Update
Nordic Nanovector (Pharm. & Biotechnology, Norway)
Recommendation: Buy
Price target: NOK 36.00

Recruitment on the soft side


While the total operating loss in Q1 was slightly less than we had expected, we are concerned only 10 new patients have been recruited into the PARADIGME trial in the past 3 months. Management reiterated that it expects a data read-out in late 2021, but recruitment would need to speed up to achieve this. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK36 (40), having adjusted for the higher share count following the equity issue in February.



Q1 loss smaller than expected. The total operating profit (loss) Q1 was cNOK-101m, versus our forecast of cNOK-110m. The main difference YOY was lower “Other operating expenses”, mostly related to clinical activity. At the end of the quarter, the company had cNOK498m in cash, slightly less than our forecast of cNOK523m, mainly as a result of movements in net working capital being more negative than we expected.

Recruitment to the PARADIGME trial on the soft side. We are somewhat concerned that only 10 new patients have been recruited to the PARADIGME trial in the past 3 months. Management reiterated that it expects a data read-out by the end of 2021 but, given the company has a first follow-up after three months and will likely need some time to analyse the results, we estimate it will need to recruit and treat the last patient in early September at the latest, giving it just 3½ months to recruit the remaining patients (to reach the full 120). The company mentioned that c2 patients would be dosed in the coming days, but the recruitment rate needs to reach c10 patients per month to hit its target. Although it should gain momentum as more countries move out of lockdown, we see further delays in the PARADIGME read-out as a key risk for the case.

Archer-1 data strong, with a 100% ORR. Management recently presented an updated evaluation of the first 7 patients in the Archer-1 phase I trial in combination with rituximab in 2L FL patients. The numbers are small but promising, with a 100% ORR (5CR and 2PR).

BUY reiterated, but target price cut to NOK36. We have included the new shares issued in the spring and cut our target price accordingly. We reiterate that recruitment to the PARADIGME trial is critical to the case, and thus the key risk factor short-term.

Best regards

__________________________________________________



Patrik Ling | DNB Markets | Equity Research

DNB Bank ASA
Dronning Eufemias gate 30 | 0191 Oslo | Norway
Dir: +46 8 473 48 43Call: +46 8 473 48 43 | Mob:
Email: patrik.ling@dnb.se | www.dnb.no