okidoki :-) Så hvis de havner rundt 15k så kan det faktisk være mulighet for litt utbytte da , men tror ikke selv det kommer rundt Q2 jeg da, Uansett er ratene bra nok i det lange løpet her og at det blir litt ups/downs nå med truseskvettere og daytraders ved roret. Vi får vente å se om noen meglerhus ser pærlen og ikke minst ser å feil priset verdiene er pr markedet i dag...LONGS videre :-)

Ja skal vi legge vekt på historien så burde rater på 11-15k for dette kvartalet være et godt grunnlag for utbytte. Men hvem vet hva ledelsen i JIN tenker ;)
Men ledelsen ser jo også at ratene for q2 kommer til å bli enda bedre og de kan kanskje derfor ta "Seg råd" til å betale utbytte nå, fordi de vet at inntjeningen for q2 også blir bra.

Jeg sitter stille i båten. Jeg kan liksom ikke se hva som skal få denne til å falle mye i månedene fremover. Men ingenting er umulig. Ratene kan kollapse. Det handler om sannsynlighet-prosenter.

Jeg tror det er 80% sjansje for at JIN kursen er høyere om 6 måneder enn i dag. 20% sjanse for at den er lavere.

Jeg tenker JIN kan godt gå til 30 kr +. Og jeg vil sannsynligvis ikke vurdere å selge noe før 20kr

Men igjen ikke stol på meg. Kun en dude på internett.

Ja jeg har akkurat samme strategi og jeg er også en dude på nettet :-) Er noen inneklemte dager og litt fridager , så man får velge selv om man vil sitte i båten 20 mai

Supramax stiger 1,1 prosent til 24.963 dollar.
Smax
May 25000 -375
Jun 25250 -750
Q3 22250 -500

ATLANTICA er plimsolleren bygget i 2001 som de kjøpte i oktober i fjor. Tror den har vært der du har spottet den siden da. Man kan lure på hva som har skjedd. Har områdets myndigheter fått tips om at båten er sjøudyktig?

Jin Lang og Jin Mei er de to panamaxene de har, bygget i 2010. Hvis disse har ligget oppankret uten sysselsetting en tid er det intet mindre enn en skandale og som i det minste burde vært børsmeldt.

Skjønt, noen vil kanskje si at det faller pent inn i et slags mønster.

God anledning til å spørre om det til neste fredag kl 10 :-)

Desto lenger aksjekursen til JIN lægger ratene, desto mer attraktiv blir investeringen!

For hver dag som går med disse ratene så øker bankkontoen til JIN. Det gjør at for hver dag så øker "intrinsic" value eller NAV til JIN.

Så hvis vi sier at hvert skip går i pluss med 15k i dag så blir det totalt ca 2.4 millioner kroner i pluss hver dag.

Breakeven er 7k. men må huske på bonus til ledelsen etc.. ca reell breakeven er 9k for å få 0 i EPS.

Så 24k rater- 9k breakeven =15k profit per skip per dag.

Det er 109 mill aksjer.

Så Jin tjener ca 2.2 øre per aksje per dag med dagen rater.

1 måned gir 66 øre per aksje.

3 måneder gir 1.98 kroner

12 måneder gir 7.92 kroner i inntjening per aksje.

DVS at hvis dagens rater holder seg så tjener JIN inn hele sin market cap på 1 år. Altså forward P/E=1!

Rett meg om jeg regner feil!

Ja har en dårlig følelse med disse 3 båtene. Virker som de ikke er i reell drift per i dag?
Jeg må nok nedjustere inntjeningen min :(

JA det burde absolutt vært børsmeldt om det var tilfelle!

Men kan se ut som atlantica kjører:
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:149018/mmsi:636020104/imo:9216509/vessel:ATLANTICA

Jin mei og lang ankret opp utenfor kina kysten?:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:689017/mmsi:477733500/imo:9527142/vessel:JIN_MEI
https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:689632/mmsi:477815900/imo:9527154/vessel:JIN_LANG

Name: ATLANTICA
Vessel Type - Generic: Cargo - Hazard A (Major)

Blir de inspisert pga at de har en særdeles farlig last ombord?

Har du data på jin mei og jin lang fra dager/uker tilbake? Hvis ikke, er det jo kødannelse helt normalt, og spesielt i råvaremarkeder vi har akkurat nå.

Sorry nei, jeg er ny på dette. Bare spekulerer.

Har ligget ulosset siden senhøstes i fjor.

Atlantica ble levert i begynnelsen av april, den er på tur til Lagos i Nigeria, mulig de har militæret ombord pga. uroligheter i Nigeria?
Har skrevet om Jin Mei, og Jin Lang tidligere, svært sannsynlig må befrakter betale for at skipene ikke får losset.
Er flere skip der som har ligget enda lengre, Eagle Bulk er blant de berørte, om noen får lest rapporten fra det selskapet, vil det kunne gi en pekepinn på situasjonen.

Det ble nevnt her at min, og andres, klage til rederiet ikke vil ha noen innvirkning på brødrene, men det er jeg ikke enig i. Brødrene har sett at aksjen blir holdt igjen, og lest klagene, det har nok ført til tankevirksomhet i Hongkong. I alle fall inneholdt innkallelsen til Generalforsamlingen, som jeg fikk i dag, et uventet appendix: «Guidelines for remuneration of executive personnel» Og der fremgår det klart at styret bestemmer all ekstraordinær godtgjørelse for alle, basert på selskapets inntjening og personens ytelse. Jeg tipper at det også kommer et romslig utbytte etter hvert. Dette blir bra!

Altså ledelsen vurderer å redusere sin bonus?

Ledelsen har nok hørt og vært klar over klagingen i årevis. Kan ikke se for meg de plutselig skjønte det nå i dag.

Jeg er skeptisk til en endring, men skulle de plutselig redusere lederlønn og komme med utbytte og finansavisen kommer med en positiv artikkel om JIN. Ja da blir det racerfart i aksjen!

Bevare meg vel, kan det jeg skrev oppfattes slik?

https://safety4sea.com/nigerian-navy-excludes-armed-guards-on-board/?

Gammel artikkel, men fortsatt relevant angående Atlantica.

https://www.marinetraffic.com/blog/eyeing-chinas-dry-bulk-boom/

Rekker de sende ut en proffit warning?
eller har de kanskje lagt skipene i bøyene for ikke å få for godt resultat, snittraten for q1 blir uansett ikke bedre en 12 k med alle skipene i drift, Asia rater lagget til ut i feb før de tok seg vesentlig opp.

Disse gutta blåser lang masj i hva Norske investorer tenker og skriver, det er historisk bevist og de besvarer aldri henvendelser.

https://www.hyqfocus.com/jsp/model.jsp?id=41805&modelType=1

On May 8, the 56,000-dwt bulk carrier "Huarong 2" was sold through 131 rounds of bidding at a price of 120 million yuan and a premium of 36.4%. On the same day, another 12-year-old 5353-dwt bulk carrier "Xin Yi Hai 7" was sold at 11.06 million and a premium rate of 8.4% after 38 rounds of bidding. Not only did the transaction price hit a new high, the transaction of the two ships took only 3 hours, which was rarely seen before.

Jøss...

Supramax

More fresh orders from South America. Supra from ECSA to Continent was covered at USD 30,000. Trips from Continent to USG were done around USD 18-19,000. Ultramax from West Africa being closed at USD 30,000 to Far East. Most gains coming from Pacific basin. Trips via Indo to SE Asia been fixed at low USD 30,000 and similar trip with redelivery China at USD 37,500. Ships from MEG to China collected high USD 20,000 for the business. Still firm numbers on period front. Supramax for 6/8 MOS being concluded at USD 25,000, whereas one-year deals still discussed around USD 17,000

Børsmelding om kjøp og levering av ATLANTICA kom helt tilbake i juli 2020, og i Q320-rapporten bekreftes det at båten er levert.

Er nok ellers riktig at JIN ikke blir skadelidende når båtene ikke kan losse. Manglende børsmelding om tap ved alternativet ville vært en skandale. Q1-rapporten vil vise hvilken rate som er oppnådd for panamaxene i kvartalet - da får vi svar.

Supramax rater fortsetter opp om det andre går ned, 25264 i dag. Det er berre lekkert💰💰

Ja, det er foruroligende bra. Man blir ekstra spent på hva ledelsen kommer opp med nå.

Hvem var det som "skjøt piler" etter selskapet idag?

Måtte dobbeltsjekke, takk for at du gjorde meg oppmerksom på det, ser at det må være Jin Cheng som ble levert i april, går litt fort i svingene for en nyhets-junkie som meg. lol

Jinhui Shipping and Transportation Limited, an investment holding company, engages in ship chartering and owning activities worldwide.
REWARDS

Trading at 86% below our estimate of its fair value

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:149018/mmsi:636020104/imo:9216509/vessel:ATLANTICA/_:f45de7da15b09895941f88aebc7f1b9c

Oppdatert info angående Atlantica: ARMED GUARD ONBOARD
Da var antagelsene mine riktig, og ARMY ONBOARD var nok en smule misvisende.

Vet ikke. Det har neppe vært Amor.

La dem bare skyte, supramax-segmentet har vært det mest stabile hittil i år, og på fredag vil det nok gå opp for ennå flere investorer. ;)

Det mest oppsiktsvekkende er jo at meldingen er fra 12.mai.
Siden er den gått av radaren

Meldingen er oppdatert idag, det sto army onboard senest igår.
Fartøyet er utenfor rekkevidde, men er ventet i havn iløpet av morgendagen.
Må ha abonnement for å få informasjon via satellitt.

Supramax holder seg godt. Tror Jin vil overraske markedet positivt nå på fredag. Ratene når er vel ikke så langt unna all time high? Jin var 85 kr sist ratene var så høye. Bare et perspektiv.

Du må ikke legge det til grunn.
Jin den gang hadde en ny, moderne flåte og var i kraftig vekst.
Idag er flåten mindre og den er gammel. Snitt alderen er over 13 år og de har fem skip som er 17 år eller eldre.
I tillegg må de installere WBTS på nesten alle skip i perioden frem til 2023.
I årene fremover er det altså behov for store investeringer i oppgraderinger og fornyelser av flåten.
I tillegg har de låneforfall på over 55 mill usd i år og nye 50 de neste tre årene
Ratenivået nå er en redningsplanke. Det store spørsmålstegnet er hvor lenge ratene holder seg over 15.000 samt planene eierne har for bruk av kontantinngangen,
Varer ratefesten gjennom 2022 og inn i 2023 ser utsiktene veldig gode ut. Stopper det allerede høsten 2021 har vi en helt annen historie.
Bulkinvestorer trenger gode nerver og/eller sterk tro.

Shit :(

En grei oppsummering.

Legger til at selskapet for få år siden var på vei mot å bli gjeldfritt.
Etter det har man gått inn i eiendomsbransjen i HK (hvor bra er det å være der med Kinas maktanvendelse og tiltagende innflytelse), de er i utlånsbransjen (som inkluderer salg av skip på kreditt), og har investeringer i finansielle papirer.

Nå kan disse engasjementene selvsagt gå bra, og innbetalingene derfra bidra godt til låneforfallene. Men det finnes jo en track-record, og jeg vil bli overrasket om norske aksjonærer får mer enn smuler uansett.

En virkelig test kommer førstkommende fredag.

Jeg sitter fredag :-)
Dagens Supra i trust : Supramax 58k tons +0.59% to $25,563

Lets bring fredag on. Prøver å ha så lave forventninger som mulig, så blir jeg ikke så skuffet. Sier litt.

På en annen side, kan ikke se helt hvorfor det skal ha gått så dårlig med eiendom, lånevirksomhet, og aksjeporteføljen til Jin. Hvorfor skulle vi få negative overraskelser her nå?

Spørsmålet nå er vel hva ratene var og om det blir utbytte.

Dagens aksje hos investech i dag med anbefaling KJØP uten motstand i kurs diagram.

Den har blinka grønt lenge det analyseverktøyet :-)
Ser greit ut fremover også innenfor SUPRA , juni bygger seg opp
May 25100 +100
Jun 26275 +525
Q3 23500 +400

Her er det bare å laste opp..

Sett historisk så bør det egentlig komme et utbytte. Sist de betalte utbytte så hadde de sluttet rater til 11k. Nå får vi kanskje 12-15k rater for kvartalet. Og ratene nå tilsier god økonomi for Jin også ved neste rapport, så de kan ta seg råd til utbytte. Men hvem vet med den gjengen i Jin 😉

Jeg tror det er små kroner dette med ballastrense vann systemet. De kan selge sine aksjer på børsen for å dekke dette hvis de trenger og vil det. Jeg syns det ser utelukkende positivt ut og veldig sterkt ut pengemessig for jinhui nå.

Hva har jin uttalt seg om ballast rense system tidligere? Jeg mener de snakket om det på en av de tidligere earnings call transcript som kan finne på yahoo finance.

Capital allocation future. You can see that as long as we are -- if there's no any further buy and sell of vessels, the mix capital allocation in 2021 and beyond would be the ballast water tanks. We have no new building commitment right now, so there's no major capital expenditure. Okay. Scrubbers -- no, sorry, I will not aim for scrubbers in the future. The volatility in the low sulfur fuel has -- recently has shown that the price gap between low sulfur fuel LSFO versus the traditional bunker is actually minimal. There has been competitors in the market who actually were so scared of supply, which undertakes to commit to LSFO back in late 2019 for a price differential of USD 150 per ton are all suffering. So we are glad that we do not take that route. Scrubbers, no, we believe that as LSFO become more and more common, there will be ample supply. And the price gap will be -- will come down. It will be very manageable. Just like unleaded petrol for your cars

May 25200 +200
Jun 27125 +1375
Q3 23875 +775
Jøsses...se Juni øker

Wei Ching

It looks like in view of the -- I think it's public knowledge that there's a lot of volatility both in the equity market, freight market as well as even the property markets. So for example, the property market, it's always been one of our views to put -- not to put all our eggs in one basket and put partially some of our eggs into an asset class that do not correlate to shipping. So what the reason behind buying -- or allocating a small proportion of our funds into some real estate. We are very selective on that front. We are very selective on that front. In terms of the equity, there's unrealized loss as of end 2018. Confident to say that even the -- I would say 98% of fund managers globally has been making a mark-to-market loss on 2018 Q4. From that -- on that perspective, we believe that unrealized loss is actually fairly small. It's around 3-point something million. Gains in such a volatile environment, I think it's actually respectable. If we look at the position now, it's now end of February, a lot of that has been recovered.

Wei Ching

For now, I think it's more like I think we have been reducing part of the position as the market -- the overall global market has been in recovery because it's -- we still see uncertainties in markets. So as some of those are securities that we have purchased, and they have recovered, we have also had some of the [ income ]. In terms of when you ask -- if you ask me what is the overall strategy for 2019 in terms of how we allocate our funds, to be honest with you, it's so -- the markets are so volatile, the situation is so fluid out there, I can't give you a particular strategy. We just have to play it by ear because events are happening every day, unexpected events happening every week, every 3 days.

Wei Ching

We are not committing to a particular dividend policy, but we rather use actions or to show our shareholders what we are going to do. As you can see, it's -- the shipping industry, the dry bulk shipping has suffered for many -- quite a number of years. And as soon as we have turned positive and given that financially we, in terms of balance sheet -- of the financial status of the company is rather robust, we are -- we decided to distribute dividends. Going forward, this will be the same kind of thinking going forward, but in terms of whether it's going to be a percent of earnings to retain this flexibility because we do operate in a highly intensive, highly volatile industry.

Wei Ching

The -- okay. The whole reason behind acquiring 2 secondhand vessels, to be honest, they are not very young, but they are 2 -- these ship vessels are some of the most well-maintained, good quality vessels we have seen. We'll be frank to all of you. Surprisingly enough, these are Chinese vessels, Chinese made. But accordingly to our experience, we have found that vessels be it made in China or made in Japan, made in Korea, those vessels that were made in the early 2000s, i.e., before the actual bulk market took off, when -- if you think of it, shipyards at that time would -- begging for business, okay. And the quality that -- of these ships at those times were very, very well made. They used extra steel plates. The engine rooms are better arranged. The deck quality was a lot better. I can go on and on about this. But overall, we're very surprised of the quality as well as it was very well maintained from -- in the seller. The seller actually owned this vessel from the newbuilding.

So with this -- and of course, it was a very good price. It was a low enough price where we see that even us, and let's say, for example, 5 more years of use under our management, under our operation, which we can confidently achieve, just considering, for example, the demolition price of such vessel, the risk capital that we actually are committing is very, very low. So i.e., for example, I mean we are literally risking roughly even a little bit north of USD 1.6 million for each ship. But the rest, by the time we finished operating it in the market -- of course, at a very low cost. And these vessels, you can also imagine the depreciation, the noncash item will also be minimal. We will still fetch roughly around USD 4 million, possibly plus, on demolition value. So we believe it's a very good value proposition. We can increase our carrying capacity spending very, very little capital. So this is the rationale.

Wei Ching

The ballast water, we -- no, we haven't. I believe, actually, no, we have not installed a ballast water management system yet on our vessels, but we have already have got extension on the requirements of installing ballast water management systems. Okay? And these extensions run all the way until 2022, so we have time. Why we did that is because -- if we would have put up money to invest into ballast water management systems the day they announced it and looking at the price of the installation of installing ballast water management systems on our ships now, I think I would cough up blood, to be honest. You could say the price is more than half, and they still continue going on a down trend. So we saw that coming, and we didn't -- we did not want to be guinea pigs. So we very quickly went to apply for the extension. So we got maximum extension all the way until 2022, early 2022 for every ship.

Wei Ching

Philip, thank you. Of course, thanks for your input. This is something -- your idea of share buyback is something that obviously has been mentioned by, firstly, other shareholders of ours, including ourselves, we have actually considered this too. But having said that, what I'd like to urge you to think when you're sitting in our shoes, okay? The NAV that you're looking at is a very much snapshot in time.

As I said, we are not sure about the market outlook, to be honest with you. And whether it is -- doing a share buyback is a snapshot in time to a boost in the share value, okay? It's -- of course, it's a very, very positive thing to do that for all shareholders, from minority to major shareholders. But at the same time, it doesn't expand.

For example, if we have cash and let's say, if there's an opportunity to -- that some -- the market is very fragmented. Let's say, there are others, owners who want to give up their ship at a very attractive price, I think buying a vessel and then expanding the absolute cash flow in terms of magnitude, be it a different, a newer type of ship, a larger ship, et cetera, is also on our consideration. So it's given -- I believe you understand where I'm coming from with the limited or very low visibility of how the global economy is going to trend going forward. It's not an easy decision to make. But thank you very much. We will -- this is on one of our lists as well in terms of a share buyback.

Unknown Analyst

Got it. My second question is regarding the BWTS. Can you give us some details about the average CapEx for each ship? Or -- and how the company would like to fund the CapEx.

Wei Ching

We will fund the ballast water management system, obviously, through internal cash flow or any undrawn facility. Now we have been playing the waiting game in terms of the ballast water management systems, okay? It was originally very, very expensive. But of course, as this becomes more and more bread-and-butter for -- in terms of the suppliers as well as the installation efforts from shipyards, we expect for the equipment itself, probably $0.25 million for each ship. It could -- that's like the ballpark figure, okay? And in order to save the installation cost, obviously, we will -- we have timed this in accordance to the ships for the next survey, for the next dry dock and survey. So on the installation charges, we expect the fitting of the ballast water management systems wouldn't be substantial. It wouldn't be another -- additional substantial maintenance cost. So we do it -- we install it while we are doing the periodic maintenance at the dry dock. So I would say $0.25 million to maybe $300,000, maybe slightly more, the ballpark figure. So we don't need to do any special funding for such CapEx.

If there are no further questions, I'll call this an end to the presentation. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the U.S. trade dispute will come to some kind of conclusion soon so that the uncertainty in markets would reduce for everyone, for everyone's sake or industry's. If you would like to have -- if you have further questions you would like to take it off-line, you know where to e-mail me or call me. Thank you.

Why are we not rejuvenating our fleet? Well, we do not have the full confidence right now of how the regulations of vessels will trend. Is the next generation going to be remain the current diesel engine? The actual regulation, the environmental regulation, we want more time to see how that changes. And if you see how newbuilding prices have been trending, while we are shying away from newbuilding prices, they keep dropping. We will be installing the water ballast tanks in accordance to the time docked -- or in accordance to the time line or the deadline.

We do not want to specifically, for example, send a ship. The planned capital for the entire fleet, I would roughly estimate around -- for the ballast water tank equipment alone, it should be around $300,000 per ship, but we are going to plan together to do this kind of work, along with its dry docking schedule. So the overall planned capital will be around maybe a little bit north of $0.5 million each in due course for each ship. We also won't like to send them in batches. So we send them one by one to stretch out, so that at any point in time, we will have majority of our vessels in business.