AqualisBraemar LOC Q2 20.08


20 august legger AqualisBraemar LOC frem Q2 tallene. Selskapet går under radaren for de fleste. AQUA leveres høyt utbytte, har høy ordrereserve, stor cashbeholdning og lav pris.

Vil vi se en reprising etter Q2 20.08?

Høyt utbytte:
0,50 kr i årlig utbyttes ventes i 2021, betales hvert halvår. Gir en dirketeavkastning på 5,5%

Høy ordrereserve:
Selskapet hadde en ordrereserve på 71,3 millioner dollar ved utgangen av første kvartal 2021.

Høy kontantbalanse:
Kontantbalanse på 28,3 millioner

Lav pris:
863 mill. kr

Kontrakter kommer på løpende bånd:
https://abl-group.com/category/all-media/news/

AqualisBraemar LOC : ABL Group joins UN Global Compact Network UK
08/17/2021
ABL Group joins UN Global Compact Network UK
AqualisBraemar LOC Group (ABL Group) - the energy and marine consultants - reinforces its support for the UN Global Compact and its principles in becoming a member of the UN Global Compact Network UK.

ABL Group, encompassing the group's 7 company brands: AqualisBraemar LOC (ABL), OWC, Longitude Engineering, Innosea, East Point Geo, JLA and ABL Yachts - became a signatory to the UN Global Compact in 2020, joining thousands of other companies globally in committing to take responsible business action for a more equitable society.

https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/AQUALISBRAEMAR-LOC-ASA-17491259/news/AqualisBraemar-LOC-ABL-Group-joins-UN-Global-Compact-Network-UK-36180346/
Redigert 18.08.2021 kl 13:19 Du må logge inn for å svare

Her er oppsummeringen fra SB1M oppdatering av analysen 11. mai.
Føsrte punkt ble bekreftet med Q1-tall 19. mai, punkt to og tre vil vi få en ytterligere bekreftelse på når Q2-tallene legges frem fredag 20. august.

- We expect solid Q1 figures on 19 May:
- Revenues and margins set to increase in 2021 and 2022
- Very low multiples, net cash and attractive dividend:

Oppsummering av analysen:
AqualisBraemar LOC – Buy, TP NOK 15
We expect solid Q1 figures next week and EBIT growth in 2021-22 – Higher valuation warranted

We believe AqualisBraemar LOC will report solid Q1 figures on 19 May, which will support our estimates of increasing EBIT in 2021 and 2022. We estimate Q1 EBIT of USD 1.8m, up from USD 1.4m in Q4, while we estimate accelerating improvement in the coming quarters, driven by 1) Synergies, 2) Lifting of travel restrictions, 3) Structural growth in renewables and 4) Cyclical recovery in oil & gas. We reiterate our view that valuation looks highly attractive, with EV/EBIT 8x/5x on our 2021-22 estimates and P/E 12x/8x. These multiples are very low for an asset light human capital business like
AQUA, which has gained significant scale past two years through the acquisitions of Braemar and LOC. Current valuation is significantly below peer
group median EV/EBIT of 21x/19x for 2021-22 and P/E 27x/24x. AQUA is furthermore in a net cash position and targets 50-70% of EPS in dividends over
time. We estimate dividend yield of 6-7% in 2021-22. We maintain Buy and NOK 15 target price, and highlight AQUA as one of our top picks.

• We expect solid Q1 figures on 19 May: We believe AQUA will report solid Q1 figures on 19 May, which will support our estimates of increasing EBIT in
2021 and 2022. We estimate Q1 EBIT of USD 1.8m (5% margin), up from USD 1.4m pro-forma in Q4’20 (3.9% margin). We estimate revenues of USD
36m, flat q/q, but with lower costs due to synergies (mainly from the Braemar acquisition). Our EBIT estimate is somewhat below consensus at USD
2.2m (only one other brokerage) while our EBITDA estimate is higher, as we factor in higher D&A. Compared to Q1’20, our pro-forma revenue estimate
is up 6% y/y. No other pro-forma figures for Q1’20 have been provided but AQUA ex LOC was at 7.1% EBIT adj. margin in Q1’20. We argue our Q1’21
estimates imply an underlying positive development as 1) Much of Q1 in 2020 was not affected by Covid-19 and travel restrictions, and 2) The company
has seen currency headwinds vs Q1’20, with USD down 55% on average against local currencies. The majority of AQUA’s revenues are in USD while
costs are in local currencies.

• Revenues and margins set to increase in 2021 and 2022: We expect increasing revenues and margins over the coming quarters, driven by 1) Synergies,
2) Lifting of travel restrictions, 3) Cyclical recovery in oil & gas and 4) Structural growth in renewables. USD 3.5m estimated annual cost synergies from
the LOC acquisition is expected to be gradually unlocked, with the main drivers being consolidation of 18 offices worldwide and implementation of one
ERP and management system across the group. Lifting of travel restrictions should lead to reduced project execution complexity while travel restrictions
also have resulted in pent up demand for several of AQUA’s services, e.g. rig moves and delayed start-up of projects. The strong structural growth in
renewables is expected to continue. Aqualis has seen renewables revenues grow from 7% of total in Q1’18 to 18% currently, and has a target of 50%
revenues share by 2025. We also expect a cyclical recovery in oil & gas, as both E&P capex and rig activity likely has bottomed out.

• Very low multiples, net cash and attractive dividend: We reiterate our view that valuation looks highly attractive, with EV/EBIT 8x/5x on our 2021-22
estimates and P/E 12x/8x. These multiples are very low for an asset light human capital business like AQUA, which has gained significant scale the past
two years through the acquisitions of Braemar and LOC. Current valuation is significantly below peer group median EV/EBIT of 21x/19x for 2021-22 and
P/E 27x/24x. The company is furthermore in a net cash position and targets 50-70% of EPS in dividends over time. We estimate dividend yield of 6-7% in
2021-22. We have now included Rejlers in our peer group, which at SEK 3bn market cap is closer to AQUA in size than giants like Sweco and Burea
Veritas. Rejlers and AQUA has much of the similar market exposure, while consensus EBIT margin forecasts of 5-6% for Rejlers is below our 7-10%
estimate for AQUA. Still, Rejlers trades at EV/EBIT 23x/19x for 2021-22 and P/E 27x/25x, on par with AF Poyry and Sweco, which we believe gives
positive read-across to the valuation of AQUA. We maintain Buy and NOK 15 target price on AQUA, and highlight the company as one of our top picks.
Redigert 18.08.2021 kl 13:20 Du må logge inn for å svare

Mye fin lesning her, talla, fremtiden, utbytte og markedet ser bra ut.
Synergiene ser ut til å slå inn:

"We are pleased to report our highest quarterly revenues and operating profit in the company’s history, in what is still a challenging market, and still expect significant cost synergies to be realized starting in the fourth quarter of this year."
Redigert 20.08.2021 kl 08:42 Du må logge inn for å svare

Solid prestasjon atter en gang fra Aqua! Merk at kostnadssynergiene er økt fra 3,5 MUSD til 4 MUSD og at de vil begynne å realisere de i q4 2021. Dermed kan man regne med ekstra 1 MUSD på bunnlinjen fra 2022 og utover :D

En herlig bekreftelse med dagens tall. SB1m er tydeligvis helt enig

Oppdatertring fra i dag etter tallene ble sluppet:
Good morning,



AQUA (Buy, TP NOK 15): Results continued to improve in Q2 as expected – LOC cost synergy target raised – EV/EBIT 8x/5x and P/E 12x/8x for 2021-22e is cheap

AqualisBraemar LOC reported Q2 EBIT adj. of USD 2.8m, in line with our estimate and marginally above consensus. Revenues of USD 38,3m represents 9% organic growth y/y and 4% q/q growth. EBIT adj. margin increased from 6.6% to 7.3% q/q (reported margin was 6.0%). Results thus continue to move in the right direction.
The company saw underlying improvement in revenues across the group, particularly in the renewables consultancy OWC. EBIT margins were high single digit in Europe, OWC and Longitude and double digit in Americas and Middle East. APAC was weak, mainly due to Covid-19 restrictions while improvement in Americas was partially offset by some tax reversals.
Estimated cost synergies from the LOC acquisition has been raised from USD 3.5m to USD 4m and will be realized from Q4’21. This follows the same pattern as with the Braemar acquisition, where synergy estimates increased following completion of the acquisition. Unlocking of cost synergies from Braemar has been a key reason for AQUA’s improved margins since mid-2020.
Cash position of USD 24.5m was down from USD 28.3m in Q1 as increased WC led to negative operational cash flow of USD 1.2m, in addition to USD 2.8m paid dividend and USD 1.7m repaid debt. The Board expects to declare another NOK 0.25 dividend per share during H2’21, which equals 5.4% dividend yield.
We expect to see continued improvement in revenues and margins the next two years, which should warrant higher valuation in our view. Four drivers are likely to result in continued improvements in revenues and margins: 1) Lifting of travel restrictions, 2) Synergies from the LOC and Braemar acquisitions, 3) Strong growth in renewables and 4) Cyclical recovery in oil & gas.
Aqualis trades at 8.1x/5.5x EV/EBIT on our 2021-22 estimates and P/E 12.2x/7.9x, which we find highly attractive. Peers trade significantly higher, and we believe the gap will narrow as Aqualis continues to report improving results.

Webcasten kommer kl. 14.00

Spennede å få gjennomgang av Summary and outlook, s28 i presentasjonen: https://abl-group.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Q2-2021-presentation_final.pdf

A pre-recorded audio webcast presentation of the second quarter 2021 results will be released today at 14:00 CET. To view the webcast, please visit AqualisBraemar LOC’s web site, www.abl-group.com.
The slide deck for the quarterly presentation is available on www.newsweb.no and www.abl-group.com.

De som har solgt lavt nå i det siste, kan ikke ha fått med seg dette.
"På tvers av segmentene shipping, olje og gass og fornybart har selskapet en ordrebok på 64,9 millioner dollar, opp fra 20 millioner dollar på samme tid i fjor.

– Jeg tror vi vinner noen store kontrakter ganske snart, forhåpentlig kan jeg si mer om det i løpet av tredje kvartal, sier adm. direktør David Wells under en forhåndsinnspilt kvartalspresentasjon publisert fredag ettermiddag. "
https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/tjenester/2021/08/20/7716479/doblet-topplinjen-svakere-bunnlinje

Selskapet er allerede lavt priset.
May-Liss
02.09.2021 kl 10:11 2654

Godt driv idag - har det kommet oppdatert analyse ??

Ja bra trøkk i dag. Usikker, kursmålene 14-15 har lagt en stund og burde være oppdatert. Men, bryter vi 9,68 ser det pent ut.

For et selskap, tjener penger og gir utbytte.
20 kr kan ikke være usannsynlig.
Skulle det vært priset slik som mye blir priset for tiden kunne vi sikkert lagt på en 0, de jobber jo med grønn teknologi.
Gg

Priser man AQUA på 2021 tall og med samme multipler som andre konsulentselskaper burde AQUA vært på rundt 18-20kr. Legger man til grunn kostnadssynergier på 4MUSD i 2022 og fortsatt organisk vekst så snakker vi nærmere 30kr.. Dette uten noen form for "grønn premiumprising " :)
May-Liss
03.09.2021 kl 13:50 2368

Hausta Investor øker med 500.000 aksjer

Stemmer. Braemar fikk nettopp sine siste 1 mill aksjer fra earn-out og solgte disse off-market til KRB Capital, Mustang Capital og Hausta Investor (alle 3 store aksjonærer i AQUA).
May-Liss
03.09.2021 kl 15:07 2311

I følge purehelp.no har Gross Management en snau 15% eierandel i KRB Capital. Gross Management er selskapet til styreleder Rødland i AQUA.
Meldepliktig ?

KRB Capital er et forvaltningsselskap som investerer uavhengig av eierne. Glenn Rødland eier en ikke-kontrollerende eierandel i KRB Capital og har ikke noen påvirkning over de investeringene KRB Capital gjennomfører. Dermed så er ikke disse handlene meldepliktig, men absolutt interessante med tanke på at de sikkert har gjort en god analyse i forkant av kjøpene :)
May-Liss
03.09.2021 kl 17:32 2229

Den "uavhengige" forvaltningen til KRB Capital er interessant;
Gross M /Rødland + Bjørn Stray + Sober AS eier til sammen over 36 % av KRB.
"Tilfeldigvis" er alle tre på topp 10 lista over aksjonærer i AQUA (eier til sammen over 25% av aksjene i AQUA) - ikke medtatt eierandelen til KRB Capital.
Kursen har steget 10% så langt i september - på 3 børsdager på større volum enn normalt. Hva er på gang ?

Tviler på at de vet så mye mer enn andre aksjonærer. Om det likevel skulle være noe på gang er Aqua et fantastisk selskap å kjøpe for en større aktør.
May-Liss
03.09.2021 kl 22:18 2123

Rune Eng som er styremedlem i AQUA eier 8,35 % via Eng Invest av KRB Capital.

Selvsagt har styreleder Rødland og styremedlem Eng informasjon om drift og status i selskapet (AQUA)
Redigert 03.09.2021 kl 22:20 Du må logge inn for å svare

Interessante funn May-Liss. Selskapet er underpriset, så det i seg selv vil gi grunn til kjøp. At det er hintet om muligheten for stor kontrakt ila Q3, reduserer heller ikke interessen. Og som sagt over, syn.effektene slår inn i slutten av året og inn i 2022. Jeg tror også det kan ligge til rette for økt utbytte i 2022. Men, kan også komme et nytt oppkjøp.
Soj
08.09.2021 kl 16:48 1640

Plutselig fikk denne fart på seg??? Noen som vet noe?

Fart? 0.10kr opp er vel ikke mye til fart. Men fortsatt meget underpriset
May-Liss
08.09.2021 kl 20:54 1556

Nærmere 15 % oppgang på en uke er vel «fart»……

Jo absolutt, det kan dere si. Men spørsmålet mitt blir da, hvorfor det ikke har vært "fart" tidligere. Gikk heldigvis over motstandsnivået og vi får håpe det går bedre fra her :) Ser større volum på kjøp gjennom en dag enn salg.

Ikke missforstå, er glad for oppgang. Men aksjen har ikke priset inn noe fremtid, så vi har mye å glede oss til og utbytter på toppen:)

For den interesserte
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wQRRccxB4N8