GOGL -Vi er i startgropen i en supersyklus (3)
Denne tråden er stengt for nye innlegg.
21.06.2022 kl 13:03
Automatisk lukket grunnet trådens størrelse. (Beklager.)
Lager en tråd, da forumet ikke takler store tråder.
Her er link til den forrige tråden
https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/140660/view/4239866
Her er link til den forrige tråden
https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/140660/view/4239866
Redigert 09.02.2022 kl 20:58
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nman
12.02.2022 kl 07:53
9169
Kinesiske myndigheter forsøker å prate jernmalmprisene ned igjen, men:
The problem for the authorities in Beijing is that iron ore prices seem perfectly capable of rallying on actual supply and demand fundamentals.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-fundamentals-appear-at-odds-with-beijings-lower-price-wish/
The problem for the authorities in Beijing is that iron ore prices seem perfectly capable of rallying on actual supply and demand fundamentals.
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/iron-ore-fundamentals-appear-at-odds-with-beijings-lower-price-wish/
Golden Goat
12.02.2022 kl 12:58
8805
Stjeler denne for å holde litt liv i tråden mens det er helg:
$SBLK $GOGL $EGLE $SHIP
As we sail to new highs, I'm sure some of you are considering taking profit. However, the situation is still incredibly bullish, and here's why we can look forward to a great rest of the year.
First, Q1 is generally where the stock tanks due to the BDI collapsing. The opposite is happening right now, signaling that sentiment and conditions are turning favorable. Q2+Q3+Q4 are usually all excellent so really we are in for a bull run with little significant pullback for the rest of the year.
Secondly, we have multiple catalysts lined up.
1. Olympics ending = China's Blue Sky policy ending which means steel mills reopen and start production again.
2. Summer is ending soon for the southern hemisphere (Brazil, Argentina, etc.) which means rainfall will slow down which means more exports.
3. The BDI is recovering sooner than expected. This means that Q1 will be better than expected which is obviously bullish for both dividends and earnings per share.
4. Q4 earnings report next week which is going to be record breaking and should send us up significantly.
5. I am hesitant to use this word because it's commonly associated with memes, but yes, I do believe the possibility of a squeeze is possible. Not a short squeeze, but a supply/demand squeeze where there is too much global demand for vessels to meet it.
Combining all of these factors, I believe we are entering the initial stages of a multi-year super cycle. Dry bulk stocks could double from today's prices and still be undervalued. I do not know what tomorrow will bring, or what next week will bring, but I do know that the sector is entering both a fundamental and structural bull cycle.
$SBLK $GOGL $EGLE $SHIP
As we sail to new highs, I'm sure some of you are considering taking profit. However, the situation is still incredibly bullish, and here's why we can look forward to a great rest of the year.
First, Q1 is generally where the stock tanks due to the BDI collapsing. The opposite is happening right now, signaling that sentiment and conditions are turning favorable. Q2+Q3+Q4 are usually all excellent so really we are in for a bull run with little significant pullback for the rest of the year.
Secondly, we have multiple catalysts lined up.
1. Olympics ending = China's Blue Sky policy ending which means steel mills reopen and start production again.
2. Summer is ending soon for the southern hemisphere (Brazil, Argentina, etc.) which means rainfall will slow down which means more exports.
3. The BDI is recovering sooner than expected. This means that Q1 will be better than expected which is obviously bullish for both dividends and earnings per share.
4. Q4 earnings report next week which is going to be record breaking and should send us up significantly.
5. I am hesitant to use this word because it's commonly associated with memes, but yes, I do believe the possibility of a squeeze is possible. Not a short squeeze, but a supply/demand squeeze where there is too much global demand for vessels to meet it.
Combining all of these factors, I believe we are entering the initial stages of a multi-year super cycle. Dry bulk stocks could double from today's prices and still be undervalued. I do not know what tomorrow will bring, or what next week will bring, but I do know that the sector is entering both a fundamental and structural bull cycle.
thypoon
12.02.2022 kl 13:38
8734
Martin Armstrong sin socrates algoritme viser rally i bdi indeksen fremover!
Golden Goat
13.02.2022 kl 09:43
8126
Ang. Q1 performance:
Golden Ocean's top manager believes in "extremely lucrative" dry cargo despite fierce rating dives A worse-than-expected start to 2022 for dry cargo is far from enough to change the expectations of Golden Ocean and CEO Ulrik Andersen. The market will still be lucrative and may be so well into 2024, he tells ShippingWatch.
Golden Ocean's top manager Ulrik Andersen still believes that the dry cargo markets will be good for the shipping companies all the way into 2024, despite a gloomy start to 2022.
When ShippingWatch spoke with Ulrik Andersen in October, the capesize rates at that time were around $ 60,000 a day, while the dry cargo shipping companies could bring home large sums of money with low breakeven levels on the ships.
It stands in stark contrast to today's image. According to Clarkson's Platou, rates are significantly lower today, and it appears from the latest report that “Cape rates begin the week in the same rent as last week, with a decrease of 6.2 percent. today, and is currently at $ 6,900 per. day".
Despite the large dip in rates, which is a typical start to the year for dry cargo, Ulrik Andersen stands firm on his forecast from the autumn.
Looking at the Cape market at the moment, it is worse than expected. However, this does not change our expectation that this year will be extremely lucrative for dry cargo traders.
ULRIK ANDERSEN, CEO, GOLDEN OCEAN
"Our view has not changed since October," Ulrik Andersen told ShippingWatch, adding:
"We believe that it will be attractive to be a dry cargo carrier through 2023 and thus into 2024. This does not change today's market."
Weaker than expected
However, the top manager still admits that he had not expected to see the rates as low as is the case right now.
“We expected the quarter to be weak, but admittedly, looking at the Cape market at the moment, it is worse than expected. However, this does not change our expectation that this year will be extremely lucrative for the dry cargo shipping companies, ”he says.
Ulrik Andersen refers to the fact that it is not abnormal with a weak first quarter in dry cargo. Most dry cargo shipping companies prepare for it by taking on fixed-paying contracts, he adds.
"When the market is weak, it is too late to act, and as we believe in a recovery, we accept today's rates and move on. However, we are in a comfortable position as last year we took more than 50 per cent. of our fleet on fixed contracts, ”he says.
It is partly expectations of a reasonable growth in demand that give reason for optimism in Ulrik Andersen. Partly a low fleet growth.
“What further supports this is that the dry cargo fleet will not function efficiently due to the continuing disruptions in the supply chain, primarily caused by the corona. In addition, new regulations from the IMO on emissions will force the fleet to slow down, which puts further pressure on the supply side. ”
Nor is the uncertainty about developments in China something that in itself "disturbs our positive view", it reads.
Expected start
Several major factors have sent dry cargo rates down from the start of 2022, Arrows head of research Burak Cetinok said on Friday.
The fact that few new buildings are ordered despite very good earnings has only improved our estimates
JOAKIM HANNISDAHL, CEO AND CO-FOUNDER, CLEAVES ASSET MANAGEMENT
He pointed to Indonesia's export ban on coal, extreme weather conditions in Brazil and not least the imminent Chinese New Year and Winter Olympics, as well as conditions that have put pressure on the industry.
However, the declines in rates are in line with expectations, says CEO and co-founder of Cleaves Asset Management Joakim Hannisdahl. Like Golden Ocean and Ulrik Andersen, the company has therefore not changed its forecasts since October, he explains to ShippingWatch.
"In addition to the normal seasonal variation, it is the Olympics in Beijing in February, where the government closes the industry to get good TV pictures," he mentions as a factor that pushes rates.
Joakim Hannisdahl also does not expect that the rate falls will last much longer. He expects to see better rates as early as February.
“From 2017 until today, we have believed that 2021/22/23 could be good years for dry cargo shipping. The fact that few new buildings are ordered despite very good earnings has only improved our estimates, ”says Hannisdahl.
Also at Golden Ocean, Ulrik Andersen sees a strengthening occur when the celebrations from the Chinese New Year are over, and the last person has reached the finish line for the Winter Olympics.
"We expect an improvement after the Chinese New Year and the Olympics. At that time, in
Golden Ocean's top manager believes in "extremely lucrative" dry cargo despite fierce rating dives A worse-than-expected start to 2022 for dry cargo is far from enough to change the expectations of Golden Ocean and CEO Ulrik Andersen. The market will still be lucrative and may be so well into 2024, he tells ShippingWatch.
Golden Ocean's top manager Ulrik Andersen still believes that the dry cargo markets will be good for the shipping companies all the way into 2024, despite a gloomy start to 2022.
When ShippingWatch spoke with Ulrik Andersen in October, the capesize rates at that time were around $ 60,000 a day, while the dry cargo shipping companies could bring home large sums of money with low breakeven levels on the ships.
It stands in stark contrast to today's image. According to Clarkson's Platou, rates are significantly lower today, and it appears from the latest report that “Cape rates begin the week in the same rent as last week, with a decrease of 6.2 percent. today, and is currently at $ 6,900 per. day".
Despite the large dip in rates, which is a typical start to the year for dry cargo, Ulrik Andersen stands firm on his forecast from the autumn.
Looking at the Cape market at the moment, it is worse than expected. However, this does not change our expectation that this year will be extremely lucrative for dry cargo traders.
ULRIK ANDERSEN, CEO, GOLDEN OCEAN
"Our view has not changed since October," Ulrik Andersen told ShippingWatch, adding:
"We believe that it will be attractive to be a dry cargo carrier through 2023 and thus into 2024. This does not change today's market."
Weaker than expected
However, the top manager still admits that he had not expected to see the rates as low as is the case right now.
“We expected the quarter to be weak, but admittedly, looking at the Cape market at the moment, it is worse than expected. However, this does not change our expectation that this year will be extremely lucrative for the dry cargo shipping companies, ”he says.
Ulrik Andersen refers to the fact that it is not abnormal with a weak first quarter in dry cargo. Most dry cargo shipping companies prepare for it by taking on fixed-paying contracts, he adds.
"When the market is weak, it is too late to act, and as we believe in a recovery, we accept today's rates and move on. However, we are in a comfortable position as last year we took more than 50 per cent. of our fleet on fixed contracts, ”he says.
It is partly expectations of a reasonable growth in demand that give reason for optimism in Ulrik Andersen. Partly a low fleet growth.
“What further supports this is that the dry cargo fleet will not function efficiently due to the continuing disruptions in the supply chain, primarily caused by the corona. In addition, new regulations from the IMO on emissions will force the fleet to slow down, which puts further pressure on the supply side. ”
Nor is the uncertainty about developments in China something that in itself "disturbs our positive view", it reads.
Expected start
Several major factors have sent dry cargo rates down from the start of 2022, Arrows head of research Burak Cetinok said on Friday.
The fact that few new buildings are ordered despite very good earnings has only improved our estimates
JOAKIM HANNISDAHL, CEO AND CO-FOUNDER, CLEAVES ASSET MANAGEMENT
He pointed to Indonesia's export ban on coal, extreme weather conditions in Brazil and not least the imminent Chinese New Year and Winter Olympics, as well as conditions that have put pressure on the industry.
However, the declines in rates are in line with expectations, says CEO and co-founder of Cleaves Asset Management Joakim Hannisdahl. Like Golden Ocean and Ulrik Andersen, the company has therefore not changed its forecasts since October, he explains to ShippingWatch.
"In addition to the normal seasonal variation, it is the Olympics in Beijing in February, where the government closes the industry to get good TV pictures," he mentions as a factor that pushes rates.
Joakim Hannisdahl also does not expect that the rate falls will last much longer. He expects to see better rates as early as February.
“From 2017 until today, we have believed that 2021/22/23 could be good years for dry cargo shipping. The fact that few new buildings are ordered despite very good earnings has only improved our estimates, ”says Hannisdahl.
Also at Golden Ocean, Ulrik Andersen sees a strengthening occur when the celebrations from the Chinese New Year are over, and the last person has reached the finish line for the Winter Olympics.
"We expect an improvement after the Chinese New Year and the Olympics. At that time, in
Redigert 13.02.2022 kl 09:55
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MarineroMarine
13.02.2022 kl 14:48
7745
Generelt om shipping, men bulk nevnes som bra sted å være i 2022. Lyd først fra 01.40: https://twitter.com/mintzmyer/status/1492263443059122177?s=21
KJEPET
13.02.2022 kl 16:53
7569
Takker Geita. Det er mye slik vi her inne også ser det , og har vært inne på. Vi får si som Ulrik "the stars are aligning" :-)
Golden Goat
13.02.2022 kl 22:28
7008
Helt korrekt! Det som kan bedre stjernekonstillasjonen ytterligere er om tank kan få seg en etterlengtet stor opptur. Da kan de sette inn en bestillingsbølge og låse verftene ut 2026 slik at ihjelbestilling i tørrbulk tidligst kan skje i 2027. Sammen med sjokk tonnasjereduksjon neste år (som følge av IMO2023, EEXI/CII), tror jeg gjerne at tørrbulk kan få på seg syvmilsstøvlene likt som container gjorde i fjor. Særdeles spennende tider. Jeg søker å utvide posisjonen min med 10-15% til uka om vi får en dipp, evt. uansett, alt etter hvor utolmodig jeg er. Ikke lett å sitte på cash når alle piler peker den ene veien.
bankersen
14.02.2022 kl 06:29
6705
Sitter med en god del cash enda, situasjonen i Ukraina kan fort gjøre at de blir plassert denne uken. Børsen faller som regel på krigsfrykt så stiger den når krigen er igang eller fare over. Skulle det bli langvarig så vil noen av de 700 skipene som farter de Ukrainske og Russiske se etter andre jobber andre steder, de som tar risikoen får nok et heftig risiko påslag. Det spørs også om det blir umulig å få laster på/av i perioder. Foreløpig går alt som normalt og den store russike militær øvelsen til sjøs hindrer ikke den kommesielle skipstrafikken. Det kan fort bli volatilt denne uken så best å feste setebeltene.
Ukraina eksportere store mengder jordbruksprodukter og 38mill tonn jernmalm.
Ukraina eksportere store mengder jordbruksprodukter og 38mill tonn jernmalm.
Redigert 14.02.2022 kl 06:33
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nman
14.02.2022 kl 08:04
6535
Leveringsdato 2025!! (For to nye gasstankere)
https://splash247.com/wanhua-taps-jiangnan-for-ethane-carriers/
https://splash247.com/wanhua-taps-jiangnan-for-ethane-carriers/
Bennyfyfasan
14.02.2022 kl 08:18
6496
Jeg tok en råsjans på fredag før lunsj. Jeg realiserte en kjapp gevinst i GOGL og gikk inn i oppdrett for fullt igjen nå som lakseprisen gikk opp til rekordhøyder. Jeg deler det FØR børsen åpner slik at jeg ikke skal få på meg at jeg backtrader.
MEN - jeg skal være inne igjen i morgen. GSF legger blant annet resultat frem i morgen. GOGL på onsdag. Klarer jeg å ri alle hestene? :-)
MEN - jeg skal være inne igjen i morgen. GSF legger blant annet resultat frem i morgen. GOGL på onsdag. Klarer jeg å ri alle hestene? :-)
fattigstakkar
14.02.2022 kl 09:17
6249
Da fikk jeg dippen under 100. Regnet med at det ville utløse noe stop loss, så legger kjøprsordrene et stykke under 100.
Redigert 14.02.2022 kl 09:27
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Realistoptimist
14.02.2022 kl 09:32
6247
Jeg solgte meg ut på torsdag pga skyhøy RSI. Det trumfer visst alt, selv om alt ser lysende ut, og q4 legges frem om et par dager...
fattigstakkar
14.02.2022 kl 09:34
6234
Dette skyldes ikke RSI men kun generell børsnedgang pga krigsfrykt.
fattigstakkar
14.02.2022 kl 09:46
6146
Tror97- 98 er en god inngang. Med stigende dollarkurs tilsvarer sluttkurs i USA på fredag 101,35, og usikkerheten knyttet til Ukraina har ikke blitt større siden fredag kveld, siden det var talen til Biden som fikk børsen til å stupe.
Golden Goat
14.02.2022 kl 10:23
5982
Tviler på noen særlig langtidseffekt fra ukrainsk eksport, men hvis det har en effekt så ser den ut til å være positiv utfra komposisjonen [1] av deres eksportvarer. Ser ut til å kunne gi en kortsiktig impuls (med positivt fortegn) på råvarepriser. De eksporterer 5m tonn kull, 45m tonn malm og drøye 16m tonn med stål pr annum pr 2019 (prisene er blitt høyere og disse tallene vil nok ha økt siden den gang) [1]. Skulle det ukrainske stålet fjernes helt fra markedet så er førsteordens effekten, som nevnt en positiv impuls i stålpris. Andre ordens effekter er; økt etterspørsel av innsatsfaktorene til stål: jern og kull. Et 1t stål krever 1,6t jernmalm og 0,8t kull. Dvs. 25.6t og 12.8t henholdsvis i malm og kull for å erstatte den ukrainske ståltilførselen i markedet. Dette tar kun hensyn til storbulkvarene, implikasjonene på korn og frø er jeg mindre kjent med, men regner med at dette må føres ut fra de Latin-Amerikanske stater.
[1] https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/infrastructure/maritime/
[1] https://ukraineinvest.gov.ua/industries/infrastructure/maritime/
Golden Goat
14.02.2022 kl 10:33
5921
Pilteri skrev Noen som har FFA tall i dag?
https://www.braemarscreen.com/
Feb 13125 -550
Mar 19750 -1050
Q2 26750 -925
Q3 30875 -750
Cal23 20750 -500
Feb 13125 -550
Mar 19750 -1050
Q2 26750 -925
Q3 30875 -750
Cal23 20750 -500
bankersen
14.02.2022 kl 10:52
5860
Jeg bruker dagen i dag til å fyll på litt Gogl og andre aksjer som faller. I et lengere perspektiv viser det seg alltid lurt å kjøpe aksjer på krigsfrykt da kriger ikke påvirker selskapenes inntekter over tid (heller motsatt for råvarer/frakt) de blir bare litt billigere å kjøpe pga. frykten.
KJEPET
14.02.2022 kl 11:50
5647
I disse tallene ligger grunnlaget for din og min rikdom de neste 3 årene innen drybulk:-)
https://twitter.com/joeriwestland/status/1493168973772464135/photo/2
https://twitter.com/joeriwestland/status/1493168973772464135/photo/2
hogan
14.02.2022 kl 11:57
5669
Farten skal ned på skip neste år, tilsvarer 6-7%, så negativ flåtevekst neste år, med oljepris på 94us senker de også farten pga det
Hardingen
14.02.2022 kl 12:53
5429
Today: 14,888 -509
MTD avg 12,041
YTD avg 12,576 vs 2021 YTD 18,536
Feb-Dec FFA 26,000
Soft start to the week.
China January loans record high.
Fuel spread at USD 210.
2020
MTD avg 12,041
YTD avg 12,576 vs 2021 YTD 18,536
Feb-Dec FFA 26,000
Soft start to the week.
China January loans record high.
Fuel spread at USD 210.
2020
The Godfather
14.02.2022 kl 17:09
5068
Krig kan gi tørrlastboom
https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shipping/2022/02/14/7819290/krig-kan-gi-torrlastboom
https://finansavisen.no/nyheter/shipping/2022/02/14/7819290/krig-kan-gi-torrlastboom
Pilteri
14.02.2022 kl 17:16
5060
Da er kinesisk nyttår over. Ol er over om 6 dager og kina starter opp igjen. Da ser det ut som at vi sitter greit i det uansett utfall i ukraina men håper selvsagt at det ikke blir krig. Da skal jeg heller greie meg med mindre....
Golden Goat
14.02.2022 kl 17:37
5006
Produksjonsforbudet fra blue sky policy varer til to dager etter paralympics, altså 16. Mars.
bankersen
14.02.2022 kl 17:41
5088
Det ble kjøpt både Gøggen ned mot 98 og i GNK 17.63 når den åpnet ned i USA. FFA kraftig ned i dag så måtte kjøpe noe BDRY også. Cape, Pmax, SMAX er jo bare helt strålende til at en nettopp er ferdig med CNY og OL. Det renner penger inn i tørrbulk selskapene og nå er balansene blitt vakre, det er bare lene seg tilbake å se utbyttekontoen fylles opp.
fattigstakkar
14.02.2022 kl 17:43
5082
Golden Goat skrev Noen som har tekst, eller kan gengi hovedpoengene?
Det dreier seg om korneksporten fra Ukraina som i stedet må fraktes fra USA og Sør-Amerika. Gjelder primært mindre bulkskip.
fattigstakkar
14.02.2022 kl 17:56
5212
Lot meg inspirere og kjøpte BDRY for første gang jeg også. Takk for tips :)
Pilteri
14.02.2022 kl 18:41
5069
Golden Goat skrev Noen som har tekst, eller kan gengi hovedpoengene?
Ikke bare informasjonskrig mellem usa og russland. Denne overskriften fra Hellenic ....."Russia-Ukraine war to crash dry bulk rates"....vet snart ikke hvem man skal tro på. Nissen kanskje?
Golden Goat
14.02.2022 kl 18:47
5056
Takker og bukker. Det som så ut til å være tilfelle i starten av fjoråret var at småbulk var med på å dra med seg storbulk (to småbulkcargo går inn i en capesize i de tilfeller der havnene tillater det). Vi får se hvordan situasjonen i Ukraina utvikler seg. Personlig tenker jeg det er en gigantisk 'nothing'-burger inntil det motsatte er bevist.
KJEPET
14.02.2022 kl 19:57
4859
I krig trengs det stål, og det fort i usikkert farvann. Skulle vi få krigsrater i tillegg til alt det som peker i favør tørrlast nå, så må man se å få utvidet plassen på VPS-kontoen sin litt kjapt. Det kan det blir trangt ellers :-)
Shippingballs
15.02.2022 kl 05:06
4384
Vi får vel håpe det ikke blir krig. Jeg er svært fornøyd med fortjenesten uten krig jeg.