ARC er ute med en justert analyse på RECSI etter 3Q21-fremleggelsen. De oppretholder kjøp med TP 25 (28) og skriver følgende:

"REC Silicon ASA
Recommendation: Buy · Target Price: NOK 25.0 (28.0) · Current Share Price: NOK 13.71

The case for a reopening remains strong
Due to lower utilization/higher costs REC's Q3 came in a bit soft, but our estimate changes are quite neutral as costs are expected to normalize, while REC gradually should benefit from higher prices. Although the reopening case for Moses Lake remains strong, we would not be surprised if a decision could be pushed to mid-2022. That said, if the multi trillion USD welfare package should receive support and include solar manufacturing subsidies, it could happen sooner.

Somewhat weaker Butte EBITDA in Q3, but normalization expected
REC's Q3 report was characterized by lower Butte utilization and higher electricity costs, but we expect these effects to improve into next year (volumes to increase as logistical bottlenecks ease, lower energy prices through supply response at current high prices). Furthermore, we expect REC to achieve higher prices as its long-term fixed price contracts gradually will be replaced by more favourable contracts benefitting from current market tightness.

Solar value chain reorganization is overdue & silicon anodes are progressing
Global solar installations must increase 3.8x to be compliant with a net zero scenario, while polysilicon prices have approached USD 40/kg and China has started to curtail production due the high energy prices. From a US viewpoint, subsidizing ingot/wafer production should make total sense as it would create "green" manufacturing jobs, improve energy security and lower the full-cycle carbon footprint of solar PV itself, through less reliance on coal-fired polysilicon plants. In addition, note that the Mercedes/Daimler-backed battery company Farasis earlier this month said Group14's anode material meets automotive specification, increasing the credibility of Group14's business plan.

Small cut in TP as we have assumed higher costs as a precautionary measure
We lower our TP to NOK 25 (28) as we have as a precautionary measure implemented somewhat higher long-term electricity costs both related to Butte and ML (partly offset by assuming somewhat higher long-term polysilicon prices) as well as having delayed our base case reopening point to Q3 2023 (vs. Q1 previously). Our TP continues to be based on a 70% chance of a ML reopening.

Analyst:
Daniel Stenslet
Adrian Bergem"