DNO, DNB med oppdatert analyse, kursmål Kr 20
DNO Powering ahead with positive news We have upgraded DNO from HOLD to BUY following positive news flow and raised our NAV-based target price to NOK20 (19.6) after a change of analyst. We believe positive operational developments at Peshkabir such as strong production and deeper oil/water contact merit significant increases to reserve estimates supportive of our NOK20/share NAV; and with the highest discount to its NAV since early 2018, we see 29% upside potential from the current share price.
Operational growth on track leaves upside potential to production. After a positive update on Peshkabir, DNO has already reached its year-end 50k/boed production target. With current combined production in Kurdistan at 130k/boed, we believe there is upside potential versus our current estimate of 125k/boed in Q4 production. With the addition on the Peshkabir-8 well before year-end and additional wells on Tawke, we are comfortable with our 2019e production at 140k/boed.
We expect positive reserve revisions supportive of our NOK20 NAV. The Peshkabir-6 well has established a deeper Cretaceous oil/water contact level than previously estimated, which is positive for the 2P reserves estimate at Peshkabir. We believe the strong production performance and deeper oil/water contact warrant a significant lift in the 75mmboe 2P reserves at Peshkabir. In our NAV we have included a 163mmboe (net to DNO) reserves with a 70% probability for Peshkabir, which equals NOK3.3/share of our NOK20 NAV estimate.
Largest NAV discount since early 2018. At a P/NAV of 78%, today’s P/NAV also represents the highest discount since a short period in late 2017/early 2018, which supports upside potential of 29% from the current share price, in our view.
Upgraded to BUY as we see several potential positive catalysts towards year-end for DNO and following its underperformance versus its closest peers since April. We have raised our risked-NAV based target price from NOK19.6 to NOK20 after tweaking our assumptions. Near-term, we see potential for further upside with increased reserves at Peshkabir, as our unrisked NAV is NOK24.1, as well as Baeshiqa exploration.
Operational growth on track leaves upside potential to production. After a positive update on Peshkabir, DNO has already reached its year-end 50k/boed production target. With current combined production in Kurdistan at 130k/boed, we believe there is upside potential versus our current estimate of 125k/boed in Q4 production. With the addition on the Peshkabir-8 well before year-end and additional wells on Tawke, we are comfortable with our 2019e production at 140k/boed.
We expect positive reserve revisions supportive of our NOK20 NAV. The Peshkabir-6 well has established a deeper Cretaceous oil/water contact level than previously estimated, which is positive for the 2P reserves estimate at Peshkabir. We believe the strong production performance and deeper oil/water contact warrant a significant lift in the 75mmboe 2P reserves at Peshkabir. In our NAV we have included a 163mmboe (net to DNO) reserves with a 70% probability for Peshkabir, which equals NOK3.3/share of our NOK20 NAV estimate.
Largest NAV discount since early 2018. At a P/NAV of 78%, today’s P/NAV also represents the highest discount since a short period in late 2017/early 2018, which supports upside potential of 29% from the current share price, in our view.
Upgraded to BUY as we see several potential positive catalysts towards year-end for DNO and following its underperformance versus its closest peers since April. We have raised our risked-NAV based target price from NOK19.6 to NOK20 after tweaking our assumptions. Near-term, we see potential for further upside with increased reserves at Peshkabir, as our unrisked NAV is NOK24.1, as well as Baeshiqa exploration.
Litt mer fra analysen:
Recent developments supportive of our NAV Upgraded to BUY on positive news flow We have upgraded DNO to BUY (HOLD) and increased our NAV-based target price from NOK19.6 to NOK20, after tweaking our estimates and NAV. In our view, the most important recent developments – such as strong production at Peshkabir along with a higher spot oil price – is supportive of our NAV and we see re-rating potential up to our NAV, suggesting 29% upside potential from the current share price. Some of the key recent developments are: Production development implies upside potential Peshkabir year-end target of 50,000boed (gross) already reached.
Peshkabir-7 is producing over 10,000bopd from nine Cretaceous zones.
Four other wells at Peshkabir now produce at a combined rate of close to 40,000bopd following a workover at Peshkabir-3, which boosted production from that well from 8,000bopd to 11,000bopd.
The Peshkabir-8 well (spud in late August) is being drilled with the target of further production.
Tawke field gross production is just above 80,000boed (gross) after drilling activity at the Tawke field recommenced.
The Tawke-50 shallow Jeribe well has been drilled to a depth of 320 metres and is scheduled to be brought in to production in mid-October.
The Tawke-49 Cretaceous well is being drilled and is due to be completed in late October.
Two additional Tawke wells (one each in the Jeribe and the Cretaceous) are planned to be drilled by year-end.
We forecast 125k/boed production for Q4, which is below the current run-rate of 130k/boed, and with the additional wells coming in Q4e we believe this is supportive for our 2019 production at 140k/boed. Reserves at Peshkabir expected to be increased at year-end Peshkabir-5 has proven the westward extension of the field, with an increase in proven and probable reserves expected to follow.
Peshkabir-6 has established a deeper Cretaceous oil/water contact level than expected. Further testing is under way, including test production of several producing zones.
Peshkabir-9 well is due to be spud in November, with the aim of testing the eastern extension of the field.
We believe the strong production performance and deeper oil/water contact warrant a significant upward revision to the 75mmboe 2P reserves at Peshkabir at year-end. In our NAV of NOK20 we have included 163mmboe (net to DNO) upside potential with a 70% probability for Peshkabir, which equals NOK3.3/share of our NAV estimate.
Recent developments supportive of our NAV Upgraded to BUY on positive news flow We have upgraded DNO to BUY (HOLD) and increased our NAV-based target price from NOK19.6 to NOK20, after tweaking our estimates and NAV. In our view, the most important recent developments – such as strong production at Peshkabir along with a higher spot oil price – is supportive of our NAV and we see re-rating potential up to our NAV, suggesting 29% upside potential from the current share price. Some of the key recent developments are: Production development implies upside potential Peshkabir year-end target of 50,000boed (gross) already reached.
Peshkabir-7 is producing over 10,000bopd from nine Cretaceous zones.
Four other wells at Peshkabir now produce at a combined rate of close to 40,000bopd following a workover at Peshkabir-3, which boosted production from that well from 8,000bopd to 11,000bopd.
The Peshkabir-8 well (spud in late August) is being drilled with the target of further production.
Tawke field gross production is just above 80,000boed (gross) after drilling activity at the Tawke field recommenced.
The Tawke-50 shallow Jeribe well has been drilled to a depth of 320 metres and is scheduled to be brought in to production in mid-October.
The Tawke-49 Cretaceous well is being drilled and is due to be completed in late October.
Two additional Tawke wells (one each in the Jeribe and the Cretaceous) are planned to be drilled by year-end.
We forecast 125k/boed production for Q4, which is below the current run-rate of 130k/boed, and with the additional wells coming in Q4e we believe this is supportive for our 2019 production at 140k/boed. Reserves at Peshkabir expected to be increased at year-end Peshkabir-5 has proven the westward extension of the field, with an increase in proven and probable reserves expected to follow.
Peshkabir-6 has established a deeper Cretaceous oil/water contact level than expected. Further testing is under way, including test production of several producing zones.
Peshkabir-9 well is due to be spud in November, with the aim of testing the eastern extension of the field.
We believe the strong production performance and deeper oil/water contact warrant a significant upward revision to the 75mmboe 2P reserves at Peshkabir at year-end. In our NAV of NOK20 we have included 163mmboe (net to DNO) upside potential with a 70% probability for Peshkabir, which equals NOK3.3/share of our NAV estimate.
oto1
15.10.2018 kl 09:34
2473
Hvordan de kan "tweke" sitt estimat og få 125k i produksjon i 4Q er for meg en gåte.
DNO produserer i begynnelsen av 4Q 130k fat/d ihht siste melding.
- En jeribe brønn er allerede kommet online (1-2k fat/d ekstra)
- Pesh 6 kommer snart online (oktober), 5-10k fat/d ekstra.
- Pesh 8 kommer i produksjon i begynnelsen av november (10k fat/d ekstra)
- Tawke 49 kommer online i november (5k fat/d ekstra)
- En jeribe brønn til kommer online i november (1-2k fat/d ekstra).
- Workover på 2 brønner på tawke ferdig i løpet av oktober (erstatter decline)
Jaggu skal det bli mye decline om produksjonen skal falle 5k i 4Q.
DNO produserer i begynnelsen av 4Q 130k fat/d ihht siste melding.
- En jeribe brønn er allerede kommet online (1-2k fat/d ekstra)
- Pesh 6 kommer snart online (oktober), 5-10k fat/d ekstra.
- Pesh 8 kommer i produksjon i begynnelsen av november (10k fat/d ekstra)
- Tawke 49 kommer online i november (5k fat/d ekstra)
- En jeribe brønn til kommer online i november (1-2k fat/d ekstra).
- Workover på 2 brønner på tawke ferdig i løpet av oktober (erstatter decline)
Jaggu skal det bli mye decline om produksjonen skal falle 5k i 4Q.
Redigert 15.10.2018 kl 09:35
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velkjent
15.10.2018 kl 09:43
2391
DnBs analyse er egentlig en nedjustering. Men så tar det meglerhuset også som regel feil. Lurer ofte på hva de driver med.
Worldwide
15.10.2018 kl 09:43
2386
Viser vel bare hvor overfladiske mange analyser er. Hvor vanskelig kan det egentlig være, når tallene finnes rett fremfor nesen?
Interessante estimater, analyser og konklusjoner fra DnB men jeg stoler vel så mye på resultatene fra regnearket til oto1. Vi får se hvem som får rett fram mot nyttår.
K
K
abroker
15.10.2018 kl 10:05
2274
Som vi har sagt til det kjedsommelige > DNO kommer når den kommer.
En av OSE sine sikre langsiktige kort som skal LANGT oppover.
Bare vent å se.......> D årner sææ!
(Kona fikk ny el-bil i sommer pga DNO Ampera e)
En av OSE sine sikre langsiktige kort som skal LANGT oppover.
Bare vent å se.......> D årner sææ!
(Kona fikk ny el-bil i sommer pga DNO Ampera e)
Redigert 15.10.2018 kl 10:09
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Mulla3
15.10.2018 kl 11:30
2078
Når DNO anbefales av DNB går kursen ned. Ellers er jeg forbannet på analytikere og Journalister som maler fanden på veggen pga etn liten justering i markedet. De er hysteriske og roper selg alle sammen. Det er helt uforståelig for meg at disse meglerne som er både utskjelte og uten tillit drite seg ut på denne måten.
vulkan
16.10.2018 kl 09:26
1517
Da fikk DNB oppdatert analysene med redusert Tawke og oppjustert Peshkabir. Den marginale økningen skyldes vel at Tawke har blitt nedjustert, DnB "reddet ansikt" der og nå klar for reelle oppjusteringer når/om nye positive oppdateringer kommer.
Kan DNO klare å øke på Tawke igjen?
Vil de øke ytterligere på Peshkabir?
Vi får se utover høsten
Kan DNO klare å øke på Tawke igjen?
Vil de øke ytterligere på Peshkabir?
Vi får se utover høsten