SB1M er ute med en oppdatering på RECSI etter dagens nyhet, og de endrer anbefalingen til kjøp med TP 20,- (tidligere Sell med TP 13,-). De skriver blant annet følgende:

"Upgrade based on increased likelihood of ML reactivation, but still a way to go

Conclusion
We upgrade our RECSI recommendation to Buy (Sell) and increase our target price to NOK20/sh from NOK13/sh following i) data points suggesting higher probability of a ML re-opening due to the positive sentiment of a US solar supply chain, ii) our positive view of the Hanwha Solutions investment, and iii) higher probability of tax credits to REC Silicon and the rest of the solar supply chain from the SEMA Act.

PV manufacturer with investment in REC Silicon at NOK 20/sh
Today, REC Silicon announced that Aker Horizon, REC Silicon, and Hanwha Solutions have entered into a share issue agreement. Hanwha Solutions will subscribe for ~48.2m new shares in REC Silicon at NOK 20/sh, equivalent of ~NOK 964m. Additionally, Aker Horizon will sell ~21.9m existing shares to Hanwha Solutions at NOK 20/sh. After the competition, both Aker Horizon and Hanwha Solutions will own ~16.67 percent of the shares in REC Silicon. The transaction will strengthen REC Silicon's financial position and ensure that the company has the necessary resources to re-open Moses Lake in 2023. The deal is expected to be completed early in 2022. Hanwha Solutions has expressed a desire to be represented by a board member. Furthermore, the current chairman of the board of directors, Kjell Inge Røkke, plans to step down. Aker Horizon will nominate Kristian Monsen Røkke as the new chairman of the board.

According to the announcement, Hanwha Solutions is one of the leading global solar PV manufacturers and provides PV panels to residential markets through its wholly owned Q CELLS, which holds a 25 percent market share in the US. Currently, Hanwha Solution has a total cell capacity of 10 GW globally and module capacity of 1.7 GW in the US, which the US module capacity amounts to ~20-30% of the total Moses Lake capacity, dependent upon the wafer efficiency. We believe REC Silicon needs above 50-60% long-term utilization to support a re-opening. Therefore, we argue that the transaction supports the possibility of a re-opening of Moses Lake and the case of a regional US solar supply chain, which is essential for the re-opening of Moses Lake.

SEMA Act would grant higher normalized EBITDA in ML
Additionally, we see continued excitement in the US for incentivizing a US solar supply chain. The Solar Energy Manufacturing for America (SEMA) Act is currently being considered in the US Congress, aiming to encourage strategic investments in the US solar supply chain. Now, there is no US wafer production, which is needed to establish the US supply chain. There will be no incentives to invest in wafer production without the tax credits, meaning a lower probability of a solar-based ML re-opening. If the SEMA Act goes through, there will be tax credits to incentivize investing in a solar supply chain. We believe we won't see any announcement of a re-opening of Moses Lake until the SEMA act goes through, as it's risky to make an investment decision before announcing tax credits.

Additionally, REC Silicon believes the SEMA Act would give REC Silicon tax credits of ~USD3/kg of solar-grade polysilicon until 2028 (70% in 2029, 35% in 2030, and 0% in 2031 onwards). The tax credits are refundable, meaning they can be returned in cash. Assuming 80% utilization in Moses Lake from solar polysilicon without any tax credits to RECSI, we estimate a normalized EBITDA of some USD 65m from ML, corresponding to NOK 15.9/sh. However, if we assume that the cash cost would effectively be reduced with USD 3/kg from the tax credits, we would see an EBITDA of ~USD 108m, corresponding to NOK 22.6/sh using the same valuation framework as our September IoC. Note that the effectively P&L changes due to the cash credits are uncertain. As the SEMA Act has not gone through yet, we argue some uncertainties to the NOK 22.6/sh valuation. Additionally, we see several risk factors to the utilization and probability of an ML re-opening without the SEMA Act. Hence, we increase our target price to NOK 20/sh from NOK 13/sh, effectively incorporating the higher probability of an ML re-opening, tax credits and US encouragement of a US supply chain.

Vidar Lyngvær & Jonas Fremming
Equity Research"

Jeg vil tippe at dette er den første i en rekke av oppgraderinger da både PAS og ARC med all sannsynlighet vil oppdatere sine kursmål om ikke alt for lenge.