REC Silicon - Third Quarter 2018 Results

Sa2ri
REC 24.10.2018 kl 07:09 5208

REC Silicon - Third Quarter 2018 Results

Fornebu, Norway - October 24, 2018: REC Silicon ASA (REC Silicon) reported third
quarter 2018 revenues of USD 43.7 million, down from USD 58.9 million in the
previous quarter. The corresponding EBITDA during the third quarter was a loss
of USD 6.1 million compared to a loss of USD 9.6 million in the previous
quarter. Polysilicon sales volume for the quarter was 1,113 MT, a 46.4 percent
decrease from the second quarter, while inventory increased by 503 MT.

REC Silicon reported a cash balance of USD 41.0 million on September 30, 2018.
This represents a decrease of USD 1.4 million compared to June 30, 2018. Cash
outflows from operations was USD 1.7 million for the quarter.

Silicon gas sales volumes for the third quarter were 865 MT, a decrease of 5.8
percent compared to the second quarter. Silane gas prices were 1.3 percent
higher than second quarter. Third quarter semiconductor polysilicon production
was 296 MT, in line with guidance of 300 MT.

FBR facility in Moses Lake continued operated at approximately 25 percent
throughout the third quarter. FBR production was 1,170 MT, compared to 2,027 MT
during the second quarter when the facility operated at approximately 50 percent
capacity during May and for part of June. Lower volumes resulted in higher FBR
cash costs which were USD 15.1/kg compared to guidance of USD 15.9/kg.

For more information, please see the attached third quarter 2018 report and
presentation.

Morning Program:
The company will give a presentation at 8:00 am CET today at Høyres Hus
Konferansesenter, Stortingsgaten 20, Oslo, Norway. The presentation will be in
English.

A live webcast of the presentation can be accessed at www.recsilicon.com or with
the following link: http://webtv.hegnar.no/presentation.php?webcastId=97451338

It will also be possible to listen to the presentation through a conference
call.
Please make sure to dial in 5-10 minutes prior to the scheduled start time on
one of the following numbers:

Norway Dial-in (Tollfree/Freephone): 800 17131
Norway, Oslo (Dial-in Local): +47 2350 0187
United Kingdom (Dial-in Tollfree/Freephone): 0800 279 4827
United Kingdom (Local Dial-in Local): +44 (0)330 336 9401
United States (Los Angeles Dial-in Local): +1 323-794-2558
United States/Canada (Dial-in Tollfree/Freephone): 800-289-0459
Other international: +44 (0)330 336 9401

Please provide confirmation code 8177504 and state your name, company and
country of residence.

For further information, please contact:
James A. May II, Chief Financial Officer
Phone: +1 509 989 1023
Email: james.may@recsilicon.com

Nils O. Kjerstad
IR Contact
Phone: +47 9135 6659
Email: nils.kjerstad@crux.no

About REC Silicon
REC Silicon is a leading producer of advanced silicon materials, delivering
high-purity polysilicon and silicon gas to the solar and electronics industries
worldwide. We combine over 30 years of experience and proprietary technology
with the needs of our customers, with annual production capacity of more than
20,000 MT of polysilicon from our two US-based manufacturing plants. Listed on
the Oslo Stock Exchange (ticker: REC), the Company is headquartered in Fornebu,
Norway.

For more information, go to: www.recsilicon.com

This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to section
5-12 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act.

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/461818
Redigert 20.01.2021 kl 05:48 Du må logge inn for å svare
bokaj70
24.10.2018 kl 07:15 5137

Efter omstændighederne et resultat jeg tror vil berolige markedet.

Der er helt sikkert udfordringer men dem kender vi til hudløshed. Det vigtige er at REC tilpasser forretningen bog synes at have styr på økonomien også gennem 2019.

Let the trading begin.
Sa2ri
24.10.2018 kl 07:54 4916

SB1M er ute med en "first look" hvor de skriver følgende:

"REC Q3 2018 first look – EBITDA from silane gas 49% below estimate, weak figures

Conclusion
REC just reported Q3 2018 EBITDA of USD-6.2m versus our expected USD-1.8m and consensus expected USD-3.3m. The results are very weak in our view. Average polysilicon price dropped 16.9% in the quarter and the revenues from Moses Lake of USD6m was 56% below expectations. The most disappointing part is EBITDA from Butte (silane gas) at USD9m versus our expected USD18m. Silane gas price declined by 4.6% during the quarter and volumes were 4% below expectations. The cash position of USD41m is in line with our expected USD40m, but it is helped by a USD4m positive working capital movement. Management states that the goal is to maintain a cash balance above USD15m trough 2019 assuming current capacity. We argue that the company should shut down Moses Lake and find the comment negative.

YTD EBITDA contribution from Butte is USD41m (run rate USD55m), versus our estimated USD50m. Thus, we expect to reduce our 2019 EBITDA estimated of USD73m from Butte, resulting in a significant reduction in target price. As a sensitivity, if we reduce our estimated EBITDA from Butte to USD60m/annum, our target price would be reduced to NOK0.42/share from NOK0.7/share. Due to the price sensitivity in the silane gas market we will most likely reduce our EV/EBITDA from 6x. If it were reduced to 4x, it would further reduce our valuation to NOK0.17/share. Other costs of USD5m were slightly better than expected USD9m, but the comments above shows the severe impact weak results would have on our valuation.

We expect the share to trade significantly below the market today and the bonds with security in Butte should trade down as well.

What's new?
REC just reported 3Q18 figures

Our analysis
REC reported weak figures

Silane gas, the part that is supposed to keep this company afloat, delivered EBITDA 49% below expectations.

Our old valuation most likely assumes too high EBITDA from Butte (and EV/EBITDA multiple). We have added a worst case scenario showing that the equity value of REC could go below zero.

The equity value is highly sensitive to multiples

We expect to reiterate our Sell recommendation and reduce our target price following the Q3 2018 report.

Best regards,
Jonas Meyer
Equity Analyst"
bel68
24.10.2018 kl 08:05 4801

Ja ja du virker desperat til å finne analyser som er negativ .............et meget OK Q3 etter omstendighetene .........
Slettet bruker
24.10.2018 kl 08:31 4619


Antar "SMB" står for Short Members Bank.
Sa2ri
24.10.2018 kl 08:33 4594

ARC har også kommet med en "first look" etter dagens resultatfremleggelse og skriver følgende:

"Arctic Buy
Market Cap: NOK 1320m
Price/Target: NOK 0.5/NOK 1.0
EV/EBITDA 18: 33.3x
EV/EBITDA 19: 5.9x

Soft figures driven by lower achieved polysilicon / semiconductor prices

REC Silicon reports an EBITDA of USD -6.1m, behind both our estimate and consensus. This was partly driven by a soft result from the Butte plant, which delivered an estimated EBITEDA of USD 7.3m in the quarter, which brings the EBTIDA contribution from the plant to USD 32.0m. As such is an increased EBITDA in Q4 needed to reach or exceed the 2017 EBITDA level from the plant at around USD 43m. The soft figures from the group is a result of 20.5% lower achieved FBR polysilicon prices, lower semiconductor grade polysilicon prices and lower than expected and guided silane gas volumes. REC Silicon did however once again report a strong cash balance, as net cash flow in the quarter were USD -1m, mainly driven by improved working capital elements. Furthermore, REC reported a production of 1,200MT from The Yulin JV this quarter, somewhat below our expectation. Comments on the further outlook for the Butte plant and the Yulin JV should be key at the conference call at 08.00 CET.

· REC delivered an overall EBITDA of USD -6.1m, which is USD 4.1m and USD 2.8m below Artic and consensus expectations, respectively. The Butte plant which continues to deliver positive EBITDA, did not contribute as positive as expected and ended up at USD 7.3m.

· Guidance on Silane gas lowered from 3,675MT to 3,530MT for the full year. Apart from that, guidance from Q2 largely remains intact.

· Arctic Securities is hosting a management lunch presentation at our Oslo offices today at 13.00 CET, let me know if you would like to attend.

Best regards,
Daniel

Arctic Securities AS
Daniel Stenslet"
Sa2ri
24.10.2018 kl 08:35 4545

@bel68:

Jeg er over hodet ikke desperat, men deler det jeg mener kan ha interesse for de som er og/eller tenker på å bli aksjonærer i REC. Hvis du ikke liker faktaopplysninger, eller analyser fra ulike hold, er det bare å la være å lese det jeg deler.
Sa2ri
24.10.2018 kl 08:48 4351

Og her er en fra PAS:

"Q3’18 first take – EBITDA below consensus, stronger
cash development
REC Silicon just published its Q3’18 results, with an EBITDA loss of USD 6m, versus consensus at a USD 3m
loss and our estimate at a USD 5m loss. Revenues of USD 44m were well below estimates due to
polysilicon ASP, however on earnings somewhat offset by lower cash cost (USD 15.1/kg vs. USD 15.9/kg
cons). Net cash outflow in the quarter was only USD 1m, positively impacted by USD 4m working capital
release and USD 2m release of restricted cash. The company expects to maintain cash above USD 15m
through 2019 at current production rates. In sum, positive cash development in the quarter, though
earnings estimates should come down as a consequence of significant global polysilicon price headwinds
currently. We have a HOLD recommendation and a target price of NOK 0.8 for REC.
Deviation table:
Actual
Q3'17 Q2'18 Q3'18 Cons. Pareto Cons. Pareto
P&L
Revenues USDm 7 6 5 9 4 4 5 2 5 3 (16)% (17)%
Operating costs " (72) (69) (50) (55) (57) (10)% (13)%
EBITDA adj. " 4 (10) (6) (3) (5) nm nm
EBIT " (82) (370) (17) (24) (18) nm nm
EBIT adj. " (17) (30) (17) (24) (18) nm nm
Pre-tax profit " (120) (374) (20) (27) (22) nm nm
Net profit (reported) " (122) (374) (20) (17) (15) nm nm
Net profit (adjusted) " (14) (26) (14) (17) (15) nm nm
EPS (adjusted) USDc (0.6) (1.0) (0.6) (0.7) (0.6) nm nm
Segments/other key items
FBR MT 2,254 2,078 1,170 1,200 1,200 (3)% (3)%
Siemens production " 581 412 445 363 300 23% 48%
Total polysilicon production " 2,835 2,490 1,615 1,563 1,500 3 % 8 %
Polysilicon sales " 4,091 2,077 2,219 1,975 1,900 12% 17%
Silane gas sales " 904 918 865 900 900 (4)% (4)%
FBR cash cost USD/kg 10.4 13.4 15.1 15.9 15.9 (5)% (5)%
Free cash flow USDm 1 3 (8) (2) (9)
Cash balance " 8 8 4 2 4 1 3 3 23%
Source: Pareto Securities Equity Research, Company data, REC consensus poll
Q3'18e Deviation (%)
Fredrik Steinslien"
bel68
24.10.2018 kl 08:48 4338

Rart at du ikke la ut den negative analysen om gogl i går da som du selv sitter i da visst du vil opplyse alle om alt .......Rec blir gull etter å ha hørt TT på web-tv snart enighet med Kina inn i batteri dette blir gull ......
Sa2ri
24.10.2018 kl 08:52 4259

Denne tråden handler om REC, ikke GOGL. Det er ikke slik at jeg har tilgang til alle analyser fra alle meglerhus, men det har kanskje du?! Fint derfor om du legger ut det du har tilgang til slik at alle er like informert som det du er.
Slettet bruker
24.10.2018 kl 09:09 4138

Drit i alle analyser.
Det er framtiden som teller Fortiden har kjørt rec kursen ned til beinet. Derfor kan det bare gå opp opp opp. Ledelsen viser at de kan tilpasse kostnadene til inntektene.
Meget ansvarlig. Dårligere forhold internasjonalt siste årene må ta æren for kursutviklingen. Mye moro framover for oss som har holdt ut.
XL11
24.10.2018 kl 10:10 3898

Stå på Sa2ri, det er viktig med balansert info!
De som kjøper med begrunnelser som "det er sol som er fremtida", "det står om sol alle steder på nettet", "snart skal alle ha sol" og "shortmafiaen styrer kursen" osv osv, er de som taper penger hver eneste uke.
Sa2ri
24.10.2018 kl 10:14 3867

@XL11:

Spot on! Jeg er nok også ganske "tykkhudet" og innlegg som utelukkende er sludder og vås, eller ufundert babbel fra enkelte her inne "preller av som vann på gåsa".
bokaj70
24.10.2018 kl 10:18 3842

Hold nu k.... Hvis du ikke synes at det er interessant at læse analytikernes reaktioner, hvad enten de er positive eller negative, er du da den største klovn.


bel68
24.10.2018 kl 10:26 3780

Ja vet ikke hvem som er klovn jeg ............høre på husa som er kjøpt å betalt av short gjengen etter å ha hørt på TT så er jeg ekstrem positiv til Rec fremover opp no 6,5% på ingen volum short gjengen skal slite med å kjøpe igjen over 250 milioner aksje ....Lykke til
Randers
25.10.2018 kl 00:17 3466

Ehh.. ..SB1 har kursmål 40 øre nå - eller er ryktebørsen feil ??

..får satse på unge Meyer har vært tidlig på med noen flasker tomtebrygg. Skal til 80 øre først, osv......
Redigert 25.10.2018 kl 00:49 Du må logge inn for å svare
Sa2ri
25.10.2018 kl 07:13 3322

@Randers:

Ryktet er helt korrekt.
Odi.1
25.10.2018 kl 07:33 3254

Veien videre, mest sannsynlig :

I løpet av November 2018 kan skattemyndighetene fratre kravene til Skattekravet, etter at de har fått verifisert den nye informasjonen fra REC.

REC kan melde om lengre Fast avtaler for REC produkter.


Om ikke mange dagene vil REC måtte gjøre en SPLEIS i aksjene, denne vil SHORT unngå å sitte i med millioner av aksjer når dette inntreffer.
Vi vil få en Hysterisk Inndekning.
Husk at vi må OVER 1 KR for å unngå Spleis etter BørsLoven! ops ops …

Jum er i siget med å snitte ned, her vil alt under 1 kr være interessant de neste ukene. ps 1 kr pr aksje, er pålydende i REC .
Kjøpte seg 10 000 000 Nye aksjer i Går , husk han solgte 53 millioner aksjer i MAI til 1,37 ca :)

Yelin Tian -REC kan melde om suksessfull FBR produksjon i Q4 18.


Det kan brått meldes om salg/kjøp av tomt i Nærheten av REC fabrikk i USA for formålet : Batterifabrikk


…. PS ,om jeg ikke husker feil, sitter REC eller eventuelt JUM med noe eiendommer rundt der?, kan "huske" feil, men kom gjerne med info, om dere har noe...
Redigert 25.10.2018 kl 08:03 Du må logge inn for å svare