Dette er EV basert på forventning til kontantstrøm og trolig det beste estimatet laget av de skarpeste hodene innen finansanalyse. Legger ved DOF sin egen beskrivelse av markedet ( Om noen trenger underlag til hvorfor Scenario 1 er relevant ): Fra side 37 årsrapport. The market outlook for 2022 has improved, mainly based on new COVID variants are being contained and lighter measures being enforced. However, the geopolitical picture encourages a more conservative view to the otherwise promising 2022 outlook. The oil price has seen levels above USD 100/ bbl in the first 3 months, with a steep rise in March, based on the market’s response to the geopolitical instability and potential supply challenges. Based on external analysis, the Company observes that the oil prices are likely to continue to climb, and the oil and gas macroenvironment continues to be dynamic. Gas demand had a strong rebound in 2021, but growth is expected to moderately increase in 2022, up by 2.2% y-o-y. Further gas demand gains in 2022 are expected to be strengthened by ongoing economic improvements, as well
as coal-to-gas switching. However, exceptionally high gas prices and geopolitical instability may temper demand gains. Total offshore capex is expected to rise 1.3% with both offshore deep-water and offshore shelf adding 14.2%. The five-year CAGR for capital expenditures towards 2026 is estimated at 4% with growth in all supply segments over the five-year period, according to Rystad Energy. Rig market conditions are improving with utilisation and day rates having now risen past start-20 levels. The outlooks are optimistic with positive sentiment that the utilisation and rate gain, seen in 2021, can be built upon in 2022. Rig demand is projected to rise by 9% this year to stand at 522 units at end-22 (85% utilisation). Mid-term demand is projected to rise by a further 8% in 2023, with utilisation reaching 89% towards end of 2023. The overall offshore vessel market is expected to increase towards 2030. Overall offshore oil and gas is expected to slowly increase towards 2027, before declining towards the end of the decade. Regional growth markets that do not adhere to the curve are South America, Middle East and Africa that all deliver considerable growth. Offshore wind will continue to grow from 2025 towards 2030, taking up an increasingly larger share of the total global vessel demand. Spending on offshore installation segments is expected to increase by an average of 32% from 2021 to 2022. The pressure from a growing oil and gas price with growing offshore wind capex might increase the demand for AHTS and subsea vessels on short, medium and long term.