. Det var én aksje omsatt på +8%, det skal ingenting til for å flytte kursen der.

Kan det være at vi bommer på at dry bulk markedet ikke er i bedring allikevel.....?

Tja, 5 years high på Panamax sier jo litt om bedringen. Den volatile capen skuffer stort, og derfor krakker GOGL. Alle sitter på gjerdet og venter på oppgangen i Capen. Så lenge oppgangen uteblir kommer vil GOGL selges i bøtter og spann. Det er ingen kjøpere til å ta imot. Ikke mer enn 6 måneder siden GOGL ble handlet til 56.-, så her svinger det. Både Q3 og Q4 gir utbytter, men siden ikke capen stiger så vil folket fortsette å selge uansett pris (ser det ut til).

Nydelig. Opp over hele linja :-)
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/weekly-dry-time-charter-estimates-october-17-2018/

(Men for all del, ikke se fremover. Snart ser vi 60-tallet igjen)

Noen som tror på denne Investtechanalysen fra i går morges?

Golden Ocean Group Limited (GOGL) falt moderate 2.03% og sluttet på 72.40 kroner. Aksjen har med dette falt sju av de siste ni dagene. Aksjen utløste et salgssignal ved bruddet ned gjennom støtten ved 72.80 kroner i en dobbel-topp-formasjon. En videre nedgang til 65.42 kroner i løpet av to måneder indikeres.

Ja, hvorfor ikke? TA tilsier akkurat det. Mens Panamaxratene kan feire 8-years high hvilken dag som helst :-)

Investtech er kun et verktøy for de store pengene, når short skal dekkes inn/billige aksjer skal handles, så kommer den type analyse. Motsatt så kommer de med kjøpsanbefaling når noen større skal ut... Og så sitter blårussen med masse penger og styrer kurs på dager med lav omsetning, og kjører kurs og TA som det passer, og klapper hverandre på ryggen over at de er så flinke!