Zenith Energy - Analysis June 2021
I have spent the last few evenings going over my workings and putting together a list of what we should all expect from Zenith over the next few months. I apologise in advance because this is going to be a very long set of posts.
For those who cannot be bothered to read through 5 or 6 pages of text the main points to take note of are the many different things that are expected to happen in the near future. These are as follows:
1. Zenith should carry out a Tunisian work/development program that is aiming to deliver an extra 1,000 bopd (approx) to the company once all is complete (and assuming that everything is successful). This work programme should be starting very soon.
2. The company should finalise its ownership of SLK by the end of this month and once this is done will have access to $3.7 million (net) worth of oil (as well as the additional $1.7 million from oil stored at Essaouia) – total $5.4 million.
3. The company should receive approval on the Tilapia2 license by the end of next month. At the same time, I would expect them to receive a repayment plan on the $5.7 million owed by the SNPC (less the signing fee for Tilapia 2).
4. The company should hear something about the Nigeria marginal field bid as well as potentially acquiring other Nigerian asset(s) that are unconnected to this.
5. The company should also hear something on the additional Congo licenses that they were talking about.
6. The reserves report should be issued over the next quarter an certainly as part of the annual report in August.
7. Once the Tunisian workover program is under way the company should prove that they can finally deliver on the long-term promise of funding development through debt.
For those who want more detail – enjoy the following essay!
Best wishes,
MG
For those who cannot be bothered to read through 5 or 6 pages of text the main points to take note of are the many different things that are expected to happen in the near future. These are as follows:
1. Zenith should carry out a Tunisian work/development program that is aiming to deliver an extra 1,000 bopd (approx) to the company once all is complete (and assuming that everything is successful). This work programme should be starting very soon.
2. The company should finalise its ownership of SLK by the end of this month and once this is done will have access to $3.7 million (net) worth of oil (as well as the additional $1.7 million from oil stored at Essaouia) – total $5.4 million.
3. The company should receive approval on the Tilapia2 license by the end of next month. At the same time, I would expect them to receive a repayment plan on the $5.7 million owed by the SNPC (less the signing fee for Tilapia 2).
4. The company should hear something about the Nigeria marginal field bid as well as potentially acquiring other Nigerian asset(s) that are unconnected to this.
5. The company should also hear something on the additional Congo licenses that they were talking about.
6. The reserves report should be issued over the next quarter an certainly as part of the annual report in August.
7. Once the Tunisian workover program is under way the company should prove that they can finally deliver on the long-term promise of funding development through debt.
For those who want more detail – enjoy the following essay!
Best wishes,
MG
Redigert 10.06.2021 kl 14:32
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Stockdance
15.08.2021 kl 11:10
1360
A question about Italy’s production in Italy in another thread motivated me to look more into this. Based on given information current production is still there merely as a proof of competence. However, it may seem like there still is great potential in Italy, so future growth in Italy is maybe also a contributing factor to continue operations there.
«Zenith’s Italian energy production interests hold significant potential for development and increased energy production. The development programme is primarily concentrated on the Torrente Cigno concession, where the Company is finalising a plan to drill a development well, to be named MV-2, to explore the updip structure of the Miocenic and Cretaceous carbonates formations»
https://www.zenithenergy.ca/operations/italy/
«As a net importer of crude oil and natural gas, Italy is heavily dependent on imports to meet about 93% of its oil and natural gas needs and to maintain its exports of refined petroleum products.»
«Italy is the second-largest natural gas importer in Europe after Germany, and the third-largest consumer of natural gas after Germany and the United Kingdom. Natural gas imports were 2.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2016, and dry natural gas production that year was 0.2 Tcf. Natural gas imports accounted for about 92% of the total natural gas supply in Italy.»
«Most of Italy’s natural gas imports come from Russia via pipelines across Ukraine and from southeastern Europe. Natural gas sent by pipeline from Russia accounted for about 44% of Italy’s total natural gas imports in 2016.
«Italy has natural gas pipeline connections to Algeria and Libya across the Mediterranean Sea and to northern European producers via Switzerland.»
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/ITA
«Zenith’s Italian energy production interests hold significant potential for development and increased energy production. The development programme is primarily concentrated on the Torrente Cigno concession, where the Company is finalising a plan to drill a development well, to be named MV-2, to explore the updip structure of the Miocenic and Cretaceous carbonates formations»
https://www.zenithenergy.ca/operations/italy/
«As a net importer of crude oil and natural gas, Italy is heavily dependent on imports to meet about 93% of its oil and natural gas needs and to maintain its exports of refined petroleum products.»
«Italy is the second-largest natural gas importer in Europe after Germany, and the third-largest consumer of natural gas after Germany and the United Kingdom. Natural gas imports were 2.3 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) in 2016, and dry natural gas production that year was 0.2 Tcf. Natural gas imports accounted for about 92% of the total natural gas supply in Italy.»
«Most of Italy’s natural gas imports come from Russia via pipelines across Ukraine and from southeastern Europe. Natural gas sent by pipeline from Russia accounted for about 44% of Italy’s total natural gas imports in 2016.
«Italy has natural gas pipeline connections to Algeria and Libya across the Mediterranean Sea and to northern European producers via Switzerland.»
https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/ITA
Stockdance
28.06.2021 kl 19:57
1969
Interesting thoughts you have about a «complete rethink of how they do the license transferral». Probably a dumb question, but is it possible for KUFPEC and CNPC to establish a subsidiary company where the assets are transferred before Zenith purchases the subsidiary?
MarketGunsling
28.06.2021 kl 15:48
2111
Although the purchase of Sidi El Kiliani seems to have been going on forever and is still not complete – counter-intuitively this additional delay is actually a good thing. The deal is not abandoned and all parties seem to still think that it will be completed – hence the extensions.
We know that CNPC and KUFPEC both want to sell their assets to Zenith (as proved by both extending the completion dates) and that the hold-up is simply on the approval side from the Tunisian authorities – who are notoriously slow at doing any kind of permitting. With the new longstop dates in place of Nov 30th and Oct 31st we now have a significant new stretch of time to get the deal completed. KUFPEC and CNPC must feel that the deals are getting closer to being approved or they would not continue to extend the longstop date.
The other really important thing to remember is that due to the way the deals with KUFPEC and CNPC have been structured the oil that has been produced since the “economic date” of April 1st 2020 will all be the property of Zenith once the deal is finally concluded. As of the 17th March 2021 RNS they announced this as being approximately 65,000 barrels of oil and by my reckoning this should have increased by another 30,000 barrels in the last 3 and a half months. In total this should mean that there is approx. 95,000 barrels of oil waiting to come into Zenith’s hands as soon as the deal is concluded (plus whatever else is generated between now and then). With the oil price at $75 and assuming a production cost of $30 per barrel this should give $4.25 million in net revenue already with more to come as it is produced.
Personally, what I would like to see from Zenith over the course of the rest of the negotiating period is a complete rethink of how they do the license transferral. They completed the purchase of Ezzaouia and Robana/El Bibane from Candax without having to go through the Tunisian regulatory process by wholly purchasing the subsidiary companies: “Ecumed Petroleum Zaris Ltd” and “Ecumed Tunisia Ltd”. I wonder if there is a clever way that they could do something similar with SLK – especially as they now have the former Mayor of Tunis (Mohamed Bouleymen) on the payroll. That said, maybe the whole reason of putting him on the payroll was to use his political connections to get the approval through the old-fashioned way.
As, I said at the beginning of this post – I think that the extension (although frustrating as w all hoped the deal would be completed by now) is actually a good thing. The deal is still alive and with the addition of Bouleymen to the team it signifies that we will get SLK over the line in the near future and then we will finally be able to cash in on the value of the stored oil. Once this happens it will be a game-changer for the company share price as it will show really significant money being generated by the assets that Zenith own – which is something that the company has never delivered before.
We know that CNPC and KUFPEC both want to sell their assets to Zenith (as proved by both extending the completion dates) and that the hold-up is simply on the approval side from the Tunisian authorities – who are notoriously slow at doing any kind of permitting. With the new longstop dates in place of Nov 30th and Oct 31st we now have a significant new stretch of time to get the deal completed. KUFPEC and CNPC must feel that the deals are getting closer to being approved or they would not continue to extend the longstop date.
The other really important thing to remember is that due to the way the deals with KUFPEC and CNPC have been structured the oil that has been produced since the “economic date” of April 1st 2020 will all be the property of Zenith once the deal is finally concluded. As of the 17th March 2021 RNS they announced this as being approximately 65,000 barrels of oil and by my reckoning this should have increased by another 30,000 barrels in the last 3 and a half months. In total this should mean that there is approx. 95,000 barrels of oil waiting to come into Zenith’s hands as soon as the deal is concluded (plus whatever else is generated between now and then). With the oil price at $75 and assuming a production cost of $30 per barrel this should give $4.25 million in net revenue already with more to come as it is produced.
Personally, what I would like to see from Zenith over the course of the rest of the negotiating period is a complete rethink of how they do the license transferral. They completed the purchase of Ezzaouia and Robana/El Bibane from Candax without having to go through the Tunisian regulatory process by wholly purchasing the subsidiary companies: “Ecumed Petroleum Zaris Ltd” and “Ecumed Tunisia Ltd”. I wonder if there is a clever way that they could do something similar with SLK – especially as they now have the former Mayor of Tunis (Mohamed Bouleymen) on the payroll. That said, maybe the whole reason of putting him on the payroll was to use his political connections to get the approval through the old-fashioned way.
As, I said at the beginning of this post – I think that the extension (although frustrating as w all hoped the deal would be completed by now) is actually a good thing. The deal is still alive and with the addition of Bouleymen to the team it signifies that we will get SLK over the line in the near future and then we will finally be able to cash in on the value of the stored oil. Once this happens it will be a game-changer for the company share price as it will show really significant money being generated by the assets that Zenith own – which is something that the company has never delivered before.
Redigert 28.06.2021 kl 15:49
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Viking_I
25.06.2021 kl 10:24
2454
I am expecting SLK and sale of oil but now both are postponed. (Date was announced on stock message) so i was hopeful but look like company is going with his pace and loosing good period of high oil price. I am just hopping AC should issue annual report for 2020 in time and avoid suspension like last time.
Aldara
25.06.2021 kl 10:18
2484
Viking...Nobody knows! Didn't U expect something positive before end of June as well??
Redigert 25.06.2021 kl 10:21
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Viking_I
25.06.2021 kl 10:12
2507
i do not expect tilapia next week as all things are going. AC concentrating on new fields in Tunisia. I am expecting in August.
Kan ikke Tilapia like godt komme neste uke?
Vi vet vel nada om prosessene og når myndighetene bestemmer seg.
Nå må de komme med nytt kjøp av selskap for å komme unna myndighetene og dere latskap. Fremstår som u-land
Vi vet vel nada om prosessene og når myndighetene bestemmer seg.
Nå må de komme med nytt kjøp av selskap for å komme unna myndighetene og dere latskap. Fremstår som u-land
Viking_I
25.06.2021 kl 09:38
2624
As expected message only date is 31 Oct 2021. AC should come out and face the live questions from shareholders now. Tilapia message may come most probably in August as there is a public holiday in July so parliament will start again in August, correct if I am wrong about parliament schedule.
Herbius
22.06.2021 kl 18:34
3043
Takker Nano 😃😃⚽️⚽️
Fantastisk aften 🍺🍺🍺
Nu må vi gerne få samme jubel i Zen 💰💰
Fantastisk aften 🍺🍺🍺
Nu må vi gerne få samme jubel i Zen 💰💰
Byzantin
22.06.2021 kl 18:34
3045
Nå er det en god stund siden jeg har fulgt med, men da man i AC-aksjen befinner seg i en permanent tilstand av å være på overtid av overtiden, er det heller ikke nødvendig å sjekke så ofte. I det hele tatt litt deilig å bli dratt ut av den klassiske lïneære måten å oppleve tid på. I følge Kant eksisterer ikke tid og rom i og for seg, men er kategorier siom mennesket oppfatter virkeligheten gjennom. Kanskje finnes ingen fortid eller framtid, kanskje har vi som aksjonæere alt fått vårt utbytte av Zenith-investeringene, det er kun illusjonen av tid som gjør at vi tror at vi går og venter.
AC⚡AC - Through the mists of time / Cover you in oil.
AC⚡AC - Through the mists of time / Cover you in oil.
Skalleknarp
22.06.2021 kl 16:40
3201
Falsk alarm…? Viser vel bare hvor potens denne er om det skulle komme good news. Ha en fin kveld🤠
Nano Rekyl
22.06.2021 kl 16:33
3222
Gullit skrev Da tenker jeg vi nærmer oss noe., last opp
Gullit, vi er en dag nærmere en melding! Spennende tider nå fremover!
Ha ellers en fortreffelig aften!
Ha ellers en fortreffelig aften!
Barneskirenn
22.06.2021 kl 16:01
3310
Stille som i grava :)
Får kryss fingrene for at Tilapia/SLK går i boks (og snarlig), og da vil vi se helt andre tall enn til nå.
Får kryss fingrene for at Tilapia/SLK går i boks (og snarlig), og da vil vi se helt andre tall enn til nå.
Hektor
22.06.2021 kl 15:51
3338
Her er siste handel i London. Stille før stormen her også 👍
22.06.2112:09:43
0.93
GBX
500,000
4,625.00
22.06.2112:09:43
0.93
GBX
500,000
4,625.00
Pengene renner inn ja.
Ikke for dere aksjonærer iallefall
Ikke for dere aksjonærer iallefall
Nano Rekyl
22.06.2021 kl 12:49
3503
Slettet brukerskrev Jeg vil ha melding!!
Rlx det kommer når det kommer!
Gratulerer herbius og AQ med videre avansement! En kanon fra selveste AC også!
Ha ellers en fin fin børsdag også!
Gratulerer herbius og AQ med videre avansement! En kanon fra selveste AC også!
Ha ellers en fin fin børsdag også!
Jeg vil ha melding!!
Herman*
22.06.2021 kl 12:15
3587
Zenith er flink til å sende ut børsmeldinger, det vi trenger nå er en eller flere meldinger med substans.
C-Eiken
22.06.2021 kl 11:48
3655
Ja for nogle måneder siden "brokkede" folk sig over der var for mange opdateringer, og nu der så blevet helt stille.........
gravemaskinen
22.06.2021 kl 11:46
3664
hvor ble det av den norske "IR" en? Har hvert stille fra selskapet "lenge" nå.....
citius
22.06.2021 kl 09:07
3796
Vi må ta til takke med offentlig Info som ligger på bordet
Det sprengjobbes med borreprogrammet, som sannsynligvis er på plass (Tunisien)
finansieringer der er også på plass, ref. tidligere meldinger
Trenger en melding på at de er i gang
Ellers så "renner pengene inn" med dagens oljepris
Tar høyde for at kjøpte og bnetalte lisensandeler tilfaller Z selv om det mangler stempel på papiret.......det kommer
Blir vilt når også Congo kommer med sin formelle tildeling
lutefish
21.06.2021 kl 17:17
4006
Det er flere som venter på svar fra Tunis
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NTOG/potential-portfolio-expansion-oenfk1wf08gt0ur.html
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/NTOG/potential-portfolio-expansion-oenfk1wf08gt0ur.html
Viking_I
21.06.2021 kl 15:09
4170
On the 30th June if we are not got any updates of following.
1) SLK acceptance.
2) Not provided any update from company regarding sell of oil.
2) Tilapia II, there no time line defined by company.
4) No update on 2P reserve.
forgot about any other West Africa field now.
1) SLK acceptance.
2) Not provided any update from company regarding sell of oil.
2) Tilapia II, there no time line defined by company.
4) No update on 2P reserve.
forgot about any other West Africa field now.
Viking_I skrev Nice buy of 1.5 million at 0.103. don't need to panic.
When is the right time to panic?
As a rule of thumb, I find it's usually a good idea to start panicking when somebody says 'don't panic'.
As a rule of thumb, I find it's usually a good idea to start panicking when somebody says 'don't panic'.
Herman*
21.06.2021 kl 11:15
4474
Et jalla selskap i et jalla land, ikke lett å spå og derfor er kursen utbombet. Hvis AC ikke har rotet det til for seg selv, ser jeg ingen logisk grunn til at PSA ikke kan undertegnes umiddelbart, med ratifisering et par uker senere.
Galv
21.06.2021 kl 11:10
4501
Albaliciouz
Det er heile blokken som produsere mellom 39-44 k fat pr dag.
Det er spm hvor stor andel har deshamaran.
Opex er lav - men hvor mye får de beholde.
Dessverre veldig lite pr fat de beholde kontra vi får på TLP
Det finnes 2x antall aksjer kontra Zenith og står i 0,35 øre.
Men uansett ønsker deg lykke til med salg i Zena😀😀😀
Det er heile blokken som produsere mellom 39-44 k fat pr dag.
Det er spm hvor stor andel har deshamaran.
Opex er lav - men hvor mye får de beholde.
Dessverre veldig lite pr fat de beholde kontra vi får på TLP
Det finnes 2x antall aksjer kontra Zenith og står i 0,35 øre.
Men uansett ønsker deg lykke til med salg i Zena😀😀😀
Barneskirenn
21.06.2021 kl 11:00
4537
Herman*, har du en "magefølelse" på hva du tipper det kommer?
Jeg blir aldri klok på tidsestimat når det gjelder fra myndigheter.. samme om det er Congo, Canada, Sverige.. I morgen eller om 2 år..
Jeg blir aldri klok på tidsestimat når det gjelder fra myndigheter.. samme om det er Congo, Canada, Sverige.. I morgen eller om 2 år..
Redigert 21.06.2021 kl 11:00
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lutefish
21.06.2021 kl 11:00
4536
Slettet brukerskrev Er AC i Tunisia eller CONGO?
Her er flere spørsmål :
1 ) AC var skråsikker på at oljedirektør Therese Goma ville få sparken etter valget . Er det noe nytt der ?
2 ) Hva med de 25 000 fat olje på lager i Tunis som skulle kunne selges i mai . Er de solgt ?
1 ) AC var skråsikker på at oljedirektør Therese Goma ville få sparken etter valget . Er det noe nytt der ?
2 ) Hva med de 25 000 fat olje på lager i Tunis som skulle kunne selges i mai . Er de solgt ?
Nano Rekyl
21.06.2021 kl 10:56
2601
Slettet brukerskrev Er AC i Tunisia eller CONGO?
Siste melding om hvor AC befant seg var i Tunis😄😄😄!
Takk herman* vi satser på at ting er rundt hjørnet!
Ha ellers en fin fin børsdag alle sammen!
Takk herman* vi satser på at ting er rundt hjørnet!
Ha ellers en fin fin børsdag alle sammen!
Er AC i Tunisia eller CONGO?
Herman*
21.06.2021 kl 09:21
2779
Parlamentet i Congo har ikke vedtatt en eneste lov så langt i år, så de går nok en travel tid i møte. Når det gjelder oljelisenser, antar jeg at dette bare er en formalitet som ikke debatteres. Jeg registrerer også at det går kort tid mellom signatur av PSA og ratifisering i parlamentet. Det er derfor godt mulig at en PSA ikke har blitt underskrevet tidligere da parlamentet ikke har har vært beslutningsdyktig. Det er nå ingen grunn til å vente med en slik underskrift av den grunn. Spørsmålet er som nevnt tidligere: Vil en PSA bli børsmeldt først eller bare etter ratifisering. Og hvis den ikke blir børsmeldt, vil det jo ikke være vanskelig for lokale krefter å finne dagsorden i parlamentet noen dager før en slik avstemming skjer.
Når som helst kan vi få se en slik artikkel:
https://www.finances.gouv.cg/en/articles/oil-sector-signing-production-sharing-agreement-marine-xxi-between-republic-congo-national
Når som helst kan vi få se en slik artikkel:
https://www.finances.gouv.cg/en/articles/oil-sector-signing-production-sharing-agreement-marine-xxi-between-republic-congo-national
Redigert 21.06.2021 kl 09:26
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Viking_I
21.06.2021 kl 08:13
2943
As per current management behavior message will look like on 30th June for SLK " We are please to announce that
The Extension has been granted in view of the difficulties caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic which have not enabled Completion to be achieved. The new Longstop date for Completion of the SPA is Nov 30, 2021. "
The Extension has been granted in view of the difficulties caused by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic which have not enabled Completion to be achieved. The new Longstop date for Completion of the SPA is Nov 30, 2021. "
Redigert 21.06.2021 kl 08:14
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Har den store dagen kommet? Er det i dag det skjer?
Gullhaugen
20.06.2021 kl 02:36
3398
Nå må du slutte ned struttse mentaliteten din. Gå 3år tilbake å se utviklingen i aksjen. Det er en skandale og mangen sitter stuck i denne mens AC har beriket seg selv å levd på emisjoner. Sannheten svir men investeringer i denne de site årene har vært en skandale. Fra 1 krone til 0.1.på 3 år.
shamaran har forresten 45 000 far per dag.
sammenligner vi zena med sham så burde zena ligge å vake rundt 0.000001 kr per aksje med dagens produksjon de har. shamaran har en børsverdi på 110 mill med 45 000 fat per dag, hva har zena?
lykke til folkens (prøv å selg dere ut i det stille)
sammenligner vi zena med sham så burde zena ligge å vake rundt 0.000001 kr per aksje med dagens produksjon de har. shamaran har en børsverdi på 110 mill med 45 000 fat per dag, hva har zena?
lykke til folkens (prøv å selg dere ut i det stille)
kanskje du bør poste under #metoo på twitter. sikkert mange som står i kø for å gi deg støtteerklerklæringer for å ha investert i et oljeselskap som opererer i afrika og hvor det er velkjent at sjefen selv har et særdeles frynsete rykte :o)
Redigert 20.06.2021 kl 01:21
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