Frontline klar for rally!


Har fått kjøpssignal i FRO og er nå inne fra bunnen idag.
I USA har vi fått en fin dobbelbunn på dag chartet, tror vi har sett bunnen og aksjen er klar for turnaround.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/7eYDpMG1/
;o

Positivt fra Eagle Maritime i dag (helt klart riktig inngangspunkt for tank nå):

Tankers: VLCC rates continue to edge upwards, albeit by very low increments. Bunker prices have come up since what seemed like an endless period of WS31 fixtures on AG-East voyages, but the underlying sentiment is improving and WS37 is the highest marker seen since mid-May in Worldscale terms.

In the energy markets, wholesale prices for European natural gas keep setting new records, and in barrel of oil equivalent pricing has moved close to USD 160/bbl due to high demand and constrained supply.

This is likely to result in some switching with various energy agencies pointing to 0.5-1.5mb/d potential demand impacts which potentially could come on top of the expected rebound in demand (IEA expecting 4q21 demand for 98.8 vs 2q/3q of 95.1/97.2mb/d).

The switching is likely to entail both fuel oil switching for industry use and diesel for retail. Interestingly, crude remains the only energy related commodity with real spare capacity (both coal and natgas very short in supply), which in turn could result in higher than expected production (production deltas key driver of tanker demand) to meet potential energy shortages.
skuggen
22.09.2021 kl 21:22 6113

Kina vil slutte å finansiere kullprosjekter i utlandet. Da innbiller jeg meg oljeforbruket vil øke. Hvem vil tjene på det? Frontline. Hele verden bruker mer og mer energi.
Redigert 22.09.2021 kl 21:23 Du må logge inn for å svare
canarias
23.09.2021 kl 08:12 5824

Har kjøpt meg kraftig opp i Frontline de siste ukene her, tror tankmarkedet løsner snart for alvor.

Jeg også. Toppet med 1100 flere i går til 70.40

Smart valg.
Er selv også inne med 6500 stk.
Skal akkumulere så snart jeg får frigjort mer kapital fra andre aksjer.
auxe
23.09.2021 kl 12:19 5680

Ja Høstjakta på FRO har startet og snart går vi inn i Oktober og mere frakt av olje for hver mnd.


Tankratene stiger vider iflg Fearnleys:

VLCC AG - Kina $3552.0 Usd/dag Opp $855.00 Usd/dag siden i går. Dette er kvantesprang målt i prosent!




Flipper
23.09.2021 kl 12:52 5644

Mange gode momenter i dagens Finansavisen :

Oljeprisene stiger torsdag, godt hjulpet av ***strammere tilbud, lagertrekk *** i USA og bedre risikosentiment.

Ifølge statistikk fra Det amerikanske energidepartementets statistikkfløy (EIA) at amerikanske ***oljelagre falt med 3,5 millioner fat forrige uke til 414,0 millioner fat. På forhånd var det ventet et lagertrekk på 2,4 millioner fat ifølge Trading Economics.

– Oljeprisene stiger etter at *** amerikanske lagertall falt til sitt laveste nivå på siden oktober 2018 ***, sier senior analytiker Edward Moya i Oanda ifølge Platts.
Moya legger dessuten til at fundamentale forhold i markedet har snudd til mer bullish siden bekymringer rundt svakere utvikling i kinesisk økonomi har roet seg noe, samt prognoser som viser at tilbudsmangel på gass vil kunne lede til økt etterspørsel for olje.
Redigert 23.09.2021 kl 12:54 Du må logge inn for å svare

Mer oil demand (TW):

Shipowners and operators are moving to run their dual-fuel tonnage on fuel oil instead of LNG amid a gas price shock.

The moves come as LNG prices have rocked to triple that of the fuel's alternative choices.

Bunker suppliers said big name tanker players that have been among the first movers on LNG-fuelled vessels are now running that tonnage on fuel oil.

One shipowner said the price of LNG bunkers in Rotterdam is now around $1,400 per tonne. This compares to fuel oil at $500 per tonne.

"LNG is about three times the price of fuel oil on the basis of TTF," he said, referring to key European LNG price marker Dutch Title Transfer Facility.

Suppliers said the current price of LNG is more than twice as expensive as you would expect to be in a harsh winter. "We've been breaking record after record," one said.

Wholesale gas prices have rocketed on back of a cocktail of factors, including high demand. Inventories in Europe are particularly low as supplies were drawn east over last winter, as economies recover from the pandemic and as volumes from Russia decline.

Shipowners said it is "very difficult" for LNG sellers battling high prices at present.

One said suppliers are proving nervous about selling at anything other than TTF or gas-linked pricing which makes the product expensive for owners.

"At the moment LNG doesn't compete against conventional fuel," he said.

"It is making it very hard to sell the concept of LNG fuelling. Customers are saying gas is ridiculously priced why should I do that right now?"

Contract clauses

But switching decisions will be linked to individual contracts.

Suppliers said shipowners with oil price linked LNG supply contracts will be paying more normal prices and just hoping their seller is secure and is well hedged against the current hikes.

Those with gas or TTF-indexed contracts, however, will be looking to see if they have an obligation to take supplies, one seller said.

At the far end of the spectrum owners of mono-fuelled vessels which can only run on LNG could be facing difficult choices if they have gas-linked deals.

LNG bunker suppliers described it as "a difficult time" with shipowners and operators switching off from buying spot LNG volumes.

One told TradeWinds that even if shipowners do not have contractual clauses in their bunker supply contract that allow them to press pause on purchases, it might not be a smart move to insist on supplying them.

"If shipowners really start complaining about LNG being pushed to them, how beneficial is that to market developments in the long run?" he asked.

Allowing shipowners the opportunity to run on cheaper fuels cements the idea that having a dual fuel option is a hedge between two very different products, he said.

"This optionality could also work the other way around so having the option to run on both fuels is a very sensible thing to do as a shipowner in terms of risk management," the supplier said.

Passing on costs

One shipowner said that no-one will buy LNG bunkers at present unless they can guarantee on passing the additional cost through to their end-users.

He said that while this may work for containership operators with customers like Amazon and Ikea that are concerned about their green credentials, it was less easy for tanker owners.

"Unfortunately for oil traders they are not prepared to pay a premium to have their cargo shipped on a reduced emissions footprint vessel," he said.

Sellers and buyers are anticipating that the LNG price hike will be relatively short-lived.

"The expectation is that this is a temporary phenomenon," one seller said, pointing to forward price curves which show prices normalising again at the start of the second quarter of 2022.

Looking further out one shipowner identifies the low US LNG prices as a potential bright spot for companies with LNG dual-fuelled tonnage, providing they can work through the cost of reliquefaction and bunkering infrastructure.

This year the number of LNG dual-fuelled newbuildings are soared with owners of larger deepsea tanker, bulker and car carrier tonnage opting for the fuelling option as they seek ways to cut their carbon emissions.
Flipper
23.09.2021 kl 15:43 5481

Noterte meg dette og tenk mye over det.

Kina har bygget så mange kullkraftverk som er helt heseblesende.

Deres filosofi som er vurdert for veldig lang tid fremover, har etter min mening
som '' svar på '' den nye internasjonale Makt '' demonstrasjon. Kina ønske ikke
krig NÅ.

Kina kan lage nok energi med eget kull. men hvordan vil de dekke behoved for
cooking oil ?

Nettopp, import....

Ny trussel fra vesten, Re: Australias beslutning om å.bygge, ikke mindre enn 7 atom ubåter, samt
en ny Koalisjonspolitikk, har Kina '' ikke mistet ansikt ''

At Macro trekker ambassadører hjem fra Australia, US; UK ?
ser jeg som et politisk spill, og det har Macro visst hele tiden, men for, igjen, ikke la Kina
'' miste ansikt '' Nice way to do it, IMO

Damn, noen som kan fortelle meg Hvordan, når jeg bytter linje, at neste
IKKE begynner med Stor BOKSTAV ?

Nugatti
23.09.2021 kl 16:24 5449

Ja. Hva tror dere. Supersyklus på gang? Rekordlav flåtevekst de neste årene.

Ja, så endte kursen ikke overraskende igjen under 70 - og det på en knallblå dag ....

Har nedgangen noe med usikkerheten i Kina å gjøre???
Tøff
23.09.2021 kl 16:49 5461

Algoritmekjøring er mitt tips. Det samme skjedde i BWLPG. Det gjelder å få skviset ut flest mulig før den store oppgangen. Nå er det mange som har posisjonert seg. Derfor var det forholdsvis få av oss amatører som sto klar til å ta i mot. Da blir det kraftig fall. Jeg kjøpte på veien ned, men å treffe bunn er vanskelig. Skal ikke se bort i fra at vi er i 68 i morgen. Sitt stille i båten, er som regel et godt råd, men noen ganger må det trades.
Flipper
23.09.2021 kl 17:38 5387

More scrapping ?

Bulk Iron Ore Prices Storm Past $100

A tight supply and strong demand for steel in China have led to capesize bulker spot rates rising,
but increasingly high shipping and iron-ore costs may choke demand.

By Krystal Chia (Bloomberg) Iron ore’s roller-coaster ride in 2021 shows no signs of easing,
with prices ending an unprecedented slump to move sharply higher as investors monitor
simmering debt troubles at China Evergrande Group.

The developer’s onshore property unit said it reached an agreement with yuan bondholders
on an interest payment, offering some relief after fears over Evergrande’s financial stability
sparked a global flight from risk. China’s central bank also boosted short-term cash into the
financial system, helping steady commodity markets.

In Singapore, iron ore futures climbed more than 15%, surging back above $100 a ton from their
lowest close in 16 months. Events around Evergrande spooked the market earlier in the week and
the steelmaking material was already oversold, said Atilla Widnell, managing director of Navigate
Commodities.

Still, analysts warn that China’s steel sector faces prolonged headwinds. The steelmaking ingredient,
which was in the vanguard of this year’s commodities boom, has plunged 60% from a record above
$230 a ton in May. Curbs on steel output, alongside a property crackdown and concerns about a power
shortage, have hammered iron ore demand in China.

“With a continuous rollout of energy-consumption curbs, mill maintenance works have been
expanding, and volumes of construction steel, in particular, have slid massively,” said Haitong
Futures Co. analyst Qiu Yihong. Demand has also been disrupted by port congestion, Covid-19
cases, bad weather, and broader weakness in property, manufacturing, and automobiles, she said.

More Pressure
The iron-ore demand squeeze could continue as China’s now mature steel sector faces further caps
on production, which plunged to a 17-month low in August. Jiangsu — a province with an economy as
large as Canada’s — has curbed electricity supplies to firms including mills.

As a consequence, iron ore will come under more pressure, falling to $80 to $90 a ton heading into
next year, said UBS Group AG strategist Wayne Gordon.

“This is probably the last hurrah in terms of that fundamental growth in steel demand,” Australia &
New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. analyst Daniel Hynes said on Bloomberg Television on Tuesday.

The fallout has been wide-ranging. After the iron ore boom delivered record dividends to the world’s
top miners, BHP Group and Rio Tinto Group have since slumped as prices declined.

So far, iron ore has averaged about $178 a ton this year, according to Mysteel Global figures. UBS
now expects the full-year average to decline to $163 a ton and forecasts just $89 for next year.
Liberum Capital Ltd. is forecasting $93 a ton next year.

The biggest problem for China’s mills is uncertainty, according to an executive at one large steelmaker.
Output curbs are strict, but there is still the possibility of government stimulus, while producers are wary
of making iron ore purchases given the risk of further price declines, said the executive, who asked not
to be identified as he isn’t authorized to speak to the media. The surging price of metallurgical coal has
also made it harder for steelmakers to hedge.

As demand wanes, miners are rushing to export iron ore to meet full-year targets. Vale SA’s shipments
jumped 12% week-on-week, and Brazil cargoes should continue rising into the year-end, according to
vessel-tracking data from UBS. Port inventories, at 41-days worth of usage, have pushed down prices,
the bank said in a report Tuesday.

Still Profitable
The bearish outlook for iron ore has prompted UBS to cut its recommendation for Fortescue Metals
Group and Vale to sell. One smaller Australian producer was forced to suspend operations just after
one shipment.

Still, big miners remain profitable: mining costs at Rio Tinto, for example, were between $18 and $18.50
a ton this year.

“Today’s price, given where the cost base of the Australian producers’ sit, is still a very good price,
” said David Radclyffe, senior mining analyst at Global Mining Research Pty Ltd. “It wouldn’t have
been too long ago when we’d have said this is a good price for those producers.”

The contract in Singapore jumped to as much as $107 a ton, before trading at $106.40 by 6:04
p.m. local time. Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 6.3% higher, and steel futures in Shanghai gained, as trading in China resumed after a two-day public holiday.

Krystal Chia With assistance from Alfred Cang and James Thornhill.© 2021 Bloomberg L.P.


Har du aksjer her også?
Hvordan klarer du å sette deg inn i Frontline og borr når du bruker så mye energi og tid på Kahoot. Det er viktig å sette seg inn i papiret før kritikk.
Det må vel være noe du ikke hvet om fro og borr?
fro og borr har værrt de 2 selskapene jeg har fulgt mest mens kahoot er hobby investering som jeg bruker minimalt med tid på,men som gir gode gevinster.

Mer fra Eagle Maritime:

Tankers: There is finally some real optimism in the tanker market with rates edging higher by the day. Clearly, VLCC rates are still in the doldrums but continue to move in the right direction with AG-China runs now at WS38.5, the highest level since early January 2021.

With increasing volumes, upside risk through gas-to-oil switching (potential demand boost plus west-east arb), limited near-term deliveries and importantly what seems to be a more unified owner community makes us positive a strong rebound could materialize over the coming month.

Eastern buyers starting to seek cheaper sour crudes from the Atlantic basin, which should contribute in reversing the growing MEG share of VLCC cargoes and see avg. distances increase again.

Near-term owners are facing the decision to fix long and booking in much of their winter market or fix shorter. Given the rate levels, we expect to see more shorter fixtures near-term, but expect rates to push higher in the near term.

Suezmax also expected to benefit from VLCC spillover. Looking at the 4th quarter ships vs cargoes we have to add expectation into the mix which hasn’t been the norm over the past year. Additionally, MEG Suezmax enquiries have returned and vessels have been disappeared in bulk.
Nugatti
24.09.2021 kl 09:06 4902

24.9.2021, 07:13 · TDN Finans
TANK: 4 VLCC-SLUTNINGER TORSDAG, RATE AG-SINGAPORE +2,6%
Tønners
24.09.2021 kl 10:37 4782

Fra DN:

Volumer fra Midtøsten har ligget bak de foreslåtte produksjonsoppjusteringene fra Opec+ i august og september, på grunn av en kombinasjon av lavere produksjon mot faktiske kvoter samt høyere innenlandsetterspørsel. Fearnley Securities venter nå at begge disse faktorene vil reverseres, støttet av høyere aktivitet i inneværende måned enn sett tidligere.

Det fremgår av en oppdatering fra Fearnley Securities fredag.

Fearnley mener at med kinesiske National Day Holiday på trappene, kan vi vente mer volumer i markedet de kommende dagene.

"På samme tid har atlantiske volumer økt på fornyet kjøpsinteresse generelt, men også gjennom en gjenåpnet arbitrasje for østgående cargo på vei ut av Atlanterhavet, spesielt drevet av "gas-to-oil switching" og fastere etterspørsel, skriver Fearnley Securities som legger til at det også er forventninger om en fjerde batch med importkvoter for uavhengige kinesiske raffinerier som kan bidra til økt kjøpsinteresse.

Fearnley trekker frem at i oljefatekvivalenter er gass i Europa og Asia nå priset over 150 dollar pr fat, altså dobbelt så mye som dagens oljepris.

"Med oljeetterspørselen allerede ventet å innhente seg med nesten 4 millioner fat pr dag fra andre- til fjerdekvartal 2021, vil en potensiell boost på etterspørselssiden gjennom "gas-to-oil switching" kunne tillate akselererte produksjonsøkninger for å møte kortsiktige krav", mener meglerhuset som peker på at i motsetning til andre råvarer som det er mangel på, så har olje ekstra produksjonskapasitet som kan møte den inkrementelle etterspørselen.

Fearnley Securities oppgraderte tanksektoren til kjøp tilbake i juli, og meglerhuset ser fortsatt verdi i sektoren med flere positive katalysatorer fremover. DHT, Frontline og Teekay Tankers trekkes frem som toppvalg.

"Økte volumer fremover, oppsiderisiko gjennom "gas-to-oil switching", og det som ser ut til å være en mer unison front blant rederne gjør oss positive til at en sterk innhenting kan materialisere seg over de kommende månedene", skriver Fearnley.

Ratene opp hver dag jo, her er det ikke noe å vente på nå.
Det er bare å GØNNE PÅ!
Flipper
24.09.2021 kl 15:26 4570

Hva man sa under finanskrisen om de største bankene
I USA

TO BIG TO FALL


To bail out or not to bail out:
China’s Evergrande dilemma

Believe it when see it – Not a slam dunk as I see it.

China will, either use shell companies ( as they
they’ve done ) In the past with tanker trade. Bypassing
illegitimate trade with no concern whatsoever insurance
for Hull & Machinery, but most Important P & I insurance
which insurance, first of all, for Crew’s safety on the ships.

An agreement with Iran might stop, costly bypassing
sanctions with Legitimate tonnage and ‘’ might ‘’ result in
more demolition.

Ref their recent ‘’ pledge ‘’ not to finance … abroad LOL

MY BET is New Bond Holders will line up ‘’ en mass ‘’ to
Buy Max of what is available Bonds for sale, from China’s
‘’ cleanup ‘’ of a large debt.

Analysis: For Xi and China Evergrande, a delicate balancing act.

Reference to this:

Evergrande's borrow-to-build model was enabled by a government reliant on property sales for revenue and unwilling to bite the bullet on runaway indebtedness for fear a collapse in prices would have devastating consequences for a country in which property accounts for 40% of household wealth, analysts, academics and economists say.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/xi-china-evergrande-delicate-balancing-act-2021-09-24/

Flipper







Nugatti
24.09.2021 kl 17:04 4461

FRO kraftig opp i US 🚀

Fra Arctic:

Tankers: Still waiting for the morning, but getting closer!
Curiously (to us), the drama taking place in global energy markets has yet to be reflected in tanker spot rates, which remain near OPEX levels for most segments. Below the surface, however, activity has picked up and VLCC rates have at least moved into positive territory. We continue to foresee positive changes from Q4 onwards as global oil production is set to begin surge of as much as 5 mbd through 2022. That, in turn, should reverse the drop in global oil shipments since the Covid crisis struck and start a normalization process for freight rates.

Det blir bedre tider for VLCC, og dette blir bra for Frontline.
Kursen kryper oppover nå, og senere vil FRO utbetale utbytte igjen…
canarias
28.09.2021 kl 08:35 2929

Frontline er virkelig rause på dividenden Trendline, så vi kan nok se frem til hyppige utbytter når Frontline kommer i posisjon til å betale dividender igjen.
Flipper
28.09.2021 kl 16:19 2733

Foreslår at vi fra nå av bruker new headline, ellers blir det mye rot, samt at overskriften er mer adekvat for fremtidige innlegg jfr.
OPEC & OPEC+

Ny Headline

Vil OPEC åpne slusene 4. oktober?

VLCC marginalt opp i dag: TD3C-TCE $/DAY $4745.0 +$275.00 (AG - China)


Voldsomt god avslutning i dag👍🏻Nå starter rally Frontline for fullt☺️
canarias
29.09.2021 kl 17:05 2273

Her har jeg øket siste ukene og er fullinvestert i Frontline og Hunter Group.
Ser frem til Frontline igjen kan betale solide dividender.
thypoon
29.09.2021 kl 17:18 2268

Nå går Frontline og tank over dammen!!! Fro 9.05 og stigende!!!

Hegu
29.09.2021 kl 18:35 2100

Teknisk analysevideo.
I de seneste er dage er olieaktierne steget fint sammen med oliekursen i et marked, der ellers har været surt og rødt.
Aktiespecifikt: Equinor, Frontline, Okeanis og BW LPG
https://www.proinvestor.com/boards/97385/Saa-stiger-olien-Men-kan-det-fortsaette?

Er ikke FRO blitt unormalt dyr? Det tjenes knapt penger og rederiet prises til 1,2 x NAV. Er ikke det uvanlig når det gjelder shipping? Tidligere pleide FRO være volatil og stupte gjerne på negative meldinger. Dessuten har ikke denne forventede oppgangen i tank vært meldt i svært lang tid uten at det skjer?

Frykter det ikke er noe oppside igjen når de gode tiden endelig kommer.
Redigert 29.09.2021 kl 19:33 Du må logge inn for å svare
auxe
29.09.2021 kl 19:35 1992

Det skjer nu :) Høstjakta er i gang
Redigert 29.09.2021 kl 19:36 Du må logge inn for å svare
Schenk
29.09.2021 kl 19:39 1972

Hvordan priser du en aksje? Etter siste måneds regnskap? Som de fleste andre treffer jeg ikke bunn, men så lenge vi vet ratene skal mye opp veldig snart er det på overtid å gå inn nå…Her er det forventninger om fremtiden som styrer kurs!