Såvidt jeg har lest informasjonen på denne tråden, er det stort sett større skip, som er kontrahert for levering mellom 2023 og 2025, mens det er lite kontrahering av feedere. Hvor Argus har det fra at det er kontrahert FOR MANGE store skip, skulle vært interessant å vite. Du må ikke stole på analytikere og journalister med agenda. De lyver verre enn Putins nikkedukker.

Jeg gjemmer ikke på artikler og innlegg på tråden, så jeg jeg har ikke tall,. Men det har vel vært en almen oppfatning her inne at linere har opplevd mange nok kontraheringer til at antall skip totalt vil øke på tross av sterkere marked og skraping. Likevel opplever enkelte rederier høye rater. Du har sikkert fått med deg at enkelte selskaper har kontrahert opptil seks skip av gangen - av store skip.

Feedere derimot opplever ikke engang tilstrekkelige kontraheringer til å fylle etterspørselen de neste par årene. Derfor de høye ratene.

Men siden du er uenig i dette, har du sikkert sikrere informasjon enn det jeg har, så du kan sikkert komme opp med talll som motbeviser mine anførsler!

Du bringer inn begrepet "liner" med en forutsetning om at disse er store skip. Definisjonen er heller at de går i bestemte rutemønstre og behøver ikke være containerskip i motsetning til såkalte "tramp" skip, som tar oppdragene, som de kommer og også kan omfatte containerskip. Men som nevnt; hittil foreligger ikke statistikk over overkontrahering og om noen redere bestiller flere om gangen for levering over flere år, har ikke dette noe med overkontrahering å gjøre. Slike antydninger er ikke annet enn "bassing".

Det kan virke som begrepene blandes litt. Slik jeg forstår det er det linere som typisk chartrer/leier skip, store eller små, til relativt faste handelsruter mellom aktuelle havner. MPCC m.fl er eiere/redere, også kalt "tonnage providers". Rederne bestiller nye skip ut fra sin markedsvurdering til enhver tid. Det er riktig at det har vært en større nykontrahering i segmentet over feeders, typisk oppover fra 3500teu, men jeg opplever ikke at konsensus er overkontrahering her. Økende horisont på forward fixings & særs lukrative kontrakter på 3-5 år, bør være god indikator for containermarkedet fremover.

Her er jeg helt enig med deg. CB har imidlertid tidligere i selskapspresentasjon antydet at det kanskje er kontrahert litt for mye blant de største skipene, og litt for lite blant feedere. Mintzmyer har vært innom lignende synspunkter.

Klippet fra morgendagens DN side 6:
«Dobling av drivstoffprisene og manko på containere, har sendt sjøtransportprisene opp 25–30 prosent siden januar, ifølge en av verdens største transportører. – Dette er dessverre bare starten, mener Schenker-direktør Christian Flatum.»

Meget god artikkel om situasjonen i containermarkedet. Ikke rart CEO holder tilbake skip som kunne vært sluttet på nye kontrakter. Kan bli heftige rater fremover. Var det noen som mente containerfesten var på hell?

Her har du det, Velkjent!

Mintzmyer og Constantin Back: Bedre referanser for hva jeg anførte, får du ikke tak i.

Og kalle meg for en baisser, får nok mange til å le. De fleste vil nok hevde det motsatte…..

https://e24.no/naeringsliv/i/0G7W3G/evergreen-skip-grunnstoette-i-usa
Evergreen fortsetter å gjøre sin del for å holde markedet hett :D

"Å antyde at det kanskje er kontrahert litt for mange store i forhold til de små skipene", er da ikke det samme som overkontrahering? Bare en konstatering av at contraheringene, som er gjort, ikke er like balansert i alle segmenter og ikke berører segmentet MPCC opererer i, og understreker de positive utsiktene for dette. Å bruke en slik uttalelse mot containermarkedet generelt, er ikke annet enn baissing. Forøvrig påstås det at en god latter forlenger livet, og for en gamling, som meg, kan det hende jeg dermed får oppleve de positive utsiktene.

Sjåførstreik i Spania
https://container-news.com/trucking-strike-in-spain-fears-of-container-transport-disruption/

Streikefeber i år?
- US vil mulig ha havnearbeider streik til sommeren
- Contracted truckers i US går jo konk på oljeprisene som er, kanskje kommer det noe fra den kanten også
- Indiske havnearbeidere truer med streik
= Skipene får ikke lempet av lasten og det blir ytterligere logistikk problemer og flaskehalser --> rater opp

https://container-news.com/indian-port-unions-renew-strike-threat-amid-cargo-demand-growth/

Og det til tross for en dieselpris på 18.70. Jeg befinner meg i Spania for tiden. Syd for Marbella - med dieselbil.

https://splash247.com/ship-queues-lengthen-at-major-chinese-ports-as-covid-cases-escalate/

Hva er grensen for å være et feedership i teu. Jeg registerer f.eks at X-press feeders, som kaller seg et container feeder carrier har bestilt skip på 7000 teu.
Et annet spørsmål, Det blir henvist til Alphaliners list mht hvilken ranking i størrelse disse selskapene har. totalt i verden. Jeg slo opp denne listen, men fant ikke vårt selskap der. Hvorfor ikke?:
https://alphaliner.axsmarine.com/PublicTop100/

Står oversiktlig forklart på MPCC sine nettsider --> https://www.mpc-container.com/company/container-shipping/

Så kan du kikke selv! https://www.mpc-container.com/fleet/

Ok, takk for tilbakemelding. MPC har da en annen definisjon på feeder containerskip enn dette selskapet da som kaller seg et feeder selskap og kjøper inn nye skip på 7000TEU. Bare synes det var merkelig.:
http://www.x-pressfeeders.com/about
Jeg visste størrelsen på vårt selskap meget godt, mitt spørsmål var hvorfor det ikke var med i den nevnte oversikten.

Selv om et rederi historisk sett har vært et feeder-rederi, så hindrer ikke det rederiet å kontrahere skip som faller utenfor feeder-kategorien. Man skal være klar over at pga de store problemene de store containerskipene opplever i havnene som kan betjene slike kjemper, så han flere aktører begynt å seile feedere og skip som er noe større enn feedere, på distanser som normalt betjenes av de store skipene. Jeg kjenner ikke historien bak X-press feeders og rasjonale for å kontraherer et containerskip på 7000TEU, men jeg vil ikke utelukke at rederiet har tenkt å benytte det til et annet formål enn regional containertransport. Men dette er kun høyttenkning.

Takk for svar. Det synes jeg var en bra forklaring-

Helgrønt over hele fjøla - ratene fortsetter å klatre 👌
https://www.vhbs.de/index.php?id=28&L=1

Ja, særlig 12 mnd. for 1700 TEU, som steg nesten 2%. Det er i "the ballpark" for MPCC, så trykket øker.

Banchero veke 10 med solide slutningar!

Vessel's Name Built TEUs TEU@14 Gear account Period (mos) Rates ($)
Seasmile 2013 5071 3600 no Fixed to ZIM 36 m $70,000/d
Zhong Gu Jiang Su 2010 4963 3170 no Extended to BAL 3 - 4 m $210,000/d
Vela 2009 4258 2800 no Fixed to ZIM 60 m $43,250/d
Confidence 2021 1091 690 no Extended to ONE 20 - 24 m $34,000/d

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Bancosta-Weekly-2022-10.pdf

Det var spørsmål om hvorfor MPCC ikke var med i denne flotte oversikten over rangering av verdens containerlinjer. https://alphaliner.axsmarine.com/PublicTop100/
Svaret er så enkelt som at MPCC ikke driver egen linjetrafikk men leier ut til linjerederiene på "alphaliner" sin oversikt.
MPCC sine fartøy befinner seg inne i rubrikken - "Chartered"

Denne listen med underselskaper, gjør oversikten enda mer komplett:

Consolidated subsidiaries

Maersk includes Maersk, Hamburg Sud, Alianca, Sealand Asia, Sealand Americas, Sealand Europe & Med
MSC includes WEC Lines
CMA CGM Group includes CMA CGM, APL, ANL, CNC, CoMaNav, Containerships, Feeder Associate System, Mercosul Line
COSCO Group includes COSCO Shipping, OOCL, Shanghai Pan Asia Shipping, New Golden Sea Shipping, Coheung, Diamond Line
Hapag-Lloyd includes NileDutch
Evergreen Group includes Evergreen Line, Italia Marittima
Zim (ZISS) includes Gold Star Line
PIL (Pacific International Lines) includes Advance Container Line, Mariana Express Lines
IRISL Group includes IRISL, HDS Lines, Valfajre Eight Shipping, Khazar Shipping
Sinokor Merchant Marine includes Heung-A Line
Transworld Group includes Transworld Feeders, Balaji Shipping, Shreyas Shipping
Shanghai Jin Jiang Shipping includes Shanghai Hai Hua
Grimaldi (Napoli) includes Atlantic Container Line, Finnlines
Swire Shipping includes China Navigation, Polynesia Line, Pacifica Shipping
FESCO includes FESCO ESF
Unifeeder includes Unimed Feeder Services
Peel Ports includes BG Freight
Boluda Lines includes Naviera del Mercosur
Neptune Pacific Direct Line (NPDL) includes Pacific Direct Line

Bra oversikt!

Ellers går det rykter om at M/V =EVER FORWARD= som sitter på fast grunn i Baltimore skal skifte navn til =NEVER FORWARD=. Syntes passende, da =EVER GIVEN= grunnstøtte i Suez, ble den jo raskt kalt =EVER STUCK=...

Her er en artikkel fra Seekingalpha.com hvor de tar for seg Danaos og ZIM og forklarer hvorfor analytikerne tar feil.
Artikkelen kunne like gjerne vært skrevet om MPC. Jeg limer inn hele artikkelen, da de som regel forsvinner bak betalingsmur.
Den er så lang at den må deles i 2, og dessverre blir ikke grafer med her. Interessant for de som gidder å lese så mye :)

ZIM Integrated Puts A Dividend Stamp On Danaos' Earnings Estimate Mismatching Reality
Mar. 15, 2022 8:07 AM ETDanaos Corporation (DAC), ZIM59 Comments43 Likes
Summary
Mr. Market continues to play catch-up with Danaos' and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services' underlying results.
We break down the mismatch between analyst estimates and our expected results for the two companies going forward.
We remain very bullish on both Danaos and ZIM.
This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Wheel of Fortune. Learn More »
A Quick Recap
In our Wheel of Fortune Service, we have been bullish on the containership market for quite some time now. Amongst our favorite names in the space are Danaos Corporation (DAC) and ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM), which over the past couple of years have generated monster returns for us following record market rates and profit-generation levels.
Our view over the past few quarters has been that both companies (similar to other shipping names) remain consistently undervalued. With every new earnings report, Mr. Market is playing catch-up with both companies' extraordinary results. Wall St. analysts have been constantly way off Danaos' and ZIM's approaching results, leading to strong beats and relatively predictable stock price catch-up patterns that acquainted investors can take advantage of.
Following Danaos' and ZIM's Q4 results, we believe that, once again, both companies remain substantially undervalued. We are especially keen on the relationship between Danaos and ZIM. We believe Mr. Market has yet to realize how much the former is about to benefit from the latter's dividends.
What's Going On
The truth is that the containership market can be very cyclical. Investors have constantly feared that the current euphoria will eventually fade out, which should somewhat explain Danaos and ZIM's constant undervaluation.
This was especially the case last quarter, between September and December, when rates had flattened or somewhat retreated, favoring this case. However, as we had noted, 1) Danaos' long-term charter contracts will keep producing robust, record cash flows for quite some time even if rates were to decline in the short term, and 2), even if rates were to be halved, both companies would remain cash cows, and likely still undervalued on a medium-term investment basis.
Fortunately, not only rates didn't move lower but they have been, in fact, breaching new records amid excellent market conditions.
As ZIM's management has illustrated, demand will continue to outpace growth in supply this year. Further, possible supply chain bottlenecks, scrapping, and IMO (International Maritime Organization) regulations that are expected to come in 2023 should help offset supply growth in 2023-2024.
Why Danaos Will Smash Wall St. Estimates
We have been particularly interested in the relationship between Danaos and ZIM. ZIM's forthcoming dividends to be paid to Danaos have been apparently ignored in Mr. Market's earnings expectations. In fact, ZIM is increasingly evolving into Danaos' fat piggy bank, set to substantially boost its earnings.
We have previously demonstrated why analyst estimates contradict reality. Let's check if this is still the case.
Danaos' Fleet Employment
Danaos' existing fleet employment virtually guarantees that the company will keep producing record profits at least for the next couple of/few years. Take Danaos' 11 2,200-2,600 TEU vessels, for instance. As you can see, the new rates kicking in H1-2022 are, on average, around double their current ones.
This applies to several others of Danaos' vessels. Take, for instance, the company's 13 8,500-9,600 TEU vessels, whose new rates kicking in through Q3-2022 are, on average, almost double their current rates.
The existing charters for the total fleet have an average charter duration of 4 years, with some of the charters extending to 2029 (I have trimmed the charts shorter in the images to enhance clarity).
The company is set to generate record EPS through 2023, even if it were to recharter some of its existing calendar gaps at notably lower rates than the existing ones. Better yet, compared to last quarter, we now know that this could hardly be the case as rates have furthered rallied since, as we mentioned earlier.
The ZIM Equity Stake
Yet, Danaos has attained a supplemental earnings growth catalyst going forward. Specifically, Danaos' stake in ZIM following its updated dividend policy is set to feed heavy quarterly payments to the company, additionally strengthening its total net income.
As of December 31st, Danaos held an equity stake of 7,186,950 ordinary shares of ZIM, which was at the time valued at $410.4 million based on ZIM's then price of $57.17. As of writing this article, ZIM's stock price stands at $78.91, boosting Danaos' equity value in the company by 38%.
Discussing the possibility for future stock buybacks and what would be Danaos' ideal cash pile to start repurchasing shares, CEO John Coustas' response included the following:
Maybe some people when they look on the amount of cash and marketable securities, which is, I don't know, in excess of $0.5 billion, it's not that we're sitting on half $0.5 billion of cash. I mean, the vast majority of that is, let's say, ZIM shares. And to be honest, we believe that there is substantial upside in our ZIM shareholding. So there is no point in kind of swapping the ZIM shareholding with the now shares at this moment.
This is consistent with Mr. Coustas' view during the Q3 earnings call when he had commented that:
We believe that the ZIM shares are actually undervalued. [...] I think, for the time being, we are done with our sales. We are going to wait also, to see ZIM results. But when, practically, from the guidance which they are giving, you have market cap, which is equivalent to 2021 EBITDA. It's obviously a very cheaper stock.
Now, ZIM's adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2022 came in at $7.1-$7.5 billion. While I believe that guidance is going to be boosted in the coming quarter based on the current rates, if we assume ZIM achieves $7.5 billion in adjusted EBITDA, the stock's valuation multiple on this metric is just 1.25. Obviously, still very cheap. Combined with ZIM's juicy dividend policy, which is about to feed Danaos with fat quarterly dividends, Danaos' management is more than likely to hold their ZIM shares tightly. This brings us to the piggy-bank theme.
The ZIM Dividend's Effect On Danaos' Earnings
ZIM retained its net leverage at 0X in Q4. Hence following its remarkable Q4 results, ZIM's net cash position grew to $504 million, despite allocating $344 million towards CAPEX and $299 million towards dividends.
Hence, with rates remaining at record levels, ZIM remains a debt-free cash-cow, ready to distribute fat dividends that will greatly boost Danaos' bottom line.
As a reminder, here's ZIM's dividend policy:
ZIM is to pay a quarterly dividend between 30% to 50% of its annual net income to shareholders.
How it works:
ZIM's payout for each of the first three quarters of the year is going to be about 20% of its net income produced in each quarter.
Each fourth quarter once a year, ZIM is going to pay a dividend so that the cumulative distribution amount will sum between 30% to 50% of its annual net income.
In line with ZIM's dividend policy, the company declared a dividend of about $2.04 billion, or $17.00 per share, representing around 50% of its 2021 net income on a cumulative basis, including the $2.50 per share interim dividend paid on account of Q3-2021 results.
During Q4, Danaos' adjusted net income per share came in at $6.10, which excludes the change in fair value of its investment in ZIM of $52.2 million.
This figure includes, however, the $16.2 million in dividends received from ZIM. But here's a special note regarding this amount. Remember how most of us ZIM shareholders were irritated by the 25% Israeli dividend withholding tax on ZIM's dividends? Well, Dannaos has set up an entity in Singapore to receive ZIM's dividends, dropping the dividend withholding tax rate at 10% (My thanks to J Mintzmyer for having Danaos' management confirm this probably earlier than planned).
The math works out as well. Danaos holds 7,186,950 shares times $2.50 times 0.9 equals $16,170,637.5 ($16.2 million in the earnings report). Danaos numbered 20.62 million diluted shares at the end of Q4. Hence, out of the $6.10 in adjusted diluted EPS, around $0.78 per share was attributed to ZIM's dividend ($16.2 million in dividends/20.62 million shares).

Del 2:
Here's where we confirm that Wall St. estimates are once again behind the curve.
Analysts' EPS estimate of $6.11 for Q1 is way out of place. We know the company will generate significantly higher EPS than Q4's $6.10 for a fact since 1) vessels have been contractually locked at higher rates 2) ZIM's Q4 dividend is 4.8 times higher than its Q3 dividend.
You may argue that ZIM's dividend was only recently declared, and therefore, analyst estimates have yet to be updated. However, this is not the case since ZIM's dividend policy is out there, and combined with market rates, analysts could have easily forecasted a Q4 dividend from $ZIM of at least $12 - $15 even before ZIM declared the $17 dividend per share for Q4. This just goes to show you how undercovered Danaos is in Wall Street and why investors can repeatedly take advantage of this trend (low estimates, consistent beats) to outmaneuver the market.
So what should we expect in Danaos' upcoming report? Well, by multiplying Danaos' 7,186,950 shares in ZIM with the Q4 DPS of $17 and then embedding the 10% dividend withholding tax, Danaos should receive around $109.9 million in ZIM dividends. Assuming a constant share count for Danaos (could be marginally higher, but not significantly), the company will receive around $5.33 per share from ZIM's dividends alone. And yes, analysts expect $6.10 from Danaos' total adjusted EPS (analyst estimates target adjusted earnings).
Hence, based on the consistent pattern comprising soft analyst estimates and market-beating earnings reports, we remain strongly bullish on Danaos. This is, of course, on top of our fundamental belief that Danaos is undervalued in the first place.
What About ZIM's estimates
While our case is concluded above, here's something to consider regarding ZIM's valuation too as we advance.
Contrasting Danaos, ZIM operates mainly on the spot market. Wall St. analysts expect the company will generate EPS of $38.77 this year. Again, we believe that analysts are behind the curve, but at this point, estimates are so flawed it's funny. ZIM generated EPS of $40.3 in FY2021. Now consider that ZIM headed into FY2022 with rates that are triple those it headed into FY2021 while purchasing several second-hand during the year vessels that are incrementally contributing to earnings.
ZIM could very reasonably generate FY2022 EPS over $57 (Q4 run-rate despite rates even further increasing since). In any case, the $40.3 EPS estimate implies a 180-turn of the current trend and massive declines in rates, which is highly improbable for the reasons discussed at the beginning of the article.
In any case, assuming dividends equal 40% of a (could be 50% but let's be prudent) already prudent FY2022 EPS estimate (let's agree on $55 for now), Danaos would be receiving around $6.90 per share from ZIM's dividends alone.
I am not going deeper into ZIM now to remain on-topic, but just something extra to have in mind.
Wheel of FORTUNE is a most comprehensive service, covering all asset-classes: common stocks, preferred shares, bonds, options, currencies, commodities, ETFs, and CEFs.

Ser Goldman Sachs kjøper seg opp i MPCC:

https://newsweb.oslobors.no/message/556668

Takk Kbkristi

De har jo nydt godt av velvillige selgere.
Siden 15.2, da kursen sto i kr 27,70, har 962 aksjonærer forlatt Mpc.
Med en kurs nå på 27,60 så kan en lure på om de har tjent noe i andre papirer på sin utgang?

Da tar ein sats på nytt og gjør som Goldman Sachs og flagger inn det største volumet undertegna nokon gang har satt i MPCC. Har hatt ferie fra heile Oslo Børs og aksjeverden. I grunn deilig. Brukte gårsdagen på å lese meg opp på indexer, marked, relevante nyheter, konkurrenter, tilgjengelig tonnasje etc. og finner ingen bedre case enn gode gamle MPCC. Så da har ein mønstret på, i den tro at trenden i aksjen og verdensbildet holder på å snu i positiv retning igjen.

Fra Pareto i dag:

Containers: Another big container order – prices going up
• According to shipping press, CMA CGM is placing another massive order for larger containerships. First, they have added four 7.4k TEU dual-fuel ships at Samsung for USD 123m/vessel – up from USD 118m earlier. Delivery 2024+
• Second, they are also reportedly close to a huge order at Jiangnan in China, for nine 23k teu dual-fuel ships at USD 230m per ship. Vessels like these cost USD 155m when Hapag Lloyd ordered in Q2 last year – showing how serious shipyard inflation we currently see
• Obviously – fantastic news for all other types of shipping; capacity is taken out and prices going up – against a backdrop of an ageing fleet and limited orderbook at a point in time where we need orders to meet new legislations

Lurar på kven som har solgt om Goldman Sachs plutseleg er på topp 50 lista på 3. plass med ca. 22,5 mill aksjar.
Før børsmeldinga (dagens Tek Investor lsite) var dei ikkje på topp 50 ein gong.

Litt spekulativt: Kan det vere ein storeigar som gjer eit nedsal med Goldman Sachs som mellomledd?
Ser ikkje elles korleis dei plutseleg skal få tak i så mykje aksjar. Har ikkje vore nær nok omsetjing til det siste dagar.
Tankar?

Det betyr vel at det er gjennomført blokksalg uten påfølgende kursmassakre som sist, det er i så fall meget posistivt.

Velkommen ombord igjen, VolumOpp! Vi får håpe du ikke blir akterutseilt med det første!

Jeg synes å se en ny kurstrend, noe som tilsier at flere ønsker å posisjonere seg før 24. mars.

Nokon med tilgang?

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/finance/box-faith-goldman-sachs-reveals-68m-stake-in-mpc-container-ships/2-1-1185217

Det blir spennende å se hvem som har solgt ja! Jeg merker meg at The Bank of New York Mellon har 7 konti inne på topp 50, med tilsammen over 31 mill aksjer. Kan det være en som har kjøpt opp stille og rolig gjennom flere konti, for nå å samle de etter å ha rundet 5%?

Edit: Ikke tilgang til TradeWinds dessverre, men liker beskrivelsen av MPCC, Boxship cash cow... :-)

Relatert til Goldman Sachs, så mener jeg det står noe ala følgende (ellers er det bare hva tidligere investorer har gjort):

Box faith: Goldman Sachs reveals $68m stake in MPC Container Ships
US investment bank becomes fourth-largest shareholder in boxship cash cow


US investment banking giant Goldman Sachs has revealed a significant stake in MPC Container Ships (MPCC) as boxship markets continue to boom.

In a filing, the bank stated it had crossed the 5% threshold for disclosure at 5.08%, or 22.53m shares.

This chunk is worth NOK 610.6m ($68.1m) at Wednesday’s price of NOK 27.10 per share in Oslo, up 0.56%.

Goldman Sachs becomes the fourth largest shareholder in the German feeder ship specialist, according to MarketScreener.

Star Capital Partnership remains first on 16.2%, with MPCC director Axel Schroeder next on 12.8% and Norwegian shipowner Arne Blystad third with 6.62%.

Goldman Sachs did not previously appear in the top 10 shareholders with stakes above 1.58%.

The bank has been contacted for comment.

For en gledens dag: MPC opp 2 %, mens Ernst Russ stiger 15 %!

Dette viser vel med all tydelighet at containermarkedet generelt - og feedermarkedet spesielt - ikke på noen måte var over toppen og at ratene bare fortsetter å spisse seg.

Og når Goldman Sachs går inn og overtar vel 5 % av aksjene til vel 600 millioner kroner så og si i ett jafs, da skal man være våken. Her skjer det noe!

Posisjonering, kalles det! For hva?

Hehehe, mye jeg ikke vet om shipping. Takk skal du ha. Har lett etter vårt selskap på slike lister tidligere også og ikke forstått hvorfor det ikke var med på loversikten siden selskapet vårt burde vært på på slike oversikter. Interessant.

Posisjonerer seg vel for utbytte på 22-30 millioner kroner i utbytte for hvert kvartal i lang tid fremover. Amerikanerne er glade i gode utbytteaksjer, så tipper de har lang horisont